Thursday Service Plays 7/3/08

[the duke]

Comps

Philadelphia at ATLANTA (pick) Sports Gambling Hotline

Two games played in this Philly-Atlanta series, two Philadelphia wins, and both games playing OVER the total.

Look for the OVER streak to be halted here, as Cole Hamels and Jair Jurrjens do battle.

Hamels has already thrown a complete game shutout at Atlanta back in the middle of May, and has allowed only 11 runs to the Braves over his last 36 innings of work against them dating back to last season.

We all know that Jurrjens hasn't allowed an earned run in nearly 22 innings of work over his last 3 starts. With this being the first time the Phils are seeing Jurrjens, we expect him to add a few more scoreless frames to his account.

These teams have met 8 times this season, and 5 of the 8 have played LOW.

This one does as well.

Play on the UNDER.

3♦ UNDER


Florida at COLORADO (-130) Karl Garrett

Tonight I have a total for you, as I look for the Marlins and Rockies to put up some runs at Coors Field.

We all know that the Marlins can swing the sticks, and with Jeff Francis continuing to have an off-year, the G-Man has to believe Florida is going to get their fair share in this one.

Francis comes into this one having allowed 11 runs over his last 10 innings, which has raised his season ERA to a juicy 5.67.

Andrew Miller counters with 7 runs allowed in his last 10 innings of work, and his season ERA is at 5.05 for the season.

Colorado's bats have been getting healthy lately, and ALL 3 series meetings last year in the thin Denver air went OVER the posted total.

Take the OVER in the series opener.

5♦ OVER



Detroit (-130) at SEATTLE Chris Jordan

Big winner with the Yanks on the Run Line; tonight we roll with the the Tigers in Seattle. We're listing both Justin Verlander and Carlos Silva, as the former has righted his ship after a terrible start to the season.

Silva may be coming off his first win in 13 starts, but he's dropped both of his starts against Detroit this season, giving up 14 runs in those games back in May. Couple that with the fact the Tigers have won eight of the last 10 meetings, and it looks like an easy win with the boys from Motown.

Meanwhile, Verlander is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts. He is also 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in six career starts against the M's. Today he avenges a May 31 loss in Seattle.

5♦ TIGERS

 

[the duke]

Comps

Nelly

Milwaukee (Parra) + over Arizona (Webb)

Manny Parra has been absolutely outstanding for the Brewers and Milwaukee has won six consecutive starts. In four of those outings he allowed one run or less and he has delivered seven innings of shutout ball in two of his last three starts. Parra does occasionally walk batters but Arizona is not an overly patient team with the third most strikeouts in baseball. Parra allowed just one run and four hits earlier this season against Arizona and the Diamondbacks are hitting .193 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching. Brandon Webb has fallen out of his early season form and he has allowed 17 runs in his past four starts. His ERA at home is nearly a full point higher than on the road and Arizona is just 3-5 in his last eight starts following his perfect start to the year. Arizona is just 14-26 in the last 40 games and the Diamondbacks are greatly overvalued against one of the top young pitchers in baseball.

Join Nelly's Sportsline for a great evening selection for Thursday's abbreviated schedule. We had great results in June and we are ready to deliver a great start to your holiday weekend tonight.


Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: New York over Boston
The last I checked the staggering Yankees were approximately 3-27 with men in scoring position, I?m sure that has been elevated by the time Boston faces off at the Bronx Palace Thursday evening. We do know, Boston is gifted and has many edges when facing the once powerful Yankees, but I still like our chances with the home club. Remember the Yankees are a perfect 4-0 L4 with Andy Pettitte versus Boston.



Jorge Gonzalez


CHAD BILLINGSLEY (R) vs. BRANDON BACKE (R)

Play Los Angeles 1 unit

Los Angeles Dodgers -124
The Dodgers have seen some life in their offense during their series with the Houston Astros. Over the last two games the Dodgers have scored 11 runs in their two games after scoring just `14 over the seven previous games. The Dodgers have had solid pitching and will send their hottest pitcher to the mound in Chad Billingsley. Over the last three games, Billingsley has a prefect record of 3-0, a stingy ERA of 1.83 and 20 strikeouts. The Dodgers have moved 1 1/2 half games behind the division lead Arizona Diamondbacks. Take the Dodgers to stay motivated and win in this spot.



James Patrick?s Diamond Club

A?s vs. White Sox 8:10 p.m. est.
Chisox are a solid 14-3 in Javie Vazquez home starts and a solid 8-1 in Thursday action. A?s have had problems in Chi-Town going 2-6 in their visits. Our Thursday complimentary selection is #920 Chicago White Sox.

