Thursday Sevice Plays NFL and MLB 8/7/08

[the duke]

Comps

NY Jets at CLEVELAND (-3) Michael Cannon


Take the Browns tonight over the Jets.

I like the direction the Browns are heading and they will be eager to show their fans that they are ready to challenge for the AFC North title.

To do that they must play better defense, but with preseason games we all know it?s a pretty vanilla strategy.

But Romeo Crennell will have his defensive players ready to hit tonight, and their intensity should be enough to get the job done over the Jets.

On offense, the combination of Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn at quarterback should give the Brownies plenty of scoring opportunities for at least the first half.

The Jets have pretty good depth at quarterback too, but with Cleveland looking to take a major step in the division this year I can?t look past them at this price.

Take the Browns minus the points.

2♦ CLEVELAND


Kansas City at CHICAGO (-3') Bobby Maxwell

Our first venture into the NFL preseason with a FREE play winner coming on the Bears as they host the Chiefs.

Neither one of these teams is going to be much in the regular season but Chicago is a lot closer to being a competitive NFL team than the Chiefs are. Kansas City is a bad team and will have a bad night tonight at Soldier Field in Chicago. Play the Bears.

Chicago has Kyle Orton getting the starting spot tonight and he'll go the first quarter followed by Rex Grossman in the second quarter. So basically for the entire first half of the first game of preseason the Bears have starting-caliber QBs going. Always a good sign for our money.

Caleb Hanie will play the second half under center for Chicago. The Bears went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS last preseason and they are 10-7 SU in preseason games since Lovie Smith took over in 2004.

Kansas City is bad and went 4-12 last season and 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason. Since 2004 the Chiefs are 0-8 SU and ATS in preseason road games. Brody Croyle starts at QB for the Chiefs and he'll be followed by Tyler Thigpen - no big worries in either one there.

Play Chicago to get an easy winner tonight, putting up about 21 first half points.

4♦ CHICAGO


Kansas City (+3) at CHICAGO Sports Gambling Hotline

Last preseason, the KC Chiefs went a lackluster 0-4 in the preseason, then followed it up with a 4-12 regular season campaign.

We believe head coach Herm Edwards will want to put a little more emphasis on the preseason this go-round, and we expect Kansas City to come out tonight, and compete for all four quarters.

Under Edwards, the Chiefs are a positive 9-5 against the spread when catching points in the preseason, and we will take the points they are giving out tonight.

Chicago's quarterback situation is far from settled, as Rex Grossman continues to be an enigma, while Kyle Orton is not far behind in that role. It doesn't matter who starts to us, as we believe they are both busts.

Just don't trust the Bears to lay any points, even at home, as Da' Bears are just 1-5 against the math their last 6 as the preseason home chalk.

We expect Brodie Croyle to show marked improvement this season, and we will back the Chiefs plus the points to make a game of it tonight.


Play on KC

2♦ KANSAS CITY


Kansas City at CHICAGO (-3) Karl Garrett


Expect a field goal kicking battle tonight in the Windy City as a pair of inept offenses hit the gridiron at Soldier Field.

While it is true that the Bears did go 3-1 OVER the price in the preseason last year, the combination of Orton, Grossman, Hanie, and Hill doesn't exactly keep defensive coordinators awake at night trying to devise schemes to stop them.

Kansas City is on a prolonged UNDER roll of 6-2 the last two preseasons, and Herman Edwards also has issues at the QB slot, as Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard combined to lead the Chiefs to the uninspiring 4-12 regular season mark last year.

Field position expected to be at a premium tonight, and expect the field goal units to keep themselves busy in this preseason contest.

G-Man backing a LOW scoring game in this one.

1♦ UNDER

 

[the duke]

comps

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Houston w/Oswalt vs Fogg

Note: The Astros and Reds open the first of a four-game series in the Queen City tonight when Roy Oswalt takes on Josh Fogg in a matchup of right handers. A combination of history and form comes to the forefront here as Oswalt is 19-4 in his career team starts against Cincinnati while Fogg is 5-10 against Houston. With Fogg owning an anemic 8.22 ERA at home this season, look for Oswalt to improve to 13-4 in his last 17 August team starts while Fogg drops to 5-13 during August here tonight.


Tampa Bay (+115) at SEATTLE Bobby Maxwell

The Rays couldn't have had a better way to take off on their season-high, 10-game road trip. They rallied for six ninth-inning runs and got a walk-off three-run homer for a 10-7 win over Cleveland in Tampa on Wednesday. That made the flight to Seattle for this one very entertaining and enjoyable and makes a guy want to get back on the field to experience the winning feeling again.

Tampa will come out still a little fired up and have a good game tonight. The Rays have won four of their last six on the road and send Andy Sonnanstine (11-6, 4.58 ERA) to the mound in this one. On Saturday he gave up just two runs in six innings of a 9-3 win over the Tigers and faced these Mariners back on April 9, allowing four runs in six innings.

Seattle has Felix Hernandez (7-7, 3.04 ERA) on the hill and he never seems to get any run support. He gave up two runs in five innings of a 3-1 loss to Baltimore on Saturday and he's 1-1 in four career starts against the Rays. He's got just one win since June 17 and he isn't getting one tonight.

Momentum plays a big part in this one as we look for the Rays to keep rolling. Play Tampa tonight.

2♦ TAMPA BAY


Larry Cook

MLB | Aug 07
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Total 9 over-105

3* on Marlins/Phillies OVER 9
(Action)

A great totals system goes along with play in favor of the OVER 9 runs. Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), in August games. This is a 42-10 Totals System hitting 80.8% over the last 5 seasons backing the OVER. (+31.5 Units) $100 bettors have won $3,150 betting the OVER on all road teams in this spot. Bet the OVER 9 runs.


