THURSDAY SERVICE PLAYS - 11 / 29

[the duke]

John Ryan


Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play

Pick: Total: 51.5/100 Over Play Title: High scoring to say the least based on my research

Ai Simulator 10* graded play OVER the posted total Dallas/GB - AiS shows an 87% probability that 53 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded MONSTER play is a system that has gone 107-60 OVER since 1983. Play over with any team against the total after 3 or more consecutive wins and is now facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins. Both teams come in strong and they both are the two elite teams in the NFC. Green Bay is certainly a very strong offensive team and Dallas allows points against these types of teams. Note that Dallas is 9-1 OVER in home games versus. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. since 1992. GB ranks 2nd in passing offense and Dallas 5th. They also rank 1st and 3rd in the NFC with New Orleans taking the 2nd slot. Their passing defenses are just average at best with GB ranking 18th and Dallas 21st in the NFL. Looking at Passing defense yielding 20+ and 40+ receptions Dallas ranks in the top-10. Yet, this reveals the true weakness of the Dallas defense - that they can be beat deep and MUST play OVER defenses with a cover 2 or cover 3 scheme. This means that Favre will simply pick away underneath all day long until Dallas takes chances via the blitz or man coverage. Both teams rank high in the NFL in sacks, but both offense like to use a 3 step drop and fire, which minimizes the pass rush. Favre uses nearly 80% 3 step and fire passes using slants and hitches. Dallas can utilize quick pass routes on 1st and 2nd downs to accomplish two important goals. Ball control and to make the Packers defensive line not just play run or pass. This will open up big time play action pass opportunities in man coverage schemes. First team to 35 wins and of course that means the OVER wins no matter who scores 35 first.

 

[to1]

Nite Owl Sports

Sport: NFL Football
Game: Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys - Thursday November 29, 2007 8:15 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Over 51 (-109)