 

[the duke]

Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (901) LA Dodgers and (902) HOU Astros. Take "(901) LA Dodgers"0! The Dodgers still can't hit, but at least they're getting some pitching. Their recent 4-2 "surge" has them knocking on the first place door in the thoroughly mediocre NL West. LA has a great shot at another win today with Chad Billingsley taking on Houston's struggling Brandon Backe. Backe's command issues have returned and he's simply not dominating enough to be issuing free passes to opposing hitters. I believe laying the spot with Billingsley and the Dodgers is the play.




Jim Feist.

Myfree pick of the day is the game between (911) FLA Marlins and (912) COL Rockies. Take "Under". Coors Field in Colorado has the reputation of a high scoring hitter's park, but notice that the Rockies are 23-17 under the total at home. A pair of good pitchers take the hill here in Jeff Francis and Andrew Miller. The Rockies have never faced the young Miller, while Francis has a 2.25 career ERA against Florida. Miller's last 4 starts the Marlins are 3-0-1 under the total. Play the Marlins/Rockies under the total!

 

[the duke]

SPORTS KINGZ


MLB

CINCY -150

DETROIT -140

CUBS +120

YANKEES -130

 

[the duke]

PLUSLINE SPORTS

Daily Baseball Selection


Detroit(Verlander) vs. Seattle(Silva)

Detroit-1.5(+125) Moneyline (-130)

Game Time: July 3 @ 8:10 pm CST

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess

Thur (MLB) D'Backs
Thur (MLB) Cubs


Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Tigers yesterday.

Today it's the Red Sox. The deficit is 170 sirignanos.



ARMVIN SPORTS

KANSAS CITY ROYALS 125

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (J.Duchsherer) at
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (J.Vazquez) Over 8



HONDO


Tonight, he'll try the two heroic hurlers from Sat urday night's epic duel in Oakland - Lincecum and Duchscherer (or Chsch, as he's known for short). Ten units apiece on the Giants New York Giants and A's.

 

[the duke]

SCOTT FERRALL


NY Yankees -130 over Boston

Pettitte has been on fire. He's won 4 straight and the Red Sox have been getting their asses kicked by the Rays in St.Pete. UNDER 9.5 RUNS--Lester is 6-3 and both pitchers have ERA's under 4.


Kansas City +120 over Baltimore

Davies is 3-1 and his ERA is 3.34. The Royals haven't been playing badly. The easy snag is Olson, but I bet everyone gets burned that takes him. Jump on the OVER 9.5 RUNS


OAKLAND +110 over CHISOX

Duchsherer has been amazing. He's got an ERA of 1.91 and I say he knocks off the favored Vazquez and keep it UNDER 8 RUNS


Seattle +125 over Detroit

Upset city here. Cross your fingers and hope SILVA doesn't blow as usual. Both he and Verlander are 4-9. POUND THE OVER 8.5 RUNS

 

[the duke]

Comps

Tony Weston

Well, I?m getting back to winning right now as I?m finishing up this Giants-Cubs series in San Francisco. I?m 2-1 so far in this series and I?m nailing tonight?s game as the Giants will even out this series.

While the Cubs have taken two of the first three in this one, the difference tonight will be Giants? pitcher Tim Lincecum. So far this season Lincecum is 9-1 with a 2.38 ERA and the Giants are 11-5 in his 16 starts.

In seven home starts Lincecum is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA and the Giants are 5-2 in that seven-game stretch. San Francisco is also 6-2 in his last eight starts.

Opposite Lincecum tonight will be the Cubs? Sean Gallagher, who is 3-3 this season with a 4.36 ERA. In his last four starts he?s 0-2 with two no decisions, while the Cubs are 0-4. On the road he?s 0-3 in five starts with a 4.99 ERA.

Pencil in Lincecum as your starting pitcher and take the Giants at home tonight.

3♦ GIANTS (1♦ to 5♦ Scale)


Jason Lowry

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves +103

We look for the Braves to snap out of their funk on Thursday when they send arguably their best starter this season in Jair Jurrjens who hasn't given up and earned run in his last 3 starts. The Braves are 72-37 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better since 1997, and 24-9 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. Plus Jurriens is a perfect 8-0 against the money line in home games this season, and 13-3 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Braves in a good one!