Steve Janus

MLB | Aug 07
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays +116

The Rays are hot again. They've won 7 of their last 8 and are playing a Seattle team that is just 3-9 in their last 12 home games as a favorite. Tampa is 14-5 in 19 starts for their pitcher, Andy Sonnastine. Felix Hernandez gets the start for the Mariners, and while he is a very good pitcher, his team has not backed him in situations when he is favored to start the game. In his last 10 starts as a favorite, the Mariners are just 3-7.


John Martin

MLB | Aug 07
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

New York Mets -1?-115

1 Unit on N.Y. Mets -1.5 -115
(Listing Santana and Banks)

The Mets are worth every penny on the Run Line today. Instead of backing Johan Santana as a -200 favorite, we?ll minimize the juice knowing that the Mets will win this one by at least 2 runs Thursday. The Mets lost to the Padres last night, a game they really couldn?t afford to lose with as tight as this NL East race has been. But Johan Santana is their stopper, and he?s the one starter that can be trusted to get his team a victory when they need it most. Santana is 1-0 with a stellar 1.54 ERA through his last three starts. Santana owns a 2.89 ERA lifetime against the Padres in three starts against them. Santana is 57-20 after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997. His teams are outscoring their foes by an average of 2.2 runs/game in this spot. That?s why I?ll take my chances with the Mets on the Run Line to win by at least 2 runs Thursday. Cash in with New York on the Run Line.


Black Widow


MLB | Aug 07
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

New York Yankees -142

1* on New York Yankees -142
(List Mussina and Feldman)

The Yankees send their Ace in Mike Mussina to go even the series with Texas Thursday. Mussina is 14-7 with a 3.44 ERA on the year. The Yankees would be in a terrible place without Mussina being as effective as he has been this season. Mussina has allowed a combined 5 earned runs in his last 3 starts against the Rangers, never allowing more than 2 runs in any of the three starts. The Yankees are 12-3 in Mussinas last 15 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers are just 1-6 in Scott Feldman?s last 7 home starts. Take the Yankees on the Money Line.

 

[the duke]

SCOTT FERRALL


BASEBALL LOCKS FOR THURSDAY

METS -240 and Johan Santana easily over the Padres and banks at Shea--they'll sweep SD because they blow

Volstad at +190 with the Marlins upsetting Hamels and the Phils at Citzens--I like the price and Hamels has 3 starts against FLA and 1 loss and 2 no decisions and the Phils lost all three games vs them

Seattle -125 at home with King Felix over Sonnanstine and the Rays in the Pacific Northwest

Detroit +125 at ChiSox--Miner over Vazquez because no one in their right mind will be betting on the Tigers in this one--except Ferrall

Texas +135 over Mussina and the Bombers--I actually think Moose will get lit up in the heat by the Rangers in Dallas--and don't forget I've hit every game in this series at Arlington so far

Toronto -120 over Oakland and Duchscherer, who had his start puched back a day (was scheduled for Wed)--the A's look like absolute shit right now


BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR THURSDAY

TB-SEATT UNDER 8 RUNS

DET-CHISOX UNDER 10.5 RUNS

NY-TEX UNDER 12 RUNS

OAK-TOR OVER 7 RUNS

ATL-ARIZ OVER 10 RUNS

HOUS-CINCY OVER 9.5 RUNS

WASH-COLO OVER 9.5 RUNS

LA-CARDS UNDER 8.5 RUNS

FLA-PHILLY UNDER 9 RUNS

SD-NY OVER 7.5 RUNS


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR THURSDAY

St.Louis -140 and Kyle Lohse over Kershaw and the Dodgers at Busch--Lohse is a bad ass

Colorado -200 over Washington--How can you bet on the Nats and Bergmann (1-8) in the thin air. Jimenez and those hot Rockies bats are the take

Houston -140 at Cincy--Oswalt over Fogg in the Queen City--the Reds aren't playing well (2-8 in lats 10)

Arizona -155 over Atlanta in the desert--the Braves are slumpin ass and the D'Backs have a lot riding on it--Petit has a nice-low ERA of 3.03, while Morton, the Atl starter is 2-5 with an ERA of almost 7--he sucks


FOOTBALL FREE B's FOR THURSDAY

GIANTS +3 from the Lions--you've got to be kidding me-Detroit is favored ? Please

Browns -3.5 to Jets--Cleveland has to show they mean it this year, so they'll come out and jack up the crappy Gang Green

Pats -5.5 to Ravens--New England ain't losing to Baltimore--sorry !

Bears -3.5 to Chiefs--KC doesn't have a QB, then again neither does Chicago--but they are clearly deeper and better

Saints +3 from the Cards--Arizona always blows--it doesn't matter who they have. New Orleans is out for blood this year

 

[the duke]

Wild Bill

Patriots -5 (5 units)
Chiefs +3 (5 units)
Arizona -2 (5 units)
Arizona-Saints Under 36 1/2 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -3 (5 units)
Eagles-Pittsburgh Under 33 1/2 (5 units)
Seattle +2 1/2 (5 units)
St L-Tenn Under 33 (5 units)
Dallas +3 (5 units)
Bengals +3 1/2 (5 units)

 

[the duke]

LT Profits

Get LT's THREE NFL Bets, including the Bal/NE Game for $10 a Bet
LT Profits are 62% lifetime in NFLX and have never had a losing NFL preseason - ever

2* Ravens +4
2* Jets +3
2* Saints/Cardinals under 36


comps

Seattle Seahawks +3.0 (-110)
Fri Aug 8 '08 8:00p

The Seattle Seahawks fits nicely into what we like to call a GAP system on Friday night, and they get the call as road underdogs when they visit the Minnesota Vikings.

