Thursday Service Plays 6/26/08

[the duke]

Many Early Games Today.

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour

Good Luck



Comps

Tampa Bay (-120) at FLORIDA Karl Garrett,

How can I even think about playing this game UNDER the posted total?

Last night marked the 4th time in 5 games that the Rays and Marlins combined to go OVER the total this season.

Dating back to last season, these teams have played 11 times, and 8 of the 11 have sailed OVER the posted price.

In games played at Florida, the pair have combined to go OVER in 7 of the 8 meetings!

Finally, the pitching matchup gives no indication that the hitters are going to be baffled, as Matt Garza is just 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA on the road this year, while Florida hurler Mark Hendrickson has been getting drilled all year long, as his 5.73 ERA indicates.

Based on the numbers I have just listed, can you make a case for the UNDER today?

No, I can't either...Take the OVER between Tampa and Florida.

4♦ OVER


Minnesota at SAN DIEGO (-105) Bobby Maxwell

Our FREE play run is at 20-14 over the last 34 days and today we've got a comp play coming with the Padres as they host the Twins in a West coast day game.

The Twins have been rolling lately, winning eight straight, but today we will put our faith in San Diego's youngster Josh Banks (2-1, 1.62 ERA) as he goes up against the Twins' Scott Baker (3-2, 3.47).

Banks has been stellar for the Padres since joining them in late May. And at Petco Park in San Diego, the guy has given up just one run in 14 innings of work as he's 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA. In his lone home start he held the Mets to one run on five hits in six innings of a 2-1 victory.

He last pitched a week ago when he held the Yankees to two runs in 5.1 innings of a 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. The big stage didn't seem to faze the youngster as he gave his team a chance to win the game.

Minnesota has lost three of Baker's last four outings, including his last two on the road. For some reason, the Twins don't like Thursdays, going just 2-8 in their last 10 on Thursday and 1-4 when Baker throws on Thursday.

The Padres are 5-2 at home against right-handed starters and 4-1 on Thursdays. This team likes daytime games at Petco because they can score some runs. The ball travels better and they'll put some runs on the board. Play Banks and the Padres.

4♦ SAN DIEGO



Cincinnati at TORONTO (-105) Chris Jordan
Let's play this one high tonight, as I suspect we're destined for double digits in this series finale.

The over is on winning streaks of 6-1 overall, 9-2 in interleague home games, 5-0 against right-handed starters and 6-1 when the Jays are installed as the underdog in interleague play.

In games involving Cincinnati, the high number is 8-2 in the Reds? last 10 against losing teams, while they're 6-2 in their last eight as the road chalk.

I know the line is virutally a pick, but the aformentioned roles could fit the bill by the time of the first pitch. Hey, the first two games of this series have easily eclipsed the posted price, so there's no reason to believe it won't do the same in this contest.

1♦ OVER


Cincinnati at TORONTO (pick) Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight we like another UNDER in baseball, as we see Cincinnati and Toronto finally cooling off with the offensive production.

Both meetings thus far have gone OVER the posted price, and some would say that this one should also go OVER based on Jesse Litsch's last couple of outings, but we know better.

Litsch is 3-1 at home this year with an ERA of 3.55, and his counterpart Edinson Volquez has been "money" ALL season long, as he is now 10-1, and sports an ERA of 1.74.

The bats have been active the last two night's but tonight it will be the pitchers that set the tone in this game.

Play on the UNDER in Cincy-Toronto.

3♦ UNDER


Carlo Campanella

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at Florida Marlins Jun 26 2008 12:10PM

Prediction: over

Reason: Tampa Bay has gone "Over" the Total in an INCREDIBLE 11 of 12 road games during InterLeague play the past 2 seasons. Expect that trend to continue as we find With 6 of the last 7 meetings between Florida and Tampa Bay also going "Over" the Total.

