Trinidad-Wright on the 14th

[frank s.]

As opposed to just posting picks in this one, I wonder if anyone would share their opinion AND analysis as to what is behind their opinion. In other words, break this bad boy down a little. What I keep thinking right now, for openers, is firstly Winky will be in with the heaviest hands he has ever faced. Tito throws punches with bad intentions and if he hits a guy solid, they stay hit.OK. will he get to Wright? Will Winky frustrate Tito and cause him to get off his gameplan? Can Winky slick his way to a scorecard victory? I am not getting the clearest picture here as these two are quite different in their respective styles.
At this point, it seems the best VALUE play is the Wink man by decision prop. Most logical bet on the board, but I don't absolutely love it. What do you chaps think?

 

[Sonny Palermo]

U R up early, no?
Not loving it as much as I did Morales at simliar plus price but I see the value in Winky also.
His "D" is better than many who have tasted canvas at Titos hands (that is, when he is not foolishly sticking his chin out and saying "take a free one", which would be deadly agianst Titos power)
Don't like the layoff, I have to say Winky is in a better 'groove', bout-wise, training, and life-style wise.

Tito has a history of being dropped early, and Winky has as much power as some of thse who have put Trinidad down ('nando, Oba, Campas, Stephens??).

One W after a long layoff from the lifestyle, against a tough-but-buffon Mayorga (who lost to bicycle-boy Spinks) does not convince me to lay 2-1 or more on Felix.
I used Oscar against him and lost because of his back-peddling ways, as he is spoiled due to past gifts here, and came back with Hopkins. I'm staying on the AGAINST Tito train and riding with Winky.

 

[Flipper13]

I agree Frank S with your write up on Winky...I think IF there is any value here it is with Wink likely by decision...Also I had the honor of shaking his hand last night, so now that he got my golden hand shake within a week of this Tito bout, Wink will be able to use the hand that I shook last night, and put a hurting on Tito with it. :mj14:

 

[amhlilhaus]

I'm still on the fence for this one. winky is a talented boxer, but I don't think he'll have enough power to keep trinidad off him all fight, and his defense isn't as flashy as say mayweathers. he blocks a lot of punches with his arms and gloves but some judges score shots like that for the aggressor. my gut feeling is wright has risen as high as his talent will carry him, and trinidad will chase him down and eventually ko him, or outwork him for the win. I"m not sure if I will bet this though, -200 is kind of high, and while I waver it might shoot a lot higher.

 

[frank s.]

Agree Sonny. Making Mayorga look bad isn't that great of an accomplishment. Winky would NEVER stick his chin out with Tito, as we well know. All I see is Tito Coming foward looking for the de-capitation and Wink doing what he do. Obviously I don't have a strong opinion here, but perhaps some of my colleagues do. I know where you stand, and maybe boxlocks will initiate a thread on this one, among others.

 

[badjab]

I've wavered back and forth as to whether or not there is any value in putting a bet on Winky (and I would only place a win by decision to get value). I have no doubt that Trinidad can knock Wright out...the question is, will Winky fight a smart enough fight to avoid getting clocked? The southpaw stance will probably help somewhat, but not sure it will keep Tito from landing some bombs. More likely than not, this fight will resemble the Felix Trinidad-William Joppy bout, where a capable boxing technician was overmatched by a power-punching sharpshooter.

 

[gardenweasel]

one comment this week....being that i`m on everybody`s s-it list.....lol

don`t overestimate tito`s win over mayorga(no offense mayorgafan)....made to order...

remember dlh outboxing tito until he

a)lost his nerve
b)became fatigued
c)had brainlock
d)all of the above

also remember hopkins schooling trinidad...

i liken winky more to a hopkins or a dlh than a mayorga(coming up almost 2 weight classes) or a bighead joppy(a lt. heavyweight`s head on a welterweight`s body)..

that said,i thought mosley had his moments vs winky...winky stood in front of shane a little to much...he can`t do that vs trinidad...he`d better give him angles....

i wish we had seen more of trinidad....one or two more fights.....vs a more diverse sort of opponent than mayorga......

really pretty hard to gauge where trinidad is in his comeback..

g.l.,fellas...don`t hold my demeanor against me...my depends were damp saturday night...

 

[frank s.]

Poor Joppy; you are always goofing on his cranium size! At 2-1, Winky is the quintessential live dog. This is not an opponent, but a very serious threat.
At this point I am on the Winkster.

 

[dogyeee]

Can anyone tell me how much power trinidad has in his left hand? I know he has good power. I just dont remember how good his left was. I didnt get to see the mayorga fight either. I assume most of it is in his right hand. With this assumption, I like winky wright in this one with almost 2-1 to win and almost 4-1 for a decision. IMO I just dont see how trinidad is favored in this one by so much. Winky is the undisputed light middleweight champ, and trinidad just came off the two year layoff. Winky has so much confidence right now off of his two recent wins. As long as he doesnt let trinidad hit him like he did with mosely, I like winky's defense. Unless im wrong about tito's hands, being a southpaw always helps. That should help him get away from trinidads right hand. I think trinidad is going to have to fight really well, to beat winky, and I still dont think tito can be that sharp after two years off and only fighting once in a fight he should have won and did win. I hope more people post their opinions about this fight, as I am just a rookie at this and im thinking about a decent sized wager on wright.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Huge left hook

 

[MayorgaFan]

Can anyone tell me how much power trinidad has in his left hand? I know he has good power. I just dont remember how good his left was. I didnt get to see the mayorga fight either. I assume most of it is in his right hand. With this assumption, I like winky wright in this one with almost 2-1 to win and almost 4-1 for a decision. IMO I just dont see how trinidad is favored in this one by so much. Winky is the undisputed light middleweight champ, and trinidad just came off the two year layoff. Winky has so much confidence right now off of his two recent wins. As long as he doesnt let trinidad hit him like he did with mosely, I like winky's defense. Unless im wrong about tito's hands, being a southpaw always helps. That should help him get away from trinidads right hand. I think trinidad is going to have to fight really well, to beat winky, and I still dont think tito can be that sharp after two years off and only fighting once in a fight he should have won and did win. I hope more people post their opinions about this fight, as I am just a rookie at this and im thinking about a decent sized wager on wright.