The first step in this system to group each team into either the Good, Average or Poor category (ergo, GAP) based solely on their win totals of last season. Well, the Seahawks grade out as Good while the Vikings grade out as Average, This is significant because higher classed road underdogs are 77-51, 60.2 percent against the spread the last seven preseasons.

Looking at the specific teams, the Seahawks are a nice 6-2 straight up and ATS on the road during the preseason over the last four years. They also like to get off on the right foot in these exhibition games, going 4-1 both SU and ATS in the last five openers. Conversely, the Vikings have lost their last two August openers and since they are a popular pick to win the NFC Central, they will in all likelihood be more concerned with staying healthy than posting wins during this preseason.

Finally, the Vikings have been distracted lately by all of the talk concerning the acquisition of Brett Favre, which may result in their corps of young quarterbacks pressing a bit in an attempt to impress.

Seahawks +3 (-110)


San Francisco 49ers +3.0 (-110)
Fri Aug 8 '08 10:00p

The San Francisco 49ers and the Oakland Raiders have had a couple of joint practices this summer, so they are both somewhat familiar with what to expect this week, which automatically gives value to the underdog.

Besides the 49ers are a very young team that may seemingly get as many wins this preseason as they do the entire regular season, so they probably have the greater motivation to win early between these two teams. Then again, that would be nothing new considering that the Niners are 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread vs. their Bay Area rivals the last five years in preseason.

Now the Raiders are expected to improve this season, thanks to their first round draft pick Darren McFadden, but you just know that they will handle Run DMC with kid gloves during the exhibition season, not wanting to risk a serious injury. Thus, we will see the same last place team as last year for the most part, at least in the early weeks.

Look for the underdog Niners to pull a confidence-building upset here.

49ers +3 (-110)

 

[the duke]

Las Vegas Sports Advisors


12:10:00 PM San Diego at NY Mets run line NY Mets/Johan Santana -1.5 -105 5

2:15:00 PM LA Dodgers at St. Louis moneyline St. Louis/Kyle Lohse -145
Play of the Day 5

10:10:00 PM Tampa Bay at Seattle moneyline Tampa Bay/Andy Sonnanstine +105
FREE PICK 5

 

[the duke]

JEFFERSONSPORTS 2-1 yest +1.00 units

hit 8 of last 12

59-39-1 last 99 plays (all sports) 60%

MLB RECORD
+29.80 units (+2980 playing 100 per game)

NFL EARLY RELEASE
CLEVELAND-3

 

[the duke]

Gator Report / Cajun Sports

MLB 70% Super Situation:


MLB Thursday: Play Against MLB (AL) underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team that averages <=4.2 runs per game against a team with a bullpen ERA<=3.33, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. 52-11 SU since 1997 (82.5%)

PLAY: Toronto Blue Jays -120

MLB Top Angles:

MLB Thursday: Washington is 4-17 SU versus the National League West this year.

MLB Thursday: Bergmann (Wash) is 2-12 SU as an underdog of +100 or more this season.

MLB Thursday: Cincinnati is 7-0 SU against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.




NFLX Thursday: Play Under NFL teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the pre-season, 42-16 Under last 5 seasons (72.4%)

PLAY: New Orleans / Arizona UNDER 36


NFLX Top Angles:

NFLX Thursday: New York Giants are 4-16 ATS on artificial turf since 1993.

NFLX Thursday: New York Jets are 9-1 ATS playing on the road with a total of 35 points or less since 1993.

NFLX Thursday: New England is 14-3 Under during the first two weeks of the preseason since 199


NFL Preseason Selection:


Thursday, August 7, 2008

7:00 PM ET

1 STAR SELECTION

NY Giants @ Detroit UNDER 33 points

The Super Bowl Champion Giants will be in uniform Thursday night for the first time since last season's ultimate triumph, as Eli Manning and company visit the Lions in the 2008 preseason opener for both teams.

New York has some immediate concerns to address on the defensive side of the football. Gone are ex-starters such as defensive end Michael Strahan, safety Gibril Wilson, and linebackers Reggie Torbor, and Kawika Mitchell. Additionally, many of the Giants' highest-profile players are expected to see only limited time, including Manning, running back Brandon Jacobs, and wideouts Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. In fact, Burress might not play at all due to a lingering ankle injury, and might be joined on the shelf by Super Bowl hero David Tyree, who has spent the early stages of training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list with a knee problem. QBs Anthony Wright and newcomers David Carr and rookie Andre Woodson will succeed Manning in the lineup at QB and see most of the action behind center for the champs.

Tom Coughlin is heartened that this post-Super Bowl training camp has been devoid of any major distractions but he is growing concerned with a number of minor but nagging injuries that have cut into the Giants New York Giants depth. The newest injury is starting right guard Chris Snee Chris Snee, who sat out with a sore shoulder and will have an MRI to see why he's experiencing discomfort. Backup guard Shane Olivea sat again and will have tests to determine the extent of the injury to his back. The receiver position has been hit hard, with Burress running on the side but that's it and others also unavailable. It looks as if rookie Mario Manningham will be out a while, as he has bleeding in his strained quad muscle.

Detroit, meanwhile, will be eager to witness the work of an offense that will take on a new look in 2008. Former coordinator Mike Martz was fired in the offseason, and has been succeeded by Jim Colletto, who is expected to take a more balanced approach to play-calling. Defensively, Detroit will be seeking strong initial returns from a revamped secondary.

