The Players Championship
- Thread starter ormond80
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3rd Round Match Ups
3rd Round Match Ups
A CEJKA (RND 3) -115 (R SABBATINI (RND 3) vrs A CEJKA (RND 3))
S GARCIA (RND 3) +105 (H STENSON (RND 3) vrs S GARCIA (RND 3))
B HORSCHEL (RND 3) -115 (B HORSCHEL (RND 3) vrs I POULTER (RND 3))
3rd Round Match Ups
A CEJKA (RND 3) -115 (R SABBATINI (RND 3) vrs A CEJKA (RND 3))
S GARCIA (RND 3) +105 (H STENSON (RND 3) vrs S GARCIA (RND 3))
B HORSCHEL (RND 3) -115 (B HORSCHEL (RND 3) vrs I POULTER (RND 3))
Round 3 plays (4pts unless stated):
Ian Poulter to beat Billy Horschel +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
In much better form recently and on this course, Poulter should be the favourite in this matchup. He has top-25 finishes in each of his last four starts, whereas Horschel has achieved just one since the Tour left Hawaii in January and while Horschel is yet to record a top-25 finish on this course, Poulter has three, including a runns-up finish in 2009. Both are currently in 13th place and Poulter appears to be far more likely to stay inside the top-25.
Brendon Todd to beat Russell Henley +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Another matchup in which the in-form player is priced as an underdog. I'll back him to continue his form into the weekend at these odds.
Bill Haas to beat Zach Johnson +115 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts]
A very different play here. Johnson does have the better course form and Haas' current form is only marginally better, but (i) Haas dominates this matchup 11-4-2 over the last year, and (ii) while Haas may be a player to avoid and Johnson a player to back in the final round when inside the top-10, this is not the case on Moving Day: in each of the last 4 years, Haas has ranked higher than Johnson in Round 3 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour. That means there should be value at these odds.
[unofficial rd3 system play: Kelly tb Hearn +106]
Ian Poulter to beat Billy Horschel +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
In much better form recently and on this course, Poulter should be the favourite in this matchup. He has top-25 finishes in each of his last four starts, whereas Horschel has achieved just one since the Tour left Hawaii in January and while Horschel is yet to record a top-25 finish on this course, Poulter has three, including a runns-up finish in 2009. Both are currently in 13th place and Poulter appears to be far more likely to stay inside the top-25.
Brendon Todd to beat Russell Henley +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Another matchup in which the in-form player is priced as an underdog. I'll back him to continue his form into the weekend at these odds.
Bill Haas to beat Zach Johnson +115 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts]
A very different play here. Johnson does have the better course form and Haas' current form is only marginally better, but (i) Haas dominates this matchup 11-4-2 over the last year, and (ii) while Haas may be a player to avoid and Johnson a player to back in the final round when inside the top-10, this is not the case on Moving Day: in each of the last 4 years, Haas has ranked higher than Johnson in Round 3 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour. That means there should be value at these odds.
[unofficial rd3 system play: Kelly tb Hearn +106]
rd 3, playing:
rory sabbs -120 vs alex cejka
despite recent form favoring his opponent, i like sabbs' history at Sawgrass better than cejka's
as always, good luck
LA Burns
rory sabbs -120 vs alex cejka
despite recent form favoring his opponent, i like sabbs' history at Sawgrass better than cejka's
as always, good luck
LA Burns
Round 4 plays (4pts):
Kevin Na to beat Billy Horschel +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Opposing Horschel again, but this time with a player whose who is even more in-form: Na has finished in the top-20 in each of his last six events, so starting today in 5th place should not cause him too much pressure as the confidence in his game must be as high as it has ever been. That is not the case for Horschel who has just one top-25 finish since the Tour left Hawaii, so his game should be more vulnerable in today's final round.
Sergio Garcia to beat Bill Haas -127 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Yesterday I made a case for backing Haas in rd3, but not in rd4. That case is even stronger now that he is 2nd after rd3. He has started rd4 in 2nd, 3rd or 4th place on 12 previous occasions on the PGA Tour and on those 12 occasions, he never broke 70 in rd4, never improved his leaderboard position at the end of the day, and so has never won from this position. Garcia is not a great closer of tournaments, but, by means of comparison, in the nine times that he has started rd4 in 2nd, 3rd or 4th place since June 2011, he finished every event in 2nd, 3rd or 4th place. He may have a poor record of winning when in contention, but he does stay in contention in rd4 unlike Haas.
Ben Martin to beat Bill Haas +120 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally]
Also opposing Haas with his playing partner. This is the fourth time that Martin has been 2nd, 3rd or 4th on the PGA Tour in his short career and only once did play poorly in the final round. He should be able to take advantage of Haas' predicted difficulties today.
Kevin Na to beat Billy Horschel +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Opposing Horschel again, but this time with a player whose who is even more in-form: Na has finished in the top-20 in each of his last six events, so starting today in 5th place should not cause him too much pressure as the confidence in his game must be as high as it has ever been. That is not the case for Horschel who has just one top-25 finish since the Tour left Hawaii, so his game should be more vulnerable in today's final round.
Sergio Garcia to beat Bill Haas -127 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Yesterday I made a case for backing Haas in rd3, but not in rd4. That case is even stronger now that he is 2nd after rd3. He has started rd4 in 2nd, 3rd or 4th place on 12 previous occasions on the PGA Tour and on those 12 occasions, he never broke 70 in rd4, never improved his leaderboard position at the end of the day, and so has never won from this position. Garcia is not a great closer of tournaments, but, by means of comparison, in the nine times that he has started rd4 in 2nd, 3rd or 4th place since June 2011, he finished every event in 2nd, 3rd or 4th place. He may have a poor record of winning when in contention, but he does stay in contention in rd4 unlike Haas.
Ben Martin to beat Bill Haas +120 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally]
Also opposing Haas with his playing partner. This is the fourth time that Martin has been 2nd, 3rd or 4th on the PGA Tour in his short career and only once did play poorly in the final round. He should be able to take advantage of Haas' predicted difficulties today.
4th Round Match Ups
4th Round Match Ups
J KELLY (RND 4) -120 (D HEARN (RND 4) vrs J KELLY (RND 4))
C KIRK (RND 4) -130 (C KIRK (RND 4) vrs K KISNER (RND 4)
4th Round Match Ups
J KELLY (RND 4) -120 (D HEARN (RND 4) vrs J KELLY (RND 4))
C KIRK (RND 4) -130 (C KIRK (RND 4) vrs K KISNER (RND 4)
