Thursday Sevice Plays NFL and MLB 8/7/08

the duke

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STAN THE MAN


THURSDAY, AUGUST 7TH, 7:00 ET


5* BEST BET - Detroit over NY Giants by 14

It seems as if defending Super Bowl champions have had a real "bulls-eye" on their back in recent pre-seasons, going 2-10 vs. the number over the last three years. Last season, Indianapolis went 1-2-1 ATS, meaning the Patriots and the Steelers before them really stunk up the joint. This year, it's the New York Giants, one of the least likely Super Bowl Champions in history as the marked team.

They begin this preseason campaign with this Thursday nighter against Detroit, a team they beat 16-10 last preseason as the Lions threw a somewhat stunning 43 passes in the contest. Mike Martz is gone and coach Rod Marinelli wants a more run-first mentality on offense and he may finally have the personnel to do so. Top draft choice Kevin Smith, a 2,000+ yard back at Central Florida joins veterans Tatum Bell, Artose Pinner, Aveion Cason and Brian Calhoun, all of whom will be vying for the workload. The Giants defense isn't going to be what is was last year either with four departed starters, including the retired Michael Strahan, so depth will be an issue in these early preseason battles for the G-Men.

Speaking of depth, what about New York's QB situation? Eli Manning silenced the critics last year, but he'll be in for just a series or two, tops, here. Behind him are a pair of new Giants, Anthony Wright and David Carr, both of whom are obviously learning a new offense. Furthermore, just about every Giant WR has missed some part of training camp due to injury.

The Lions, meanwhile, actually have a pretty solid little QB rotation in Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton. Orlovsky has looked pretty good in practice from what we're hearing. Stanton, not so much, so he might play with a little something extra in the opener. On defense, this is the third year of the "Tampa Two" system and the p_layer_s should be more comfortable and familiar.

*Analysis:
----------
When they met in the regular season a year ago, the Lions were contentious in a 16-10 home loss that featured 43 pass calls by since-booted offensive coordinator Mike Martz. When you call 43 passes against the NFL?s leading sack defense, you are a boob. This season, the Lions will pound the ball more often as they transition to more of a field-position team under leadership that has lots of ?Tampa Bay? in it. Having a competition for the #1 running back spot is a fine thing to have when you intend to run more, and the Lions have rookie #1 draft pick Kevin Smith, plus veterans Tatum Bell, Artose Pinner, Aveion Cason and Brian Calhoun all vying for the workload.

The Giants? defense features four departed starters from a year ago, which means that depth is suspect. One of those departed starters is big linebacker Kavika Mitchell, very solid against the run. Also, Giants? wide receivers Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and David Tyree all have missed time with injuries in camp.

When the Lions feel like throwing, they have many capable hands available in the crew that Martz messed up mightily with. Besides Anthony (Yawn) Wright, the Giants have also saddled themselves with desultory David Carr as a back-up quarterback. Carr will probably see action with the lesser Olinemen who have much to prove behind the stalwart starters. Not good for David Carr. Detroit figures to treat it more like a regular-season affair and their own back-up QB Dan Orlovsky has led plenty of practice and preseason drives with Detroit?s #2s and #3s.

*Bottom Line:
-------------
Let?s finalize by admitting that Detroit hasn't been all that great in recent pre-seasons, but since 1993, the Giants are a dreadful 4-16 against the number in pre-season games played on turf. "Lay the points with the more motivated home team here!"


Predicted Outcome: DETROIT 24, NEW YORK GIANTS 10
 

the duke

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Sebastian

Insider 100* Phillies -1.5 runs

20*CWS
20*OAK
20*AZ u
20*LAD ov
 
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the duke

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Dave Price

MLB | Aug 07
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Total 7 under-102

A's/Blue Jays UNDER 7 (action)
The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. The Under is a perfect 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 home games, 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite. The Under is 12-2 in the Athletics last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning record, 10-1 in Athletics last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 22-7 in Athletics last 29 overall. Oddsmakers are begging for the over here, but we won't take the bait.