There is only so much you can tell when a team is playing against itself. But a couple of things were clear from Lions camp: The defense is ahead of the offense, as it usually is at this stage, and the Lions are working hard on the running game. Detroit should have a fairly solid rotation at QB with Jon Kitna followed by backup quarterbacks Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton; however, we don't expect to see the ball thrown all over the lot with the team working on pounding the football.

Detroit knows that it can throw the football and that they have a couple of stud WRs, so there is no need for them to work on that part of their game. RUNNING the ball will be the gameplan here, and this is a new concept and scheme for the offensive line, so we don't expect it to be necessarily pretty. We don't expect the Giants to get much done either, being shorthanded at the receiving position, using a makeshift line, and the only good QB on their roster seeing very limited time on the field. Even Manning has not been sharp of late in camp.

Under these circumstances, we expect a low-scoring game with a lot of running plays that will burn the clock. New York has gone 3-0 UNDER in its last 3 NFLX road openers, and have seen 4 of their last 5 NFLX road openers go UNDER the total.

PROJECTED FINAL: NY GIANTS @ DETROIT UNDER 33 POINTS

 

[the duke]

YOURWINNINGPICKS

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) VS. New York Jets:The Jets are the play here as the QB question surrounding Gang Green will force coach Eric Mangini to play both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens for an extended amount of time here. Cleveland will play Brady Quinn a bunch and this will represent his first extended action as his rookie season was spent holding the clipboard. Jets are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 preseason openers.

THE PICK: New York Jets (+3)


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will start Kyle Boller at QB which is never a good thing even in preseason. The Pats should come out fast as this is their first action since losing Super Bowl 42 in shocking fashion. Pats are also 32-19 ATS in their last 51 preseason openers when giving less than 5.5.

THE PICK: New England Patriots (-5)


CHICAGO BEARS (-3) VS. Kansas City Chiefs: The Bears should beat up on the Chiefs here as KC breaks in a host of rookies on both sides of the ball and still have QB Brodie Croyle finding his way. Bears are looking for who will step up as QB and so Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton will look to open some eyes with their showing.

THE PICK: Chicago Bears (-3)

 

[the duke]

Ben Lewis

RARE 5* NFLX Best Bet on the AZ/NO Game

Ben left us on a 6-3 NFL Run and is set for a BIG NFL Year 25.00

5* Cardinals -2.5

 

[the duke]

Wunderdog

Baltimore at New England
Pick: Baltimore +5

It is going to be difficult psychologically for bettors to look at a New England game and resist them as just a mere 5 point favorite at home. What we must do however is keep this in perspective. This is an exhibition game! The logo on the helmets and regular season success and failure do not come into play here. But the oddsmakers are forced by the hand of the betting public to consider a few extra points. Even with that said over 60% have already pulled the trigger for the Pats in this one. The Pats opened the season in 2007 scoring 30+ points in their first eight regular-season games. A great start, right? Consider however they did not reach 30 in a single exhibition game. Brady threw seven passes in the opener last season. The result was 10 total points scored and a Patriot loss. Their's no doubt this offense will turn it on come September, but the preseason is a different animal all together. The Patriots have been an elite team for years,but over the last three exhibitionseasons they have been favored by 4 or more points three times and have not covered a single one. In contrast, we have the Baltimore Ravens with a first year coach in John Harbaugh. What does that mean? First year coaches are new for a reason - their teams were bad last season - bad enough to fire their head man. New coaches come in for one reason - to change things. They want to win from the start, more than entrenched coaches, and especially more than coaches of teams so good that have nothing to prove to anyone (i.e. the Pats). These first-year coaches want to change the culture of losing and as such, they put more of an emphasis on winning in the preseason. Does Harbaugh want to win here? Yes! Does Bellichick? He could really care less. The Patriots have dropped two of their last three ehibition home openers outright. We will back the more motivated Ravens here to keep this one close, or even steal one.

 

[the duke]

Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (247) BAL Ravens and (248) NE Patriots. Take "(247) BAL Ravens". Strong information coming out of Ravens camp, as new coach Harbaugh has taken a far more focused early tact than Billick ever did. Kyle Boller should go most of the first half, followed by improving Troy Smith, who's been impressive in camp. The Patriots are thin on the offensive line because of injury, especially at tackle. QB Brady and the first-stringers won't have pads on for long, if at all. The number on this game has dropped and with good reason, as Baltimore has an excellent chance to win. I'm on the Ravens.



Lou Diamond

My free pick of the day is the game between (251) NO Saints and (252) ARI Cardinals. Take "Over". With coaches tipping their hands, some Pre-Seaon games can be just as strong, if not stronger, than regular season games. Find out why I have 3 easy NFL winners for today with my SPOT-ON analysis! Check it out! Both teams are beefing up their offenses and have some quality pre-season qb's that should give us opportunities to score all 4 quarters. Look for a high scoring affair here tonight.



Paul Bovi

My free pick of the day is the game between (251) NO Saints and (252) ARI Cardinals. Take "Under". It will be Tyler Palko, Mark Brunell and Travis Lulay getting most of the snaps for the Saints while coach Whisenhunt looks for his inaugural preseason win after last years.5? 0-4, though several were close. The Saints are sitting the bulk of the offensive talent inclding Deuce, Devery and Marques and will pay more close attention to the defensive side here as that has been their Achilles heel. Zona in the desert gets it 16-13 Under

 

[the duke]

Comps

Jeff Benton

For Thursday, I?ll hand out my first NFL preseason freebie of the season, this one on the Bears minus the points against the Chiefs.

