The Open Championship

[Another Steve]

Where were the Caddies

Where were the Caddies

Wonder what Lance (Parny's cadd)? was doing. They should be keeping their own card. Mark looked strong, bad break.

Ernie over Phil - Not the way I thought it would be, started out that way, but that's why they play 18. Ernie birdies 18 for an easy Win, Ok... A Win.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd 1-2
bjorn/forcythe win
parry/goggin loss
harrinton/weir loss

Clive If I was an official would have give Roe a mulligan on that which I understand they can do. I sure like rules over there of drop area by stands,saves lots of time.
Sergio got to be packin biggest rabbitts foot I ever saw. Where on earth can a person hit one fairway (missed most by 20 or 30 yards) and shoot 1 under. Can't believe he called official over to try and get drop from rough--what a puss:lol:

Good pairings tomorrow Singh/Tiger---no love lost there
Bjorn/Love should get along well.
Perry/Garcia Mr Obscurity vs Hey look at me.

 

[sports student]

at this point +4.55 units with group bet left having Perry at 3-1

4th round at 5 dimes:

Beem -118 over Woosnam
Evans-115 over Appleby
Parry -122 over Daly

parlay at bet365 pays +141
Estes -1/2 over Mednick
Weir -1/2 over Murphy


Good luck tomorrow everybody. DTB I know you do not like the ties lose matchups. From your experience how much do you think the 1/2 stroke is worth- if you were willing to give -120 on an 18 hole match what would you think would be an equivalent line if you were giving 1/2 a stroke ? Would be interested in everybody's opinion on this who wants to share their expertise. Thanks

 

[lowell]

4th rd matchups

4th rd matchups

love-bjorn,perry-garcia,singh-woods,mick-goosen,jacobsen-lonard,price-eels,weir-clarke,woods-garcia,singh-perry,couples-campbell,price-mick. my local has these.must play by 730 tonight.am thinking about eels,bjorn,woods and fading mickelson.would welcome any advice.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

C'mon Perry or Love. Bring it on home.

Added....
Curtis Top 4 12'-1
Not sure if he can hang on due to all the talent around him but the price seems pretty good.

 

[Stanley]

Sports student,

The tie is worth about 30 cents in a pick'em two-ball to my reckoning.

A typical pick'em two-ball line is:

10/11 (-110 or 52.4%)
10/11 (-110 or 52.4%)
15/2 (+750 or 11.8%)

which means you're betting to a 116.6% (52.4 + 52.4 + 11.8) market.


Converting a 116.6% market for a pick'em two-ball is:

-140 (58.3%)
-140 (58.3%)

So -140 with ties push is the same value as -110 with ties lose according to the maths.

More strictly, the difference is 5.9 percentage points (58.3% vs 52.4%), so it is far more than 25 cents for a large favourite and far less for a large dog. See http://www.tour-tips.com/OddsConverter.htm for a comparison of odds percentages.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Much better than I could explain it. Thanks Stan

I'll add my 2 cents on a non-math formula---if matchup is available at time with ties push i will not bet ties lose.
Not so bad last years but prior 2 years I had aversion for pushes way above law of average--and days like yesterday,pushing 3 of 8 matches keeps reminding to avoid them if possible. Do play them in small parlays however.
However WSEX had been most generous with their 1/2 stroke lines and do well there except they have tighten up quite a bit of late.

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 1-2-0; -4.20 units

Campbell/Rollins WON by 6
Estes/Cink LOST by 1
Parry/Goggin LOST by 6

4th round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Stephen Leaney -135 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Rich Beem to beat Ian Woosnam -118 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
S.K. Ho to beat Mark Foster -117 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

Lowell, my top one would be Love over Bjorn.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple now will wait and see whats kickin weather wise.
Bjorn -112 over Jacobson @ 5 dimes
P Price - 105 over Curtis @ $plays

 

[lowell]

another steve and stanley

another steve and stanley

thanks for your replies.got lucky on sat.thought the matchup was nick price vs jacobsen but found out it was phillip who shot a 69.you were right on mickelson on sat who lost both matchups.for sun i did play love vs bjoyn.i took goosen over mickelson but did play phil m over price.took garcia over perry and singh over perry.took woods over singh and garcia.i think he learned today the benefit of keeping the ball in the fairway.i think love will beat tiger by 1 shot.

