David Malinsky
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 24 2008 10:10PM
6* CHICAGO/LOS ANGELES Under
The oddsmakers are going to have difficulty with the White Sox offense this summer, and we are going to be able to take full advantage. Give them either a ballpark and wind setting, or an opposing pitching staff, that is conducive to home runs, and they will mash with the best of them - they are #3 in the Major League?s in home runs. In the month of June they have reached double figures five times already. But what happens when the setting changes? They become an average offense, at best, yet one that will be priced too high because of the impact those home run derby games have in their overall statistics. We already have some evidence of that - they have played 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 road games, and 22-9 in the last 31. It is anything but home run derby against Derek Lowe tonight.
Lowe has been a rhythm pitcher throughout his career, and he is absolutely ?on? right now. It has been a 1.96 over his last six starts, a span in which he has allowed only four home runs over 41.1 innings, and from this mound it has only been four in 46.1 for the full season. When his sinker is working it takes a lot of hits to get runners around the bases, and that is not the Chicago way at all. If anything, the White Sox have a direct weakness in this matchup - because they are so slow afoot, they are also #3 in the Major?s at grounding into double plays. And in a National League park they also will likely lose the bat of Jim Thome, taking away another potential weapon. Meanwhile Lowe has all key bullpen arms rested and ready behind him, and the Dodger bullpen has been outstanding in this Stadium this season, with great current form (Joe Beimel has not been scored on in nine straight appearances; eight straight for Jonathan Broxton; and Takashi Saito has one blown save in two months) .
The home team will also struggle to score tonight, which is what sets this Total up so well at the extreme value being offered. Like Lowe, Mark Buehrle is a rhythm guy, and when he is on he can frustrate hitters that lack experience against him. Few pitchers work the strike zone better, and there may not be anyone that works as quickly, which gets hitters offering at pitches on the edge of the zone that turn into easy contact outs. His 4-6/4.28 for the full season brings us value here, but note that after a slow start he has been the Buerhle of old - in working to a 1.50 over his last three starts he has worked eight full innings each time, at a masterful count of 12.7 pitches per inning in that span. He has worked to a sparkling 2-0/1.84 in a pair of Inter-League games so far, and 4-1/2.03 the past two seasons, an example of his ability to maneuver vs. hitters that lack experience against him, and Juan Pierre and Jeff Kent will the the only Dodgers that have ever faced him, with those two only combining for 12 career at-bats. And much like Lowe, Buehrle has a solid bullpen rested and ready behind him keyed by Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks, which gives us a solid guarantee against late-inning shenanigans.
(NOTE: Although the 8's have been disappearing from the marketplace on this one it is still a 6* at 7.5, particularly with some low-vig options out there at that price/)
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 24 2008 10:05PM
4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
In our current ?Thinking Outside the Box? column we used the most unique current runs by a pair of Washington pitchers to show a little of how the geometric angles, and subsequent performance pendulums of baseball, do not always play to merit. And the gist was that as we get to this time of the season, and the markets begin to attach a full weight on the 2008 statistics, there can be some outstanding value found when we can fade some of those perceptions. The major move to the Phillies this morning set us up to do just that with Joe Blanton.
Blanton has been one of the more dependable starters in the major?s the past three seasons, working to a 42-34/4.08 tune while eating 625.2 innings. But for tonight the pitching forms show a 3-10/4.81 count for the season to date. So the question becomes - is there really an issue with Blanton anywhere? We do not believe so.
In going from 42-34 to 3-10, the increase in Blanton?s ERA is not all that major, and note that the WHIP increase is even smaller - from 1.36 in 2005-07 to 1.42 this season. In other words his pitching has not fallen off all that much, but he has absolutely not been in the right place at the right time in terms of results, particularly at home. The past three seasons it has been a 22-15/3.48 from this mound, but with the ERA only rising to 3.91, his W/L count this season is 1-7. It has been more bad luck than bad pitching, and note that the 3.91 should be even better than it is - eight of his 10 starts at McAfee Coliseum have come against teams that currently sport winning records. Only three AL teams are more than 10 games over .500 right now, and those opponents accounted for four of the 10 starts. So Blanton?s bottom line? A most under-valued commodity, and one that will offer value to us while the market shows disrespect.
Tonight is the ideal time to step in. The Phillies have somehow been bet into this range despite taking to the road on an 0-5 slide, a span in which the offense produced only nine runs. They have been able to mash the ball in warm weather, rating #2 in the Major?s in home runs, but can be vulnerable on a cool night in Oakland where the ball does not carry well. They also face the defensive issues of dealing with some tricky wind in a park in which they lack experience, and we anticipate matchup problems for Jamie Moyer against one of the most patient offenses in the league - the patient A?s (3rd in the A.L. in walks) will not put his borderline pitches into play, and will make him throw over the white part of the plate. When he does that, his stuff is nothing but ordinary.
Twins (RL) at Padres (RL) Jun 24 2008 10:05PM
3* MINNESOTA Run Line over SAN DIEGO
The last time that Kevin Slowey took the mound for Minnesota, we backed him with a 4* play against Washington, and we started the analysis this way - When the betting markets look at Kevin Slowey, they see a 3-6/4.70 in the pitching forms that causes a sneer, and leads to disrespect. And that works to our advantage in a major way here, in a game in which some fundamental handicapping logic comes into play. Tonight we have more of the same.
Slowey still only sports a 4-6/4.37 for the season, but his peripherals are solid in some particular key areas for tonight?s matchup - his WHIP of 1.18 is almost an even match for the 1.15 of Jake Peavy, and his command of the strike zone is outstanding - since becoming a full-time member of the Minnesota starting rotation last September, he has rolled up a ratio of 61 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed. He has only had one issue - the gopher ball, but at Petco Park that becomes only a minor nuisance, instead of a significant weakness. We can count on Slowey to once again do what he does best, which is throwing strikes and forcing the opponents to win with their bats, and the Padres have a difficult time making that happen. With a quality bullpen bringing all arms rested and ready behind him, it means that the home team is hard-pressed to score the entire way in this one.
Jake Peavy is drastically over-priced here, a solid favorite despite pitching for the weaker team. that line sets us up with the outstanding value that we get on the Run Line here - in a game in which runs are going to be difficult to come by, the +1.5 is worth far more than what the marketplace is charging. San Diego is just 21-56 as -1.5 this season, including 12-29 at home, and the Padres will struggle to merely win this game, much less get any kind of a margin.