I know it seems crazy to lay chalk with Chicago, considering the team?s top two quarterbacks are named Orton and Grossman. However, I?ll take Orton and Grossman over Croyle and Thigpen ? the top two signal-callers for Kansas City ? any day of the week. And because Chicago has a true QB competition between its two passers, both will play a full quarter, both with the first-team offense. That?s huge, especially in the first week of the preseason, when first-stringers usually play little, if at all.

Finally, check out how horrific the Chiefs have been in August in recent years: 2-10 SU and ATS in their last 12 preseason games, including 0-4 SU and ATS last year. Not only that, but K.C. has lost eight straight preseason road games, failing to cover in any of those contests, and the team is 1-8 ATS in its last nine summer games as an underdog. Easy call here; go ahead and lay the points with confidence.

(Based on a 1♦ to 10♦ rating system)

3♦ CHICAGO BEARS


Matt Rivers

hursday take the price back with the Marlins.

This is not worth a premium play but to get the number here with the fish is too good to pass up entirely. Cole Hamels is a total stud but he did just get smacked around in that last start and has not been showing his Cy Young potential. When the lefty has looked good his team has not supported him and therefore Hamels has something like three wins over the past two months.

Chris Volstad is no Hamels by any means but the young righty has potential and a decent upside and should be able to at least hold his own here.

Florida has been overachieving all season long and now with Josh Johnson and Annabel Sanchez back in the mix all of a sudden Freddy Gonzalez' team has become very very legit and more than likely will stay in the race for the long haul. Hanley Ramirez is a superstar leading an offense that is no joke. Throw in Jacobs, Willingham, Hermida, Ross, Cantu and others and the Marlins can bash the ball and especially in a hitters' park like Citizens Bank.

One of these days we are going to see Hamels return to that unreal form but until that happens I'll take a very capable dog like this at this price for sure!


Jimmy The Moose

Game: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Aug 7 2008 7:30PM
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens

Reason: The Ravens have a new coach who has brought a new attitude to the team. Baltimore has yet to announce a starting QB so expect Boeller, Smith and Flacco to play hard and try to impress once they get out there. The Ravens have a few RB's that are battling for playing time and they will look to make themselves known tonight. The Patriots starting unit won't see much time in this one. New England's Bill Bellichick doesn't put much stock into preseason, his Patriots have gone 2-2 SU in each of the last 3 preseason's. With the starters on both sides not playing much looks for the Ravens to outwork the Patriots tonight. Play on the Baltimore Ravens +.



Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Aug 7 2008 8:10PM
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Reason: At 8:10pm our member selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Chicago White Sox. Back in the first month of the season, 26-year-old Tiger righthander Zach Miner would have been one of the unlikeliest pitchers in the American League to wind up in a team's rotation. After all, by the middle of April, Miner's ERA had ballooned to over fifteen runs after his first six relief appearances. By the end of June, Miner had worked his way to a .500 record (3-3) and had gotten his ERA down to a reasonable 4.43 -- still not exactly the stuff of a Major League starter on a contending team. But a season-ending injury to Jeremy Bonderman and the recent demotion of Dontrelle Willis have opened the door for Miner, and so far the converted reliever has made the most of his opportunity. Miner has gone 2-1 as a starter and has now lowered his ERA to 3.77. This is a great opportunity to improve on this record as he faces division rival Chicago and veteran Javier Vazquez, who has really struggled lately. Vazquez finally got his first win since June 17, but it came against the lowly Kansas City Royals. Vazquez's last start before that was against this Tiger squad, and it was one of his worst outings of the season, as he gave up 11 hits and six earned runs in seven innings in Detroit's ballpark, which is known to be pretty friendly to opposing pitchers. Vazquez has gone from looking like an early-season favorite for the Cy Young award to trying to work out the kinks so he can get his team to the postseason. Vazquez is 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA vs. Detroit so far in 2008, and we'll take the underdog here tonite. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

 

[the duke]

Joe Gaffney

New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - Aug 7, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -151 Detroit Lions Play Title: free play

GIANTS PARTIED ALL YEAR AND MAIL THIS ONE IN GOOD LUCK JOE GAFFNEY



Jack Clayton

Sport: MLB
Game: Rays at Mariners
Date/Time: 8/7/2008 10:00PM EST
Pick: Over the total

 

[the duke]

Comps

Will Cover


NEW ENGLAND minus vs the Ravens. 7:30pm EST

COVER STORY: You might think a team that has been as successful as the Pats would take it easy in the pre-season by resting their starters for the regular season grind. Not so with Bill Belichick at the helm as he has gone a fine 32-21 SU and 31-18-3 ATS as the head coach of the Pats in the pre-season. He wants to win anytime NE steps on the field and the Patriots will do just that this evening at home against the Ravens. Lay it with NEW ENGLAND!




Great Lakes Sports

NFL Selection:

New York Jets at Cleveland 7:30PM EST Play on: Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets

The Cleveland Browns are 8-4ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993, and 16-7ATS at home since 1993. The Cleveland Browns is also 27-20ATS overall since 1993, and 3-0ATS vs conference opponents the last three years. We look for the Cleveland Browns to beat the New York Jets for the straight up, and ATS home win tonight.

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL Preseason

N.Y. Giants at Detroit

The Super Bowl champion Giants start warming up for their title defense when they travel to Ford Field to open the preseason against the Lions.

After going 7-1 SU and ATS in the 2005 and 2006 preseasons, New York slipped to 1-3 SU and ATS last August, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Detroit was 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the preseason last year, and it has cashed in just four of 16 preseason games dating to 2004 (6-10 SU). The home field hasn?t helped the Lions in that span, as they?ve gone 2-6 ATS (4-4 SU) at Ford Field.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning will get the start, but he?s only expected to play the first two series at the most, and all the starters should be gone by the second quarter. Journeymen Anthony Wright and David Carr will follow Manning, and rookie Andre Woodson could also see some time.

