The Players Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Retief Goosen to win 40/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
A large price for a player that fits the bill of the usual winner here - a Major winner with very good greens in regulation stats. Presumably, that is because of his very poor record at Sawgrass - one cut made in five attempts - but Goosen is a far better player tan this. He had finished 1st and 3rd in his last two Florida events before last week's Bay Hill Invitational and does play better on Bermuda greens. He is more than capable of winning in this company, so these odds do look rather generous.

Scott Verplank to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, BetInternet and Victor Chandler
Rather doubtful that Verplank can win in this company, but the place odds are nowhere near as attractive so sticking with the each-way play. He was very impressive over the difficult closing stretch on Sunday and the same steely nerves over the final few holes at Sawgrass will gain him a great deal of strokes over the field. Plus, having finished in the top-10 in six of his last seven strokeplay events (and only 20th in the other), there is good reason to side with Verplank again and hope he secures another profitable top-5 finish.

Robert Allenby to win 50/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power and Victor Chandler
Like Goosen, Allenby missed the cut last week, but that is of little concern with a player who is a proven winner on this Tour. He as finished higher up the leaderboard in each of is last four visits to Sawgrass and was a top-5 finisher last year. At 50/1 that would represent a nice profit for just a place win. And he is playing just as well. In the past three months, he has won once and finished in the top-15 in five of seven strokeplay events. Just can't see all three of these finishing outside the top-10, so should be a good chance of a decent return from at least one of them this week.

 

[veride]

from Victor Chandler (EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) :

Robet Allenby --> 51/1
Predraig Harrignton --> 51/1
Fred Couples --> 101/1
Mark Calcavecchia --> 151/1

 

[pointspred fred]

Stanley.....

Stanley.....

Thanks for your help last week in my fantasy golf league. The league is $5000 a person, with 10 people, and I'm in second place. In my league, you pick two "A" players, from a list of about 50 players, for the week and start ONE of them. you pick 4 "B" players and start TWO of them. You pick 2 "C" players and start ONE of them. VJ and Tiger Stunk last week but I still maintained my place in 2nd.

This week, I'm thinking of blowing off tiger completely as well as VJ, and taking chad campbell and els as my A players and starting chad. Is that a good idea?

PSF

 

[hoss]

Stan, Allenby is 55 at Canbet

 

[Stanley]

Thanks, but I prefer the each-way terms elsewhere

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Stuart Appleby to beat Darren Clarke -110 @ Bet365
For all that Clarke has improved his form this year, he has yet to finish ahead of Appleby in any of their five common strokeplay events this year. And for all his improved form, he has only made two of six cuts this year which is not very impressive. So long as there is not too much reaction to losing the lead last week, Appleby looks set for another good week.
(also available at Victor Chandler)

Scott Verplank to beat Darren Clarke -111 @ SIA
This price will definitely not last! Verplank is a best-price of -137 elsewhere and justifiably so. Clarke really needs Verplank's consistency if he is to become a true world-class player.
(also available at Aces, Five Dimes, Pinnacle, Sirbet and Olympic)

Tom Lehman to beat Aaron Baddeley -140 @ Five Dimes
Lehman is certainly another very consistent player. His last missed cut was back at the PGA Championship in August! He has also missed just one cut in the last nine years here at Sawgrass (six top-15 finishes), whereas Baddeley has yet to play this course and so should struggle to make the cut.

Justin Leonard to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ Five Dimes and Pinnacle
Leonard is another who can be supported in match bets because of his consistency. He has made every cut this year, finishing in the top-30 in all but one event and with the emphasis more on straight driving this week, the 1998 champion should be favoured. Bjorn's driving does let him down and his form has certainly dropped over the past month.
(also available at Aces, Olympic and Sirbet)

Padraig Harrington to beat Colin Montgomerie -114 @ Centrebet
For all that Monty won against a very weak field in Asia last week, one statistic is very decisive in this matchup. Over the last three years, Harrington leads Montgomerie 12-0-0 h2h on the PGA Tour. Little more needs to be said!

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Colin Montgomerie -154 @ NordicBet
Also siding with Maruyama against Monty. With every cut made in his eight starts this year, plus three top-6 finishes, this has been a pretty good start to 2004 for Maruyama. He could certainly repeat his top-15 finish of 2002, but should need much less to beat a tired Monty who has missed three of his last four cuts in Florida.

