Trying to Hit the Spot - 2012 NFL Plays
- Thread starter johnnyonthespot
- Start date
Adding:
Falcons/Skins Over 51 (1 unit) - weather scared me off of this one a bit but looks like it won't be too bad. Will continue to bet the Falcons Overs until they give me a reason not to.
Falcons/Skins Over 51 (1 unit) - weather scared me off of this one a bit but looks like it won't be too bad. Will continue to bet the Falcons Overs until they give me a reason not to.
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 11-13 (-4.2 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (-1.2 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Holy sh*t, talk about a bloodbath! Nothing like climbing back towards even for two weeks just to be swatted back down again. Need Panthers to come through just to avoid going 0-for-everything. There are always days like this, but they are never fun. Apologies to anyone who followed me.
Sides/Totals: 11-13 (-4.2 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (-1.2 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Holy sh*t, talk about a bloodbath! Nothing like climbing back towards even for two weeks just to be swatted back down again. Need Panthers to come through just to avoid going 0-for-everything. There are always days like this, but they are never fun. Apologies to anyone who followed me.
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 11-14 (-6.2 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
And for the 2nd time this season I find myself saying let us never speak of yesterday again.
Tonight, I can make 0 case for the Jets to win this one or even keep it close but on principle I refuse to lay double-digits on the road in the NFL so I'm going with this:
Houston/NYJ Under 41 (1 unit)
GL everyone
Sides/Totals: 11-14 (-6.2 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
And for the 2nd time this season I find myself saying let us never speak of yesterday again.
Tonight, I can make 0 case for the Jets to win this one or even keep it close but on principle I refuse to lay double-digits on the road in the NFL so I'm going with this:
Houston/NYJ Under 41 (1 unit)
GL everyone
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 12-14 (-5.3 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Finally got lucky with the MNF under. Tonight, going with:
Tennesee +7 -125 for 1 unit (buying half a point) - Gut play more than anything. Steelers have a history of playing poorly at Tennessee. They are also banged up and 0-2 on the road so far this season. Was thinking about Titans ML but that may be a bridge too far for me. They should keep it within the number though.
GL!
Sides/Totals: 12-14 (-5.3 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Finally got lucky with the MNF under. Tonight, going with:
Tennesee +7 -125 for 1 unit (buying half a point) - Gut play more than anything. Steelers have a history of playing poorly at Tennessee. They are also banged up and 0-2 on the road so far this season. Was thinking about Titans ML but that may be a bridge too far for me. They should keep it within the number though.
GL!
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 13-14 (-4.4 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Well apparently it wasn't a bridge too far to say the Titans would win. Going to be out of town from this afternoon till early Sunday afternoon so I'm getting these in a little earlier than usual.
Browns +3 (1 unit) - Despite the early returns, I actually like Weeden. If his receivers could catch, they could have beaten the Ravens. Also think they actually gained some confidence by jumping out on the Giants last week (even though they went on to get steamrolled). They competed against the Bengals a month ago (losing by 7 at Cinncy) so they know they can play with this team. Cinncy will be reeling from an ugly home loss to Miami. Cleveland should at least keep this within the number.
Bucs -4 (1 unit) - Chiefs are a mess right now and will throw Brady Quinn out there Sunday. Have to figure they will try and run a lot and that is going right into the strength of the KC defense. Bucs coming off of a bye and looking to save their season.
Seahawks +4 (1 unit) - Seattle is always very tough at home, that defense is playing outstanding, the Pats D is not very good at all, and they're making the long trip from one coast to another. Might end up throwing a little on the ML on this one too.
Texans -3 (1 unit) - Public apparently continues to believe that this Packers teams is last year's Packer. They aren't and Houston has been by far the better team so far this year. This line should be 6.
Chargers -1 (1 unit) - Public also continues to believe that Manning is the Broncos savior, despite the 2-3 record. Rivers knows the Chargers let one get away from them last week at New Orleans, they won't make the same mistake at home this week.
If I get back earlier I may have some more.
GL everyone!
Sides/Totals: 13-14 (-4.4 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Well apparently it wasn't a bridge too far to say the Titans would win. Going to be out of town from this afternoon till early Sunday afternoon so I'm getting these in a little earlier than usual.
Browns +3 (1 unit) - Despite the early returns, I actually like Weeden. If his receivers could catch, they could have beaten the Ravens. Also think they actually gained some confidence by jumping out on the Giants last week (even though they went on to get steamrolled). They competed against the Bengals a month ago (losing by 7 at Cinncy) so they know they can play with this team. Cinncy will be reeling from an ugly home loss to Miami. Cleveland should at least keep this within the number.
