Trump Election Trail

WhatsHisNuts

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<blockquote class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/CFFoPbbAR0M/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="12" style=" background:#FFF; border:0; border-radius:3px; box-shadow:0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width:540px; min-width:326px; padding:0; width:99.375%; width:-webkit-calc(100% - 2px); width:calc(100% - 2px);"><div style="padding:16px;"> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CFFoPbbAR0M/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" style=" background:#FFFFFF; line-height:0; padding:0 0; text-align:center; text-decoration:none; width:100%;" target="_blank"> <div style=" display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #F4F4F4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style=" background-color: #F4F4F4; 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transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg)"></div></div><div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style=" width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"></div> <div style=" background-color: #F4F4F4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"></div> <div style=" width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"></div></div></div></a> <p style=" margin:8px 0 0 0; padding:0 4px;"> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CFFoPbbAR0M/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" style=" color:#000; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px; text-decoration:none; word-wrap:break-word;" target="_blank">Save America from the Trump Depression</a></p> <p style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px; margin-bottom:0; margin-top:8px; overflow:hidden; padding:8px 0 7px; text-align:center; text-overflow:ellipsis; white-space:nowrap;">A post shared by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/meidastouch/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px;" target="_blank"> MeidasTouch</a> (@meidastouch) on <time style=" font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px;" datetime="2020-09-13T19:17:48+00:00">Sep 13, 2020 at 12:17pm PDT</time></p></div></blockquote> <script async src="//www.instagram.com/embed.js"></script>
 

Old School

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Trump pulls into must-win Arizona trailing in polls
BY REID WILSON - 09/14/20 05:30 AM EDT

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/516253-trump-pulls-into-must-win-arizona-trailing-in-polls

PEORIA, Ariz. ? President Trump will make a campaign stop here Monday as a rapidly changing population puts a state that has not voted for a Democratic candidate for president in a generation at the forefront of the battleground map.

A new survey released Monday morning shows Trump in deep trouble in Arizona. The survey, conducted by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Trump by a 52 percent to 42 percent margin.

It is the eighth consecutive public poll that has showed Biden leading in Arizona and Biden has led in 17 of the last 20 polls. A CBS News poll released Sunday showed Biden leading by a smaller three-point margin, 47 percent to 44 percent.

OH Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan firm, has showed Biden leading Trump throughout the year, by between four and ten points. In August, before either party convention, the firm found Biden ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. Biden?s current lead comes in a survey sample in which Republicans outnumber Democrats by five percentage points.

The latest poll underscores the foundations of Biden?s lead over Trump, in both national and swing-state surveys: He is winning about the same percentage of voters as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among groups that lean toward Democrats, but he is doing substantially better among groups that chose Trump over Clinton four years ago.

Biden and Clinton pull about the same percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters, 59 percent in the current poll and 61 percent for Clinton four years ago. But where Clinton lost white voters in Arizona by 14 points, according to exit polls, Biden leads by six among those voters.

Clinton won female voters in Arizona by nine points four years ago, and Biden holds a 12 point lead among them in the current survey. Among men, Trump won four years ago by eight points; today, he trails Biden among men by seven points, a 15-point swing.

Biden and Clinton hold support from almost identical shares of Democratic voters and moderates, a group that favored both Democrats by about 20 percentage points. Among independents, a group that tends to favor Republicans, Clinton lost by three points, according to exit polls; Biden leads the OH Predictive Insights survey among independent voters by 21 points.

?Trump has a bit of a base problem. His base is less united. Biden?s is fully united, and independents are breaking heavy and hard away from Trump,? said Mike Noble, who conducted the OH Predictive Insights poll.

Trump?s campaign dismissed the poll. In a call with reporters last week, campaign manager Bill Stepien said internal surveys showed Trump leading Biden by two points.

?This is not a serious poll and it is not remotely accurate,? said Tim Murtaugh, the campaign?s communications chief.

Arizona has long been safely in the Republican column. It has voted Democratic for president just once since Harry Truman?s landslide in 1948, and in that 1996 election Democrat Bill Clinton won just 46.5 percent of the vote, enough to win the state only because Ross Perot took almost 8 percent. Republicans held both the state?s Senate seats for 24 years, until Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) won her seat in 2018.

But below the surface, the state has changed substantially. Arizona has a booming tech sector, and a relatively inexpensive housing market that has attracted a new and younger generation of workers with more liberal views.

Since 2000, Arizona?s population has grown by 50 percent, from 4.9 million to 7.3 million. Republicans enjoyed a 170,000-voter registration advantage in 2012; today, the GOP edge is 99,000 voters.

In Maricopa County, one of the fastest growing counties in America and home to two in three Arizona residents, about a third of the new residents who moved here in the last year have been from Pacific Coast states, according to Census Bureau data.

