Larry Ness
Chicago Cubs
REASON FOR PICK: The Brewers got off to a fast start last year and despite posting their first above .500 season since 1992 (83-79), Milwaukee was not able to hold off the Cubs, who won the Central Division with a record of 85-77. However, the Brewers have opened the 2008 season by taking the first two games of a three-game set at Wrigley, 4-3 in 10 innings (Mon) and 8-2 (Weds). In this "getaway day" game on Thursday afternoon, Milwaukee sends Dave Bush to the mound, while the Cubs counter with Ryan Dempster. Dempster was a starter in the early part of his career, mostly for the Marlins. In fact, in 2000 and 20001, he went 29-22 (4.28) with the Marlins going 39-28 in his starts. However, over the last four seasons, just six of his 226 appearances have been in relief, including all 140 appearances the last two seasons (he has 85 saves the last three years for the Cubs). A look of the record books shows that manager Lou Piniella has done his homework in choosing the Brewers as Dempster's first opponent. Dempster has a 2.46 ERA in 30 career appearances (eight starts) against Milwaukee, which represents his lowest ERA against any NL team. Can he go from the team's closer to its "stopper," preventing a Milwaukee sweep in this one? I'm betting he can. Milwaukee owned MLB's second-best home/away differential last year when it came to the moneyline. The Brewers were 51-30 (plus-$1,129) at home but 32-49 and a ML-worst minus-$1,636 on the road. That's a differential of $2,765, second to only the Mets' mark of $3,546! That wasn't exactly news. Milwaukee went 48-33 (plus-$821) at home in 2006, while going 27-54 (minus-$2,182) on the road. That was a differential of $3,003, again the second-biggest in MLB that year (the Pirates had a differential of $3,012). Enter Milwaukee's starting pitcher on Thursday, Dave Bush. Bush went 12-11 (4.41) in 2006 and then 12-10 (5.12) last year. Milwaukee was 16-16 in his 32 starts in '06 plus 14-17 in his 31 starts LY. Now let's break it down home and away. The Brewers were 12-3 in Bush's home starts during '06 (3.23 ERA) but 4-13 in his road starts (5.38 ERA). In '07, the splits were 8-7 at home (4.39 ERA) and 6-10 (6.14 ERA) on the road. That's two-year mark of 20-10 at home and 10-23 on the road. That's good enough for me!
Getaway Day Game of the Week
Chi Cubs (6*)
PICK: San Diego Padres
Your pick will be graded at: -142 5Dimes
EXPERT: Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Here's exactly how I opened my write-up yesterday. Bagwell and Biggio retired, Adam Everett was released, Ausmus is now the back-up catcher plus Ensberg, Lane and Taveras were traded. That leaves only Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman returning from Houston's opening-day starters of a year ago. Considering the Astros went 73-89 last year, including 31-50 (minus-$1,440) on the road, that could be good news. However, the "new look" Astros have opened the season with 4-0 and 2-1 losses at San Diego. That's just ONE run and only 10 hits in their first two games, after the team finished 13th in the NL in runs scored (723) and 12th in batting average (.260) in '07. Maybe it's not so much of a new-look, after all? I had the Padres over the Astros as part of my first Superstar Triple Play of '08. I won with the Orioles and Braves (which was good enough for a winning report) but lost with San Diego when the Astros, trailing by a run with two outs and nobody on base in the 9th, rallied to score four runs off Trevor Hoffman (remember that Oct 1 wild card playoff game with the Rockies last year?). So after scoring one run (on a bases loaded walk) with just 10 hits in the first two games vs the Padres, the Astros pounded out 11 hits, including four home runs, yesterday! Randy Wolf goes for San Diego, making his first start as a Padre. The lefty enters his 10th MLB season but hasn't made more than 23 starts in a season since going 16-10 for the Phillies in 2003 (33 starts). He made 18 starts for Dodgers in '07 before shoulder surgery ended his season in July. That being said, over the last six seasons (five with Phiily and one with LA), his teams are 78-52 in his 130 starts, which is pretty good. Shawn Chacon goes for the Astros. He's a seven-year vet who spent last year with the Pirates, making 64 appearances (5-4, 3.94) but only four starts. He was a regular starter for the Rockies from 2001-03, going 22-29 (5.10), with Colorado going 31-40 in his starts, including a pathetic 11-25 on the road. He' spent the last fours years in and out of the starting rotation and bullpen, posting a 21-29 mark with a 4.86 ERA. The Padres are not a great hitting team but Chacon should be "right up their alley." As for Wolf vs the Astros, I'm betting that those Houston bats are mostly 'tired' after last night's outburst of 11 hits (four HRs). It's a quick turnaround from last night's game for both and the short rest also favors the home side.