 

[the duke]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (50-37) at N.Y. Yankees (45-40)
Fresh off getting swept in Tampa Bay, the Red Sox head north to the Bronx to battle their archrivals in the opener of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium. Boston, which will send left-hander Jon Lester (6-3, 3.48 ERA) to the mound tonight, blew a 4-1 lead in Tampa last night and fell 7-4. The Red Sox are in the midst of a five-game losing skid (all on the road), which matches their longest skid of the season
Boston is also mired in funks of 1-7 in series openers and 8-21 on the road against winning teams. On the bright side, Terry Francona?s squad is on hot streaks of 12-4 on the highway against left-handers, 22-7 overall against left-handers, 11-2 behind Lester against A.L. East foes and 36-17 in Thursday contests.
The Yankees dropped the first two games of a three-game home series against Texas, then blasted the Rangers 18-7 on Wednesday night o avoid the sweep. Still, New York is just 3-4 in its last seven games, 2-5 in its last seven at Yankee Stadium and 0-4 in its last four series openers. However, Joe Girardi?s squad is on lengthy runs 102-41 at home against lefties and 65-26 behind Pettitte at home.
Going back to last season, the Yankees have won five of the last six head-to-head battles with the Sox in New York. Also, the Yanks are 4-0 in Pettitte?s last four starts against Boston overall and 9-3 in his last 12 at home versus the Sox.
Lester, who has a no-hitter to his credit this season, hasn?t lost since May 25, going 3-0 with three no-decisions as the Red Sox put up a 5-1 mark in that stretch. The 24-year-old got pounded in his last start, though, allowing six runs on nine hits in five innings of an 11-10 loss at Houston on Saturday. That halted a four-start stretch in which he?d allowed just five earned runs over 27 2/3 innings (3-0, 1.67 ERA).
Lester is 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA and five no-decisions in nine road starts this year. He?s faced New York just once in his career, and that was back in 2006 when he got roughed up for eight runs (seven earned) in just 3 2/3 innings but got a no-decision in Boston?s 14-11 home loss.
The Yankees have won five in a row and seven of their last eight behind Pettitte, who has posted four straight wins and gone at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. Since getting shelled for 10 runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings at Kansas City on June 7, Pettitte has allowed just three earned runs over 27 innings during his current four-game win streak, good for a stunning 1.00 ERA.
Pettitte is 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA in eight home starts this year, and this will be his first 2008 start against Boston. He is 15-6 with a 3.45 ERA in 29 career appearances (27 starts) against the Sox.
For New York, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 12-4 in division play, 11-3 with Pettitte throwing at home and 23-8 behind Pettitte overall. The under is also 6-3-1 in Boston?s last 10 games overall and 15-7-2 in Lester?s last 24 starts. In this rivalry, though, the over is 6-1 with Pettitte starting against the Red Sox.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES



Oakland (45-39) at Chicago White Sox (49-35)
The streaking White Sox will hand the ball to right-hander Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.49 ERA) to open a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field against the Athletics, who will counter with stingy right-hander Justin Duchscherer (8-5, 1.91). Chicago wrapped up a three-game sweep of Cleveland with Wednesday?s dramatic 6-5, 10-inning victory courtesy of a walk-off homer by A.J. Pierzynski. The White Sox have won seven in a row and are 37-15 at home dating to last season (29-11 this year). They?re also 10-1 behind Vazquez in series openers and 14-3 in Vazquez?s last 17 home starts.
Oakland completed a three-game trip at the Los Angeles Angels with Wednesday?s 7-4 loss. The A?s have lost four of their last five games, but they have won six straight series openers, and they?re 6-0 in Duchscherer?s last six starts against winning teams.
Oakland is 42-18 in the last 60 meetings with the White Sox, including 5-1 in the last six. However, Chicago is 6-2 in its last eight home games against the Athletics, splitting a two-game series at U.S. Cellular in mid-April.
The White Sox have alternated wins and losses in Vazquez?s last seven starts, fending off the Cubs 6-5 Saturday at home. In that contest, Vazquez got a no-decision, allowing all five runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings. Vazquez is 2-3 with a no-decision in his last six starts, and in his last five outings, he?s allowed a combined 23 runs in 27 2/3 innings for a bloated 7.67 ERA.
Vazquez is 5-1 with a 4.68 ERA in eight home starts this year, and he?s 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA in five career starts against Oakland.
Duchscherer had his four-game winning streak snapped in his last outing Saturday, despite another sterling effort. The 30-year-old allowed just one run on two hits in eight innings, but he got no offensive support in a 1-0 home loss to San Francisco. The right-hander has given up just one earned run in each of his last four games and hasn?t yielded more than two since May 18 ? a stretch of seven starts. He?s thrown at least six innings in each of his last seven starts (eight innings three times), allowing a total of eight earned runs in 51 1/3 innings, for a minuscule 1.41 ERA.
Despite a 2.52 road ERA this year, Duchscherer is just 2-4 in six starts. He?s 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 13 relief appearances against Chicago, but this will be his first start.
For Oakland, the under is on streaks of 6-3 overall, 9-2 in series openers, 8-2 as an underdog and 5-1 versus right-handed starters. The under is also 5-1 in the last six in this rivalry. Conversely, the over is 7-2 in Chicago?s last nine at home, and 10 of Vazquez?s last 11 starts at U.S. Cellular have hurdled the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