Rather than try to pick the ATS winner in this potentially enter taining match-up between two solid winners (both on the field and at the betting window) for the inside track to be the NFC representative in this years Super Bowl, we prefer to predict that the total, number of points scored in the game will go Over the high but manageable totals line of 51, with decent weather predicted (no monsoons like Monday night game in Pittsburgh). While much is being made of the fact that Bret Favre and the Packers are winless in Brets career in Dallas, how relevant is that, given that the last time these two hooked up there (in 1999), Bill Clinton was still our president? There are also some intriguing match-ups between the two teams offenses and defenses, particularly the following three:1. Favre vs. Cowboy secondary, which many believe is the only weak link in the Cowboys armor. After all, the Boys have allowed 217 YP per game, and 15 of the 23 TDs scored against them TY have been through the air, while Favre has been slicing and dicing his way through defenses from Day 1 this season (the veteran has 3,356 yards and 22 touchdowns and leads an offense designed to put the ball in the air). The Packers play with five receivers on the field in most situations and thats going to put severe pressure on a questionable Dallas secondary. One only has to look at the numbers put up by NE QB Tom Brady in the Pats 48-27 rout of the Boys in Dallas earlier TY as an example of this ( 31 of 46 for 388 YP, with 5 TD passes and 0 INTs). 2. Dallas RB Marion Barber vs the Packers 13th ranked rush defense. While the Cowboys offense revolves around quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Owens, it turns to Barber when things get tough. He is the go-to guy in third-down situations, and is an expert at finding holes in opposing defenses at critical points of the game. Barber has rushed for 713 yards and eight touchdowns this season, averaging 4.95 yards per carry. He should build on those numbers against a defense that is allowing more than 100 yards on the ground per game. In its most recent game, Green Bay allowed Lions running back Kevin Jones to rush for 93 yards and a touchdown. 3. Packers DEs Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Aaron Kampman vs. Cowboys QB Tony Romo. Tony Romo has been sacked more times TY than last, and that could get even worse against Green Bay. The Packers boast two of the best defensive ends in the league. Both rank among the top five players in sacks this season. Aaron Kampman is third with 10 and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is fifth with 9.5. The duo has combined for eight sacks in the last four games, making the Packers one of only six teams in the NFL with 30 or more sacks this season. Defensive tackle Corey Williams has chipped in with another seven, five of those coming in the last month. Romo will be praying for better pass protection this week, but theres nothing to suggest he will get it. The Cowboys QB was sacked three times against the Jets in his most recent start. In fact, Romo has been sacked three times or more in four games this season. The point of the above match-up discussions is not only to point out some strengths and vulnerabilities of each of these two fine teams, but also to show the difficulty in picking one of them against the other, even when the Pack is given a 7 point cushion. While neither Green Bays 10-1 record (including 5-0 on the road) nor Favres incredible comeback season can be ignored, nor can the wonderful job head coach Mike McCarthy has done with this team, if one looks closely at their schedule TY, the following Q&A jumps out -- but what good team(s) have they played? None. Except for the Favre factor, doesnt this remind us just a little of 10-0 Kansas going into LWs Missouri game, and being exposed as a good but by no means great team? On the other hand, Dallas has not played a very challenging schedule either, with the exception of Tom Brady and the NE Patriots, by whom the Boys got pounded at home by a score of 48-27. The bottom line on (not) picking a side in this game is that there are just too many strengths on both sides and too many questions to be answ ered for me to feel comfortable backing either side. However, once I have seen these two teams play a half against each other, I might have seen enough to pick one of these teams over the other with a second half bet, using the half time line. However, we do feel more confident backing the Over 51, based both on the numbers for each team and numerous trends favoring the Over for this game. For example, the over trends outnumber the under trends about 3 to 1, but one under trend sticks out as problematic, that being Cowboys 3-14-2 under record in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (tonites spread being 7). Regarding the numbers, while the two teams combined home/road totals numbers (Pack 4-1 Over on road for an average of 47 PPG and Cowboys 3-3 home over with an average of 54 PPG) don't give us any particular edge with a totals line of 51, a closer look, isolating only the offensive performance of each team in their home (Dallas) and road (GB) games TY, does point to the Over tonight, in two respects (i) first, with GB averaging 29.5 ppg on offense and 3-2 Over 25.5 (half of tonites totals line) in their road games and Dallas 32 ppg on offense and 5-1 Over 25.5 in its 6 home games, the combined home/road total numbers for the two teams offenses are 8-3 Over for an average of 61.5 points, 10.5 more than tonite's totals line; and (ii) second, with the individual team totals line on GB just 21 or 21.5 (8 under their average road offensive output), an Over bet on the total number of points to be scored by the Pack tonite is also recommended. With the individual team totals line on Dallas at 28.5, we think there is little value betting Dallas over. Of course, our reliance on the teams respective offensive home/road numbers TY more than total points scored and allowed by each team (in their respective home/road modes tonite) is based on our assumption that this game will be dominated by both teams offenses. We feel better about the Over with the line now at 51 (that line being at least manageabl e), and would not make a pick on the Over at a totals line higher than 52. However, in order to get maximum value out of the Over in this game, we would also recommend (even more strongly than a straight bet on the Over) the following wagers (in addition to the aforementioned Over 21 or 21.5 for total # of points scored by GB): Tease the total down to 45 or less in two teasers, one to Dallas at (-1/2 point) or better and one to GB at (+14) or better. We think both of these teasers have a solid chance to win, as we think Dallas wins tonite, by 3-10 points, with the total # of points scored in the 50s. If the total # of points scored in the first half is 24 or less, and the second half totals line is under 27 (hopefully 24 or less in such event), consider betting over for the second half, assuming of course there have been no game ending injuries in the first half to any impact players on either team's offense. Whatever you decide to do, enjoy tonites game, and bet smart.

 

[Larry_Legend]

Even thoough they both suck does anyone have any Marc Lawerance or Cincy Kid??

 

[to1]

Greg Shaker

Thu, 11/29/07 - 7:00 PMGreg Shaker | CBB Total
double-dime bet512 Buffalo / 511 Tulane Over 140.5 BetUS
Analysis:
NCAAB: Tulane Green Wave at Buffalo Bulls - Over 140.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 11/29/2007

Note: One of the few CBB Totals we have lost was a game in which these Bulls were involved in just the last time out verses Canisuis. In that contest we saw a high number of shots, but a poor shooting percentage with the Griffins connecting on just 33% from the court. Thati is why that game went UNDER the total and sometimes that cannot be predicted. There were a total of 125 shots taken though and that is about average for Buffalo, whose games are fast paced. The Bulls are #46 pacewise this year out of 341 NCAA Teams and tonight they have team in town that shoots lights out from all over the court. In fact the Wave have dipped below 50% shooting just once this year and that was a 47% effort in the first game of the year verses Auburn. Both teams shoot more than average from beyond the arc as well. The Bulls are more than likely going to dictate tempo as they always do, and Tulane is what I call a play along team. They are just fine and dandy to play the pace of the opponent, and proved that time and time again last year. This is also going to be a close enough affair where late game free throw shooting is going to come into play. That should give us bonus shots toward the end. This game should end up more near the 150 mark than what is posted with just reasonable shooting verses shots taken. Play all the way up to 145.

