LARRY NESS
Syracuse 8U
Jazz 7.5 U
indiancowboy
Magic PK/-1 FIRST HALF ATS (POD) (3 units)
Once again, the last time the Magic lost was against the Wizards by a point (the Pistons also lost to the Wiz recently at Washington) and the Magic came back home upset, faced up against a Sixers team who they pounded at home and easily covered as 6 point chalk. They led at half-time 35-58 getting off to a quick start. I expect the Magic to do the same here. Frankly, I expect the Magic to lead wire to wire and even if the Spurs do come back, it won't be until the second half as once again, I think the Magic come out fired up and they maintain their intensity, take a lead into half-time, the spurs come back a bit in the third and the Magic pull away in the 4th quarter behind their quarter. The Spurs remember were down 36-40 against the Mavs and are a team that typically starts off slow (although they didn't against the Bulls) and then begin chipping away on the road in the second half. I like the Magic here from the beginning to the end of this ballgame and thus have 2 plays with the first half being my POD similar to the Lakers first half against the Warriors the other day and the full game is an additional standard play.
Magic -1 Full Game ATS (3 units)
Keep in mind that the POD is on the MAGIC -1/PK FIRST HALF ONLY. However, I also have a play on the Magic -1 for the Game. They are both for 3 units a piece. This is the write-up for the Magic -1 for the game. Keep in mind the Magic come off a tough Eastern Conference loss to the Hawks and they will likely be fired up today from that loss. The last time the Magic lost was on the road to Washington by a point and they came back home to pound the Sixers and easily covered as 6 point chalk. The Magic also lost to this team by 28 points on the road and likely have that revenge in mind too. Thus, the Magic come off a loss, return home and have revenge against the Spurs and I like all the features and motivations for the cover here. The Spurs are 1-9 ATS as small road dogs and the Magic are 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites of late.
Arizona State -3.5
Florida is a sound team that comes off 2 big wins at home against San Diego State and Creighton, 2 teams between the top 50 and 100 who they have beat up on at home. Now, they face a team on the road who is in the top 40 and given Florida's track record on the road as they are 3-6 on the road and 0-3 against top 50 teams, this team does not have a good track record on the road against top 50 teams. Although they lost to Vandy by 3, Vandy has shown to be horrible of late given their shortcomings in the SEC and the NCAA tourney. Florida remember got pounded by top 100 Bama on neutral footing, lost by 5 and was down bigger to top 60 Kentucky on the road, they lost to top 50 Arkansas by 19 and top 40 Ohio State by double-digits. I'll take Arizona State here at home where they have defeated the likes of Stanford, Oregon and Xavier by sound margins. The Gators are young and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 ballgames after a win of 20 points or more and Arizona State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 ballgames.
Mavericks -11.5
Dallas beat this team 95-94 and of course the last time on the road, no Dirk for this game, I understand that there is no Dirk, but I also understand that when teams have their star player out, in the first game at home immediately after that star player goes out, they rally around and look to have a big home win. Thus, I expect the Mavs to win and win big here hoping to run up the score - exactly what the Rockets did in the first few games without Yao when they heard about that injury. I think the Mavs win big here. The Mavs are 6-0 ATS when playing teams with 40% winning % at home and the Clippers are 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a 60% winning %.