Chris Riley to beat John Daly -111 @ BetandWin [3pts]
Not quite the boom or bust of previous years, but Daly showed in how he played the last hole at Bay Hill with a place in the Masters on the line that he still doesn't know how to play cautiously. That just too much of a handicap at Sawgrass and can explain why he shot 80 in the final round last year when in a good position after 54 holes. On this tough course that requires a great deal of patience, I'll side with Riley every time.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Certainly see merit in the Allenby-Verplank sellections but got a couple others to add place only top 5
Harrington 10/1 @ 5dimes
Maggert 28/1 @ Skybet

Maggert appears laughable but considering course set-up and his straight driving and current/course form I've seen sicker dogs get well.

---and speaking of laughable consider this--Daly has beaten Tiger in all 3 events in common this year. Now thats funny

--and a factor that may be of use to some--the wind has been quite steady past 3 days starting at about 7mph and hitting 15 at around 11 am their time and appears we might get more of the same.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
3 pups I like in 72 holes
Singh +100 over Els @ Gamebookers
Bjorn +100 over Monty ( love Stan's Harrington over Monty)
Allenby +120 over Goose @ $plays

--and speaking of $plays was a day as had to do 1st reload since being with them since 99 this week after going thru $300 2004 initial stake.

 

[lostinamerica]

Two themes continue to feature prominently in a good many of my capping decisions: (1) " . . .it seems that in 2004, the top contenders and those on the fringes of contention are doing an exceptional job (PGA and European Tour) of getting right back in contention after going close the prior week . . . Is some of this a consequence of Tiger raising the bar and these guys responding with better conditioning, sport psychologists, swing coaches and a greater work ethic? Does great equipment and better seasoning (i.e., Nationwide Tour, college programs, global influx) play a role? This too shall pass, but it's a theme until it runs its course"; and (2) The Butch Harmon influence: Stewart Cink, Adam Scott, Fred Couples, Steve Flesch, Corey Pavin, Darren Clarke, Ben Crane, Mathias Gronberg, Justin Leonard, Jean Van de Velde, Kevin Na, Jose Maria Olazabal, Tom Purtzer, Mark Calcavecchia, Natalie Gulbis, John Schroeder, Greg Kraft, Chris Patton, and a few other names I've scribbled in my notes and can't locate. I continue to keep my eyes on all of them for signs that they are headed in only one direction. Tiger Woods is conspicuous by his absence from that list . . . But those are far from the only trends and developments showing legs in this Ryder Cup season (The Mickelson/Daly/Montgomerie Oldies Trio quickly comes to mind, as does the seasoning of Nationwide Tour graduates).

Pete Dye's "love it or hate it" signature TPC design. Keeping the ball in play off the tee is a must, but reasonable avenues are offered for accomplishing that task. From there, it's a fine line that separates shots that feed to the hole and those that hang up, and those that that are a little off and just disappear. The favorable weather will allow a setup that will find out those lacking a sincere committment and belief in what they are doing, long before matters come down to any sort of a putting contest. Patience and emotional stamina are usually rewarded at the end of this long and demanding week . . . The richest and most coveted championship that is NOT a major probably accounts for my instinct to like the chances of good men that are a bit light in their resumes, remembering how many times I've watched them embrace any real opportunity that presents itself here to produce a defining stand in their career to date . . . I like the chances of some of the strong themes that have taken shape during the season to culminate rather than evaporate in the next few weeks, with a caveat this week that I will force myself to stay away when I can't draw something positive from prior performances at Sawgrass. (Jesper Parnevik is the prime example of someone that I would strongly consider looking at, given the potential for this event to trigger more of the good stuff he has been producing, EXCEPT that horse and this stadium course seem to have no affinity that will allow me to make that leap of faith. I am far more distressed about having been unable to give Mickelson, Ames, Couples or Riley a bigger role in my investment strategy.)

http://pgatour.com/story/7197854(Going from Bay Hill to Sawgrass) I look at the names from last week, and then juxtapose the historical numbers on this year's developments, and I think 3-4 repeats in the Top Ten is actually a pretty realistic prognostication this time around.


OUTRIGHTS:

Scott Verplank(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I look at this as Scott's Masters, easily his best opportunity for a worthy culmination.

Adam Scott(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
His game is examination worthy, and nothing has changed since February when it appeared the thrust of this season and the arc of his career was pointing him towards getting more than his feet wet while engaged in the deep stages of events like this.