7* Play On OVER


Jimmy The Moose

Game: New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 2008 7:05PM

Prediction: New York Yankees

Reason: The Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 games. New York has won 5 of their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. New York is 13-5 in their last 18 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 interleague games. New York has won Mussina's last 5 road starts. NY is 9-3 in his last 12 starts overall. NY is 16-7 in his last 23 interleague starts. Pittsburgh is 17-42 in their last 49 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 19-47 in their last 66 interleague games overall. The Pirates are 4-7 in their last 11 games overall. Play on the Yankees

 

[the duke]

Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (959) MIN Twins and (960) SD Padres. Take "(959) MIN Twins".

I finally lost my daily free opinion Wednesday following nine straight winners. New run begins today! Josh Banks has been tremendous for the Padres since his recall. He was basically called up as an emergency fill-in and has pitched his way into a regular rotation spot. This is a pretty big shock to me, as Banks had never exhibited the type of stuff that would play well at the big league level. Fact is, I'm still not convinced, whereas I'm of the belief that what we're seeing from Twins righty Scott Baker is absolutely the real deal. I'm going to back the guy I'm more sure of here, and that makes Baker and the Twins the choice.



Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (963) SF Giants and (964) CLE Indians. Take "Under". A couple of weak offensive teams meet, along with two above average pitchers. Cleveland simply hasn't hit the ball all season, and they are on a 4-2 run under the total. Slugger Victor Martinez hit 25 homers last year and has zero this season! The Giants are on a 6-3-1 run under the total. Starters Matt Cain and Cliff Lee have been impressive all season and they have ERAs under 3 their last 3 starts. Don't look for much offense, Play the Giants/Indians under the total!

 

[the duke]

Comps


Jeff Benton

Wow, what a bad call on the Florida Marlins last night. That snapped a two-game winning streak with the freebies. No worries, as we?ll get back on track by backing our fourth straight sizeable underdog, taking the Giants to complete the three-game sweep at Cleveland.

I backed Barry Zito and San Francisco with a paid selection on Wednesday, and they delivered an easy 4-1 victory. I mentioned in my analysis that there was absolutely no justification for the Indians, whose record is nearly identical to the Giants and who were not starting C.C. Sabathia, to be laying the kind of price they were last night. Well, same premise applies here. Yes, Cleveland is going with Cliff Lee here, and yes, Lee is 10-1 with a 2.45 ERA. But the Tribe are just 3-2 in his five home starts, and Lee has shown cracks recently.

Also, it?s not like San Francisco is handing the ball to some scrub; Matt Cain is a quality hurler, and after a rough start to his season, he?s turning things around of late, going 2-1, 2.95 ERA in last three starts, with both wins coming on the road. In fact, Cain has had a quality start in four of his last five on the road.

Bottom line: The Indians have now dropped three in a row and six of their last eight, and they?re 4-11 in their last 15 interleague games. At the same time, San Francisco has won 11 of its last 15 on the highway, and its road record (20-20) is now identical to Cleveland?s home mark (20-20). Ridiculous value on the visitor in this one.

(Based on a 1♦ to 10♦ rating system)

3♦ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS


Scott Delaney

I Told you the Mets would crush the M's last night - never in doubt.


Tonight we play the Athletics/Phillies game low, as the Under cashes in with no problem.


We sneak peek our Inside the Lines for the best of today's numbers, given we have a limited card, and find that the low number is 13-1-1 in Adam Eaton?s 15 starts this season - a perfect 8-0 in the last eight. The Under is also on a 6-1-1 run on the road this season, and 3-0-1 in his four career starts agaisnt Oakland. The under is also on winning runs of 17-5 in Phillies games, and 9-2 when they're on the highway.


We've seen the first two games of this series stay under the total, so let's bank on another low number to come in today.

1♦ UNDER A'S/PHILLIES


Matt Rivers

Adam Eaton has not been terrible of late but the righty is far from what he used to be with the Padres and will allow too many runs today to give his reeling Phils a chance.

When it comes to talent Charlie Manuel's lineup quite possibly may be second to none. Rollins, Utley and Howard are as good as they come and throw in Burrell and a few others and this Philadelphia team can mash with the best of them. But right now for whatever reason the Phillies are awful. They don't hit, they don't move runners over and overall have been horrific for the last few weeks and if not for the Mets and Braves being just as bad would be far from the top in the NL East.

