THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(3) San Antonio (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (11-3, 9-4-1 ATS)
Two days after holding off San Antonio in a Game 4 upset victory, the Lakers now return home looking to close out the defending champs and punch a ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2004
Los Angeles survived a furious final-minute rally Tuesday night in San Antonio, holding off the Spurs 93-91 as a four-point road underdog to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven series. Behind 30 points from Kobe Bryant and a dominating rebounding effort (46-37), the Lakers never trailed in Game 4. However, key missed free throws and turnovers in the final minute gave the Spurs a chance with less than three seconds left, but a desperation three-pointer by Brent Barry was off the mark, ending San Antonio?s 13-game home winning streak.
The Lakers won despite shooting just 44.7 percent from the field, including missing 14 of 17 shots from three-point range. They also made 10 fewer free throws than the Spurs, committed eight more turnovers and had five fewer assists. But San Antonio?s only significant contributions came from Tim Duncan (29 points, 17 rebounds), Tony Parker (23 points, nine assists) and Barry (23 points, five rebounds), as All-Star Manu Ginobili had just seven points after scoring 30 in the Spurs? Game 3 win.
Los Angeles leads the season series 5-3, and its road victory Tuesday ended a string of seven straight wins by the home team in this rivalry. The Spurs still have the advantage at the betting window this year, going 5-3 ATS. The Lakers tonight will be looking to eliminate San Antonio for the eighth time in the last 11 postseason head-to-head matchups and move to 4-0 in conference finals battles during this run. Also, L.A. coach Phil Jackson is trying to extend an incredible streak in which he has never lost a seven-game postseason series when winning Game 1, going 40-0 to this point.
The Lakers are unbeaten at home in the playoffs, going 7-0, and they?ve won 13 in a row at Staples Center going back to the regular season, including 3-0 SU and ATS against the Spurs. L.A. is also on pointspread streaks of 11-4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 7-2-1 when playing on one day of rest, 10-2-1 following a SU win and 7-2-1 after a pointspread cover. However, the Lakers are still just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams from the Southwest Division and 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference finals contests.
The Spurs, who lost Games 1 and 2 at Staples, are 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) in L.A. this year, and they?re 2-6 on the highway in the postseason (3-5 ATS). Also, dating to the regular season, Gregg Popovich?s club is in the midst of a 3-9 ATS slide on the highway. On the bright side, San Antonio is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 conference finals games and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a non-cover.
All four games in this series have stayed under the posted total, with Tuesday?s 93-91 final falling short of the 192-point total. The under is now 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 8-2 in the last 10, including 4-1 in the last five clashes in Los Angeles.
Furthermore, the Spurs sport ?under? streaks of 7-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 6-0 against the Pacific Division, 6-0 when playing on one day of rest, 11-5 on Thursdays and 36-15 after a SU defeat. For the Lakers, the under is on runs of 7-0 on Thursdays, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Houston (30-24) at St. Louis (31-23)
The Astros send ace Roy Oswalt (4-4, 5.61 ERA) to the mound in the finale of their three-game series at Busch Stadium, while the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Lohse (4-2, 4.26).
The teams have split the first two games of this series, with Houston winning the opener 8-2 on Tuesday and the Cardinals taking last night?s contest 6-1. St. Louis snapped a modest two-game slide with the victory and is now 7-3 in its last 10 and 15-6 in its last 21 against winning teams. However, Tony LaRussa?s club is just 2-5 in its last seven divisional games and 1-4 in its last five on Thursdays
Wednesday?s loss aside, the Astros are still on rolls of 17-8 overall, 8-4 on the highway, 6-2 versus the N.L. Central, 4-1 as an underdog, 19-8 against right-handed starters and 11-2 against winning teams.
This is the third series this season between these two teams, and the Cardinals now hold a 5-3 edge after last night?s win, going 3-2 at Busch Stadium.
Oswalt has struggled all season, giving up at least three runs in 10 of his 11 starts. He?s been especially bad in his last two outings, getting rocked for a total of 11 runs and 22 hits in 12 innings, striking out just five batters as Houston lost 6-2 at Texas and 7-5 at home to the Phillies. On the bright side, Oswalt has pitched at least six innings in eight straight starts.
Oswalt is 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA in six road outings, and the Astros are just 2-6 in his last eight on the highway dating to last year. However, he?s been terrific against St. Louis in his career, going 9-5 with a 2.85 ERA in 24 games (23 starts). In fact, the right-hander has registered 10 straight quality starts against the Redbirds, giving up three earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in every game. That includes an April 26 start at St. Louis, where Oswalt surrendered three runs on five hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in the Astros? 4-3 loss.