BeatYourBookie


Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (August 7) (7:30 P.M. EST)
Play: UNDER 33.5 Title: 50*

The Baltimore Ravens have stayed UNDER the total in 5 of the last 6 pre-season games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and they have also stayed UNDER the total in 6 of the last 7 pre-season games when the total posted is 35 points or less. Meanwhile, New England ahs stayed UNDER the total in 14 of the last 17 pre-season games in the 1st two weeks of the pre-season.

Play on UNDER 33.5


ALEX SMART

Atlanta @ Arizona
Thu Aug 7 '08 9:40p
Prediction: Arizona

Arizona's starting pitcher tonight against a depleted Atlanta Braves lineup, Yusmeiro Petit is moving steadily higher in my pitcher power rankings . The rookie right hander has compiled a 2.81 ERA, allowing opposition batting orders to a .182 batting average in his first 16 innings as a mlb starter. Im betting the Venezuelan thrower , remains in good form, and helps his team bounce back after ending up on the wrong side of a 2-0 shutout against the Pirates last night.

Meanwhile, the Braves will send the inconsistent Kyle Morton (2-5, 6.56 ERA) out to face, a Arizona team, that despite of their lackluster performance at the plate on Wednesday, have hit at a .270 clip at home in Chase Field , while producing 5.1 RPG. I expect the DBacks will tee off on a Braves hurler that has allowed 5 or more ERs in 3 of his L/5 trips to the hill.



STEPHEN NOVER

Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Aug 7, 2008 1:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Florida Marlins +195 WSEX

At this high price, I have to make a small investment on the underdog Marlins.

Phillies starter Cole Hamels has been hit hard during his past two starts, surrendering eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. He has allowed eight homers in his last five games. The Marlins have hit the third-most homers in the majors.

Hamels hasn't had any luck against Florida this season. The Marlins are 3-0 versus Hamels this year winning as $1.45, $1.50 and $2.10 underdogs.

That's some nice profit, but can the string continue? Well, Hamels hasn't won in more than a month. The Marlins are loose. The pressure is all on the Phillies.

Florida starter 21-year-old rookie Chris Volstad has done the job on the road so far going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.

Bottom line at this price the Marlins are worth taking a shot on.
 

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Lenny Del Genio

Game: Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Aug 7 2008 9:40PM
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Reason: Play on Arizona at 9:40 ET. Last night?s 3-2 loss by the Braves in San Francisco is worth nothing because with it Atlanta is now an astounding 0-19 in one-run games on the road. They remain one of MLB?s worst road teams overall at 19-37 and are just 5-12 their last 17 vs. tonight?s opponent, Arizona. But, it gets worse! Tonight?s Braves starter Charlie Morton has lost each of his three previous starts, by a combined 20-5 margin, with an ERA of 7.71 ERA over that span. Atlanta has scored two runs or fewer in 22 of their 56 road games this year and are 0-22 in those games. They are just one of three teams with 20 or less road wins on the year. Take Arizona.



TRIPLE THREAT SPORTS

NEW YORK GIANTS

Defending Super Bowl champs are 3-2-1 ATS in first preseason game the next year, and Lions are 0-3 ATS as preseason home fav for Marinelli. Lions are learning new schemes on both sides of the ball anf Big Blue - hey it is a road game - has the better QB rotation as well. Take the points!



CHRIS CHIRIMBES

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

The Atlanta Braves' miserable record in close games on the road has been a significant factor in the club's struggles this season. Ending their problems likely won't get easier when they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose dominance at home has them on top of the NL West. The Diamondbacks look to build on their division lead as they open a four-game series against the Braves on Thursday night at Chase Field. Atlanta (42-52) is on pace for its worst finish since it went 65-97 in 1990, the season during which current manager Bobby Cox took over the club in June. The Braves would be in much better position if they hadn't lost all 19 of their one-run games on the road. Overall, they've dropped 26 straight road games decided by one run since edging the New York Mets 7-6 on Aug. 9 of last season. That skid continued on Wednesday, when the Braves managed five hits in a 3-2 loss to San Francisco. The Braves, whose 19-37 road record makes them one of three teams in the majors with fewer than 20 victories away from home, have scored two or fewer runs in 22 of their 56 road games - all losses
 

the duke

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Dwayne Bryant


8:05 PM ET MLB
New York Yankees (Mussina) at Texas Rangers (Feldman)