?What?s had the biggest impact is the growth of young, urban, maybe some suburban white voters from places like California, Washington, Oregon. It?s made Maricopa County specifically much more purple in areas that didn?t sued to be purple,? said Nathan Sproul, a longtime Arizona Republican strategist.

Some Arizona political observers believe the last two Republican nominees before Trump effectively masked the demographic changes that were taking place. Sen. John McCain, the favorite son, beat Barack Obama in his home state by almost nine points in 2008. Four years later, Mitt Romney beat Obama by nine points, in part on his strength among Mormon voters who make up about 5 percent of the state.

Both Biden?s campaign and Trump?s have made Arizona a key priority, a sign of its prominence at the fulcrum of American politics.

Four years after Clinton committed $3.5 million to television advertising in Arizona, Biden had spent about seven times that much even before the Labor Day sprint to the finish line. Trump has spent $9 million here, more than any Republican nominee in recent memory.

In an email, a Trump campaign spokeswoman said his team had maintained a presence in Arizona since 2016. The campaign said it had contacted voters 4.8 million, and that its meetup events had attracted more than 22,700 fans.

Arizona political observers say Maricopa is the key to either Biden?s or Trump?s hopes of winning the state, and perhaps the Oval Office. Only one candidate has won statewide office in recent history without winning the Phoenix-based county.

?Republicans have to win in Maricopa County by six to seven points, as a general rule, and then hold down the losses in Pima County and have a big turnout in our rural counties like Yavapai and Mohave, some of those really strong Republican counties,? Sproul said.

In 2016, Trump won Maricopa County by five percentage points. Noble?s latest poll shows Biden leading there by an unprecedented 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent.

Noble warned Trump is running out of time ? which may be why he is visiting Arizona on Monday.

?With early voting three weeks away, time is the most precious resource,? he said.

The poll, conducted Sept. 8-10 among 600 like voters, carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
 

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Trump shares manipulated video of Biden, replacing ?Despacito? with N.W.A?s anti-police anthem
Tim Elfrink 4 hrs ago

On his first visit to Florida as a presidential nominee on Tuesday, Joe Biden whipped out his cellphone to play ?Despacito,? as a tribute to its singer, Luis Fonsi, who introduced the former vice president at the event. The moment exploded on social media, inspiring jokes, memes and a surprise resurgence of the 2017 single onto Twitter?s trending topics.

Early on Wednesday morning, President Trump joined the fray ? but in the video he tweeted, it wasn?t ?Despacito? playing from Biden?s phone. It was N.W.A?s notorious 1988 single ?F--- tha Police.?

?What is this all about?? Trump asked over the manipulated video.

Trump and his conservative allies have ramped up a campaign of online disinformation in recent weeks, as The Washington Post?s Ashley Parker reported, with the president in particular tweeting out numerous false claims and misleadingly labeled videos. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump shared a tweet baselessly accusing Biden of being a pedophile.

Trump and allies ratchet up disinformation efforts in late stage of campaign
Twitter has repeatedly labeled videos shared by Trump and his campaign as ?manipulated,? and in several cases removed media after the president retweeted it ? including a video by a Texas doctor named Stella Immanuel claiming without evidence that masks aren?t effective in halting the transmission of the novel coronavirus.

The Biden video shared by Trump, which had been viewed nearly 2 million times by early Wednesday morning, was later slapped with a ?manipulated media? tag from the social media company.

The real clip comes from Biden?s visit to Kissimmee, Fla., on Tuesday, at an event aimed at Puerto Rican voters in the key swing state. After introductions by Latin music stars Ricky Martin and Fonsi, Biden said, ?I have just one thing to say,? before holding a phone blaring ?Despacito? to the microphone.

Biden visits Florida as Democrats worry about his standing in the state
The manipulated version of the moment shared by Trump echoes his campaign?s months-long effort to paint Biden as anti-law enforcement, often by falsely claiming that Biden supports defunding the police.

In the 27-second clip, Biden appears to nod along to the words of the incendiary protest song, including the opening verse by Ice Cube that includes an uncensored use of the n-word and the line ?police think they have the authority to kill a minority.?

The song has long been a political flash point. When it was released by the hip-hop group in 1988, it was banned from radio stations, protested heavily by police departments and unions, and led the FBI to write a stern letter to the group?s record label. One state attorney general threatened criminal charges against record stores selling it, the Daily Beast reported.

On streaming services, the song has seen a resurgence this year ? not surprisingly, N.W.A members said, since they wrote the song to protest many of the issues still driving mass demonstrations this summer against police brutality and racial inequality.