Bucs -4 (1 unit) - Chiefs are a mess right now and will throw Brady Quinn out there Sunday. Have to figure they will try and run a lot and that is going right into the strength of the KC defense. Bucs coming off of a bye and looking to save their season.
Seahawks +4 (1 unit) - Seattle is always very tough at home, that defense is playing outstanding, the Pats D is not very good at all, and they're making the long trip from one coast to another. Might end up throwing a little on the ML on this one too.
Texans -3 (1 unit) - Public apparently continues to believe that this Packers teams is last year's Packer. They aren't and Houston has been by far the better team so far this year. This line should be 6.
Chargers -1 (1 unit) - Public also continues to believe that Manning is the Broncos savior, despite the 2-3 record. Rivers knows the Chargers let one get away from them last week at New Orleans, they won't make the same mistake at home this week.
If I get back earlier I may have some more.
GL everyone!
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 16-14 (-1.7 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
3-0 so far today with Houston pending but not looking good right now. Might have a 2nd half play on this one but I'm not sure if the Texans have it in 'em to make this comeback. Packers just need this one more and are playing like it.
Sides/Totals: 16-14 (-1.7 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
3-0 so far today with Houston pending but not looking good right now. Might have a 2nd half play on this one but I'm not sure if the Texans have it in 'em to make this comeback. Packers just need this one more and are playing like it.
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 16-16 (-3.7 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Well . . . that's definitely the worst best I've had in a while. Denver looked to be toast so I didn't even bother hedging and going for the middle in the 2nd half. Now after this I will probably go for the middle the next 10 times and won't hit it once. C'est la vie.
Still a winning week but obviously disappointing given the start yesterday. What can you say? We'll get 'em next week!
Sides/Totals: 16-16 (-3.7 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Well . . . that's definitely the worst best I've had in a while. Denver looked to be toast so I didn't even bother hedging and going for the middle in the 2nd half. Now after this I will probably go for the middle the next 10 times and won't hit it once. C'est la vie.
Still a winning week but obviously disappointing given the start yesterday. What can you say? We'll get 'em next week!
Got all my bets in early again this week. Tonight going with:
49ers -7 (1 unit) - Real good spot for the 49ers and a bad spot for the Seahawks. One coming off a bad home loss and the other coming off a huge home victory. 49ers will roll tonight.
Other plays:
Rams +6
Pats -11
Skins +6
Vikings -6
Write-ups to come later.
49ers -7 (1 unit) - Real good spot for the 49ers and a bad spot for the Seahawks. One coming off a bad home loss and the other coming off a huge home victory. 49ers will roll tonight.
Other plays:
Rams +6
Pats -11
Skins +6
Vikings -6
Write-ups to come later.
Call me a sucker, but . . .
49ers -6 2H (1 unit) - Hopefully they have every player and coach on the 49ers all pulling hard together to get Alex Smith's head out of his ass.
49ers -6 2H (1 unit) - Hopefully they have every player and coach on the 49ers all pulling hard together to get Alex Smith's head out of his ass.
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 17-16-1 (-2.8 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Don't know what to say about the declined safety that hasn't already been said ad nauseam. I've just never ever seen that before and it always seems like every time I see something for the first time (like a team coming back from a 24-point deficit on MNF) it costs me money.
At least the 2H play hit and I still pushed on the overall game so still a positive night overall (on the NFL anyway, let's not talk about NCAAF).
Brief thoughts on my other plays:
Rams +6 (1 unit) - Rams are a good team at home, and actually are a pretty decent team overall wherever they play. Not the doormats they have been, though the public still seems to want to treat them that way. Green Bay also coming off of a huge win and going on the road again for a 2nd straight week. This one will be close.
Pats -11 (1 unit) - Jets destroyed Indy last week but you know what? They still have all the same problems they had when they lost to Houston and were destroyed by San Fran. And, most importantly, they still have one Mark Sanchez at QB. Jets defense is nothing to write home about (especially without Revas) and after facing the stiff Seattle defense last week Brady should be ready to pick them apart. Pats will put up at least 35 in this one and I have no faith that the Jets can score 24 (something they hadn't managed before last week)
Redskins +6 (1 unit) - Another overreaction line. Giants coming off of a huge win at San Fran last week but unfortunately for them RGIII's offense is far superior to Alex Smith's. This one could turn into a shootout. I look for a letdown effort from the Giants and the Skins to keep it close.