Wright's a lefty, the best punch to hit a southpaw with is your straight right hand. Trinidad's best punch is his left hook but his right hand is decent as well. People are looking at the Wright-Mosley fights to much. The guy's slickness is a bit overrated. He's a good fighter but if you watch his fight against Candelo and Hernandez he got hit a good bit for a supposed slick fighter. Wright does have a good chin though and excellent jab. I don't think he uses his legs enough to beat Tito though.

 

[amhlilhaus]

that's what I've been thinking, he gets hit way too much for a defensive specialist, and one who doesn't bicycle around the ring like mayweather does, he isn't a mover at all, and if trinidad pounds on him for a while he'll open up some openings. as for winky's chin, we saw last weekend that even iron chinned guys will get stopped if hit enough.

 

[Flipper13]

Against Mosely, I believe Wink wasn't too concerned about moving around because Wink clearly displayed (especially in the second fight)that he knew no matter what Mosely did, that he could not hurt Wink...

Wink by decision is my play so far too.

 

[frank s.]

So many good points. Winky did not fear Mosley's punches enough to cause him concern, similiar to Hopkins realizing Oscar really could'nt do too much damage either. And as most observers have stated, Mayorga, a brawling caveman, was the perfect hand-picked patsy for the Don King money making machine. Winky will slip shots, but I am not sure he will keep enough distance to avoid Trinidad's power punches. Some guys hit so damn hard they punch right through a guys defense. As Sonny stated, Wink has as much mustard on his punches as other's who have planted Tito's butt on the canvas. A salient point here as a bud of mine pointed out, WHO has Winky really fought? It's my perception his claim to fame is beating Shane Mosley twice, a blown up welterweight who had trouble hurting the bigger man. I may reconsider and move to the Trinidad side of the ledger. I did'nt wager yet either way.

 

[badjab]

I think the line for this fight (even with Tito having the big layoff) is right on. And I am taking into consideration the fact that Mayorga was truly "made to order". Trinidad is not favored simply because he is the bigger "public" name -- he is a superior fighter than Wright at this weight class. Winky's toughest opponents have been Vasquez (loss), McCart (beat twice), Vargas (loss) and Mosley (beat twice). Trinidad has one loss to his credit...Bernard Hopkins -- who is at the head of the class. We have all seen Trinidad get knocked on his butt...of course, it usually works as a motivator with him knocking the other guy out in the same round. Trinidad usually finds a way to break the other guy down, simply because he does not let up. De La Hoya definitely outworked him (and imo did enough to win on points), but Tito is relentless until the fight is over. Looking at my crystal ball it reads "Trinidad by TKO round 10".

 

[frank s.]

Did you get the "crystal ball" on E-Bay? LOL!

 

[badjab]

Did you get the "crystal ball" on E-Bay? LOL!

actually, it's black plastic and has an 8 on the front. the usual answer is "signs point to yes"...funny that Trinidad's name came up this time :box2:

 

[amhlilhaus]

I am now on trinidad -180 3$$$. I just think wright has to be perfect for all 12 rounds to get a decision, as any even close rounds go to tito and combined with his fight changing power it's too much to ask for winky, who'll go back to being the guy no one wants to fight.

 

[ferdville]

I have jumped on the Tito bandwagon as well. Wright 's opponents have not been superior to Tito's, and the loss to Hopkins was hardly a disgrace. I think if Wright doesn't hurt him early and put a touch of fear in Trinidad, felix will eventually wear him down and win by decision or a very late stoppage. Although the lack of activity is always a concern, there are fighters who can survive down time due to their training regimen. Of course, with Trinidad, that is always a factor in itself. I just feel that Trinidad is in a class higher than Winky. If Wright doesn't produce the best performance of his career, he won't win. At any rate, there are many factors that should make this an entertaining battle.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Some very good points in here, with Tito's power advantage and Don King behind him I can see why some are siding with Trinidad.

My play is Wright by 12 round decision at +400, to be clear this is a value play, the line was way too high for this very possible outcome. I don't think Winky will stop Tito.


Why I wouldn't lay 2-1 on Trinidad...

Trinidad was outboxed by DLH and Hopkins, yes Hopkins had a size advantage but that just shows that Trinidad should be fighting at 154. Remember that Hopkins weighed in at 156 for the DLH fight so he's not exactly a big middleweight. Anyway,
Trinidad was also outboxed by DLH in the first half of their fight, so he can be outboxed, and neither of those guys are slick southpaws like Wright. The lefty stance and the stiff right jab could give Tito serious trouble. If Wright fights the way he should, defensively with plenty of movement, he has a very good shot.

I'm not trying to talk anyone out of betting Trinidad, his power and the King factor are why he's rightfully favored. I'm just giving my reasons for why I'm not playing him.

gl bl