Wunderdog
NBA
Game: Denver at Detroit (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Nuggets high octane offense has now put up 305 points in their last two games. The 168 vs the Sonics was an NBA season high. We were on them in that game, a 52-point win, but we are fading them in a big way tonight. When the Nuggets score, they win, and usually cover, but when they don't they get buried. Don't think the Pistons haven't taken notice of this! Detroit takes defense personally, and when they step on the court with defense in mind, they just don't give it up. The Nuggets are averaging 109 ppg, but when they play on the road against teams in the top eight in the NBA in points allowed, they average a very pedestrian 95.7 ppg! That's a full 13+ point dropoff. The odds-makers say they don't reach 100 tonight, and that means they will be in trouble. The Nuggets are just 2-16 ATS when they don't reach the century mark. They have reached scored 100+ in 15 of 21 road games, or 71.4% of the time vs teams not in the top eight in points allowed. They have hit triple-figures in 3 of 10 games or 30% vs the top eight. Detroit is at the top of the NBA in points allowed. Just six of 32 teams have gotten to the century mark against the Pistons on their home floor this season. Denver over the last three years (six games), has never scored triple digits against the Pistons home or away, without the assistance of OT. Denver can't win when they don't score 100, and have gotten beaten up by some of the solid NBA teams on the road that play defense. They have already lost at San Antonio by 11, at NO by 24, at Boston by 26, at Houston by 28, and at Houston again by 14. Those are teams in the top five in the NBA. The Nuggets output in these games? 93.7 ppg! Detroit by double-digits.
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dallas -5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Lakers are all of a sudden at risk of losing three straight. We think they do, and don't keep it close. They've had a rough schedule since sitting on top of the Western Conference a few days ago. They had to face New Orleans, then Houston and now Dallas with Utah on deck! Without the services of Pau Gasol, this team just isn't nearly as good. We were all over Houston last game as our Game of the Month and the Lakers lost by 12 points. Without Gasol again here, facing a resurrgent Mavs team, we see a similar result. Even before Gasol went out, there were signs of problems for LA as tehy have now lost seven of their last ten games ATS. Dallas meanwhile has won five straight SU and ATS, blowing out all comers. They love playing at home where they are 29-4, and they will be "up" for this game. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS the past two seasons off two straight road losses. They are also 4-16 ATS in March games this season and last. Dallas is 9-0 ATS the past two seasons at home after covering the spread as a double-digit favorite. We have momentum going in two completely opposite directions here and we'll take the team on the up, which is Dallas.
Game: New Jersey at Chicago (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago -5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Nets have won back-to-back games vs. playoff teams in Cleveland and Utah. Now they are a 5.5 point underdog to the Bulls who have lost two in a row and four of their last five, allowing 109 per game over that stretch? Seems kinda funny, huh? Yes. We will embrace that strangeness and back the Bulls here. The fact remains that prior to their most recent couple of wins, the Nets lost six in a row both SU and ATS. In those six losses, they averaged just 84 ppg! They are just 11-21 SU and 12-19 ATS on the road this season, allowing 102 ppg. Chicago is playing with revenge here and NBA favorites revenging an upset road loss are a 65% ATS play if they have a losing record. The Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last fourteen games vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. New Jersey is 14-23 ATS this season ass an underdog and they are 3-13 ATS after covering two of their last three games. Bulls in a big win here.
Game: Boston at Houston (9:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 182.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Houston has now won 22 consecutive games and will face the NBA's best team, at least record-wise, tonight at home. It is about as close to a playoff game atmosphere as you'll ever find in an NBA regular season game. When you consider defense, it is reflective most noticeably in the play of Houston, Boston, San Antonio and Detroit. Houston has had two at home with San Antonio, and no one has gotten to even 90 points. Boston has had three games with Detroit and the highest points prodcued was 92, with no game reaching 180 total points scored. Houston also played San Antonio on the road, and the total points scored was 174. Now we have the ultimate two defenses, squaring off in nothing short of a playoff game. As a result, this game will be hard pressed to touch 180, and is likely to be played in the mid-80s to the winner. We like this to go UNDER as is, but the special nature of this one adds to the value, as we have a regular season line in a game with playoff intensity.
Game: Boston at Houston (9:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on First Half UNDER 90.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
For many of the same reasons, we like this high-intensity game to also go UNDER in the first half.
Game: Golden State at Sacramento (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 229 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Warriors are averaging 116 per game over their last five while allowing 106. Sacramento scores 105 per game at home while allowing 102. This is why this total is set at 229. Yes, high, but not high enough given the styles and recent play of these two teams. Sacramento is 31-24 OVER the past two seasons vs. winning teams. They are 35-18 OVER during that span vs. teams that hoist up 18+ three pointers per game (the Warriors average 27 per contest). The Kings are also 41-28 the spast two seasons vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. In games that are expected to come down to the wire (line of +3 to -3), Golden State is 14-6 OVER this season. They are also 24-14 OVER after scoring 100+ in four straight games. This one's going to be a shootout of epic proportions.
MLB
Game: Oakland at Texas (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +102 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)
The A's have had a great spring thus far at 15-5. They have scored more runs than any other team in the Cactus League, and at the same time have given up the fewest. Justin Duchscherer continues to impress this spring with his 2.25 ERA in two appearances, and is penciled into the rotation to this point. The Rangers will send Luis Mendoza to the hill. Mendoza is trying to lock down a place in the starting rotation, but his spring performance is not aiding his case. Mendoza has pitched to a 12.15 ERA this spring, so we will ride the A's who have been great at the plate and on the hill and have what appears to be the pitching advantage here.