 

[NYMess]

Any Executive tonight??

 

[to1]

Any Executive tonight??

Executive

FREE SELECTIONS. Claims 173-120-4 the past 297 ... over 10 months. Past 11 FREE Selections 9-2 , 82%

Thurs , November 29 10:35

LA LAKERS -5' over Denver

 

[icemike23]

Burns__________ Thursday Night GOY__________________DALLAS (-7 or better)
Another Salvo from Nick's big gun__3*____________ DALLAS over Green Bay by 17
The Fall Miracle_________________________________ ______Dallas Cowboys -6.5
Gold Sheet _____________________________________DAL LAS 34 - Green Bay 24
LT'S LOCK_____________________The LOCK_______________The Cowboys -6' pt
Karl Garrett__________________COMP___________ ____Green Bay at DALLAS (-7)
Maddux Sports______________2 units_____________________Dallas -4 (1st Half)
cash pomer__________largest play of the season________________dallas cowboys
Jeff Alexander____________4* NFC Game of the Month_____________Cowboys -7
Pointwise Newsletter______________________________ __Dallas 30 Green Bay 26

Gold Medal Club_________________25*________________ 1st Half Green Bay +4
Mike Rose___________________Free Pick______________Green Bay Packers +7.0
Michael Cannon___________15 Dime___________________________PACKERS +7
Kelso___________________15 units_____________________Packers +7 @ Dallas
Black Cobra___________________________________ _____Green Bay Packers +7
Mighty ! Quinn___________________________________ ____________Packers +7
Cappers Access__________________________________ ____________Packers + 7
3buckwinner_____________________________ ______________Green Bay Packers
Insider Sports Report_______4*____Green Bay +7 over Dallas_Range +8.5 to +5.5
Discount Sports Picks___________10*________________Green Bay +7 over Dallas
Matt Rivers____________________50,000♦_______ _________________Green Bay
Brandon Lang______________40 DIME_____________________Green Bay Packers
ATS FINANCIAL_______________3 units__________________________Green Bay
Randle the Handle_______________________________Gre en Bay +7 over DALLAS

Wild Bill_________________2 units__________________ Over Packer and Cowboys
Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)___________________GREEN BAY / DALLAS OVER 51.5
Jim Rich____________________________________ ______Over G.B. / Boys 51 1/2
Elite Sports Picks________________________________Gre en Bay/Dallas OVER 51.
Karl Garrett__________________COMP 5♦__________________________OVER GB/Dal
Brandon Lang__________________10 DIME_____________Packers-Cowboys OVER
Professional Gambler Newsletter___________________Packers/Cowboys OVER 51.5
ATS LOCK____________________4 units_______________________Over GB/DAL

WUNDERDOG____________________COMP_______ _Green Bay at Dallas UNDER 51
EROCKMONEY______________________________ (Under 51.5) Green Bay at Dallas
Gold Medal Club_________________25*______________1s t Half GB/Dal UNDER 27



Burns____________college football__________________LOUISVILLE (-4 or better)
Dan Tesinferno's_______________#1 Play 3*_____LOUISVILLE over Rutgers by 14
Wild Bill____________NCAAFGOY 10 units___________L'ville Cards -3 over Rutgers
Inside Las Vegas_________________________________Lo uisville - 2 over Rutgers
Vegas Sport info___________Comp Trend Play ***___Louisville -2 1/2 over Rutgers
Jeff Alexander__________________3*___________ _______________Louisville -2
Pointwise Newsletter______________________________ __Lousiville 31 Rutgers 27

Michael Cannon_____________40 Dime____________________________RUTGERS
Gold Sheet___________________________________ _Rutgers 28 - LOUISVILLE 24
Mighty ! Quinn___________________________________ ________+ 2 1/2 Rutgers
Cappers Access__________________________________ ________Rutgers + 2 1/2
Matt Rivers____________________100,000♦______ ___________________Rutgers
Brandon Lang______________15 DIME_____________________________Rutgers
Jim Kruger________________Bronze 3*____________Rutgers +2.5 over Louisville

Craig Wilson Sports__________________________________ Rutgers/Louisville o60
Wild Bill_________________1 unit _________________________Over L'ville Cards
Insider Sports Report______3*_Rutgers/Louisville OVER 59.5_Range 58 to 61.5

 

[to1]

DR CHAD

NFL
5 units on DALLAS

COLLEGE HOOPS
5 units on NC CHARLOTTE and AIR FORCE
3 units on APPALAICHAN S

 

[icemike23]

PureLock Sports Premium Picks

All plays rated 5 units! 15-2 88% in College Football this past year and 11-10 in NFL this past year! Thats 26-12 68% in football this past year! At least 60% or better in CFB every year!