The A's continue to overachieve this season despite not having a bunch of blue chip players and at home are perenially pretty good. Factor this in with their ace in Rich Harden on the hill against the struggling Phils and there is no reason we will not see a 6-1 type of an Athletics victory thanks to yet another solid Harden outing.

When healthy the Oakland starter is as good as they get. The guy has all of the stuff and today should be flat out too good.


Tony Weston

I?m adding to that tonight as we?re going with the over on the Yankees-Pirates game in Pittsburgh.

The total for tonight is set at 9 and both teams will blow right past that. Consider that in the first two games of the series the teams have totaled 17 then 10 runs.

Also keep in mind that in the Yankees? last four games on the road they?ve combined to total in the double digits each time out as they?ve averaged 13 runs a game.

The Pirates have also been apt to high-scoring games at home recently as they?ve totaled, on average, more than 12 runs a game (12.25).

These two will light things up again and go way past that nine runs.

Take the over easy on this one.


3♦ YANKEES-PIRATES OVER (1♦ to 5♦ Scale)

 

[the duke]

Comps

John Martin

New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Yankees -137

1 Unit on New York Yankees -137
(Listing Mussina and Maholm)

I love the Yankees? chances to win tonight with Mike Mussina over Paul Maholm. The Yankees have now won 7 of their last 8 meetings with the Pirates, including last night?s 10-0 statement victory. Don?t look for New York to just call off the dogs tonight. Mike Mussina has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees this year, going 10-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 2008. He?s 5-1 with a solid 3.50 ERA on the road this season as well. The last time Mussina faced the Pirates it resulted in a complete-game-shutout where he allowed just 5 hits in a 9-0 Yankees? victory. Look for Mussina to bring back some of those memories tonight as he shuts down the Pirates on the road. Cash in with the Yankees as the favorite.


Info Plays

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs-154

3* on Chicago Cubs -154
(Listing Marquis and Liz)

It?s tough to bet against the Cubs considering they have won 15 of their last 16 home games. We aren?t about to bet against them today. Radhames Liz is winless in his last 3 starts with a terrible 7.43 ERA for Baltimore. Jason Marquis has been brilliant, going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA over his last 3 starts for Chicago. Marquis is 18-6 in all home games over the last 2 seasons. It would be idiotic to bet against the Cubs here. So bet Chicago at home.


Steve Janus

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

Texas Rangers +113
A little Texas rivalry on Thursday night as the Astros host the Rangers. There are a few interesting stats in this matchup. First, the Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 games whne the total is set between 9-10.5 while the Astros have lost 7 of 8 in the same situation. The Rangers don't seem to mind playing the underdog and they've proven it by winning 5 of their last 7 of a dog of +110 to +150. Texas has also played well behind Thursday's starter, Kevin Millwood, who is 5-1 in his last 6 for the Rangers, including a 5-0 record as the underdog in those starts. The Astros are still playing very poorly at home this season. Their most recent home streak stands at just 1-5 in their last 6. Houston's starter, Wandy Rodriguez hasn't faired well for the 'Stros over his last 6 appearances where his team is 1-5. I guess it's fair to say the Astros just aren't playing well in any situation, I mean they are 4-12 in their last 16 games against right-handed pitching, which should be a strong point for this team.

 

[the duke]

ARMVIN SPORTS

TEXAS RANGERS 116



Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Red Sox Wednesday night.

Thursday it's the Rays. The deficit is 150 sirignanos.



Hondo

An easy time of it last night with the Rays, who smoked the Fish to cause the wad to expand to 485 geronimos.

Tonight, he'll settle for nothing less than victory from Volquez - 10 units on the Redlegs.

