Tucson

[Ian]

Well judging on past years I wish someone would lay me decent odd the winner will be priced 66/1+
Couple of early plays at VC which seem big (there could be a lot of these!)
Gossett 100, Tanaka 125

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Any logic to taking lower-seeded dogs in Rd 1 matchups? Would seem to look good on paper.

GL, boys.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple outrights
1 unit total E/W @ 365
Spike McRoy 125/1
Seems to gain confidence in weak fields Finished 6th here and 1st @ BC Open last year. Has no fear in final rd as he closed with 64-65 respectively in those events.Came into this event last year with no cuts made on year in 3 events. Wife Rica now has established Optomotrist business and not as much pressure on him.Worked hard for 1st time in off season and has paid off with 4 cuts in 6 events.While putting stats are misleading I would rate in top 10 in putting on tour

1 unit to place @ 5dimes
Bob Tway 8/1
Decents odds for one that has finished 6-3-6 last 3 events here.

 

[Clive]

Is Spike still playing, DTB? He's been suspended by one of the Aussie firms...so either he's withdrawn or your recommendation has them running scared?!

 

[Ian]

any news DTB? - at 125/1 he is certainly a decent bet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Still up @ 365--unless something odd happened I don't think he'd wd from this event. I wait about an 8am our time and call his wife and see if I can find out lowdown.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Tim Herron to win 18/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Hasn't played since the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, but is definitely the most in-form player in this field with top-3 finishes in his last starts. His 3rd place finish at Pebble Beach was particularly impressive given his tribulations the previous week when leading the Bob Hope Classic. He should be able to repeat his top-5 finish of 1998.

Harrison Frazar to win 33/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Frazar has had an extra week's rest than Herron, but was also on top of his game when he last played. He finished 3rd in the Phoenix Open when the Tour was last in Arizona and was in the top-10 the following week in the Bob Hope Classic. It was his third top-10 finish in the last four years in the Arizona events so his game does appear to be suited to desert courses and like Herron, his will also like the wide fairways at the Omni Tucson National.

Chad Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Boyle
Campbell has traditionally been a predominantly accurate player off the tee, but he has gained on average 17 yards on his drives this year to be in the top-20 in driving distance (last year he was 82nd). The improvement in his game is shown by the fact that at the same time he has also risen to be in the top-20 in driving accuracy and retains his place in the top-20 in the greens in regulation statistics. He had his best finish of the season last week (8th) and is playing well enough to challenge this week. He has finished in the top-15 in his last two Arizona events and this should be a repeat.

 

[Clive]

Frazar was 40 at Centrebet, did you nick it all Stan?

 

[Stanley]

Must have been someone else

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Nothing but answer machine? His site has event scoring ready,local paper has only Phillip Price and Stricker wd so far so assume he'll be playing. Here was interesting artice from local paper.
http://www.azstarnet.com/golf/30225TucOpnSetupTuesday2fbh.html

 

[Clive]

Perez and Crane w/d too?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Saw that elsewhere but can't confirm it Clive.

 

[milpalm]

Stankowski (66/1), Kaye (60/1) and Tway (60/1) are my main plays this week. One player I will keep an eye on is Ricky Barnes. He's the current US Amateur champion and apparently he hits it a mile. Saw some 300/1 earlier.

 

[bettingmad]

Harrison Frazar 33/1 Centrebet
In excellent form recently with his Phoenix 3rd followed by a Bob Hope 8th in much better company than this. Hopefully he has missed the last couple of events to practice here. Still seeking a maiden win which could well come this week. Had 5 top 10's last season and was 9th here in 2001.

Cliff Kresge 100/1 Paddy Power
Promising young player who had 2 wins on the Nationwide tour last year. Tucson 5th in 2001. Has not had many main tour starts but managed 3rd in the BC Open late last year. This season has had just 3 outings which included a Bob Hope top 20 67-65-67-68-73, hopefully he will have learnt from the mistakes he made in that final round.