Chad Campbell(22/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
I didn't need value like this to entice me. I wasn't going to take a winning marker on this guy off the table. Wouldn't be prudent.

Jeff Maggert(150/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
The venue suits, "popping early", in this case ahead of a return to Augusta, is an angle I subscribe to from time to time, and very recently he showed and then freely acknowledged he had something going on with his game. The status of his shoulder is an injured golfer syndrome I'm willing to chance.

MORE OUTRIGHTS:

Corey Pavin(150/1) for Top American (1/4 for Top 4) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
He was in position last year before a final round of 79, which is not the type of number that he's featured with this year. His absence for whatever reason through four full events intrigues me; I hope Butch Harmon was somehow in the mix.

Jerry Kelly(33/1) for Top American for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
A player I usually look to oppose, but this week I was looking long and hard for a way to include him in my staking plan, and I just couldn't leave him out on the final cut.

Colin Montgomerie(10/1) for Top European for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
I forsee more surging than sagging at this given moment. Both his short game, and the resiliency in his disposition, have been noteworthy in his recent performances. Another winning marker from last week that I feel good about leaving on the table. Noting the European's generally poor record on this course, Monty gets my money ahead of Donald(20/1) and Cejka(28/1).

Geoff Ogilvy(50/1) for Top Rest of World for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
This seemed the hardest specialty market for any longshot to crash into the upper echelon, but I like his game for big events and maybe his penchant for Pete Dye designs. As I noted at this time last year, Ogilvy intrigued me with his talk about a reputation as a range rat, always thinking he was about to nail it down before the shocks on the course would reacquaint him with reality, and now he is focusing more on playing golf, and it really seems to work.

I don't know how ridiculous all that will look if something promising catches my fancy in-running and I lurch off in another direction.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts):

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Thomas Bjorn -130 @ WSEX
Simple extension of the previous plays backing Maruyama and opposing Bjorn. Aside from Maruyama's impressive start to the year, there is also support from the h2h stats: he leads Bjorn 9-2-1 in PGA Tour events over the past three years.

Chris DiMarco to beat Tom Lehman -125 @ WSEX
Backed Lehman against Baddeley, but DiMarco is a completely different class of player and particularly in Florida. DiMarco has yet to finish behind Lehman this year and can boast a 2nd place finish in the FBR Open. He will do far more than just make the cut and so is a very different opponent to Baddeley.

 

[gethman]

Cracking field for the biggest tournament of the year so far. Can easily oppose Tiger, given his driving accuracy stats. Any repeat of his wayward driving will put him on the backfoot here, and even at tempting odds, can be passed over.
Looking at players, who have the nerve to handle the tough course. Driving accuracy and the ability to hit greens will be crucial, given all the water hazards, and I fancy the more aggressive players to struggle this week. Really think the winner may come from below the top ten in the betting, which will provide a big priced winner.

Justin Leonard, 80/1, SkyBet, 1.5 Pts E/W

Chris Di Marco, 66/1, SkyBet, 1.25 Pts E/W

Kirk Triplett, 125/1, Ladbrokes, 0.75 Pts E/W

Stephen Ames, 100/1, Ladbrokes, 0.75 Pts E/W

Maggert, Kaye, Maruyama, and Waldorf very nearly made the list, and I expect them all to go well.

 

[gethman]

Chris DiMarco to beat Kenny Perry, 10/11, StanJames, 1 Point

Was always going to be tough for Perry to follow up a brilliant season last term. He has hardly started this season in disappointing fashion, but early form suggests DiMarco is a little more consistent. DiMarco has finished ahead of Perry for each of the last two years in the Players, which suggest he should do so again this time around.

Kirk Triplett to beat Stewart Cink, 10/11, SkyBet, 1 Point

Dont really like to oppose Cink at this time of year, but the vibes are his form is not what he should be. He was fancied by many to go well last week at Bay Hill, and finished well down the field. Triplett form has been ultra consistent this season so far, and with a course that should suit his tidy, low risk, style of play, he is my fancy to finish ahead of Cink.