Las Vegas Insider
SD Padres (8*)
REASON FOR PICK: The Cavs have already clinched a playoff spot and have just about clinched the No. 4 seed, while the Bulls are desperately fighting for their playoff lives. Cleveland's 'King,' LeBron James (30.3-8.0-7.3) is in somewhat of a funk, averaging only 22.3 PPG over his last four games mbut does that mean the Cavs are "ripe for the taking?" I think not. First of all, the Bulls have brought out the best in LeBron, as he's averaged 33.5 PPG in 10 games vs the Bulls since the beginning of the 2005-06 season. Meanwhile, it's hard to make a real case that the Bulls are even trying any more. Chicago closed to with two games of the East's final playoff spot back on Mar 18 but enter this game 5 1/2-games behind the Hawks, who currently hold the eighth spot, with the both Nets and Pacers also in between Chicago and Atlanta. It's not a very bright outlook. Consider these numbers. Chicago ranks 18th in the league in PPG (97.0) plus dead-last (30 of 30 teams!) in FG percentage. The Bulls enter this game having lost 10 of their last 11 road games, including six straight since winning at Indiana (which played without O'Neal and Tinsley) on Feb 27. In those six losses, Chicago's averaged 97.8 PPG (right at its average) but allowed an average of 110.3 PPG! The Cavs have won 10 of their last 11 home games but have gone just 6-5 ATS during that time. However, considering that they have beaten the Bulls in 12 of their last 15 visits to Cleveland and that Chicago has been outscored by an average of 12.5 PPG in its last six road games, laying the reasonable pointspread seems, well, REASONABLE!
TV Game of the Week
Cle Cavs (6*)
EXPERT:
Ohio st
REASON FOR PICK: U Mass has had an excellent season, considering the huge losses Travis Ford's team suffered from last year's team. Inside, Freeman (14.7-8.3) and Lasme (13.5-9.5) were the A-10's best forward tandem last season, while 6-5 guard Life (11.5) was also a quality player. The 6-8 Brower (12.5-6.7) and the 6-9 Milligan (8.9-5.3) have played well this year but they are NOT Freeman and Lasme. The key to this year's team has been its perimeter play, led by 6-7 swingman Forbes (19.5-7.6-3.0). The starting guard duo consists of PG Lowe (11.9-6.2 APG) and sophomore Harris, who upped his average from 4.5 PPG as a freshman to 18.0 PPG this year. U Mass enters this game 25-10 after its miracle comeback win at Syracuse on Mar 25 and it's 78-66 win over Florida Tuesday night. The Minutemen had won earlier TY in Syracuse 107-100, so they expected the Orangemen to come at them hard. That's exactly what happened, as Syracuse led 43-24 at the half. Syracuse still led by 17 with eight minutes to go but COLLAPSED, as U Mass came back to win, 81-77. Against Florida (two-time defending NCAA champs), U Mass fell behind 36-27 at the half but it could have been worse, as the Minutemen were just 1-of-13 from beyond the arc and at one point went more than 12 minutes without a field goal. The 6-9 Dante Milligan was the catalyst with 17 points, 12 rebounds and several blocks late. The 6-7 Forbes scored 19 points while guards Chris Lowe and Ricky Harris added 16 each. The starters scored all but two points for the Minutemen and I just don't see them matching up with the Buckeyes here. As they've done all year, senior PG Butler (14.9-3.0-5.9) and 7-0 freshman center Koufus (14.2-6.6) have led the way for Ohio State in the NIT. Butler's averaged 15.0 PPG and 5.8 APG and Koufus 17.3 PPg and 5.5 RPG in OSU's four NIT wins. By the way, OSU has won each game by more than double digits, with the average margin of victory coming 14.5 PPG. Joining Butler and Koufus are three vets in the frontcourt and two 6-6 freshman. The 6-8 Hunter (9.7-6.4) and 6-5 swingman Lighty (9.0-3.6-2.4) have started all year and the 6-9 Terwilliger (3.3-2.6) is just one of those players, "every team wants." Then there are freshman Turner (8.1-4.4), who has scored 28 points in OSU's last two NIT games, and Diebler (6.0). Thad Matta's tem is playing excellent defense, allowing its four NIT opponents to average just 63.5 PPG. After allowing NC-Asheville to shot 51.9 percent from the floor (but score just 66 points) in their first game, the Buckeyes have held Cal, Dayton and Ole Miss to make just 40.7 percent of their FG attempts these last three games. Ohio State couldn't beat Florida in LY's NCAA final but like it did against Ole Miss in the semis (led by 27points at one time!), Ohio State will win (and COVER) here vs U Mass, giving the school its second NIT title (won in '86).
NIT Game of the Year
Ohio State (9*)
