theory on ties going into the 3rd period - looking for stats

EXTRAPOLATER

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I haven't even googlied shit, yet.
I should get in bed with Grok, later, and see what she says.

Anyways, simple concept. Teams that are getting outshot are generally getting outplayed, more times than not. A simple test would be stats for games going into the 3rd period tied; team with more shots vs team with less shots, maybe with a special category for greater discrepancies (say 6+, 10+, something).

Any thoughts or stats or free drugs and alcohol are tolerable.


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EXTRAPOLATER

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Avs and Leafs tied 1-1 going into the 3rd, currently.
espn claims Avs outshooting Leafs 28-15. It shows. 3rd ain't Leafs best, neither.

Go Leafs. Good grief. Fuck this blue blood.
 

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EXTRAPOLATER

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That was hilarious, aye.
6m left. TNT call I'm stuck with is grim.

I'm dumb. Obvious Q is whether teams that get outshot get outwon.
Googly generative AI says:

In the NHL, teams that get outshot often struggle to win, but it's not an absolute rule, and there are exceptions, especially for teams that are good at controlling the puck and limiting high-danger chances.

Here's a breakdown of the general trend and some factors to consider:
  • General Trend:
    Teams that allow more shots on goal generally have a lower winning percentage.

  • Why it matters:
    • More Shots = More Opportunities: The more shots a team allows, the more opportunities the opposing team has to score.

    • Defense Under Pressure: Teams that are constantly defending can struggle to maintain their defensive structure and fatigue, leading to more chances against.

    • Parity in the NHL: The NHL is a very competitive league, and even small differences in shot differential can make a big difference in the standings.
  • Exceptions to the Rule:
    • High-Scoring Teams: Teams that are very good at scoring may be able to overcome a shot deficit by outscoring their opponents.

    • Defensive Dominance: Teams that are excellent at limiting high-danger chances and controlling the puck can still win even if they are outshot.

    • Goaltending: A strong goaltender can make up for a shot deficit and allow a team to win despite being outshot.
  • Examples:
    • Toronto Maple Leafs (2012-2014): The Leafs were outshot by a significant margin in those years, but still had a competitive record.

    • Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers (2012-2014): These teams were also outshot by a large margin and were not playoff contenders.
In summary, while being outshot is generally a negative indicator in the NHL, it's not a guarantee of defeat. Teams can still find ways to win by outscoring their opponents, controlling the puck, and having strong goaltending.




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