PLAY
Toney vs Peter - Total rounds
Over 11.5
( -185 )
Total rounds Over
1277/690
...........................................
Draw ( +1600 )
100/1600
...........................................
PLAY
KOD
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Toney Vs. Peters - Heavyweights - KOD
- Thread starter THE KOD
- Start date
PLAY
Toney vs Peter - Total rounds
Over 11.5
( -185 )
Total rounds Over
1277/690
...........................................
Draw ( +1600 )
100/1600
...........................................
PLAY
KOD
I will probably make three plays on this fight.
Just don't know what three they will be yet.
Still have a week to look into this. Sept 2, 2006
I smell money and it smells green.
Just don't know what three they will be yet.
Still have a week to look into this. Sept 2, 2006
I smell money and it smells green.
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One thing that I like about Toney is this guy has got the hardest head in the fight game. With a skull protecter like that , its very difficult to knock him out with shots to the temple or behind the ears. Toney just laughs and keeps coming at you.
If Toney head butts which he is want to do, it spells big trouble for Peters getting a nasty cut that could drain blood in his eyes for the rest of the fight.
When Toney decided to become a heavyweight it was the first time in his life that anyone said you need to gain some weight instead of Toney your a little pudgy.
So Toney set about never turning down a meal, and keeping a well stocked refrigerator.
Also gotta have plenty of beer in the freezer getting chilled for immediate consumption.
If Toney head butts which he is want to do, it spells big trouble for Peters getting a nasty cut that could drain blood in his eyes for the rest of the fight.
When Toney decided to become a heavyweight it was the first time in his life that anyone said you need to gain some weight instead of Toney your a little pudgy.
So Toney set about never turning down a meal, and keeping a well stocked refrigerator.
Also gotta have plenty of beer in the freezer getting chilled for immediate consumption.
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I never make a boxing wager based on someone elses opinion, but when I read or hear valid points from others I definitly take it into consideration.
Read this last night...the guy makes a good arguement, but he doesn't realize that 5dimes opened Tony as the favorite and the line has moved...
Toney-Peters: Easy Money?
John Chavez - 8/25/2006
Photo Credit Showtime
What is it with the odds-makers making Samuel Peters a slight favorite over James Toney? Currently at 5dimes.com they have Peters at -160. While this doesn't make Peters a heavy favorite in any way shape or form, it does in fact point to the fact that the bookies think Peters has the edge in the scrap next Saturday. I've been racking my brain for a couple weeks now since I've been studying past fights of both guys trying to make an accurate prediction of how their fight will go down. It has come to my attention that Sam Peters has a tendency to push his jab later on in his fights negating it's effectiveness as a range finder and point scorer. I've also noticed that throughout history, punchers are only comfortable when they are hitting something. They don't like to consistently miss wildly, they'd rather hit arms, gloves, or the body than be off balance from throwing poorly placed power shots. What happens when they miss their initial bombs is that they back off from throwing them with as much emphasis. This in turn changes the fight from puncher vs. boxer to boxer vs. boxer. Sam Peters is not a boxer and doesn't have comparable experience or skill to that James Toney has. This is why it perplexes me as to why odds-makers would make Peters even a slight favorite. If I were to be making the odds for this fight I would have Toney as a solid 2 to 1 favorite.
Evander Holyfield, no matter how shot or past his prime he is, throws textbook boxing punches. Everything he throws is short, straight, and accurate. Not only that but he does get rough in the trenches using his head incessantly to butt and setup his shots. James had a field day with Holyfied when they fought back in 2003. Peters while being strong doesn't even have the inside game of Holyfied. I suppose that the bookies are counting on James coming in out of shape as he seemingly did against Hasim Rahman. The problem is that James weighed only a couple pounds heavier in the Rahman fight than he did against Dominic Guinn were he looked pretty good. He stated that he had the flu and he fought like he had the flu. While I don't think or would even want James to come into this fight at 220, I predict that he'll be in very good fighting shape regardless of his weight as long as he comes in healthy. James has the better jab, footwork, defense, and accurate punching than Peters. Power is such an overrated asset especially when you can't land it. We've heard it time and time again that Toney has never fought a puncher like this.
When are people going to realize that James is a true heavyweight and he is by far the most skilled guy in the division. Right now the odds on Toney at 5dimes.com are +125. I'm interested to see the props on this fight because I really like James by decision in this fight. I'm guessing we'll see James by decision at around +200 and that is a great value bet. I pick Toney to come out jabbing and using distance and his superior footwork, while looking to counter with his right hand. I also see Peters trying to come out jabbing and letting his right hand go trying to hurt James. It looks like it will turn into an inside fight in which Toney will have a field day with his short crisp punches. The only thing James has to be careful of is the murderous rabbit punches that Peters throws. I've never seen more blatant rabbit punching by a big heavyweight and the ref should be cognizant of this. James will outbox Peters from both the inside and outside to a dominant decision victory.
Read this last night...the guy makes a good arguement, but he doesn't realize that 5dimes opened Tony as the favorite and the line has moved...
Toney-Peters: Easy Money?