CFB

RUTGERS @ LOUISVILLE 7:45 PM EST
PLAY ON: RUTGERS (+) PTS

NBA

HOUSTON @ GOLDEN STATE 10:35 PM EST
PLAY ON: HOUSTON (-) PTS

CBB

SANTA CLARA @ EASTERN WASHINGTON 10:00 PM EST
PLAY ON: EASTERN WASHINGTON (+) PTS

 

[to1]

Wolkosky Milan

285-221-13 last ninety six days
3-0 Yesterday

Today:

10* PACKERS +7
10* GB/DAL OVER 51

10* LOUISVILLE -2
10* RUT/LOU UNDER 60

10* DEN/LAL UNDER 218?
10* HOU/GS OVER 207?

 

[to1]

WAYNE ROOT

Chairman
Cowboys

Millionaire
Rutgers

Hoops
Millionaire
Oregon

 

[pipes3131]

Northcoast anyone???

Thanks in advance....

 

[icemike23]

WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - Cowboys
Millionaire - Rutgers


Millionaire - Oregon

 

[icemike23]

LVTR

NFL Green Bay +7
NHL Calgary -130
NBA Denver/Lakers Under 217

 

[jmcarr]

Nortcoast

Nortcoast

GB is a 2* in Power Sweep with a projected score of 28-27 GB so I would guess he is also on the over.

 

[pipes3131]

yeah,, I got the powersweep.. was looking for the college play...

thanks bro

 

[the duke]

Eddie Roman

Highest Rated 7500 Unit NBA Game of my Career

Highest Rated 7500 Unit NBA Game of my Career
Golden State Warriors

I love when this team gets rolling. I used them down the stretch all year last season as they were a covering machine and they are starting to repeat that trend this season after the slow start.
As I wrote last night about the Warriors, they got off to a slow start due to injuries and the suspension of Steven Jackson. Now that their main guys are back in the lineup they are scoring at will just like they did last year and I just don't feel that Houston will have enough to run with them tonight on the second night of back to back games.
I know Golden State is on the second night of back to back games as well but they are the running team and running team's will run no matter what the situation is. Running teams don't get tired. Their up-tempo style of play will destroy the Rockets and this one should be an easy 8 to 12 point win for the Warriors. Back Golden State here, they are a great play.


Two 1000 Unit Football Locks

Louisville Cardinals

Two teams that thought they'd be playing for a chance to go to a major bowl by the time this game came around but it ends up being Louisville just playing for a shot to go to a bowl game as they are 5-6 on the season and that's why I like them here.
I know they have been hit with injuries but Brohm and the offense will find a way to get the job done in this one. Louisville is a good team that just fell into a bad situation but here's the thing, if they lose tonight their season is over and the seniors are done.
I don't feel that will happen at home. They'll step up and play a big game and get the win over a Rutgers team that was blown out in their only road game against a decent team. Their two road wins came against Syracuse and Army, that doesn't impress me. Take Louisville here.


Dallas Cowboys

Sometimes the boys out in Vegas know a little bit more then we do and if they feel the 10-1 Cowboys are this much better then the 10-1 Packers then I will listen to them. I honestly didn't think this line would be more then 4 points and by those standards you'd think I'd be on Green Bay tonight but sometimes the odds makers tell us stories with the lines they put out, we just have to be willing to listen.
By the odds makers making Dallas a TD favorite I feel they told us who the winner is and that's the Cowboys. They are off an easy game last week and should be ready to smoke Green Bay here. Lay the points, take the 'Boys.

 

[the duke]

charlies sports


nfl. green bay @ dallas under 52 (500* )

nfl. dallas-7 (30*)

ncaaf. louisville-2' (20*)

ncaaf. rutgers @ louisville under 60 (20*)

nba. lakers-5 (10*)

nba. boston-13 (10*) free play

 

[the duke]

Sebastian

10* Hou over
10* NYK under

10* Kansas St.


10*Teaser Dallas-1 and over 45

20* Louisville ? 2 ?

 

[pipes3131]

northcoast college play anyone??

thanks in advance....