 

[wannabe whale]

There is no way that most here in the forum need my help-but a few plays just Really stand out for tomorrow--

Woods -170 Over DL3--would be my highest play this year. Tiger is ready to growl tomorrow. 10 units

T Bjorn -120 Over DL3-the only man to look Tiger in the eye and beat him. 3 units

SGarcia -120 over KPerry-waitng for KP to come down. I hate Garcia-but luck seems to be on his side this week.

--Thought Roe was just CLASSY after what happened.

Enjoy

 

[sports student]

4th round

found these at Bowmans and needed just a little more action tomorrow :nooo:

Love-125 over Bjorn
Evans -120 over Fulke


good luck

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

did it rain there last night and is it now raining?

--a little on the Love topic since it seems of interest. Thoughts of him wilting with Tiger on his heels comes to mind from past and so far I believe Bjorn has played the best tee to green,however one undeniable fact from past 5 Opens DL3 has shot
67-67-67-69-68 in the final rd of last 5 Opens beating Els in every rd by 15 strokes collectively and beating Tiger 3 of 5.
---but he was free wheeling and did not have added pressure.
If not for that fact I would take him at +135 vs Els today @ % dimes.
If you like Love over Bjorn you can get him at +100 down one stroke @ Oly--If you like Bjorn you can get him +120 @ $plays
I just hope they both play well and finish top 5

 

[Clive]

Think weather will be similar to yesterday, possibly a little better...coverage in 5 mins here, so I'll post if it's different to that.

Not sure what to expect today, Bjorn is a big winner with me, but I've given a third of it back on the exchanges...will prob have to do some more as day progresses..hope for a place at least.

Frantic trading sees all the players making a profit, but Garcia and Woods the smallest..another busy day!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Clive
I saw where it was to have rained some in the night and appears some of the dart throwers are doing better which might indicate greens have soften. Would think ,if so, it would benefit those like
Perry, and take a lot of the element of good vs bad bounces out of it.

 

[Clive]

thunderstorms but hardly any rain...wind picking up a little, but gusting rather than consistent

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

finals remaining 72 holes 2-2-1 4th rd 0-2
72 holes
Goose/Mick win
Lonard/ Forsyth tie=loss Lonard failed to bust 80
Price/Perry loss
Singh/Garcia win
Tiger/Love push
4th rd
Price/Curtis loss
Bjorn/Jacobson

matchhes week 9-10 /- 2.16 units ytd 188-128 +51.57 units

Outrights
Bjorn 2nd
Love 4th
Verplank and Pappas @ BC Open both cut

Week + 25 units ytd +50.8 units

Happy for the Hooter player Curtis who I'll doubt we'll here from again and sad for Bjorn who despite the one hole bunkerfooly would still have won if not for 2 stroke penealty in bunker earlier.
He'll have long time to think what might have been.
Tiger once more needed one more par 5 on this course going 10 under on par 5's and 11 over on others.
My hats off to the Euro gallery who are the best,most courteous fans in the world. What a pleasure to view 5 hours a day with not one "you da man" or "get in the hole"
To them I say:toast:

 

[The Big Tease]

gotta disagree with ya on curtis....we will hear from him again. I have seen him play numerous times, with him being from Ohio, and I have been plugging this guy for quite sometime now. I have actually bet on him about 5 times knowing that he would break through eventually. I sure wish I coulda pulled the trigger on him at 35-1 before the day. I cant believe I didnt....

 

[Stanley]

4th round update: 1-2-0; -2.81 units

Allenby/Leaney LOST by 2
Beem/Woosnam WON by 6
Ho/Foster LOST by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 6-4-0; +1.65 units

Allenby/Howell WON by 4
Estes/Howell WON by 5
Cink/Campbell LOST by 4

Props: 7-6 ;-6.14 units

Winning score greater than 273 WON (283)

18-holes: 2-4-0; -7.01 units

Outrights: 2-5; +6.00 units

Clarke 59th
Love 4th
Evans 3rd
Garcia 3rd
Lonard 21st

There is always a lot of drama at the British Open! Bjorn should have won, Love should have been the one taking advantage and instead we have one of the biggest shock winners in recent Open history. Small loss on the event, but came very close in a number of the outright markets to finding another reason for making it a week to remember.

European Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 46-43; -12.42 units
18-holes: 41-38; -0.21 units
Outrights: 9-45; -19.05 units