Trying to Hit the Spot - 2012 NFL Plays

[johnnyonthespot]

Hey there fellow MJers! Baseball is my offseason so I've been away since Final Four weekend but it's good to be back again and I'm looking forward to another successful NFL season!

Final record for 2011
Regular Season
Sides: 48-44-1 +2.4 units
Parlays/Teasers: 6-7 +6.6 units
Total: +9.0 units

Postseason
Sides: 11-5 +10.6 units
Teasers: 1-1 -.15 units
Total +10.45 units

Grand Total for 2011: +19.45 units

+19.45 units is the figure to beat!

Like last year I will keep all of my plays in this thread and update my record as we go. So without further ado . . .

Tonight I'm going with these:

Dallas +4 (1 unit) - The last couple years I have gone against the Super Bowl champ on opening night . . . and have been burned every time. Well, I guess I'm just a glutton for punishment because I'm at it again! I'm done with thinking that the defending champs will come out flat because that just doesn't seem to happen. But I just can't resist catching 4 in a division rivalry game. Dallas is coming off of a disappointing season last year in which it lost 4 of its last 5 - two of which were against these Giants. Think they will come out with a chip on their shoulder and can at least keep this one close.

Over 46 (1 unit): Giants secondary is banged up and I'm just not convinced that either of these Ds are elite. Manning and Romo should find success through the air and I think each team will find their way into the 20s and send this one Over.

GL everyone!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Well, the Over appears to be DOA.

Adding:

Giants -3 2H (1 unit) - Think the Giants will pull this one out; hoping for a 3-point Giant victory and a nice middle.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record: 1-2 (-1.1 units)

Well, not the start I was looking for. Should have just stood pat at halftime. On the other hand, if the Giants could have gotten that last stop on 3rd and 12, got a decent chance of hitting the over and then possibly all 3 in OT. But it was not to be so I'll just take my lumps and move on.

Still looking at the weekend card but there are a couple I do like a lot.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Going with these today:

3-team 7-point teaser:
Bears -3
Saints -1
Lions -2
2 units to win 2.8

We really don't know yet who's actually good this year and who isn't, but I just don't see either of the above getting upset at home today. All of these should be double-digit wins in fact, but invariably at least one will be close.

St. Louis/Detroit Over 46 (1 unit)

Despite the uncertainty with the running game, I still expect the Lions offense to be a high octane one. And, correspondingly, I don't have faith that their D will be a shut down one. I'm seeing something like a 35-21 type game.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Colts/Bears Over 42.5 (1 unit) - both teams should score some points

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

2H Saints -7 (1 unit)
Just can't believe they will actually lose this game at home. Big special teams TD hopefully fired them up. That D looked like they expected RG3 to just show up and wet himself. They need to get pressure to him and not give up any more 88-yard TDs. Credit the Skins for largely keeping Brees on the sidelines for most of the 1st half.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:
Just can't believe they will actually lose this game at home.

I'm starting to believe . . .

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 3-3 (-.3 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-2 units)

Ugh; Saints kills the teaser and the 2H play. Not good. Promised myself I would stay away from them in the early season due to the Bounty-gate distraction, but then allowed myself to be swayed by the vacating of the penalties yesterday. Good news for the Saints is that Brees and the offense appear to be as good as ever. Bad news is that the defense is going to have to improve a whole lot to give them a chance.

Got a couple afternoon games but didn't post them in time so won't count them in my record. Back after this round with a play tonight.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

2H
Panthers -4 (1 unit) - They can't get shut out right?
Packers -6 (1 unit) - They will make this a game

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 4-4 (-.4 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-2 units)

I continue slowly leaking money. Going with this in the night-cap:

Steelers +3 (1 unit)
IMO this line should be a Pk but I am hoping it's just Manning fever that has everyone so high on the Broncos. I definitely believe the revenge factor will be significant motivation tonight.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 4-5 (-1.4 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-2 units)

Getting ugly in a hurry. Going with this in the late game:

Raiders -1 (2 units) - This is largely a line play. The Pick 'Em league I am in (which is usually a pretty good proxy of public consensus) has 67% picking the Chargers tonight. So to see Oakland favored strikes me as unusual. Oakland is a decent team, especially at home, and I'm just not a big believer in Rivers or the Chargers anymore. Think they had there window a few years ago and it has passed them by now.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Haven't had time for write-ups the last couple weeks (small children have this strange habit of cutting in on 90% of your free time) but right now the 7-month-old is sleeping and the 3-year-old is enthralled watching a Wiggles DVD so I've got some time.