Vikings -6 (1 unit) - My first time backing the Vikes this year, but I think it's a good spot for them. Both teams here are coming off brutal late losses last week where both feel they should have won (Zona kicked a 61-yd FG and then doinked one under 40 as time expired and Minny dominated Washington early but only had 3 FGs to show for it and left the door open). Vikes have a very good D-line that can get pressure to the QB and at times it seems like Arizona's O-line is made out of holograms - that will not make for a pretty combo for the Cards and Kolb will be running for his life all day long.
Still looking at some others; may have more by Sunday.
Sides/Totals: 17-16-1 (-2.8 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Don't know what to say about the declined safety that hasn't already been said ad nauseam. I've just never ever seen that before and it always seems like every time I see something for the first time (like a team coming back from a 24-point deficit on MNF) it costs me money.
At least the 2H play hit and I still pushed on the overall game so still a positive night overall (on the NFL anyway, let's not talk about NCAAF).
Brief thoughts on my other plays:
Rams +6 (1 unit) - Rams are a good team at home, and actually are a pretty decent team overall wherever they play. Not the doormats they have been, though the public still seems to want to treat them that way. Green Bay also coming off of a huge win and going on the road again for a 2nd straight week. This one will be close.
Pats -11 (1 unit) - Jets destroyed Indy last week but you know what? They still have all the same problems they had when they lost to Houston and were destroyed by San Fran. And, most importantly, they still have one Mark Sanchez at QB. Jets defense is nothing to write home about (especially without Revas) and after facing the stiff Seattle defense last week Brady should be ready to pick them apart. Pats will put up at least 35 in this one and I have no faith that the Jets can score 24 (something they hadn't managed before last week)
Redskins +6 (1 unit) - Another overreaction line. Giants coming off of a huge win at San Fran last week but unfortunately for them RGIII's offense is far superior to Alex Smith's. This one could turn into a shootout. I look for a letdown effort from the Giants and the Skins to keep it close.
Vikings -6 (1 unit) - My first time backing the Vikes this year, but I think it's a good spot for them. Both teams here are coming off brutal late losses last week where both feel they should have won (Zona kicked a 61-yd FG and then doinked one under 40 as time expired and Minny dominated Washington early but only had 3 FGs to show for it and left the door open). Vikes have a very good D-line that can get pressure to the QB and at times it seems like Arizona's O-line is made out of holograms - that will not make for a pretty combo for the Cards and Kolb will be running for his life all day long.
Still looking at some others; may have more by Sunday.
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 19-18-1 (-3.0 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Juiced out today. Rams played decently but looks like Green Bay has completely righted the ship after the Indy disaster. And yet again New England shows that they just can't close out opponents this year.
Took Cinncy tonight but didn't get it posted in time so it won't count on my record. Already will be cheering for my Bears tomorrow so don't think I'll have a play then either. May have some halftime action. If not, till next week . . .
Sides/Totals: 19-18-1 (-3.0 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Juiced out today. Rams played decently but looks like Green Bay has completely righted the ship after the Indy disaster. And yet again New England shows that they just can't close out opponents this year.
Took Cinncy tonight but didn't get it posted in time so it won't count on my record. Already will be cheering for my Bears tomorrow so don't think I'll have a play then either. May have some halftime action. If not, till next week . . .
Tonight:
Tampa +7 - Their strength is stopping the run. Don't think Ponder can win this by DD on his own
Tampa +7 - Their strength is stopping the run. Don't think Ponder can win this by DD on his own
Updated Record:
Sides/Totals: 20-18-1 (-2.1 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Titans ML (1.8 units to win 1) - Luck has learned how to win - at home. Winning on the road is something else entirely, and not something I expect him to have much success at this season. Titans appear to have righted the ship behind Johnson and Hasselbeck. They should be able to pull out a W today at home. They still don't have much of a defense though, so . . .
Colts/Titans Over 47 (1 unit) - On a points per game basis, Titans have the worst defense in the NFL, giving up a whopping 34 PPG. Only difference of late is that they have been able to put up enough points to overcome that and I think that will be the case here. I am seeing a 31-27 type of game here, but the real bet here is that Titans can get to 24 and guarantee me at least one of these two here.
Eagles -3 (1 unit) - This is the first of 2 "grit your teeth and play it anyway" plays. Falcons are clearly the better team here, and it's not even particularly close. So why are they 3 point dogs? That implies that this game would be a Pk on a neutral field and that's just ludicrous. So in my opinion, this line is just begging for Falcons money and I refuse to rise to the bait. There also is the matter of Reid's teams being 13-0 after a bye.