New York Yankees (Listed Pitchers) -144

Mike Mussina is 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .293 OOBP on the road this season. The Yankees are 5-2 in Mussina's seven road starts. Mussina has made Quality Starts (at least 6 innings pitched, allowing 3 earned runs or less) in 8 of his last 9 starts against Texas. He only allowed 1 run in the other start, but it doesn't count as a Quality Start because he only went 5 innings. The Yankees are 12-3 in Mussina's last 15 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Texas is just 2-7 in Scott Feldman's home starts this season. Feldman owns a 4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .341 OOBP at home. Yankees hitters own a .650 slugging percentage (2 singles, 1 triple, 2 homers in 20 at-bats) against Feldman. When comparing their last three starts, Mussina (20 IP, 16 K, 3 BB) is in much better K/BB form than Feldman (17.1 IP, 9 K, 7 BB).

The Yankees are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings and 30-12 in the last 42 meetings in Texas. I expect them to earn a split of this four-game series tonight.

Take the Yankees/Mussina over Texas/Feldman.



TONY KARPINSKI

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets (MLB) - Aug 7, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -240 New York Mets

San Diego at NY METS 12:10pm ET San Diego is 20 games under .500 due to a poor road record with less than 20 wins in over 55 road games. The NY Mets have had their struggles of late dropping down to third in the NL East, but are over 10 games over .500 at home. On get away day of this series look for Johan Santana to pitch late into the game and to get his 10th win of the season as they Mets win at home over San Diego. Play on the NY Mets



Brian Hansen

Game: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Aug 7 2008 8:10PM
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

Reason: The White Sox won again last night and they can and will stick a dagger in Detroit's playoff chances tonight. Miner beat Vazquez at Detroit last week. He's still 1-2 with an 8.53 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Sox though and he got blown out the only previous time he pitched here. Sox win. Sox win!


JOHN RYAN

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets (MLB) - Aug 7, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 230 San Diego Padres

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego - Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 58-51 making 53 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +150 or more after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and is now facing an opponent after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Mets are losing and as I have said since Santana was acquire, he alone cannot win for the Mets. Although Santana is pitching well and has pitched well against SD, he has a 1-2 record against SD and is just 9-7 on the season. Moreover, Santana is 2-7 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Mets bullpen is struggling to say the least and they are just 7-15 losing 16.3 units with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. Take SD
 

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PLUSLINE SPORTS

Daily Baseball Pick

Thursday August 7, 2008 MLB Daily Selections:

Washington(Perez) vs Colorado(Jimenez)

Colorado -1.5 Runline (-105)

Moneyline Line (-240)
 

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Wunderdog


Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis (2:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St Louis -129 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)

The Dodgers are just 3-6 in Clayton Kershaw?s last nine starts, in spite of the fact he gave up no earned runs in three of them. Two still resulted in losses. That is because the underbelly of the Dodgers? pen is just not big-time and Kershaw has yet to make it into the 7th inning in any start, failing to get past five innings in more than half of his 11 starts. Even when he pitches well the Dodgers have a tough time winning. Kyle Lohse has been brilliant for the Cards where he is 13-3 with a 3.73 ERA, and the Cards have now won 12 of his last 15 starts and seven of his last eight at home. This matchup is much more favorable for the Cards than the odds are allowing for, so we will take the value and grab the Cards as a home favorite of much less than what they should be.


Game: New York Yankees at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -148 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2)

Mike Mussina has won 264 games in his career, but has yet to log a 20-win season. Could this be the year? He is pitching big-time and this certainly looks like it could be his year. After starting 1-3, the Yankees have gone 13-6 in his last 19 starts, with Mussina allowing three runs or less in 16 of the 19, so he has been consistently good. Scott Feldman has only recorded eight decisions in 17 starts, meaning he has left most of the game outcomes subject to the Rangers? pen, which isn't good news as their pen has been terrible this season. When Feldman doesn't get a decision, the Rangers? pen is 2-7, for a combined 6-11 mark over his 17 starts. The Rangers are primarily a .500 team, but with Feldman have been significantly less, winning at a 35% rate in his starts. Mussina has it going and we will back the Yanks on the road here.
 