New York?s receiving corps will be thin, with Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith, David Tyree and Mario Manningham all sitting with minor injuries.

Jon Kitna is back as the Lions? starting quarterback, but he and the rest of the first-string offense and defense will be on the field for only about 10 snaps, coach Rod Marinelli said. No. 2 QB Dan Orlovsky will follow Kitna and play about 1? quarters, with former second-round pick Drew Stanton finishing up.

The under is 8-4 in New York?s last three preseason campaigns, including 7-1 on the road, and the under is 4-2 in Detroit?s last six preseason home contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER


N.Y. Jets at Cleveland

On the day they reportedly agreed to a trade for Brett Favre, the Jets head to Cleveland for an exhibition game against the Browns, who will attempt to continue their recent preseason hot streak.

New York, entering coach Eric Mangini?s third season, went 3-1 SU and ATS last year in preseason play, and the Jets are 11-5 SU over the past four exhibition campaigns (9-7 ATS), including 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven preseason road contests.

Mangini has kept his quarterback situation under wraps throughout camp, and with the apparent acquisition of Favre, it looks as though Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens are now battling for the backup job. Both are expected to play tonight, with rookie Erik Ainge and Brett Ratliff getting time in the second half.

Cleveland also went 3-1 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason and is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS dating to 2004, one year before the arrival of coach Romeo Crennel. The Browns are also 6-2 ATS in Cleveland over the past four preseasons.

Browns quarterback Derek Anderson will play the first quarter, with Brady Quinn expected to step in for the second and third quarters, followed by Ken Dorsey.

The under has been the preseason play the past three years for Cleveland, going 8-4 overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND


Baltimore at New England

The AFC champion Patriots, who fell one game short of a historic perfect season last year, get back at it when they open the preseason against the Ravens at Gillette Stadium.

New England, entering its ninth season under coach Bill Belichick, has been an average preseason squad the past three years, going 6-6 SU (2-2 all three years) and 6-5-1 ATS. In the past two summers, though, the Pats are 3-1 SU and ATS as a favorite, all of more than three points.

Baltimore, now under rookie head coach John Harbaugh after Brian Billick was fired following the 2007 season, went 1-2 SU and ATS last year in the preseason and is 8-7 SU and ATS over the past four exhibition seasons. On the road in that span, the Ravens went 3-4 SU and ATS.

Quarterback Tom Brady is nursing a calf injury and will be a game-time decision for the Patriots. If Brady plays, it likely won?t be for more than two series, and he?ll be followed by Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez and rookie Kevin O?Connell, all of whom are battling it out to be Brady?s backup.

QB Kyle Boller will start for the Ravens and is expected to play most, if not all, of the first half, followed by Troy Smith in the third quarter and rookie Joe Flacco in the fourth quarter. Baltimore will be without RB Willis McGahee and tight end Todd Heap, both down with injuries.

The over is 3-1 in New England?s last four home preseason games, with both contests in Foxboro last year topping the total. On the flip side, the under is on an 8-3 run over the past three exhibition campaigns for Baltimore.

ATS ADVANTAGE:NEW ENGLAND


Kansas City at Chicago

The Bears, who reached the Super Bowl in the 2006 season but missed the playoffs last year, open 2008 against the Chiefs at Soldier Field.

Chicago went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the 2007 preseason and is 10-7 SU (8-8-1 ATS) in exhibition games since coach Lovie Smith took over in 2004. The Bears have gone 1-1 SU each of the last five preseasons and are just 3-7 ATS at Soldier Field during that stretch.

Kansas City, in a precursor to its 4-12 regular season, went 0-4 SU and ATS last August and is just 2-10 SU and ATS in its last 12 exhibition contests. Since 2004, the Chiefs are 0-8 SU and ATS in preseason road games.

QB Kyle Orton gets the starting nod for the Bears tonight and will play the first quarter, followed in the second quarter by Rex Grossman, with both quarterbacks playing behind the first team. Caleb Hanie is expected to play in the second half.

Herm Edwards, entering his third season as Chiefs coach, said Brody Croyle?s starting job is safe. Croyle is expected to start tonight and could play into the second quarter, though Edwards wouldn?t specify the exact game plan. He did say Tyler Thigpen will replace Croyle and get most of the remaining snaps before handing off to veteran Damon Huard.

The over went 3-1 in the preseason for Chicago last year, but the under is 6-2 in Kansas City?s last two exhibition campaigns.

ATS ADVANTAGE:CHICAGO


New Orleans at Arizona

The Saints, who slid to 7-9 last year after nearly making the Super Bowl in 2006, travel to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the Cardinals.

New Orleans, entering its third year under coach Sean Payton, went 3-2 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason, including 2-0 SU and ATS in true road games and 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Over the past five preseasons, the Saints are just 8-13 SU and ATS in August, but they are 6-4 SU and ATS on the highway.

Arizona went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in coach Ken Whisenhunt?s first preseason last year. The Cards have been a middling team at home the past four Augusts, going 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS. They?re also 2-4 ATS as a favorite the last four summers.

QB Drew Brees will start for the Saints and is expected to play the whole first quarter, with Mark Brunell coming on and playing into the third quarter, followed by Tyler Palko. New Orleans will be shorthanded on offense, though, with RB Deuce McAllister, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Devery Henderson all sitting out, and WR Marques Colston questionable.

QB Matt Leinart will have a limited start for the Cardinals, playing one to two series, and Kurt Warner will follow for one to two series as both passers battle for the No. 1 job. Brian St. Pierre and rookie Anthony Morelli are slated to take the snaps the rest of the way, though all four QBs are likely to be without injured wideouts Anquan Boldin and Early Doucet.