John Chavez - 8/25/2006
Photo Credit Showtime
What is it with the odds-makers making Samuel Peters a slight favorite over James Toney? Currently at 5dimes.com they have Peters at -160. While this doesn't make Peters a heavy favorite in any way shape or form, it does in fact point to the fact that the bookies think Peters has the edge in the scrap next Saturday. I've been racking my brain for a couple weeks now since I've been studying past fights of both guys trying to make an accurate prediction of how their fight will go down. It has come to my attention that Sam Peters has a tendency to push his jab later on in his fights negating it's effectiveness as a range finder and point scorer. I've also noticed that throughout history, punchers are only comfortable when they are hitting something. They don't like to consistently miss wildly, they'd rather hit arms, gloves, or the body than be off balance from throwing poorly placed power shots. What happens when they miss their initial bombs is that they back off from throwing them with as much emphasis. This in turn changes the fight from puncher vs. boxer to boxer vs. boxer. Sam Peters is not a boxer and doesn't have comparable experience or skill to that James Toney has. This is why it perplexes me as to why odds-makers would make Peters even a slight favorite. If I were to be making the odds for this fight I would have Toney as a solid 2 to 1 favorite.
Evander Holyfield, no matter how shot or past his prime he is, throws textbook boxing punches. Everything he throws is short, straight, and accurate. Not only that but he does get rough in the trenches using his head incessantly to butt and setup his shots. James had a field day with Holyfied when they fought back in 2003. Peters while being strong doesn't even have the inside game of Holyfied. I suppose that the bookies are counting on James coming in out of shape as he seemingly did against Hasim Rahman. The problem is that James weighed only a couple pounds heavier in the Rahman fight than he did against Dominic Guinn were he looked pretty good. He stated that he had the flu and he fought like he had the flu. While I don't think or would even want James to come into this fight at 220, I predict that he'll be in very good fighting shape regardless of his weight as long as he comes in healthy. James has the better jab, footwork, defense, and accurate punching than Peters. Power is such an overrated asset especially when you can't land it. We've heard it time and time again that Toney has never fought a puncher like this.
When are people going to realize that James is a true heavyweight and he is by far the most skilled guy in the division. Right now the odds on Toney at 5dimes.com are +125. I'm interested to see the props on this fight because I really like James by decision in this fight. I'm guessing we'll see James by decision at around +200 and that is a great value bet. I pick Toney to come out jabbing and using distance and his superior footwork, while looking to counter with his right hand. I also see Peters trying to come out jabbing and letting his right hand go trying to hurt James. It looks like it will turn into an inside fight in which Toney will have a field day with his short crisp punches. The only thing James has to be careful of is the murderous rabbit punches that Peters throws. I've never seen more blatant rabbit punching by a big heavyweight and the ref should be cognizant of this. James will outbox Peters from both the inside and outside to a dominant decision victory.
BOX
thats a good read.
I think they have some funny ways of thinking about things.
If the guy doesn't know what the line is opening,
I have to think the opposite of things, and then I will win.
thats a good read.
I think they have some funny ways of thinking about things.
If the guy doesn't know what the line is opening,
I have to think the opposite of things, and then I will win.
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"Best bet for Toney is to sidestep Peters like Holifield did with Mike Tyson in 1996."
"fight with Rahman, Toney came in at a whopping 238 lbs.
"What will come with Toney into the ring will be what always comes with him. Toney will win for the same reason he has always won: his style and boxing skills are superior to his opponents. In his fights against Jirov, Holyfield, Ruiz, and Guinn ? fighters far, far more experienced than Peter is -- he punched and pecked and won. Why should it be different this time? We could say Toney is too fat and old to beat Peters but Toney was at his fattest and oldest against Rahman and still got a draw and still won the fight on many people?s scorecards.
three, four, five six punch combinations; he will sway side-to-side like a man in the rigging and make Peter pay. Toney will exploit Peter?s wide open style for a wide punch stat and decision victory as has always come when Toney has fought these kinds of fighters.
Peter, too, will do what he has always done. He will chase Toney to the ropes and throw hay makers, trying to add Toney to the list of undistinguished losers from his past ? Long, Hawkins, and Sykes are his last three."
..................................................................
Seems simple enough.
What came before will come again."
KOD
"fight with Rahman, Toney came in at a whopping 238 lbs.
"What will come with Toney into the ring will be what always comes with him. Toney will win for the same reason he has always won: his style and boxing skills are superior to his opponents. In his fights against Jirov, Holyfield, Ruiz, and Guinn ? fighters far, far more experienced than Peter is -- he punched and pecked and won. Why should it be different this time? We could say Toney is too fat and old to beat Peters but Toney was at his fattest and oldest against Rahman and still got a draw and still won the fight on many people?s scorecards.
three, four, five six punch combinations; he will sway side-to-side like a man in the rigging and make Peter pay. Toney will exploit Peter?s wide open style for a wide punch stat and decision victory as has always come when Toney has fought these kinds of fighters.
Peter, too, will do what he has always done. He will chase Toney to the ropes and throw hay makers, trying to add Toney to the list of undistinguished losers from his past ? Long, Hawkins, and Sykes are his last three."