 

[the duke]

INSIDE LAS VEGAS SPORTS SELECTIONS


Chicago Cubs (Marquis) -155** over Baltimore (Liz)


Cincinnati (Volquez) -110** over Toronto (Litsch)


Texas (Millwood) +110** over Houston (Rodriguez)

 

[the duke]

Big Al McMordie

Date/Time: 6/26/2008 1:00PM EST
Pick: Detroit Tigers

Reason: At 1:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the St. Louis Cardinals. It's not too late for the Detroit Tigers. Despite a first half of the season that has been so far below expectations that it's almost impossible to measure, the Tigers find themselves closing in on a .500 record and only five games behind the front running Chicago White Sox in the American League Central Division. Detroit has won 11 of their last 14 games, and has gotten surprising performances from some unlikely sources, one of which is tonight's starter, lefthanded veteran Nate Robertson. Robertson started the season like the team did: very poorly and a major disappointment. Two months into the season, Robertson found himself with a 3-6 record and an ERA of over six runs. He's not going to make the All-Star squad or give John Lackey a run for his money, but Robertson has now won his last three starts in a row and has lowered his ERA by about 1/2 of a run. Cardinal righthander Todd Wellemeyer is going to test his sore pitching arm tonight in his first start since having to leave the game on June 13th with elbow soreness in what turned out to be his worst start of the season. It's a tough spot in which for Wellemeyer to make his comeback as the Detroit bats have really been heating up lately, and the St. Louis bullpen, which will be called on if Wellemeyer can't stay in the game very long, has been atrocious lately. Injuries have absolutely decimated the Cardinal pitching staff this season.



Matt Fargo

Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

I will be riding the Dodgers once again. The pitching has been solid yet again at home, posting a 3.36 ERA which is best in the National League following the four-hit shutout last night from Eric Stults. The bullpen has been the main reason for the solid pitching as that ERA is at 2.65 and now they are coming off a day of rest. The bats are hitting at a .269 clip at Dodger Stadium while of late, they have averaged 4.8 rpg over their last nine games after scoring a total of 11 runs in the previous five games.

The White Sox are struggling away from home this season and this current road trip has not helped. They are 1-4 on this trip and prior to the win on Tuesday, they had dropped nine straight games on the road and are now a dismal 1-10 over their last 11 games away from home. Chicago is hitting .253 on the road and it is averaging a mere 4.0 rpg away from home which is 21st in the Majors. The White Sox have averaged 3.4 rpg over the last five games and they are hitting only .236 against lefties this season.

Clayton Kershaw will look to redeem himself following a below average performance last time out against the Indians. He allowed four runs in just five innings and that came after giving up two runs or fewer in three straight outings. Of his six starts this season, three have been during the day and three have come at night. He has a 6.43 ERA at night while posting a 2.40 ERA during daylight hours. He remains winless but can breakthrough here backed by some solid run support.

Chicago counters with John Danks who has been very solid this season but is still a little inconsistent. Nine of his 15 starts have been quality outings and the reason more have not is due to the fact he has not been able to last long in a lot of games. He has gone past six innings only once in his last 10 starts. Also, the White Sox do not score a lot of runs for him as they are averaging just 4.0 rpg in those 15 starts. Despite allowing just one run over his last two starts, Chicago dropped both games.

Los Angeles Dodgers 1.5 Units

 

[the duke]

EZWINNERS

MLB

2 STAR: (952) FLORIDA (+$106) over Tampa Bay
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $212)

2 STAR: (960) SAN DIEGO (-$107) over Minnesota
(Action) (Risking $214 to win $200)

2 STAR: (961) PHILADELPHIA (+$170) over Oakland
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $340)

2 STAR: (966) PITTSBURGH (+$126) over NY Yankees
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $252)

2 STAR: HOUSTON (-$127) over Texas
(Listing Rodriguez only) (Risking $254 to win $200)

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISORS

Philadelphia (43-36) at Oakland (42-35)

The A?s look to bounce back after last night?s 4-0 loss when they hand the ball to Rich Harden (4-0, 2.44 ERA) in the finale of this three game series against Philadelphia. Wednesday?s setback aside, Oakland is still also on positive streaks of 21-9 as a favorite and 62-24 when hosting N.L. teams at McAfee Coliseum.

The Phillies snapped a six-game losing skid with last night?s victory, but they?re still just 2-8 in their last 10 games after going 14-4 in their previous 18. Also, Philadelphia, which starts Adam Eaton (2-5, 4.94) today, is 5-14 in its last 19 interleague games and 1-6 in its last seven versus the A.L. West.

The home team is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams.