Chiefs -1 (1 unit) - God help me I am backing Brady Quinn today. Just think this is a rare "good spot" for the Chiefs. Chiefs don't have a win at home yet and Raiders don't have a win on the road. Have a feeling that the former changes but not the latter.
Still looking at a couple of others.
GL everyone!
Sides/Totals: 20-18-1 (-2.1 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Titans ML (1.8 units to win 1) - Luck has learned how to win - at home. Winning on the road is something else entirely, and not something I expect him to have much success at this season. Titans appear to have righted the ship behind Johnson and Hasselbeck. They should be able to pull out a W today at home. They still don't have much of a defense though, so . . .
Colts/Titans Over 47 (1 unit) - On a points per game basis, Titans have the worst defense in the NFL, giving up a whopping 34 PPG. Only difference of late is that they have been able to put up enough points to overcome that and I think that will be the case here. I am seeing a 31-27 type of game here, but the real bet here is that Titans can get to 24 and guarantee me at least one of these two here.
Eagles -3 (1 unit) - This is the first of 2 "grit your teeth and play it anyway" plays. Falcons are clearly the better team here, and it's not even particularly close. So why are they 3 point dogs? That implies that this game would be a Pk on a neutral field and that's just ludicrous. So in my opinion, this line is just begging for Falcons money and I refuse to rise to the bait. There also is the matter of Reid's teams being 13-0 after a bye.
Chiefs -1 (1 unit) - God help me I am backing Brady Quinn today. Just think this is a rare "good spot" for the Chiefs. Chiefs don't have a win at home yet and Raiders don't have a win on the road. Have a feeling that the former changes but not the latter.
Still looking at a couple of others.
GL everyone!
Adding:
Bears -4.5 2H (2 units) - That first half was about as bad as it could be for the Bears and they are still only down 6. This team makes good adjustments and I expect both the offense and defense to play better in the 2nd half.
Bears -4.5 2H (2 units) - That first half was about as bad as it could be for the Bears and they are still only down 6. This team makes good adjustments and I expect both the offense and defense to play better in the 2nd half.
Sides/Totals: 21-22-1 (-5.1 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Ugh; Bears 2nd half play kept this day from being an epic disaster, so instead it was just a normal disaster.
Didn't get tonight's bet posted in time, so won't count it. Thinking about San Fran tomorrow but really hate laying a TD or more on the road.
Here's hoping for better days ahead.
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Ugh; Bears 2nd half play kept this day from being an epic disaster, so instead it was just a normal disaster.
Didn't get tonight's bet posted in time, so won't count it. Thinking about San Fran tomorrow but really hate laying a TD or more on the road.
Here's hoping for better days ahead.
Have been going back and forth on the side tonight so thus far this is the only one I like"
Chiefs/Chargers Over 41 (1 unit) - These two combined for 57 points a little over a month ago and I see no reason why they can't get close to that again. At least one of these teams will bring their offense tonight, and that should get this one into the 40s.
Chiefs/Chargers Over 41 (1 unit) - These two combined for 57 points a little over a month ago and I see no reason why they can't get close to that again. At least one of these teams will bring their offense tonight, and that should get this one into the 40s.
Sides/Totals: 22-22-1 (-4.2 units)
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
There we go! Nice to win one of those that looked real bad for 3 quarters. I'm sure that at some point the Chiefs will get another win but for the life of me I couldn't tell you who it will come against. They have all kinds of problems.
Still looking at the card for this weekend but am definitely leaning towards the Bengals. Cinncy has burned me a number of times already this year though so I'm still not sure about it yet.
Teasers: 2-1 (+.3 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
There we go! Nice to win one of those that looked real bad for 3 quarters. I'm sure that at some point the Chiefs will get another win but for the life of me I couldn't tell you who it will come against. They have all kinds of problems.
Still looking at the card for this weekend but am definitely leaning towards the Bengals. Cinncy has burned me a number of times already this year though so I'm still not sure about it yet.
Philly +3 (1 unit) - Don't really like the Eagles, but just can't seem to bring myself to back a team with a D as terrible as New Orleans. Think Eagles resurrect their season tonight.
Parlay:
Eagles ML
Over 52.5
.5 units to win 1.5
Parlay:
Eagles ML
Over 52.5
.5 units to win 1.5