 

[kozski61]

Nostridomus

Thursday's Selections

MLB-LA/Houst OVER 8.5 -110
MLB-Arizona -160
MLB-Atlanta +105
MLB-Cincinnati -150
MLB-Boston +120
MLB-Oakland +110
MLB-Det/Seat OVER 8.5 -115



Vegas Experts

Oakland A's at Chicago White Sox

Oakland's Justin Duchscherer has posted some tremendous numbers this season, but most of the damage has come at home. In fact, he's just 2-4 on the road this season. This is a battle of two teams headed in opposite directions. The A's have lost four of five while the White Sox have won six straight. Starter Javier Vazquez loves pitching at home, as evidenced by a 10-1 team start record in the home favorite role.

Play on: Chicago White Sox



Dunkel Index: Baseball

Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at Houston
The Astros look to earn a split in the series and build on their 6-4 record as a home underdog listed between +100 and +125. Houston is the underdog pick according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored straight up by 1.

Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115).




Dunkel Index: Baseball

Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at Houston
The Astros look to earn a split in the series and build on their 6-4 record as a home underdog listed between +100 and +125. Houston is the underdog pick according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored straight up by 1.

Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115).

Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, JULY 3
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.679; Houston (Backe) 14.789
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Under

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.273; Arizona (Webb) 15.570
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gallagher) 14.174; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.934
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.097; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.088
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.446; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.805
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Under

Game 911-912: Florida at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Redman) 14.988; Colorado (Redman) 13.577
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over

Game 913-914: NY Mets at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 16.364; St. Louis (Boggs) 15.090
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Under

Game 915-916: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.819; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.829
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 16.162; Baltimore (Olson) 15.003
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+125); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 15.740; White Sox (Vazquez) 14.674
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.655; Seattle (Silva) 15.746
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under




MATT RIVERS

Take the Giants at home.

As I said yesterday I am the last person to back this poor Giants squad but I do have to give them a little credit as they have not been as horrific as I have thought for the bulk of the season. Bruce Bochy has probably gotten the most out of this not very talented squad but they have been overall better than both the Rockies and Padres and at home plus some money here, why not!??!?

The Cubbies are obviously the clear better and more well balanced overall team but without Soriano and Ramirez they are hampered a ton as Derrek Lee does not have his protection in the lineup and truly should not score a run today against a guy in Tim Lincecum who has absolutely exploded from young phenom with potential status to the probably Cy Young winner at the halfway point.

Lincecum is an absolute budding superstar right now and without Lee's mates healthy the Cubbies are not the same team and they have really not even been that good away from Wrigley to begin with.

I do not mind Sean Gallagher as the righty is alright. But on the road here should not come close to keeping pace with Lincecum. I can see Gallagher hurling six innings and allowing three runs but that just will not cut it in this spot.

It's a fairly hefty price to lay with a bad team but the Giants have not been atrocious and should be able to take care of their ace and provide him with another win today against a depleted Chicago squad.




TOM FREESE

Blue Line Club

Detroit vs. Seattle (10:10pm)
Detroit is 43-17 their last 60 games as favorites of -125 or higher and they are 7-0 their last 7 games as road favorites. The Tigers are 25-10 vs. a starter that has a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 26-11 with Justin Verlander vs. losing teams. Seattle is 3-10 their last 13 home games and they are 6-16 off a win. The Mariners are 1-7 in the last 8 starts made by Carlos Silva and they are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.