The under has cashed in five of New Orleans? last seven preseason contests, but the over has been the play in five of Arizona?s last six exhibition games and is 4-2 at home for the Cardinals in the past three summers.

ATS ADVANTAGE:NEW ORLEANS and OVER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (62-52) at Texas (60-55)

The Yankees send Mike Mussina (14-7, 3.44 ERA) to the mound looking to even their four-game road series against the Rangers, who are set to go with young right-hander Scott Feldman (4-4, 4.97).

After losing the first two games of this series, New York held on for a 5-3 victory Wednesday, moving to just 4-7 in its last 11 overall and 4-7 in its last 11 on the road. Still, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 14-5 against winning teams and 17-7 versus the A.L. West.

Despite Wednesday?s setback, Texas has still won four of its last six and is on further runs of 6-2 against the A.L. East and 14-7 against right-handed starters.

The Rangers still lead the season series 4-2 against the Yankees, but going back a few years, New York is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings overall and 14-3 in the last 17 in Arlington.

The Yankees have won three of Mussina?s last four starts, including an 8-2 home shelling of the Angels on Saturday, in which the veteran right-hander allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits in seven innings. Mussina has surrendered just 12 earned runs in 44 innings (2.45 ERA) over his last seven starts.

The Rangers have lost three of Feldman?s last four outings, including the last two in a row. On Saturday against Toronto, the 25-year-old yielded four runs (three earned) on five hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-4 home setback. In his last four starts, Feldman has given up 17 earned runs in 21 innings (7.29 ERA).

Mussina is 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA in seven road starts this year, and he?s 17-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 36 career starts against Texas. Feldman, meanwhile, has a rash of no-decisions at home this season, going 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts). He?s also 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against New York.

The over is on a 10-2 spree for New York and an 11-3-1 run for Texas, but the under is 6-2 in Mussina?s last eight starts and 8-2 in Feldman?s last 10. The under is also 4-1 in Mussina?s last five efforts against the Rangers.

ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES

 

[the duke]

Wild Bill

Florida +190 (5 units)
Padres-Mets Over 7 1/2 (5 units)
Dodgers +155 (5 units)
Rockies -200 (5 units)
Reds +140 (5 units)
Arizona -160 (5 units)
Jays -120 (5 units)
Yankees -155 (5 units)
Yankees-Rangers Under 12 (5 units)
Detroit +125 (5 units)
Mariners-Rays Under 8 (5 units)

 

[the duke]

Players of America

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
The Play: Detroit Tigers +125.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Now we're heading back to a match up we nailed just yesterday with the Tigers and White Sox in Chicago. The Sox have owned the series thus far and Thursday night these two go to battle yet again. We've preached the whole story of the AL Central battle between the Twins and the White Sox...and we've even cashed in on both very recently. Let's remember one thing, though...this is baseball, not the NFC North or something like that. Tonight is a good spot to lay some wood on the Tigers.

All the talk about the two fighting for the division in this league...but Detroit isn't exactly out. These guys can make a run at any time and I think a lot of people might be expecting that. We sure are.

Right hand heaver Zach Miner will start for Detroit on Thursday. Zach comes in to tonight's dual one game over .500 at 5-4 on the season. He's only thrown 62 innings this year, but he has been pretty solid in those. He has an ERA of 3.76 which is fairly respectable when you have the firepower and defense behind you like the Tigers do. These two teams have seen each other countless times this year. They know each other, they know how one another plays and it really just comes down to execution from here on out. The Tigers are healthy all the way around line up wise and there just shouldn't be any holding back here.

The Sox will put Javier Vazquez on the mound tonight. Javier is one game shy of the even mark at 8-9 overall. His ERA is rather inflated at 4.66 and he holds a WHIP of 1.35. Javier is capable of putting together some solid innings, but the bullpen is the next worry. In their last three games, Chicago's bullpen has a combined ERA of 7.33 in 23.2 innings. We don't know how much fight is left out there after the starters. The newly acquired Ken Griffey Jr. is expected to sit on Thursday for rest and third baseman Joe Crede remains sidelined with a back injury.

This ought to be a entertaining one, too. Both teams can put up some runs and that should happen tonight with Detroit having the last blow. We'll grab some underdog value here as we're confident the Tigers hold a good spot to get the win. 10 units on the Tigs.

TREND OF THE GAME:
- The Tigers are 7-3 in Miner's last 10 road starts

Detroit 8, Chicago 6


Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -140.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Thursday we'll be hitting this one and it comes to us from Chase Field in Arizona. The Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves at 9:40PM EST for Game #1 of their series and we'll be leaning on the Backs here, and this is why.

Atlanta is simply atrocious on the road. At 19-36 the Braves come in one of the worst road teams in the league. They lost last night to a mediocre San Francisco team and to put it straight...things just aren't looking up for these guys. Atlanta has met the Diamondbacks four times this season so far and have had some success at 3-1 but all good things do come to an end.

The Backs are putting Yusmerio Petit on the mound. This guy is sort of under the radar, and rightfully so. He comes in at just 1-2 overall for Zona with an ERA of almost 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.91. Petit hasn't thrown too many innings for the Dbacks, but neither has his opponent (for the Braves). Petit was solid his last time few times out though going 16 strong innings in his last three games with an ERA of 2.71. In those games he was handed one win and one loss along with a no decision. Arizona is 7-3 in their last ten games. Their pitchers have combined for an averaged ERA of 3.62, while the Braves are closing in on 6.00 total.