?What you hear on the record is all the frustration, all the times getting harassed, getting pulled over for no reason at all, getting disrespected, having them try to disrespect your parents all because of your skin color,? N.W.A member MC Ren told Rolling Stone in June. ?All of that builds up and you make a record.?
 

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Everyone in the world should be very alarmed at this response ..
 

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Presidential Debate Moderators Not Expected To Fact-Check Candidates, Debate Commission Says
Andrew Solender
Andrew SolenderForbes Staff


https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrew...ndidates-debate-commission-says/#13eb35da7439

TOPLINE Presidential Debate Commission co-chair Frank Fahrenkopf Jr. said Sunday that presidential debate moderators are not expected to fact-check either candidate ahead of the first debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday.
KEY FACTS
Fahrenkopf said on CNN?s Reliable Sources that there?s a ?vast difference? between ?a moderator in a debate? and a ?reporter who is interviewing someone.?

?The minute the TV is off, there are going to be plenty of fact-checkers at every newspaper and every television station in the world,? Fahrenkopf added, noting, ?that?s not the main role of our moderators.?

Fahrenkopf pitched the Commission?s role in laissez faire terms, stating that its function is to ?put on television, before the people of the United States, the two candidates,? and that the candidates ?will act as they are going to act? but that the Commission ?has no control over that.?

The comments come just after Trump demanded the Commission administer drug tests based on an unfounded conspiracy theory that Biden needs performance enhancing drugs for debates, though Frankenkopf rejected drug testing as ?not within our bailiwick.?

A handful of Democrats have called for Biden not to participate in the debates, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi accusing Trump of lacking an ?association with truth, evidence, data, facts? and saying Biden should not ?dignify that conversation.?

Biden has acknowledged those concerns, proposing earlier this month that candidates be ?instantly fact-checked by an agreed-to group of people? through a ?crawler? on TV screens.

CHIEF CRITIC
?So basically, both Biden and Wallace have said they won?t fact-check the president on Tuesday night at the debate. So Trump gets to do what he does best, with aid of a massive national platform: tell brazen lies again & again, without interruption or rebuttal. Great. Amazing,? tweeted left-wing columnist Mehdi Hasan.

BIG NUMBER
20,055. That?s how many false or misleading claims Trump has made in 1,267 days as president, according to the Washington Post. Glenn Kessler, the Post?s fact-checker, tweeted ?the trendline is getting worse and worse the closer we get to the election,? adding that, each day, Trump makes ?at least 35 false claims. Many days, 100+?

SURPRISING FACT
Contrary to the usual strategy of raising expectations for one's opponent, Trump has long lowered expectations for Biden. In addition to his claims that Biden needs performance enhancing drugs, Trump has cast Biden as mentally and physically frail, and said earlier this month that Biden?s Democratic primary debate showings were ?the worst debate performances I've ever seen.? That has culminated in Trump holding a narrow polling edge in who people think will win the debate, meaning he enters with heightened expectations.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Fox News Host Chris Wallace will moderate the first debate on Sept. 29 in Cleveland, Ohio, C-SPAN political editor Steve Scully will moderate the second on Oct. 15 in Miami, Florida, and NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker will moderate the third on Oct. 22 in Nashville, Tennessee. The vice presidential debate will take place on Oct. 7 in Salt Lake City, Utah and will be moderated by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page.
 

Old School

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Five things to watch in the first Trump-Biden debate
BY MAX GREENWOOD - 09/29/20 06:00 AM EDT

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/518662-five-things-to-watch-in-the-first-trump-biden-debate

Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden will face off for the first time on Tuesday in what could be the most consequential debate of the 2020 presidential election.

With the coronavirus pandemic still raging, a heated fight brewing over the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg?s Supreme Court seat and voters in a handful of states already casting their ballots, the first presidential debate will give both candidates their highest-profile chance to date to make their cases.

Fox News anchor Chris Wallace will moderate the showdown and has already selected a series of topics to guide the discussion.

Here are five things to watch for on Tuesday night.

What?s the focus of the debate?

Wallace has broken up the debate into six parts: the coronavirus pandemic, the Supreme Court, Trump?s and Biden?s records, the economy, the integrity of the election and ?race and violence in our cities.?

But the candidates have already indicated what they want to talk about. Biden has so far sought to make the presidential election a referendum on Trump?s handling of the pandemic, casting him as a failed leader in the face of a global crisis even as other flash points, such as the vacancy on the Supreme Court, enter the fold.

Trump, meanwhile, has been less focused in his appeals to voters, jumping between different arguments throughout the campaign. But Tuesday?s debate could give him the opportunity to seize on one of those arguments ? the pre-pandemic economy, for instance, or his accusation that Biden has drifted too far to the left.

How personal does it get?