Justin Leonard to beat Colin Montgomerie, 10/11, BlueSq, 1 Point

Nobody was more impressed by Monty's return to form last week in Singapore than myself. Despite the extreme heat out in Singapore, it was hardly the toughest field Monty will be expected to win in. His schedule this season has been pretty tough, and he is bound to be tired having travelled so much recently. Apart from the fact, Leonard will revel in the conditions at Sawgrass this week, he is also fresher having been in Florida for a number of weeks during the swing. It has been a long time since Monty has competed out on the PGA Tour, and this looks set to continue this week.

Justin Leonard to beat Charles Howell, 10/11, Ladbrokes, 2 Points

Totally looking to oppose the aggresive nature of Howell's game. His driving stats and greens in regulation, suggest he may well have a tough week. I hope he has taken his wellingtons as he might be seeing a lot of water at Sawgrass. He did show improvement last week at Bay Hill, but I will side with the more consistent appraoch of Justin Leonard every time.

 

[matchmaker]

Hi Guys
Agree with Stanley on

ROBERT ALLENBY
1pt E/W @ 50-1 [Ladbrokes] 1/5 12345

The more the Aussie plays this course,the better he scores..
Is hitting the ball a long these days and reasonably straight,which wont do him any harm at Sawgrass.
Also mentally has the patience and strategy needed to play well in these demanding circumstances.
Good Luck

 

[Another Steve]

Players Plays

Players Plays

Retief Goosen WINS PLAYERS CHAM +30.00

Still couldn't fall out of a boat and hit Water. So, going with Goosen strickly for the price. Ekco Stanley's thoughts, Damn good Player at that Price.

GLTA

 

[2muchchalk]

COuld not agree more about Chris Riley play.
GL with the rest

 

[lal2000]

Mixed Doubles ? Sawgrass/Madiera ? all at SkyBet

Verplank/Luna
Verplank/Lefeber
Verplank/Webster
Verplank/Botes
Clarke/Webster
Clarke/Dredge
Langer/Dredge
Kelly/Moore
Ames/Ilonen
Ames/Botes
Leonard/Sandelin
Scott/Cayeux
Allenby/Derksen
Campbell/Lefeber
Goosen/Lefeber
C Howell/Borrego

Felt there were a lot of interesting combinations this weekend and laid on a few more than usual.

Good Luck!

 

[lal2000]

Outrights ( ? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)

S Ames 125/1 @ Bet365
K Triplett 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
M Calcavecchi 200/1 @ Sporting Odds
KJ Choi 100/1 @ SkyBet
B Langer 150/1 @ Sporting Odds
J Kelly 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)
S Verplank 50/1 @ William Hill (1/5 odds 1st 5)

Also interested in Hamilton (again!), Leonard, Parnevik, Pavin & Janzen.

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS (1* each):

Ogilvy(-115) over Frazar (Tournament) @ 5dimes
Montgomerie(-175) to Make Cut @ Bet365
Mickelson(-125) over Sabbatini/Stadler (1st Round) @ Bet365
Pavin(+162) over Estes/Mattiace (1st Round) @ Bet365
Scott(-145) over Kaye (Tournament) @ Bet365

GL

 

[rrc]

1 play..

1 play..

Goosen over Els ev 1 unit

Hopefully Goosen overcomes his prior course form here and Ernie's putting problems continue for one more week. glta

 

[lal2000]

Outrights in-running - Added 0.4 units ew (1/4 odds 1st 4)

R Gamez 100/1 @ William Hill
C Perks 100/1 @ William Hill

Can't help but feel that both of these guys are due for a break out - their first rounds were pretty reasonable, though Perks played a much more balanced round than Gamez. They are well placed and if their games hold up, they could pay off.

Good Luck!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd prop @ Skybet
Tiger to make the cut -120

Only reason for wager is to hex him into missing cut
Shouldn't have miss cut string anyway as he was +8 at AT&T prior when event was canceled.

 

[veride]

Lowest Score of Round 2 - kind of sure bet

Lowest Score of Round 2 - kind of sure bet

16:45

Adam Scott better than Shigeki Maruyama, Briny Baird, Bernhard Langer, Alex Cejka and Jeff Sluman --> 4.00 Paddy Power

16:45

Shigeki Maruyama better than Adam Scott, Briny Baird, Bernhard Langer, Alex Cejka and Jeff Sluman --> 4.50 Paddy Power

75% for Scott and 25% for Maruyama (for no lose)...

example :

3 units for Scott and 1 unit for Maruyama --> so if Scott wins I get 12 units and if Maruyama wins I get 4,5 unit...