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The Hitman

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, August 07, 2008
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5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BASEBALL WINNER
NY Yankees w/Mussina -142 8:05 EST



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Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, August 07, 2008
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5000* BASEBALL DOMINATOR WINNER
Arizona w/Petit -154 9:40 EST
 

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The Millionaires Club

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, August 07, 2008
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Houston w/Oswalt -140 7:10 EST




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TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Toronto w/Burnett -110 7:05 EST
 

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Investment Playmakers


10* American League POD
Date: Thursday, August 07, 2008
$28.00 Guaranteed: Investment Playmakers will now be offering more selections at YWN per day starting today. This American League shows us a strong signal after the pitching calculation was researched. You will get this guaranteed selection and details of the selection when you buy now. Do not forget to grab the NL Game of the Week today.


Matchup ~
917 Detroit Tigers ~ (r) Miner, Z
918 Chicago White Sox (r) Vazquez, J
Pitching indicators are showing a strong signal for pitcher Vazquez coming into this game with a 21-8 record (+12.1 Units) when playing after coming off of a win. He poses a 5-6 record starting against the Tigers ERA of 4.66 but this is in comparison to Miner whom has a 8.53 ERA in this same situation. Our indicator shows Vazquez with a whopping .93 indifference in pitching strength so we take the White Sox.

10* Investment Playmakers Selection~ White Sox (Vazquez) -140
 

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Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NFL Power Play for Thursday

10* Take NY Jets (+3.5) over Cleveland (NFL Power Play)

New York
? 9-1 ATS in pre-season road games when the total posted is 35 points or less
? 7-1 ATS when playing on Thursday in the pre-season
? Only allowed an average of 11 points a game in pre-season road games last year


Bonus Premium NFL Play for Thursday

5* Take NY Giants (+3) over Detroit

Detroit
? 3-10 ATS as a pre-season home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993
? 0-4 ATS in pre-season when the total posted is 35 points or less the last 3 seasons
? 0-3 ATS in pre-season when playing on a Thursday the last 3 seasons
 

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King Creole

DET -3.0 (-110) vs NYG

I came across this WEEK ONE tendency in the NFL pre-season while skimming through some of the online forums. It is not something that I researched myself. But it IS worth noting. And since we ALL have the common goal of 'taking down the MAN', the more information that we can share with each other.... the better (or BETTOR!) it is for all of us.

In week one of the NFL "X" season, play ON any team that missed the Playoffs last year.... when they are taking on a team that WON at least one Playoff game last year. If you had played this situation each of the last two seasons, you would have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS

Now, this shouldn't be your only reason to play ON these non-playoff teams. You must also factor in previous pre-season Systems, Trends, and Tendencies. And a sharp player will also address the Head Coach... the projected quarterback rotations... and the relative youth or experience of the two teams that are playing each other. At the very least, this Systems will PREVENT me from playing ON the Giants, Seahawks, Jaguars, Packers, and Patriots in GAME ONE.

So we'll take a possible look at the following "Play ON" teams in week one:

DETROIT LIONS over the ny giants
BALTIMORE RAVENS over the new england patriots
MINNESOTA VIKINGS over the seattle seahawks
CINCINNATI BENGALS over the green bay packers
ATLANTA FALCONS over the jacksonville jaguars
 

the duke

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Nobody else out there today?

:shrug: :scared :shrug: :scared

:sadwave: :sadwave: :sadwave: :sadwave:
 
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Kanuck

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GREAT WHITE NORTH
thebeerstore.ca
Nobody else out there today?

:shrug: :scared :shrug: :scared

:sadwave: :sadwave: :sadwave: :sadwave:



Hey DUKE

Thanks for posting the service plays I appreciate all your hard work. Way to go!!!!!

I check them out all the time.

Sometimes they help (you know what I mean) :mj07:

F?CK ME DUKE -- wish I was a Butcher
 
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