This has me kinda stumped

[Real_Vision]

Basically bama and smu are locks to be in?




But clemson opened as the fav in the acc title game.

Its suggesting someone above 1 thru 9 in the cfp rankings can get bounced (allowing smu to remain in win or lose)

How does Georgia stay in if they lose?

Bama has the h2h, georgias best win over UT is diminished somewhat.

Or does bama get bounced and smu stays in no matter what?

I’m leaning that way 👆

Also interesting is how i cant find a penn state backer vs oregon, they’ll call it a STUNNING UPSET if oregon falls, yet this number the lowest valuation of oregon since the +3.5 at home vs ohio state (one of my biggest wins this season )

In conference games oregon +1.8 ats psu +1.1.

 

[Bombs]

I dont think it suggests that.

It means there is almost no chance both teams DONT make it (i.e. one has to make it). There is a decent chance one team misses, but playing that on those lines would be at +138 roughly - i.e. 100 on bama no, 100 on smu no. one of them WILL DEFINITELY be in so you cant win both. best you could do is 200 to 280 or 200 to 275. I think that is about right to be honest.

The wager really is:

Bama and SMU both make it vs one doesn't make it. One doesn't make it is the dog.

 

[Bombs]

Another way to look at it is both teams have a way in regardless of the Clem/SMU outcome.

SMU wins, they are in, bama is in.

Clemson wins, SMU might still be in or it could be bama (may depend on how the game goes).

 

[Bombs]

Personally (and I wouldn't wager on this opinion) I do not think the committee will penalize a team that was in and lost their conference championship game. Would set a messed up precedent for future years. So I think SMU is in regardless and Bama needs a SMU win.

 

[boomer1]

Personally (and I wouldn't wager on this opinion) I do not think the committee will penalize a team that was in and lost their conference championship game. Would set a messed up precedent for future years. So I think SMU is in regardless and Bama needs a SMU win.

I’m bias, but I think SMU has to win to get in. Their biggest win is vs Duke in Ot. Not a single top 25 victory. Plus there’s tv ratings to be had. Would you rather see Smu vs Nd or Alabama vs ND? Jmo

 

[arrow]

I’m bias, but I think SMU has to win to get in. Their biggest win is vs Duke in Ot. Not a single top 25 victory. Plus there’s tv ratings to be had. Would you rather see Smu vs Nd or Alabama vs ND? Jmo

I’ve said that for years boomer, it’s who the ncaa wants in so they can make the the most money.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

There are many ways to look at it as well as the committee's agenda. I don't think you should punish SMU for playing in a conference championship game while Indiana sits below them, doesn't have to risk playing, and is automatically in.

But like Arrow says, it's all about money and ratings. And the announcers and analysts can and will spin it however they want. In the past, head to head didn't always matter b/c they wanted "the best 2/4 teams". But now they're saying "well head to head matters even if it was back in September so South Carolina can't complain".

It is what it is. If SMU gets beat something like oh let's say 24-3 for example, then that will give them reason to put Oklah.....I mean, Alabama in b/c it matters lol. I'm hoping SMU gets in but I also think a lot of this stuff is fake so I'll prob bet on Clemson. I don't think it'll be a blowout but I think they'll win convincingly, maybe by 17, and that'll give it a little bit of drama and discussion as they put Clemson and Alabama into the playoff.

Herbie and Rece will let us know that "SMU had their chance and just didn't do quite enough but ya know they've got a good squad coming back next year yada yada yada" lol. I love college football so I'm just trying to enjoy the show and bet accordingly!

 

[Smitty]

it would be really fucked up for a team to lose in the conference championship game and get bounced out of the playoffs in favor of a team that was watching from home. doesn't mean it won't happen, but it would be pretty fucked up.

to expand on what bombs said... that could easily lead to teams sitting out their conference championship games, as insane as that sounds. for example, georgia this year... they would expect to win at least one playoff game. playing in at least 2 games would make them more money than the conference championship. so why risk losing the sec championship game and your shot at the NC?

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Smitty, totally agree and I was actually thinking yeah what if SMU just said we're not gonna play. But then I thought, well they would prob just call it a forfeit and make a rule that if you forfeit then you don't go to CFP or whatever.

I actually changed my mind on the bet. Took SMU - 2 1/2 (also put SMU ML on a parlay w Oregon ML)

I just know that they can do whatever they want and I also don't put it past the ACC to make sure Clemson wins to try and get an extra team in there.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Why oh why did I not just stick w Clemson? lol