Lohse was outstanding in his most recent work at Los Angeles on Saturday, scattering six hits over six scoreless innings, walking none and striking out five in a 4-0 victory. Prior to that, the right-hander held Tampa Bay to three runs (two earned) in six innings, getting a no-decision in the Cardinals? 5-4 home win. Prior to winning those last two games, St. Louis had gone 1-5 in Lohse?s previous six trips to the mound.
Lohse is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA in seven home starts, with the Cardinals posting just a 3-4 record. He?s also just 2-4 with a 3.51 ERA in six lifetime appearances (five starts) against Houston. However, one of the victories came on April 27 at home, when he limited the Astros to a run on four hits in six innings of a 5-1 victory.
The under is 4-2-1 in Lohse?s seven starts at home, 4-2 in Oswalt?s six outings on the road and 7-3 in Oswalt?s last 10 starts versus the Cardinals, including 3-0 in the last three overall. Additionally, 11 of Oswalt?s last 12 starts at Busch Stadium ? including the last five in a row ? have stayed under the total.
For Houston, the under is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 9-3 in division games, 12-6-1 on the highway and 36-18-2 against winning teams. For the Cardinals, the under runs include 5-2 overall, 6-2-1 against winning teams and 36-15-1 on Thursdays. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall and 5-1 in the last six clashes at Busch Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (28-23) at Tampa Bay (32-21)
Two of the hottest teams in the American League kick off a four-game series at Tropicana Field, with the Rays? Edwin Jackson (3-3, 3.47) matching up against Chicago?s John Danks (3-4, 3.00) for the second time this season.
Chicago arrives in Tampa Bay after taking two of three from the archrival Indians in Cleveland, capped by Wednesday?s 6-5 victory. The White Sox are 11-3 in their last 14 games, including 7-1 on the road. They?re also 6-1 in their last seven as an underdog and 4-0 in their last four on Thursday.
Tampa Bay continued its winning ways with Wednesday's 5-3 home win over Texas. The Rays are 14-5 in their last 19 games overall, including 11-2 at the Trop. In fact, they?ve won 17 of their last 19 home games, and their 21-9 home record is the best in the American League and second-best in baseball. Additionally, Tampa is on streaks of 6-0 on Thursday, 7-0 in series-openers and 7-1 as a favorite.
This is Chicago?s second trip to the Trop, having taken two of three in mid-April, with the two victories coming by margins of 9-2 and 6-0, with Danks outdueling Jackson in the latter contest. The White Sox have won seven of the last eight against the Rays, going 6-1 in Tampa Bay during this stretch.
Danks has been rock solid almost the entire season, giving up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts, while allowing just three runs in another. In his most recent outing on Saturday against the Angels, he gave up two runs on five hits in five innings, but was saddled with the 2-0 loss. Despite the southpaw?s impressive numbers, Chicago is just 2-4 in his last six outings.
Danks has been especially good on the road, going 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA in five contests. The victory came at Tampa Bay on April 20, as he pitched seven scoreless innings, yielding just three hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in seven innings. His only other start against the Rays also came at Tropicana Field last June, and he surrendered four runs on four hits in five innings, earning a 5-4 victory.
Jackson scored his first victory since April 10 ? a span of eight starts ? on Saturday, holding Baltimore to three runs on four hits and five walks in five innings en route to an 11-4 home win. Even though the right-hander hasn?t had much to show for it, he?s posted a 1.42 ERA in his last four starts, with Tampa Bay going 3-1.
Jackson is 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA in six home starts, with the Rays going 3-0 in his last three outings in Tampa. In fact, Jackson?s last home loss came against Danks and the Pale Hose in that April 20 contest, with Jackson yielding all six runs in just 4 1/3 innings. He also gave up four runs on nine hits in six innings in Tampa?s 5-4 loss at Chicago last August, giving him an 8.71 career ERA against the White Sox.
The under is 7-1 in Danks? last eight starts overall, 5-1 in his last six on the road and 4-0 in his last four on Thursdays. Also, the under is 14-5-1 in Jackson?s last 20 efforts overall, 10-1 in his last 11 at home and 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. Central.
The White Sox followed up a 10-2 ?under? streak by topping the total in all three games in Cleveland, and the over is 4-0 in their last four on the highway. However, the under for Chicago is on streaks of 11-4 as an underdog, 8-0 on artificial turf, 5-0 against the A.L. East, 7-2-1 on Thursdays and 15-7 against right-handed starters. Also, for the Rays, the under is on streaks of 7-3-1 against the A.L. Central and 7-0 at home against lefty starters.
Finally, the under is 7-1 in the last eight series meetings between these two, including 6-1 in the last seven clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX and UNDER