PLAY ON DETROIT - (Verlander vs. Silva)



NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS

Boston @ NY Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM EST
Pick: OVER 9.5




GAMEDAY SPORTS NETWORK

NY Mets @ St Louis
Pick: OVER 9
Time: 8:15 PM EST



VEGASSI

Cubs @ San Francisco
Picks: UNDER 7.5
Time: 7:05 PM EST




ALEX SMART

New York Yankees

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness

Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (4-1 s/June 4) $35.00
Larry doesn't often call a game an "Oddsmaker's Error" but since June 4, he's gone 4-1 when he has! This week has already seen Larry 'pounce' on two Oddsmaker's Error plays, winning with Arizona on Monday and the LAA on Tuesday. Join Larry as his 'ASSAULT' on MLB's moneyline continues tonight with yet another GUARANTEED winner!

Atlanta Braves

 

[the duke]

WILD BILL

Astros +120 (5 units)
Arizona -165 (5 units)
SF -135 (5 units)
Atlanta +105 (5 units)
White Sox -125 (5 units)

 

[the duke]

Tony Karpinski

10* Classic Mismatch Burial

Thursday Night 10* MLB Classic Pitching Burial. Tony Karpinski is ready for a huge night of baseball. Tony has a HUGE best bet play in night-time action. TonyK has zeroed in on a tremendous mismatch on the "bump" and this strong selection also comes with full analysis. Grab this guaranteed winner now for just $25.

Boston RedSox

 

[the duke]

ER Sports

Thursday MLB O/U Playmaker (+14.65 Since 6/1): $29
Erin Rynning continues to crush the market in all sports banking +128 units since 2006 and has been stellar in Baseball Since June 1st banking +14.65 units in MLB. Get his MLB O/U Playmaker Report for $29 and if it doesn't win ER's next report is yours free.

Phillies/Braves under

 

[the duke]

EZWINNERS

MLB

1 STAR: (906) SAN FRANCISCO (-$128) over Chicago
(Listing Lincecum only)
(Risking $128 to win $100)
6:05PM Central Time

1 STAR: (916) NY YANKEES (-$128) over Boston
(Listing Pettitte only)
(Risking $126 to win $100)
6:05PM Central Time

1 STAR: (914) ST. LOUIS (-$109) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $109 to win $100)
7:15PM Central Time

1 STAR: (903) MILWAUKEE (+$145) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $145)
2:40PM Central Time



CFL

5 STAR: (404) EDMONTON (+2) over Calgary
(Risking $550 to win $500)


2 STAR: (402) TORONTO (-9.5) over Hamilton
(Risking $220 to win $200)

 

[the duke]

ROCKDEMAN

FLORIDA MARLINS

PHILLIES / BRAVES UNDER 8

DODGERS / ASTROS UNDER 8.5

 

[kozski61]

KM Computer Plays

Top Play
Kansas City Royals Under 9.5 5

Medium Play
Chicago Cubs Over 7.0 3

Regular Play
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: -129.0)
Milwaukee Brewers (M: 154.0)
Chicago Cubs (M: 126.0)
New York Yankees (M: -141.0)
Baltimore Orioles (M: -149.0)
Cincinnati Reds (M: -152.0)
Philadelphia Phillie (M: -116.0)
Oakland Athletics (M: 116.0)
Seattle Mariners (M: 126.0)
Washington Nationals Under 9.0
Philadelphia Phillie Under 7.5
Florida Marlins Under 10.5

Last 4 Days
32-10 +37.5

totals 18-6 +19
sides 14-4 +18.5





Erin Rynning / Playmaker

under Atl-Philly



RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Pick # 1 Hamilton Tigercats (10.0)




Michael Cannon
(1-4 last two days)

Thursday's Plays...


15 Dime ?

A?s (With Duchscherer as listed pitcher)

Take the A?s for the road win tonight over the White Sox.

Oakland will start Justin Duchscherer and he?s been outstanding this season. The right-hander is 8-5 with a 1.91 ERA in 13 games this season, allowing only 59 hits and 19 walks in 85 innings. He?s also given up just four homeruns.

Look, in this day and age any time a pitcher can boast a WHIP under 1.00 it?s saying something.

Duchscherer has also fared well against the White Sox in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA.

The White Sox will counter with Javier Vazquez, and he has struggled recently. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three games, issuing 10 walks in just 16 1-3 innings. In five lifetime games Vazquez is 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA against the A?s.

Take Oakland as they grab the road win.


5 Dime ?

GIANTS (With Lincecum as listed pitcher)

Take the Giants for the home win over the Cubs tonight.

The Giants aren?t much; I?ll give you that. But Tim Lincecum is such a dominant pitcher that he immediately makes the Giants better overall, much like Barry Bonds used to do for them as a hitter.

