The Open Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5 units):

Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Only one player (Tiger Woods, 2000) has won both the U.S. and British Opens in the same year since Tom Watson in 1982. However, it had been done once in every ten years before then, so maybe it is not so preposterous. Royal St. George's is a very quirky course with blind shots and drives that land in the middle of the fairway and bounce into the rough. The patience of a U.S. Open champion will be required this week. Winner of the last major or not, he is in the form of his life with 11 top-10 finishes from 16 starts this year, plus he did finish 4th, 4th, 10th from 1997 to 1999 so he can plays links golf.

Darren Clarke to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets and BetInternet
Clarke was brought on links golf, so this does represent his best chance of securing a major. He has finished 2nd (1997) and 3rd (2001) already and could go better this year now that he has improved his putting. He had been "putting like a blind man" according to his manager, Andrew Chandler, so after the U.S. Open he spent a few days with the putting guru, Harold Swash. Now he has a new putter and a new technique and he has been rewarded with top-5 finishes in his last two events. This course threw up a British winner in 1985 and Clarke looks the best-placed to be one this time around.

Davis Love to win 40/1 e.w. @ Tote (6 places)
Large price, plus the extra place, for one of the favourites for the two previous majors this year. He has been faced with a family crisis following the suicide of his brother-in-law and manager, Jeff Knight, in May who was under investigation from the FBI for stealing as much as $1 million from accounts that he managed for Love. But this family crisis has been reflected in his odds for this event which have been steadily rising since May. But this price is too high. One of the things that his late father taught him was calmness in the eye of the storm. He displayed such a strength en route to winning three times this season and it was just as evident when he finished 7th in his first event after the family tragedy. In a new country and in an event in which he has prospered in recent years ? no worse than 21st in the last six Opens ? Love could be making new headlines next week.
 

kjls04202

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With you on Davis Love Stan, pity he's only 33/1 with The Tote now. What about Thomas Bjorn, inconsistent I know but capable on a good week. Also like Garcia as he showed some sign of life last time out.
What about some advice on staking? If say Love is 33/1 first 6 a quarter with Tote but 40/1 first 5 a quarter elsewhere. I have always favoured splitting my bet say ?20.00 each way becomes ?10.00 each way with each firm. I have always found it a difficult poser and never really knew the right answer. Is 8.25 a place first six better than 10.00 a place first five. I know the win part.What would all you forumites do?
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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outrights to place (top 6) @ skybet
Love 7/1
Verplank 20/1

*Love 8/1 available top 5 at 365

Note of interest:
No american finished in top 5 last year and only 6 of 25 players that finished or tied for top 5 in last 4 years have been americans.
 
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milpalm

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Placed a couple of bets a while back, Toms at 40/1 and Harrington at 33/1. Both players have shown a liking for links golf and are in decent form. Added Clarke at 33/1 this week. If he has sorted his putting he could go very close.

72-hole matchups:
Love over Mickelson 1.85 Centrebet
Leonard over Parnevik 1.73 Unibet

Also think Angela Stanford is overpriced at 50/1 with Centrebet in the LPGA event. Paddypower go 14/1. Stanford is no 1 in Stan's current form ranking.
 
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Stanley

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Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Robert Allenby to beat Charles Howell -111 @ William Hill
Opposing Howell whose "full-power" game is ill-suited to links golf and has not been able to reproduce his form of late 2002. Allenby is a good wind player with a ball flight that he can control. He is playing much better than Howell on the PGA Tour and his advantage is strengthened on this course.

Bob Estes to beat Charles Howell -110 @ Bet365
Estes is another good wind player and has used it to good effect in finishing in the top-25 in his last two British Opens. He is also playing better than Howell, having recorded two top-3 finishes in May/June and should feature in the top-25 again this year.

Chris DiMarco to beat Charles Howell -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Also siding with DiMarco against Howell as he is another who can control his ball flight and has experience of playing in this event. He has shown good form this year with seven top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour and while he won't finish that high this week, he should make the cut to ensure the matchup win.

Stewart Cink to beat Chad Campbell -116 @ Pinnacle
Opposing Campbell who also has no experience of links golf and in his first attempt to play in the U.K., he shot 76-77 around Loch Lomond last week to miss the cut by a very long way. He may have had a good season on the PGA Tour, but links golf requires experience and that is something that Cink has got. He has made the cut in four of five British Opens.

Jerry Kelly to beat Chad Campbell -139 @ William Hill
Also siding with Kelly even though he was playing in the Greater Milwaukee Open last week. His form is good - he was 3rd in the Western Open two weeks ago and should have at least matched that finish last week, but the pressure of being the home player was visibly straining him. He has two year's experience in this event and finished 28th last year. In this form, he could repeat that performance.

Peter Lonard to beat Nick O'Hern -111 @ BetandWin
Expecting Lonard to have a good week and he showed good form when finishing 5th at Loch Lomond last week. That is anything but a links course, but he can also point to a 14th place finish at Muirfield. In fact, in four British Open starts, he has finished in the top-50 on each occasion. Last week he finished ahead of O'Hern as he has done in all three common European Tour events over the past year. This should be a repeat.
 

LARGE222

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SORRY MEN I DONT HAVE TIME FOR A LENGTHY DIATRIBE URCHIN IS HAVING A FEW PROBLEMS



LATE FOR THE GOOG NUMBERS BUT HERE GOES
CCLARKE -131 AGAINST GARCIA
A JOKE LINE
RIGHT PRICE IS 50 RANGE 1.5 UNITS


K PERRY OVER HOWELL -47 A DAY LATE WITH THIS NUMBER I UNIT


ROSE 1/3 UNIT OVER FATSCH


GOOD LUCK GENTLEMEN
 

Stanley

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Adding (1.5 units):

Sergio Garcia to beat Justin Rose -111 @ BetandWin
Garcia's season has been hindered by swing changes, but there are signs that it is bearing fruit. He made his first in four events at the U.S. Open where he finished 35th and he was right in contention when finishing 4th at the Buick Classic the following week. He has finished in the top-10 in the last two British Open's and is able to manage the ball flight extremely well, which makes him ideal for links golf. Rose has a lot to do in that department and while his missed cut in the European Open was not a concern, his second missed cut in two weeks at the Scottish Open on a course on which he had previously played well, was certainly worrying. He had been widely tipped as a strong candidate for this Open, but his preparations have been far from ideal.