..................................................................
Seems simple enough.
What came before will come again."
KOD
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To be fair, 5dimes opened this line and no other book had it up. The line moved very quickly, by the time I got to it Peters was +140 down from +180 and I ckeck lines quite often
I believe it took less than 48 hours for Toney to go from 2-1 fav to + money. Anyone who's not a degenerate gambler like me could have made that mistake
gl bl
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Thinking early is what got me a piece of Peters at +140...now I can get Toney at +120 and cash either way
But I won't put anything on Toney untill the weigh in
gl bl
But I won't put anything on Toney untill the weigh in
gl bl
BOX
I am amazed sometimes how you do that middling between the numbers. You enjoy that and are good at it, so I say all the power to you.
Profits go up slower, and losses are kept to a minimum. I just can't bring myself to do it though.
Me, I just like to make money on the fight. If I make 500 overall on any one fight I am estatic.
I am amazed sometimes how you do that middling between the numbers. You enjoy that and are good at it, so I say all the power to you.
Profits go up slower, and losses are kept to a minimum. I just can't bring myself to do it though.
Me, I just like to make money on the fight. If I make 500 overall on any one fight I am estatic.
I'm also amazed at box's ability to spot scalps, I've only predicted a couple in two years of doing this, one being donald v. holyfield and ruiz v. valuev both of which I was too inexperienced to pull the trigger on. the ability to make a profit before the fight starts is a magical and profitable ability, I hope someday to get box to show me his secrets, I'm not worthy yet but it's one of my lifelong ambitions.
I agree with the long post about the experience and skill factor, and like others will wait for the weigh ins to make my plays but the props (if any) are just as important.
I love sam peters, a wild swinging powerful brawler, but he's ripe for being made a fool of, toney in condition can and SHOULD do that. toney won't knock sam out, sam probably can't outpoint toney unless he collapses and even then would more likely fall than get ko'd. my probables are toney by dec or peter by ko.
What mistake, what is there to understand about the opening of a line, and the movement of a line? :thinking:
Please teach me everything you know.
I like boxing and I think I could like money just as much.
Teach me now.
No, I truly wonder what there is to understand if one fighter opens as a favourite and then the line moves.
What's the "secret"?:sadwave:
Hellephant
I think you misunderstood why I mentioned the line move and what I meant by making a mistake.
I posted that long write-up above and said that it made some decent points but the author didn't realize that Toney actually did open a 2-1 favorite. If you read that post again you'll notice John constantly brings up what the oddsmakers must have been thinking when they opened Peters as the favorite, but Peters didn't open as the favorite. Toney was a 2-1 favorite like John thought it should be, but he doesn't realize it because the line moved before he got to it.
Scott said that if this guy doesn't even know who opened the favorite, we shouldn't take him seriously.
I said that anyone could have made that mistake if they're not a degenerate like me who check lines on a daily basis.
Only those of us who checked 5dimes in that 48 hour period would know Toney opened a 2-1 favorite
Hope that clears things up
Scalping methods, predicting line movement, understanding line movement...a lot to learn but no time right now. There's a sh*tload of action this week and I want to stay ahead of the openers.
Of course it would also be nice to actually get the openers this week. I worked late this past week and missed Gogoladze at -400 and Mora at -265. Had to play Gogo at -500 and Mora at -285
gl bl
I think you misunderstood why I mentioned the line move and what I meant by making a mistake.
I posted that long write-up above and said that it made some decent points but the author didn't realize that Toney actually did open a 2-1 favorite. If you read that post again you'll notice John constantly brings up what the oddsmakers must have been thinking when they opened Peters as the favorite, but Peters didn't open as the favorite. Toney was a 2-1 favorite like John thought it should be, but he doesn't realize it because the line moved before he got to it.
Scott said that if this guy doesn't even know who opened the favorite, we shouldn't take him seriously.
I said that anyone could have made that mistake if they're not a degenerate like me who check lines on a daily basis.
Only those of us who checked 5dimes in that 48 hour period would know Toney opened a 2-1 favorite
Hope that clears things up
Scalping methods, predicting line movement, understanding line movement...a lot to learn but no time right now. There's a sh*tload of action this week and I want to stay ahead of the openers.
Of course it would also be nice to actually get the openers this week. I worked late this past week and missed Gogoladze at -400 and Mora at -265. Had to play Gogo at -500 and Mora at -285
gl bl
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if toney`s in shape,i like `im..but,if he looks like he just finished a particularly nasty pub crawl with teddy kennedy,who knows?......i don`t see that pole-ax jab in peter that i saw with overrated rahman..the one that made it difficult for a shorter toney...
i did think that james got hit a little to much vs overrated rahman......
is he slipping?.....
go back on the roids,james.....you were hell on wheels with all that skill and the extra muscle.....
i did think that james got hit a little to much vs overrated rahman......
is he slipping?.....
go back on the roids,james.....you were hell on wheels with all that skill and the extra muscle.....
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The secret is just to be able to predict which side the public will pile onto since $$$$ moves the line. The harder part is determining when to buy back the other side and getting the best number. Some people can do it very well, others can't