Anyway, I've still been wagering the last couple weeks and it has been a mixed bag (good in week 2 and bad in week 3). As ever, looking to get back on track today.

Here we go:

Rams +3 (1 unit) - Good spot for the Rams here and bad one for the Seahawks. Seattle is a decent team but on the road after a short week with the distraction of the Monday night debachle and I can't see them giving their best effort here. Rams got their clock cleaned by the Bears last week but they are a lot better at home. Looking for a bounce-back game from them. Think they win outright but I'll take the 3.

Lions -4 (1 unit) - Put me in the camp of "non-believer" regarding the Vikings right now. I might need to reassess if they come out strong today but I look for Detroit to finally put together a decent performance today and Minny to come back to Earth after the big win over San Fran last week.

Houston -12 (1 unit) - Don't usually like to lay double-digits but feel that it's warranted here. Titans are not a good team and they will find this Texans D quite a bit stingier than the Lions were last week. I just honestly don't see the Titans managing more than 13 points in this one and I think the Texans can get to 27.

Panthers/Falcons Over 48.5 (1 unit) - Panthers have scored 10, 35, and 7 so far this year so have been inconsistent to say the least. However, they have given up 16, 27, and 36 so their defense appears to be pretty bad and getting worse. We know that Atlantas can put up points (40, 27, and 27 so far) so I look for them to continue doing that and for Carolina to get back on track offensively after the long rest. I see a 31-24 game.

Parlay (.25 units to win 2.75 units):
Rams +3
Lions -4
Texans -12
Falcons/Panthers Over 48.5

Good luck everyone!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Still not a believer in the Vikings but wow are the Lions special teams terrible! 2 weeks in a row they have allowed both a kick and punt return for a TD. Don't ever remember another NFL team doing that.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Going with these in the late games (all for 1 unit):

Jaguars +3
Broncos -7
Bucs -3
Saints +9

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Eagles -1 (1 unit) for SNF. Back shortly to update my record.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 9-9 (-1.9 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-2 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.25 units)

Up 1.25 units, but was a Detroit victory and cover away from having a very nice day. Still, regardless of the way the night game turns out it will be a winning day and given the way things have been going so far this year for me I can't complain about that.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 10-9 (-1.0 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-2 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.25 units)

OK, we have righted the ship somewhat. Let's keep it going tonight with this:

6.5-point teaser (1 unit to win .8 units):
Bears +10
Over 35

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 10-9 (-1.0 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (-1.2 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.25 units)

Crawling back to even inch by inch but at least headed in the right direction now.

Going with the Rams +2 tonight for 1 unit. Rams are 2-0 at home so far this season and have been competitive in all 4 games, with the exception of a late pick-6 against the Bears that put the game out of reach. Zona is lucky to still be undefeated after last week. They head on the road for just the 2nd time this season and, unlike the Pats a few weeks ago, I think the Rams will be ready for them.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated Record:

Sides/Totals: 11-9 (-.2 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (-1.2 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-.25 units)

Still looking at today's card, so far this is my only play:

Parlay (2 units to win 2.8):
Steelers ML -180
Bengals ML -180

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding these:

Bengals -3 at -135 (1 unit to win .75 units) - Bengals are underrated and I think Miami blew its offensive wad last weekend at Arizona.

Steelers -3 at -135 (1 unit to win .75 units) - Steelers will come out with a vengeance after the bye and blowing the last game at Oakland. Eagles coming off of a last-second emotional win over the Giants that they probably should have lost. Steelers' season is basically on the line today and I think they will play like it.

Steelers/Eagles Over 44 (1 unit) - Neither of these Ds are elite anymore. Both should get into the 20s.

And the play of the day . . .

Panthers -3 (2 units) - This Seattle team should really be 1-3 and everyone knows it. This Carolina team IS 1-3 but other than a Thursday-night debacle against the Giants they have been very competitive. This is another team with their season on the line today and I think they will rise to the occasion.

Depending on how the early games go I may add another unit to this one.

GL everyone!