The A?s are 39-14 in Harden?s last 53 starts, including 8-2 in his 10 outings this season (4-0 in the last four). They?re also 41-12 in the right-hander?s last 53 starts as a favorite. Harden got a no-decision in his team?s 7-6 home victory over Florida on Friday, allowing a run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings. That ended a string of six straight quality starts ? three earned runs or fewer allowed in at least six innings pitched ? for the right-hander.

Eaton had a streak of five straight quality starts end in Friday?s 7-1 home loss to the Angels, as he gave up six runs on 12 hits in five innings. Eaton has given up a home run in four straight starts and nine of his last 11, and Philly is 3-6 in his last nine trips to the hill.

Harden is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA at home, and Oakland is 5-2 in his seven starts at McAfee Coliseum. Meanwhile, Eaton is 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA on the road, with the Phillies losing six of his eight games on the highway.

Eaton has faced the A?s four times in his career, posting a 4.91 ERA with Oakland winning three of the four games.

The under is 13-1-1 in Eaton?s 15 starts this season (8-0 in the last eight), 6-1-1 on the road this year and 3-0-1 in his four career starts against the A?s. The under is also on runs of 17-5 for Philadelphia overall and 9-2 for Philadelphia on the road. Finally, the first two games of this series have stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND and UNDER


Cincinnati (36-43) at Toronto (37-42)

Edinson Volquez (10-2, 1.71) takes the hill for the Reds, who snapped a two-game slide with last night?s 6-5, 10-inning victory and now look to take this rubber match north of the border. Despite Wednesday?s win, Cincinnati is still just 3-7 in its last 10 overall, 9-19 in its last 28 on the road, 17-35 in its last 52 games in American League cities and 9-24 in its last 33 against losing teams.

Jesse Litsch (7-4, 4.06) is set to start this finale for the Blue Jays, who have now dropped eight of their last 10, all against the National League. Going back further, Toronto is mired in a 6-16 slump (4-7 at home). On the bright side, the Jays are on hot streaks of 6-0 as a home underdog and 9-4 at home against right-handed starters.

Cincinnati is 12-3 when Volquez starts, including 8-1 in the last nine overall and 4-0 in his last four on the road. Volquez has recorded a quality start in each of his 15 starts, giving up one earned run or fewer in 10 of those contests.

Toronto went 7-3 in Litsch?s first 10 starts, but it has lost the last four, with the right-hander posting a 6.47 ERA during this stretch. Litsch, who gave up six runs in six innings in Saturday?s 6-3 loss in Pittsburgh, has surrendered 10 home runs in his last nine outings, while Volquez hasn?t allowed a long ball in six straight starts.

Both of Volquez?s losses have come on the road, where he is 5-2 with a 1.62 ERA. Meanwhile, Litsch is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in seven home starts.

For Toronto, the over is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 8-2-1 in interleague home games, 5-0 against right-handed starters and 6-1 as an underdog in interleague play. Also, the over is 7-2-1 in the Reds? last nine against losing teams and 6-2 in their last eight as a road chalk. Finally, the first two games of this series have easily soared over the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

[the duke]

Vegas Experts

San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Indians

Look for Cleveland to get back on track this evening behind the one reliable commodity they have left - southpaw Cliff Lee. Lee is unbeaten at home this year and has a 2.00 ERA here at Progressive Field, not to mention the Tribe has won all seven of his starts this season when the total is either 8 or 8.5. While Lee remains one of the best pitchers in baseball, Matt Cain remains one of the worst. The Giants have lost 33 of his last 48 starts overall, including 22 of 32 at night.

Play on: Cleveland

 

[the duke]

Sebastian

5 Tampa Bay (Comp)
20 Detriot Over
20 Cinci
30 Yankees
50 Cleveland -1.5
100 Cubs -1.5

 

[the duke]

David Malinsky

Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Jun 26 2008 3:35PM
PICK: under

REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA/SAN DIEGO Under

We saw a rare explosion of runs in Petco Park last night, which sets us up here in a couple of ways - 1. It keeps the value solid, for while it was an explosion of runs, it was not necessarily an offensive showcase (Minnesota had nine of 15 base-runners score, a rather efficient evening); 2. Because the game was not close in the latter stages, all key bullpen arms are rested and ready, and these two bring some quality arms. That leaves it up to Scott Baker and Jonathan Banks to get things started, and they bring plenty to the table.