Justin Leonard to beat Justin Rose -125 @ Expekt (-135 @ Carib)
Also siding with Leonard against Rose. Leonard Open credentials are excellent - he won at Royal Troon in 1997 and lost in the playoff to Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. This year, he is playing even better - he has won once (Honda Classic) and stormed to 2nd place with a final round 61 at the Colonial. He is a strong candidate for this week's event.

Colin Montgomerie to beat Bernhard Langer -110 @ BlueSq
These two shared the Volvo Masters title last November and while Monty won the following week (TCL Classic) and has finished in the top-10 three times this season, Langer has secured just one top-20 finish since that joint win. He has a decent record in this event, but looks too out-of-form to be a contender.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Been a bad week to be busy and not got to take much of look yet. Was going to load the wagons vs Mick but data on Lyle got me thinking what if he try to play this couses with long irons.Don't know if his ego would let him.

Stanford? Clive! Who is that? Did you mean to put that in U.S. womens Open thread?/:lol:
 

Stanley

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I haven't done so with my already numerous official plays, but I think it will be a good week to load up against Mickelson. He is paired with Adam Scott for the first two rounds and if his pairing with John Daly earlier this year (can't remember the event) is anything to go by, he will become embroiled in a long-driving contest until he heads home on Friday night ;)
 

sports student

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72 hole group (365)

Perry 3-1 over Mickelson, Leonard, Rose and Garcia

Obviously Perry is in tremendous form going against a group that nobody is doing that well. Do not know how Perry will play across the sea but Stan's compatibility table has him rated highest in this group. Think it is worth the odds I'm getting.
 
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Clive

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DTB...was just replying to Milpalm!!

No huge bets for me in the Open (as usual)...backed a few outsiders on betfair to trade back later..one was O'Hern at 800/1+ and have already traded him back at 540 for a free bet.

Last Open at Sandwich was the first event I attended...got very sunburnt and it wasn't even sunny...the breeze there is very deceptive..the cruel part of me is looking forward to the coverage!
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Was just teasing ya Clive:)

Got a few but but don't have a lot of data on these Euro's I do on U.S. so kinda going by seat of pants.

Prop @ Oly
Mick to miss cut +250
72 holes
Goose -111 over Mick @ Boyles
Monty -111 over Mick @ Sportingbet
Bjorn +105 over Casey @ Oly
Lonard -111 over Forsyth @ Sia
N Price -125 over K Perry @ Sportingbet

Not much comment on these with exception of Kenny who does not like to travel especially overseas as this is his 1st time I can remember.Going back a year he intended to go to B.O. but changed mind enroute and turned around and came home to surprise eveyone and was the one surprised if you will recall.;)
 

Stanley

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Adding outright plays (1.5 units):

Gary Evans to win 'Top Great Britain & Ireland Player' 40/1 e.w. @ Coral
Missed the 50/1 that had been available at Stan James, but this price still represents good value for a player who has finished in the top-5 in the last two weeks against good quality fields and finished 5th at Muirfield. He could be the reigning Open champion, but for a disastrous lost ball on his penultimate hole. It could him a two-shot penalty and he finished one shot out of the four-man playoff. He has, however, maintained his form and although he did lose it in five poor tournaments in May/June, he has shown in the last two weeks he is right back in form. A large price for one who will relish the return of this event.

Sergio Garcia to win 'Top European Player' 9/2 @ BetInternet
Siding with the favourite in this market. As already highlighted, the rewards to his swing changes has been becoming more visible and he appears to be competitive on the PGA Tour again. He remains an excellent ball-striker and plays well on links courses. He does struggle on the slower greens found on European parkland courses. It was no surprise that his first professional victory came in the 1999 Irish Open at Druids Glen or that his victory in the British Amateur Championship was at Muirfield (1998). This is a thin market with only 21 players and of these, only the out-of-sorts Thomas Bjorn has equivalent links credentials.

Peter Lonard to win 'Top Rest of the World Player' 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Another player who has already been highlighted as a good links and wind player. He finished 14th last year and was impressive in finishing 5th at Loch Lomond last week. He has established himself as one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour and he should be in the frame this week. The hard, fast conditions should certainly suit experienced links players, particularly Australians, of whom there were two in last year's playoff. Els should win this category, but Lonard should not be too far behind.

Scott Verplank to win 'Top U.S. Player' 50/1 e.w. @ William Hill
With 28/1 the best price for Verplank in the 'w/o Woods' category (the 40/1 at Stan James has now gone), the 50/1 with Woods seems much better value. Tiger has already displayed his reservations the course, arguing that luck will be a big factor this week, something that he also shares with Jack Nicklaus, so he looks far from dominant this week and Verplank could certainly finish ahead of the unhappy favourite. This will be a course for grinders who have the patience to deal with the hard, fast conditions to alien to most PGA Tour courses. Verplank is in this category and while he can claim three decent finishes in the last four Opens, he is also in very good form. He has finished in the top-20 in eight of his last eleven starts, should have won the HP Classic of New Orleans and finished in the top-10 of the Players Championship, the Masters and the U.S. Open. A repeat could see him win this category with or without Tiger Woods.
 
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