There aren?t enough superlatives for me to throw out there about Lincecum, so his overall stats will suffice for now. The right-hander sports a 9-1 record with a 2.38 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 109 2-3 innings.

The Cubs will counter that with Sean Gallagher, who is 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA. The right-hander isn?t terrible, but he?s not going to outpitch Lincecum.

Take the Giants as they grab the home win.


YANKEES (With Pettitte as listed pitcher)

Take the Yankees for the home win tonight over the Red Sox.

Boston is reeling, having just been swept by the Rays and now they have to travel to the Bronx to take on their hated rivals.

The good news, they?ll be fired up for this matchup.

The bad news, they?ll be going against a rejuvenated Andy Pettitte.

Pettitte is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts. The left-hander has also pitched great against Boston in his career, going 15-6 with a 3.45 ERA in 27 lifetime games.

Boston will counter with Jon Lester and he hasn?t done a bad job at all this year, going 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA. But he?s coming into the lion?s den tonight, and the Yankees finally look like they?re breaking out of their mini-offensive slump after erupting for 19 runs last night.

Pettitte + good offense = bad day for Boston.

Take the Yankees as they grab the home win.





Smooth44

WHITE SOX -120
MILWAUKEE +145 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***




Thu, 07/03/08 - 2:05 PMNick "BookieKiller" Parsons | MLB Total
double-dime bet902 HOU / 901 LOS Over 8.5 Bodog





Thu, 07/03/08 - 3:40 PMKing Creole | MLB Total
double-dime bet904 ARI / 903 MIL Under 8 SportBet
Analysis: 3:40pm ET / MILWAUKEE Brewers with Parra @ ARIZONA Diamondbacks with Webb
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL






King Maker Play's #1 and #2

The Los Angeles Dodgers -125

The Dodgers/Astros UNDER 8.5 -120





Seabass

20* LAD
20* FLA
200* CINN
200* CUBS




Dwayne Bryant this guy is 8-2 on the money lines over the last ten days
Thursday, July 3, 2008

8:10 PM ET
MLB
Oakland A's (Duchscherer) at Chicago White Sox (Vazquez)
The Pick: Oakland A's (listed pitchers) +115
Justin Duchscherer has been phenomenal for the A's this season. Duchscherer has allowed only four homeruns in his 13 starts. He owns a 1.91 ERA on the season, including 1.64 at night and 1.45 last month
(4-1). Opponents are batting just .197 against Duchscherer, including .185 at night and .165 last month. Opponents slugging percentage is a very weak .281, including .267 at night and .252 last month. Opponents on-base percentage is also low (.258) and that includes .227 at night and .232 last month. As you can tell by everything I just mentioned, Duchscherer has gotten better with each passing month (pretty scary for his opponents). Duchscherer also has the advantage of facing the ChiSox for the first time.
The White Sox send Javier Vazquez to the hill. Vazquez may be 5-1 at home, but his 4.68 ERA shows him to be quite beatable. He owns a 4.95 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at night and he had a terrible June, posting a 7.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts. Opponents are batting .277 against Vazquez this season, including .285 at night and a whopping .330 last month. Opponents own a .334 on-base percentage (.348 at night, .409 last month) and .458 slugging percentage (.489 at night, .574 last month) against Vazquez this season. Compare those numbers to Duchscherer's numbers!
These are clearly two pitchers heading in opposite directions. The White Sox are clearly the better hitting team, so Oakland is going to need pitching if they expect to win even one game in this four-game series. Having said that, tonight looks like their best chance.
Take Oakland and Duchscherer over the White Sox and Vazquez

 

[the duke]

The Hitman

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San Francisco w/Lincecum -135 7:05 EST

 

[the duke]

Ben Burns

Afternoon BLOWOUT

Arizona Diamondbacks

 

[the duke]

The Prez


Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: under

TITLE: 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
REASON FOR PICK:

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers: Manny Parra vs. Brandon Webb
Umpire: Adrian Johnson
Conditions: Hot -- the roof will be closed for this afternoon tilt in the desert

Manny Parra (8-2, 3.95) has won six consecutive outings, posting a 2.41 ERA, and is unbeaten in 10 starts since losing at Houston on May 3. The rookie left-hander has given up three runs in his last 19 innings. He held the Diamondbacks to one run and four hits in seven innings on June 4, tying a career high with eight strikeouts in a 10-1 win.

