Round 1 plays (4pts):
Brendon De Jonge to beat Danny Willett +100 @ 5Dimes
Surprised to see Willett as the favourite in this matchup. He played seven rounds of golf in four days last week to achieve a much better result than anyone expected and a let-down is highly likely this week, particularly as he had not shown any great form ahead of last week and is making his course debut this week. De Jonge has been in good form - 5th, 18th and 22nd in his last three starts - and has two top-15 finishes in the last three years here. Well-rested from missing last week's event, he should be a clear favourite in this matchup.
Ben Martin to beat Shane Lowry +100 @ 5Dimes
Two players making their debut who exited at the group stage last week, but I would still make Martin the favourite in this matchup. In the last two months, Lowry has finished mc-58th-mc in his three strokeplay events, whereas Martin has finished 5th-mc-37th. With lots more experience in Florida as well as better recent form, Martin is the pick in this matchup.
Jordan Spieth to beat Jim Furyk -110 @ 5Dimes
Similar to the first play, a let-down is expected of Furyk who lost to Willett in each player's seventh match of the week. Admittedly, Furyk finished 2nd last year, but that was not the week after the WGC Match Play event and it was his first top-20 finish at Sawgrass since 2009. I would really expect a player whose last five strokeplay finishes have been 1st-2nd-2nd-1st-11th to be available at a much shorter price, particularly as Spieth finished 4th here last year on his debut and was joint-leader at the start of the final round.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kuchar tb Watson -103; Cabrera tb Lahiri -120]