"Gnarly" Charlie Morton will be responsible for the balls and strikes Thursday night for Atlanta. Charlie comes in a sub par 2-5 overall in 46+ innings this season. He's racked up an ERA of 6.56 in those outings and a WHIP of 1.52. The Braves bats better somehow explode because this guy isn't going to go out and shut anyone down. He's out there as a weak spot in this ATL rotation and facing this Arizona team is no light task for anyone. Chipper Jones remains sidelined for the Braves with a strained left hamstring and left fielder Matt Diaz also won't be seeing any action for his team as he is out with a left knee strain.

Heads are hanging in this Atlanta clubhouse right now. They don't know where or who to turn to and their opponents seem to know that. There is no reason not to lay some dust and cash in on this one before the line rises. We'll play Arizona here tonight for a 1*, 10 unit wager.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Braves are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
- The Braves are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.
- The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in their last 12 games on grass.
- The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in t heir last 12 games overall.
- The Diamondbacks are 10-3 in their last 13 meetings with the Braves.

Arizona 7, Atlanta 4


Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Play: Under 9.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

A spectacular day and night yesterday going 3-1 and raking in some big time units. The Twins cashed early in the day for a 3* winner and we nailed both run line wagers to maximize profits. Its now time to get Thursday's action on the table.

One early one here for Thursday and this match up is between the Florida Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. At 1:05PM EST, Florida will leave the hotel to face the steaming hot Phillies and this should pan out to be a good one.

The side on this bad boy could go either way. Florida is fully capable of a huge underdog upset or the Phillies could straight up pound them at home. However, we're going to look into a total on this event between two pitchers who have a history of keeping things low key. For the Marlins, Christopher Volstad will be the scheduled starter. His numbers are among average at 2-2 overall with an ERA around 3.20. On the year he has been handed a decision four times, all of which have tallied up stay UNDER the total. On the other side, lefty Cole Hamels is starting for the Phillies. He's 9-7 on the season with a WHIP of 1.06 and an ERA of 3.35. He, too, is notorious for throwing games UNDER the total. He has done so 11 times already this season. Both of these teams have legit bullpens that can close a ball game.

This seems like a sure fire for some kind of bet. This will be a fun one to watch if you like defense. We'll take this game under the quoted total for a 10 unit wager in Philadelphia today.

TREND OF THE GAME:
- The UNDER is 4-0 when Christopher Volstad starts for the Marlins.

Philadelphia 5, Florida 2

 

[the duke]

John Fina

August 7, 2008

Selection: Colorado Rockies -1.5 Runs

Reason: Put us down on the Colorado Rockies -1.5 Runs for our Free MLB Selection on Thursday. Today the Washington Nationals will be on the road as they take on the Colorado Rockies. We will side with the Colorado Rockies -1.5 Runs! One reason why we will side with the Colorado Rockies is because they will be sending to the mound the much superior starting pitcher. This says it all... The Washington Nationals Starting Pitcher (Jason Bergmann) has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Colorado Rockies Starting Pitcher (Ubaldo Jimenez) has a 0.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Colorado Rockies will be sending to the mound the much superior pitcher. In addition, the Colorado Rockies have proven they can beat the Washington Nationals. In fact, the Colorado Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 meetings against the Washington Nationals (when playing in Colorado). We see the Colorado Rockies getting another blowout win tonight! Take the Colorado Rockies -1.5 Runs!


Tony Mathews

August 7, 2008

Matchup: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Selection: New York Mets -1.5 Runs (-115)

Explanation: We will side with the New York Mets -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the San Diego Padres in Thursday's MLB contest.

The San Diego Padres will use starting pitcher Josh Banks. Josh Banks has been having huge pitching problems as of late. In fact, Josh Banks has a 4.91 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Josh Banks pitching another bad game today.

The New York Mets will use starting pitcher Johan Santana. Johan Santana has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Johan Santana has a 1.54 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Johan Santana pitching another great game today.

The New York Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings against the San Diego Padres (when playing in New York), and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!

Take the New York Mets -1.5 Runs!


Brian Marshall

August 7, 2008

Game: Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds

Plays On: Houston/Cincinnati Over 9.5 (-110)

Game Analyses: Do you love high-scoring games? If yes, you will love Thursday's MLB game between the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds.

The Houston Astros will be lead by starting pitcher Roy Oswalt. Roy Oswalt has struggled this season. In fact, Roy Oswalt has a 4.74 ERA on the season. In addition, Roy Oswalt has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Roy Oswalt giving up many runs today.

The Cincinnati Reds will be lead by starting pitcher Josh Fogg. Josh Fogg has struggled this entire season. In fact, Josh Fogg has a 7.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Josh Fogg giving up many runs today.

The bottom line, we should see many runs scored tonight!

Take the Houston Astros/Cincinnati Reds Over 9.5!

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess

Thur (NFL) Bears
Thur (NFL) Cardinals
Thur (MLB) Mets RL



Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Tigers Wednesday night.
Thursday it's the Dodgers. The surplus is 135 sirignanos.



HONDO

Two wins, four losses, one rainout, no blood. Hondo broke even yesterday on Big 'Dog Day, as vic tories with the Pirates and Padres negated losses with the Phillies, Orioles, Astros and Indians. His Nats' play was a washout, so it all added up to Mr. Aitch holding steady at 540 mizells above sea level.

Today, he'll give Duchscherer (or Chsch, for short) one more shot to keep a stall in the stable - 10 units on the A's.



KERBYSBASEBALL

NEW YORK YANKEES -144



ARMVIN SPORTS

TAMPA BAY RAYS 110



PlayByPlayInc

NY GIANTS 3


Rocco Spacamuro

50 NY Giants (NFLX)