We cashed a 4* ticket behind Baker in his last start vs. Arizona, and the best way to set his side of this equation is to go right back to that analysis - ?Scott Baker?s 2-2/3.71 does not raise a lot of eyebrows, and that works in our favor. His command has been outstanding, with a terrific ratio of 42 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed, and in terms of consistency, note that he has only allowed more than three runs once, a windy night in Texas in which Minnesota out-slugged the Rangers 12-6. We certainly do not hold that game against him. He is more than capable of keeping up that form against an Arizona offense that lacks patience (only two teams have more strikeouts), and also confidence away from Chase Field. So we are absolutely buying in at the right time with him, and do not be surprised if it is the first of many such investments to come.?

It indeed was the first of many investments. He continued his command of the strike zone against the Diamondbacks, with seven strikeouts vs. only one walk, and with 16 K?s in his last two starts it shows an emerging confidence in his stuff. If you throw strikes and force the Padres to make things happen with their bats you are on your way here in Petco.

Meanwhile Banks has been nothing short of brilliant since being called up. A 1.62 ERA over 33.1 innings speaks volumes, and as a starter he has had a sparkling ratio of 15 strikeouts vs. only one walk again. Once again we put that control emphasis into play in Petco - if nothing is given away to opposing offenses the challenge of getting around the basis is magnified, and Banks may catch an additional break with Joe Mauer likely to sit out - with a day game following a night game, no DH, and a long plane ride back to Minnesota afterwards, they are scheduling him for a day off (though that is subject to change, of course). And with all of those bullpen arms ready, Banks does not have to be asked to go more than a solid six innings, which he is capable of vs. a Minnesota lineup getting a first look at this stuff.

Although this Park can play a little higher in summer day games, note that it is a mild day in San Diego - the high is not expected to top 67 degrees. That negates any daytime issues, and leaves us with solid value.




Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 26 2008 3:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 WSEX

REASON FOR PICK: 6* CHICAGO/LOS ANGELES Under
After cashing a 6* Under in the opener between these two on Tuesday it was a sin of omission to not come right back last night, but trusting Eric Stults, along with our belief that Gavin Floyd has been an over-achiever, kept us on the sidelines. So when a journeyman left-hander completely shut the White Sox down, not allowing a run or an extra base hit in working his first-ever (and last?) Major League complete game, it speaks volumes about the Chicago issues that we presented on Tuesday. Give the White Sox a setting in which the ball can carry, and they can mash with the best. But put them in a park in which it takes some offensive finesse to score, and it is simply not their game. And that is one of the prime reasons why we are set up for another low-scoring affair today.

How much have those windy offensive explosions on the South Side impacted the overall perception of the White Sox? How about this - they have gone Under in 10 of their last 12 road games, and 24 of the last 33. Now they are also facing Clayton Kershaw at the wrong time, as he slowly develops the polish to go with his outstanding stuff (26 strikeouts in 29 innings). And with Kershaw only allowing three home runs so far, we are not concerned with that aspect of the game, particularly with his lefty presence, and the lack of a DH, keeping Jim Thome sidelined again, to add to the absence of Paul Konerko. And the complete game from Stults leaves all arms available from an outstanding Dodger bullpen.

The Dodgers find runs difficult to come by as well. John Danks has not been raising eyebrows despite a 2.80 ERA over 86.2 innings. And in truth we might even be able to classify him as better than that. Division rival Minnesota saw him in three starts LY, and that helped the Twins to have some good approaches against him this season. But in the 12 starts against anyone other than Minnesota it has been a sparkling 1.72 allowance. So why is there not more respect? Largely because Danks has been in the wrong place at the wrong time in terms of distribution - he has only four wins, and in eight of 15 starts allowed two runs or less without winning. His most recent run has seen him hold the Rockies and Cubs to just one run over 12 innings in his last two starts, with more strikeouts than hits allowed in those games. Yet all he could walk away with were a pair of no-decisions. That helps to make him an under-valued commodity here, and his task could be made even easier if the Dodgers sit Jeff Kent and Russell Martin, as planned.