Tuesday?s debate has the potential to be among the most personal in modern history. Both candidates have already shown a willingness to go after not only each other?s records, but also their character as well, and Trump in particular has a penchant for shattering the boundaries that have traditionally governed political debates.

Trump and his allies have already sought to attack Biden over his son Hunter?s business dealings abroad. And the president has routinely and misleadingly denigrated Biden over his mental health and stamina.

Biden, meanwhile, has focused much of his campaign on Trump?s character, casting the 2020 election as a battle for the ?soul? of America. Expect that line of attack to come through Tuesday.

A bombshell New York Times report revealing that Trump paid just $750 in federal income tax in both 2016 and 2017 and used questionable tactics to lower his tax bill could also provide fodder for Biden at the debate, allowing him to hammer Trump?s personal finances on top of his performance in the White House.

How does Chris Wallace handle the candidates?

Wallace won praise for his role moderating the third debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016, and he?s shown a willingness to challenge both of the current candidates in interviews. While the spotlight will be on Trump and Biden on Tuesday night, Wallace is also sure to face scrutiny of his own for how he handles the showdown.

Some Democrats are skeptical of Wallace?s ability to moderate a fair debate, pointing to his selection of the topic ?race and violence in our cities.? Critics argue that the topic is framed in a way that plays into one of Trump?s central campaign arguments, rather than facilitating a discussion on racial injustice and police brutality.

There are also questions as to how aggressive Wallace will be in pushing back against false or misleading statements. The Fox News anchor has argued in the past that it?s not the job of moderators to fact-check debates. And on Sunday, he offered a hint as to how he will approach Tuesday?s debate.

?My job is to be as invisible as possible,? Wallace said on Fox News.

Will the candidates keep control of their tempers?

Both Trump and Biden have shown a tendency at times to lose their tempers when confronted over their records, and Tuesday is shaping up to be a test of their nerves.

Trump, in particular, is likely to try to throw Biden off balance in an effort to bolster his argument that the former vice president lacks the acuity to lead the country. If Biden can keep his cool, however, it may help him counter Trump?s repeated efforts to raise questions about his mental health.

But there are also risks for Trump, who often responds furiously when questioned on his record, both as a businessman and in the White House. He?s already trailing Biden in most public polls, and an angry outburst on the debate stage will likely only bolster Biden?s central argument that Trump is unfit for the office he holds.

What do they do to appeal to women?

Biden is heading into the debate with broad support among female voters, including some who helped elect Trump in 2016, and he?ll need to keep that support high to win the White House in November.

The Supreme Court battle could provide Biden the opportunity to consolidate moderate and left-leaning female voters by bringing up the threat a 6-3 conservative majority on the court would pose to Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that cleared the way for abortion rights nationwide.

Meanwhile, Trump may look to his law-and-order message in an effort to appeal to suburban women who have abandoned the Republican Party in droves since 2016. That argument was a core part of his messaging during the Republican National Convention last month, though it?s unclear whether it?s enough to close his yawning gap with Biden among those voters.
 

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'Too hot': GOP allies urge Trump to change tactics for next debate. It's not clear he'll heed the advice
John Fritze
Courtney Subramanian
David Jackson
USA TODAY
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...er-change-gears-next-debate-biden/5871363002/

Frank Luntz, a veteran GOP pollster who conducted a focus group with independent voters during the first debate, said Trump is probably on safe ground being aggressive for at least part of the debate. The problem he faces, Luntz said, is when he continues that same combative approach for 90 minutes straight.


"Someone should have told the president that debates require finesse, not just raw power," Luntz said. "If Donald Trump does to the town hall what he did to Chris Wallace, he'll be booed on live television."
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Always good to be on the right side of a fixed bet!

:0074
That?s what I was hoping I know he doesn?t.t want any off it...just trying his political pandering.
5 dimes had no lines on Oct 2nd. I could hedge the hell on this bet if I can get and radicals to bite instead of just chin music.:142smilie

you make the best rib eyes I ever had..be safe brother
 

MadJack

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That?s what I was hoping I know he doesn?t.t want any off it...just trying his political pandering.
5 dimes had no lines on Oct 2nd. I could hedge the hell on this bet if I can get and radicals to bite instead of just chin music.:142smilie

you make the best rib eyes I ever had..be safe brother

This is 5dimes right now. I just posted the odds for the hell of it I'm not betting. :0008


 

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MadJack

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MadJack

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5dimes right now. Okay Wayne, I?ll lay you $2900/$2000.


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MadJack

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5 dimes had no lines on Oct 2nd.

I didn't catch this. 5dimes did, in fact, have lines on October 2 and I posted right from their site probably within 30 seconds. If you'd like to wager on that I am sure I can get it confirmed by top brass there that I posted exactly the way they had it posted.

I'll wager my right leg and left arm to your $20K.
 
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