Parra, the junior college player of the year by Baseball America in 2002 and the Milwaukee Brewers minor-league pitcher of the year last season included being voted the second best prospect in the organization, is finally figuring things out. The southpaw threw seven innings and allowed two hits and no runs while striking out six against the Twins, to end their 10-game winning streak. He's got dominating stuff. He's one of those pitchers that when he comes to the ballpark, he's got a chance to go nine innings.

The pre-season Parra hype has died down, the Brewers have their No. 2 starter, and he has the confidence when he takes the mound to win. Since sitting with a 5.79 ERA after a May 9 start, Parra has a 2.80 ERA in his last nine outings. The bad? The rookie has just a 73 strikeouts to 49 bases on balls. A general rule: left-handers with good stuff are good investments. Back Parra and let his talent work around the mediocre peripherals.

Brandon Webb (12-4, 3.21 ERA) is 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in eight games since opening the season 9-0. The right-handed sinkerballer equaled a season high with eight strikeouts versus Florida on Saturday, allowing two runs in six innings of a 6-2 victory. The right-hander is facing Milwaukee for the first time this season. Webb is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts versus the Brewers, and has never lost in four outings against them in Arizona.

The talk around the handicapping water cooler is that Webb isn't the same pitcher that won the Cy Young in 2006 -- I have confidence in Webb and Team Prez sources report that the so-called undisclosed injury-whispers are bogus. Webb has a 7.16 ERA in this last three starts to go with a 15 strikeouts to nine strikeouts 16.1 innings. These were acquired during a recent dead-arm slump. The only proof that Webb might be laboring or suffering a minor injury that could have changed his approach or altered his delivery was the ball he took off the hip by a Carlos Delgado line drive three starts ago. This very well could be the reason for a couple of poor starts, but his last outing against Florida offered no evidence he is hurting.

Is it possible that Webb is holding back from telling the team about a possible hip injury? No - not according to our sources. The coaches know him well enough that if he was hurting, it would affect his mechanics ? the staff would have noticed.

Webb returns home, where he's more than comfortable pitching to the elements of a closed Chase Field roof. In seven home starts Webb is 6-1, the team is 6-1 in those starts, and his ERA is a tidy 3.88.

Webb versus Milwaukee hitters:
Bill Hall is 1-for-7
J.J. Hardy is 4-for-11; all singles
Corey Hart has never hit against Webb and he isn't likely to start today
Jason Kendall is 2-or-10
Rickie Weeks is 1-for-11
Russell Branyan is 5-for-9 with three extra base hits.
Ryan J. Braun is 0-for-3
Mike Cameron is 8-for-24 (.234) with a home run at Milwaukee
Craig Counsell is 0-for-4
Prince Fielder is 6-for-10

It is a mixed bag when looking at the numbers the Brewers have accumulated against Webb, but holding down the top and the middle of the order has proved to be something Webb can do. His 4-0 record at home speaks volumes. Any success that Milwaukee has had against Webb has come on the road.

Weeks can't figure out Webb, never has. Fielder does have six hits against Webb in 10 at-bats, but only one of those did any damage; a home run in Milwaukee. And Russell Branyan, who has done his best Babe Ruth imitation the last month-plus, is the streakiest hitter on this Brewers team save Bill Hall who can't hit right-handed pitching.

Parra versus Arizona hitters:
The Diamondbacks, who are a better hitting team against left-handed starters are 5-for-20 combined against Parra - but all five hits are singles.

Adrian Johnson is a solid balls and strikes umpire. He is a huge asset for Webb and Parra today. Both pitchers need some help from the home plate umpire to be dominating. Webb needs the low strike and Parra would like to have the black on the outside of the plate to right-handed hitters. Johnson supplies both. In Johnsons last four appearances behind home plate he has taken the following pitchers UNDER the total. No surprise that D. Lowe and John Lackey went under the seven, but Greg Smith and Kyle Kendrick combined for four runs; Greg Maddux and E. Bonine stayed UNDER; the Wild Thing from Colorado U. Jimenez and the Braves Jair Jurrjens stayed UNDER too. The UNDER is 20-8 in Johnsons last 28 games behind home plate.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter; is 9-3 in Brewers last 12 games as an underdog.

The UNDER is 41-19-3 in Webbs last 63 starts vs. a team with a winning record and is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

The Diamondbacks are missing some key players to injury, and both pitchers have the ability (especially with Johnson behind the plate) to go nine innings. When two pitchers meet with the talent to throw a complete game, with a pitcher-friendly umpire, backing a reasonable UNDER is always favorable. The Vegas number of 8 (-105) is more than reasonable for these two pitchers and the matchups this afternoon in Arizona.