Like the Dodgers, the White Sox bring a bullpen that is not only strong, but has all key arms rested and ready. That ensures against any late-game shenanigans here in what will be a pitchers afternoon at Chavez Ravine.



Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 2008 7:07PM
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

REASON FOR PICK: 4* CINCINNATI over TORONTO


If there were any questions about Edinson Volquez being able to maintain his lofty numbers they have been answered most affirmatively in his recent outings. Five starts back it was a solid home outing against an Atlanta team that has hit right-handers harder than anyone else in the National League. Four starts back he shut out what had been a sizzling Philadelphia offense at the time, on the road in a hitter?s park. Three starts ago he checked a Florida lineup on three hits, those same Marlins that are #1 in the Major?s in home runs. And the last two have been solid outings against the Red Sox and Yankees. So what are we left with? A pitcher that has clearly been the best in the game this season, taking on a mediocre lineup and a struggling mound opponent. That does not call for this price range.

Here are the Volquez bottom lines - a 10-2/1.71 in which he has been remarkably consistent; how about a 5-2/1.60 on the road and a 5-0/1.83 at home? He has not allowed more than three runs in any start, and in 11 of 14 outings gave up one run or none. A ratio of 110 strikeouts vs. only 66 hits allowed is off the charts, and in 93.1 innings as a starter he has only allowed two home runs. Now a Toronto offense that lacks experience against him becomes the next victim.

We went to the well with a 4* ticket against Jesse Litsch in his last outing, and the bottom line is that Major League hitters are catching up to his limited stuff. Yes, he has great control. But with only 96 strikeouts in 199.2 career innings there is not the kind of pop needed to be anything more than a journeyman. Now hitters are learning to lay off of those pitches on the edges of the strike zone, and when Litsch has to work towards the middle of the plate he is nothing special at all. Over his last four starts it has been an 0-3/6.46, with 33 hits allowed in 23.2 innings, five of them leaving the park. And his particular problems against left-handers (.306 so far in his career) becomes even more pronounced against a Cincinnati offense that will load up from that side.

 

[the duke]

PlusLineSports

Daily Baseball Selection


Baltimore(Liz) vs. Chicago Cubs(Marquis)
Chicago Cubs Runline -1.5 (+120), Moneyline -168


Game time is June 26 at 1:20 pm Central Standard Time(U.S.)

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness


20* IL Game of the Month

The Giants own MLB's worst home record at 14-24 but are now 20-20 on the road after taking the first two games of this their three-game interleague series with the Indians in Cleveland. San Fran has won both games, despite scoring just seven runs. The Indians, who last year won 96 games and led Boston 3-1 in the ALCS (one win away from a World Series appearance), are now 35-43 on the season. They'll open the day in last-place in the AL Central but still just 7 1/2 games back of the first-place White Sox. While tonight's 'price' is a little higher than I usually like to lay, I love the pitching matchup here as well as the game situation. Most are familiar with Matt Cain, who followed a solid rookie year (13-12 in 2006) with a 'nightmare' 2007 season. He didn't pitch all that poorly (7-16 with a 3.65 ERA) but the Giants went 9-23 in his starts and at minus-$1,803 vs the moneyline, ranked dead-last among all MLB starters last season! He's made 16 starts this year and will take a 4-5 mark (team is 6-10 in games) with a 4.32 ERA into this game. His last seven starts have been typical, as he's 2-2 (team is 2-5) with a 4.47 ERA. Going for Cleveland is Cliff Lee. Lee was a mainstay of the Cleveland rotation from 2004-06, winning 46 games with the Indians going 59-39 (.602) in all his starts during that span. Injuries slowed him last season (he didn't make a start after July 26), as he finished 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA. However, Lee has come back healthy this year and has been one of MLB's top pitchers. He allowed just one ER through his first four starts, just four ERs over his first seven and takes a 10-1 (2.45 ERA) over 14 starts (team is 11-3 and plus-$718) into this game. He's 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA over his last six starts (team is 5-1) and while the Indians have struggled at the plate for most of this season (.244 team BA is 29th of 30 teams), they've played well behind Lee, averaging 6.0 RPG in his starts in '08. The Giants are hitting 20 points higher than the Indians as a ateam (.264) but remain one of MLB's lowest scoring teams (4.12 RPG to Cleveland's average of 4.44). Both teams have played poorly in interleague play (each are at 4-10) but after two straight home losses, it's the Indians (behind Lee), who are the play in this one.