 

[steved]

0.5 ew Campbell 33/1 (BDirect)..15th last year..hitting it further..
0.5 ew Waldorf 50/1 (Sky)..18th last year..10th last week, lower class field here..

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Chad Campbell to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ BetInternet [-120 @ Sirbet where ties push]
Opposing Baddeley yet again who has at least made his last two cuts, but failed to improve in any of his rounds last week and finished a lowly 55th last year. He missed the cut in his last event in Arizona. Siding with the outright selection who finished six shots ahead of him last year and in three of the last four events.

Tim Herron to beat Aaron Baddeley -118 @ Centrebet
Herron is justifiably a shorter price than Campbell in the outright markets and is the most in-form player in this event. Easy to follow Campbell with Herron in opposing Baddeley.

Kirk Triplett to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Five Dimes
Will complete the anti-Baddeley treble with Triplett. He finished the 2002 season with some very consistent finishes and has started 2003 in the same vein (14th, 16th and 28th), but with two missed cuts as well. In both those cases, it has been very poor 2nd rounds that have been to blame (83 at Spyglass Hill; 77 at Riviera) so he may be prone to throwing in the towel is he doesn't think he will make the cut this week, but both those courses were playing hard, fast and difficult in the wind. That will not be the case this week and there is every chance he will match the top-10 finishes he has secured on his last two visits to the Omni Tucson Resort.

Joe Durant to beat Marco Dawson -111 @ Centrebet
There is no doubting that Dawson is in a rich vein of form - three consecutive top-15 finishes - but his record in this event and in Arizona is woeful. He has made just one of his last six cuts in this event and two of his last eight cuts in Arizona. This is also his fifth straight event and some tailing-off of his form is expected. Siding with Durant who had been in very good form before Riviera, though those conditions will not be experienced this week. His course form is not great, but he did finish in the top-10 in the Phoenix Open a month ago.

Per-Ulrik Johansson to beat Thomas Levet -118 @ Expekt
Opposing Levet who has made only two cuts of four this season with a best finish of 57th. He has played this course once before (1994), but he missed the cut on that occasion and will struggle to avoid the same. Would not normally side with a player who is playing his seventh straight week, but he has made his last two cuts, has recent course experience and should only need to make the weekend to secure the win.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Just one 72 hole play
Trip -115 over Badds
Happen to catch this # when they 1st dropped it.

1558451 02/25/03 S 02/27/03 K.TRIPLETT (TOURN) -115 A.BADDELEY (TOURN) $57.50 $50.00

 

[lostinamerica]

I spent a good part of Sunday night capping both PGA Tour events, but it was not until late last night that I got back to looking at the Tucson event again. On Sunday night I was wondering how many mentions their might be in the forum of the players I was having no trouble liking to make some noise at this moment and/or on this course. No matter, and after last night and this morning I still think my best chances lie with sticking close to what I liked on Sunday.

OUTRIGHTS:
Robert Gamez(45/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ 5dimes
Paul Stankowski(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet 365
Cameron Beckman(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Dicky Pride(80/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

3 BALLS (1st Round):
Gamez(+138) over Flesch/Hnatiuk for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thought this was interesting quote to tuck away in files made by Badds yesterday.

"I hope it stays windy," Baddeley said. "Because if it stays wet, windy and cold, a lot of guys don't like it. I like it."

Was speaking with Kernohan who will not be playing Nationwide Tour this year as he has taken job as teaching pro here.He has played with Badds on occasion last year and for what its worth this is his anology of his game. Short game A ,midirons B, long irons and driver C at best.
Thought he is toughest on long wide open courses and weakest on short with narrow fairways and rough. Definately a fade on U.S. Open type setups.

 

[bettingmad]

Had to take a small interest in 120 Dean Wilson at betfair. Although his form on the move to the US this season is not good so far he has won lots in Japan. Currently in 8th place at -4 and has an early start today.