5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Arizona




Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Jul 3 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under

TITLE: 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Andy Pettitte
Umpire: Unannounced
Conditions: 85 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out to left field.

Boston is 3-2 against New York this season. But that is all due to the hitting of their left fielder, Manny Ramirez. ManRam (10-for-19 with three homers and eight RBIs against the Yankees in 2008) desperately needs to break out of his current funk if Boston is to be competitive on the road. Manny has four straight multihit games against the Yanks but was hitless in 11 at-bats in the Tampa Bay series.

Andy Pettitte (9-5, 3.98 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last four outings. The southpaw hasn't lost since May 23 and is aiming for his seventh straight win without a loss. The veteran left-hander won Saturday by allowing two runs in six innings in a 3-2 win over the New York Mets. He was outstanding in the effort and his peripherals this year are as good, or better, than in some of the lefty's most successful campaigns.

He is 6-0 in his last 8 starts dating back to May 23. During those 7 starts, Pettitte has a 3.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 6.8 K rate. One of those games was a very unlucky 10 hit-10 earned run outing against the Royals and he's thrown eight quality starts in his last 10 appearances.

Pettitte hasn't pitched against the Red Sox this season. He is better right now than he was last year at this time when he recorded a 2-1 record with a 5.40 ERA in six starts against Boston.

Jon Lester (6-3, 3.48) is 3-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his last six starts. Lester's worst outing of that stretch, though, came Saturday at Houston as he was tagged for a season-high six runs over five innings in an 11-10 loss. However, he pitched much better than his line indicates.

The Yankees aren't as productive against left-handed starters despite their 14-13 overall versus southpaws.

The Red Sox are playing shorthanded and their best hitter is slumping.

The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Lesters last 13 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is 11-2 in Pettittes last 13 starts as a home favorite.

Tonight's game in New York won't resemble last night?s slugfest. Expect a good old fashion pitching dual between two good left-handers. Both teams are desperately trying to keep pace with the red hot Tampa Bay Rays. While the wind is blowing towards death valley (the left field power alley in Ruth's house) all balls hit to right field tonight will die in flight.

6 UNIT Play on UNDER in New York




New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals Jul 3 2008 8:15PM
PICK: St Louis Cardinals

TITLE: 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
Pitchers: Mike Pelfrey vs. Mitchell Boggs
Umpire: Paul Nauert
Conditions: Possible thundershowers; 80 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing toward left field

Mitchell Boggs (3-0, 4.37 ERA) won for the third time in four starts Saturday allowing one run and four hits with a season-high six strikeouts in six innings of a 5-1 win at Kansas City. It was arguably the best we have seen the rookie throw the ball. He looked much more confident in his approach and he had better command of his entire arsenal.

The Cardinals improved to 4-0 in Boggs' starts with that win over KC. He has won games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Boston's Fenway Park and on Saturday toppled a KC team that had won 11 of its past 12 games. A pitcher who had struck out only four and induced nine swinging misses in his first three starts woke up with six strikeouts in Saturday night's first four innings against the Royals. Boggs throws a hard sinker with uncommon movement. The rookie is a very confident pitcher right now.

Mike Pelfrey (5-6, 4.47 ERA) has won his last three starts - all on the road ? but his ERA is close to six runs a game and he's been erratic in the process. The right-hander has walked 11 batters in his last 16.2 innings.

The Mets are playing like losers. They sport little activity that resembles a competitive spirit. They have been horrendous in the field and their bullpen is atrocious.

The Mets are hitting a paltry .254 against right-handers while the Cardinals are at their best in these situations hitting .276 and scoring nearly five runs per game.

Paul Nauert might have pitcher friendly numbers (2.32 strikeout to walk ratio with eight overs to 10 unders), but he is not considered a pitcher-friendly umpire. His K-zone fits into the league average and he does his best to accommodate QuesTec specifications. Last year he had a reasonable 2.08 K rate with 19 overs to 12 unders, but Pelfrey wont' be helped by Nauert tonight, and he will struggle much like he did in his last game against the Yanks.

The home team is 4-0 in Nauerts last 4 Thursday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game; 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter; 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record; 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass and are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

The Mets are 1-4 in Pelfreys last 5 starts vs. National League Central and 1-6 in Pelfreys last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Nauert behind home plate.

5 UNIT Play on St. Louis