IL Game of the Month
20* Cleveland Indians

 

[the duke]

SPORTS KINGZ

MLB:

CUBS -155

CLEVELAND -170

YANKEES -155

OAKLAND -190

 

[the duke]

KBHOOPS

5 units Chicago Soxs UNDER 8( POD)
4 units Florida +110
4 units Cincinnati -110

 

[the duke]

SCOTT FERRALL



CLEVELAND -165 over San Francisco

Cliff Lee's not giving up anything to the Giants in this one against Cain. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS


Pirates +130 over Yankees

Maholm's pitched well lately and the Yanks have struggled against lefty's. Mussina gets a taste of Pittsburgh's bats at PNC. The Bucs are tougher than anyone gives them credit for, especially at home. I'm on THE OVER 8 RUNS


REDS -120 over Jays

Volquez isn't afraid to pitch anywhere. This one won't be easy aginst Litsch. The Reds just play well when Volquez is on the mound-like they did against the Yankees last Friday night when he schooled them in the Bronx


Houston -125 over Texas

Millwodd won't have fun at Minute Maid in this one. Wandy Rodriguez gets it done at home for the Stros over the Rangers. Texas isn't the same when Hamilton is injured

 

[the duke]

MATTY OSHEA

Astros -130 POD

Houston blew one on Wednesday despite a solid pitching performance from Roy Oswalt, and I think Wandy Rodriguez will perform even better on Thursday. Rodriguez has always pitched better at home, and this year is no different. He is 1-2 at Minute Maid Park with a 2.10 ERA in 2008 after going 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA there a year ago. With the Rangers still dealing with a depleted lineup due to injuries to Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley, I think the Astros shut them down and get to Kevin Millwood (1-3 on the road with a 4.40 ERA) to take the series finale.

 

[the duke]

Steve Zukiel

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, June 26, 2008
$50.00 Guaranteed:

Here It Is Folks! Another Historic Guaranteed 70 Unit MLB GOY! Win Or You Pay Nothing! Have Won ALL THREE 70 Unit Plays I Have Released By NEARLY 30 RUNS!!!! 29-14 L43 Overall! First Pitch Goes After 2:00 PM EST!


Philadelphia vs Oakland
Thursday, June 26th, 2008
3:35 pm est 12:35 pm pacific
Guaranteed
70 Unit MLB Game Of The Year
Oakland(-170)

In this contest, my money is on the Oakland A's

This report was done before last night's game was finalized.

These two teams have been heading in opposite directions. The Phillies have lost six straight, getting outscored 31-11 in the process. The A's meanwhile have won three of four and seven of their last 10. The pitching matchup also heavily favors Oakland as they have Rich Harden on the hill against Philadelphia's Adam Eaton. Harden has been all that and a bag of chips this season. The right-hander is a perfect 4-0 while sporting an ERA of 2.44. The A's have had great success with him on the hill as well, having won eight of his 10 overall starts. In fact, Harden has allowed more than two earned runs only twice all season. Adam Eaton meanwhile has been going the other way. Eaten is just 2-5 on the year and sports an ERA of 4.94. Things are even worse on the road, where he is 0-3, the team has won just two of his eight overall road starts, and his ERA is at 5.09. In his last two starts he has gone 0-2 and in just 11 2/3 innings of work, the right-hander has allowed 21 hits and nine runs. YUCK! Harden has owned the NL this season. In three starts, he has gone 2-0, the team has won all three and in 18 2/3 innings, he has allowed just two runs on 10 hits, walking just five while striking out 22. Oakland wins for fun.

OAKLAND A'S OVER THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AS MY GUARANTEED 70 UNIT MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

 

[the duke]

Chris Jordan

500♦ A's Run Line
500♦ Cubs Run Line
500♦ W Sox