Tuesday Service Plays 6/24/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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Scott Ferrall (BASEBALL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY)
TEXAS +105 over Houston--I just think the Rangers are better than the Astros-flat out ! I think they'll score more runs and have more big hits in this one at Minute Maid
Baltimore +115 over Chicago Cubs--I'm hoping the Cubs have a let down facing the Orioles and get burned by Guthrie. Chciago has been dominant at Wrigley, but they have to cool off sometime !
Colorado +135 over Kansas City--De La Rosa knocks off the Royals and Greinke at Kaufmann Stadium. The line just looks too automatic for KC, even though they've been on fire lately. I like the pay out if the Rockies can do it !
SAN DIEGO -160 over Minnesota--Peavy is just too tough and he'll cool off those hot Twin bats ( 6 straight wins)
Philly (even odds) over Oakland--I can't take Blanton over Moyer, even with as bad as the Phils have looked lately. Blanton just has no luck and is 3-10 on the year.
DODGERS -125 over White Sox--The Sox aren't a good road team (6 under .500) and they just got beat up by the Cubs over the weekend and had to travel out to LA. LOWE moves to .500 with the win at the Revine. UNDER 8 RUNS
TEXAS +105 over Houston--I just think the Rangers are better than the Astros-flat out ! I think they'll score more runs and have more big hits in this one at Minute Maid
Baltimore +115 over Chicago Cubs--I'm hoping the Cubs have a let down facing the Orioles and get burned by Guthrie. Chciago has been dominant at Wrigley, but they have to cool off sometime !
Colorado +135 over Kansas City--De La Rosa knocks off the Royals and Greinke at Kaufmann Stadium. The line just looks too automatic for KC, even though they've been on fire lately. I like the pay out if the Rockies can do it !
SAN DIEGO -160 over Minnesota--Peavy is just too tough and he'll cool off those hot Twin bats ( 6 straight wins)
Philly (even odds) over Oakland--I can't take Blanton over Moyer, even with as bad as the Phils have looked lately. Blanton just has no luck and is 3-10 on the year.
DODGERS -125 over White Sox--The Sox aren't a good road team (6 under .500) and they just got beat up by the Cubs over the weekend and had to travel out to LA. LOWE moves to .500 with the win at the Revine. UNDER 8 RUNS
ER Sports
Tuesday Daily Card: $49
Tuesday's Daily Card from Erin Rynning includes his MLB Playmaker in Interleague action and a bonus MLB Total Report, both together for just $49. This must produce a NET Profit or ER's next daily card is yours at no additional cost.
Pittsburgh +140
San Diego Under 7 -105
Tuesday Daily Card: $49
Tuesday's Daily Card from Erin Rynning includes his MLB Playmaker in Interleague action and a bonus MLB Total Report, both together for just $49. This must produce a NET Profit or ER's next daily card is yours at no additional cost.
Pittsburgh +140
San Diego Under 7 -105
Experts
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The Boys are Back in Town and kicking some Bookie Ass! We have the FIVE BEST HANDICAPPERS in the Nation making up our team! Don't ask who they are because they will remain anonymous! Today The Boys have isolated another ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL WINNER! Get this winner right now for ONLY $25 and you PAY ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 26-9 Baseball run this year! 6/24/2008
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Buehrle +110 10:10 EST
Computer Crushers
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are now 38-12 this season in baseball for PLUS $2337 playing just $100 per game! We were 59-28 in Baseball last year as we are very selective with our baseball selections as you may see four or five plays a week from us. Today we have VERY STRONG 5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER that you can get for just $25 and you will win this game or you will not be charged! 6/24/2008
VERY STRONG 5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Cleveland w/Laffey -165 7:05 EST
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The Boys are Back in Town and kicking some Bookie Ass! We have the FIVE BEST HANDICAPPERS in the Nation making up our team! Don't ask who they are because they will remain anonymous! Today The Boys have isolated another ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL WINNER! Get this winner right now for ONLY $25 and you PAY ONLY AFTER YOU WIN!! 26-9 Baseball run this year! 6/24/2008
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Buehrle +110 10:10 EST
Computer Crushers
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are now 38-12 this season in baseball for PLUS $2337 playing just $100 per game! We were 59-28 in Baseball last year as we are very selective with our baseball selections as you may see four or five plays a week from us. Today we have VERY STRONG 5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER that you can get for just $25 and you will win this game or you will not be charged! 6/24/2008
VERY STRONG 5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Cleveland w/Laffey -165 7:05 EST
Larry Ness
15* IL Total GOW (8 in a row?) $35.00
Larry's easy 4-1 win with Milwaukee last night gave him SEVEN consecutive winning MLB reports (since Saturday). He's 18-8 with all games (includng member plays) the L7 days and his GOW plays are 39-28 Y-T-D. Looking for a total which will be 'over' by the mid-innings? Then look no further than Larry's 15* IL Total of the Week!
Reds/BlueJays OVER
15* IL Total GOW (8 in a row?) $35.00
Larry's easy 4-1 win with Milwaukee last night gave him SEVEN consecutive winning MLB reports (since Saturday). He's 18-8 with all games (includng member plays) the L7 days and his GOW plays are 39-28 Y-T-D. Looking for a total which will be 'over' by the mid-innings? Then look no further than Larry's 15* IL Total of the Week!
Reds/BlueJays OVER
ROBERT FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take #968 New York Mets (-1.5, +115) over Seattle (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #968 New York Mets (-175) over Seattle (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Who knows what Oliver Perez will show up. But one thing I do know is that R.A. Dickey is awful. The knuckleballer has started three games this year and the Mariners have lost all three. Not only that, but he has an ERA of 13.90 in those three starts and an ERA of 13.50 in his last three outings. He started last Wednesday, threw in relief on Saturday, and now is starting on Tuesday. That?s a pretty unorthodox throwing schedule and I think it will have an effect. Awful Olly has been pretty bad. But the Mets are 11-2 following a game in which they gave up five runs or less and are 5-0 following a loss, both of which shows that they bounce back.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-165) over Arizona (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-1.5, +115) over Arizona (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
The D-Backs are 1-5 in Doug Davis? last six road starts and 7-17 on the road overall. The Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 against left-handed pitching, including 8-1 against southpaws at home.
2-Unit Play. Take #960 Detroit (-150) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Stay hot Tigers. Detroit has started playing much better ball and they are catching St. Louis in a perfect letdown spot after the Cards took two of three from Boston. This play fits my interleague system and Braden Looper has lost five straight IL starts. Kenny Rogers at home is also an automatic play. The Tigers are 21-5 in his home starts and 29-9 as a favorite. The Tigers have won four straight against the Cards and I think they are set for an ambush tonight.
1-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 7.0 Minnesota at San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #975 Minnesota (+150) over San Diego (10 pm., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #975 Minnesota (+1.5, -155) over San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
We're going to stay with the hot team here over the home team. Jake Peavy may or may not be recovered from his arm issues. He got slapped around in New York last week and he's actually lost six of his past eight starts. He is also just 8-7 in his career in interleague play. And here's something to watch out for and a reason why I think we're going to see some higher scoring games: San Diego is the worst team in the league in people stealing against them. The Twins love to run and I think if any of their speed gets on base they're going to terrorize the Dads.
1-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (+125) over Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Playing a number movement here and also banking on the Cubs losing one of their next three home games. They've won 14 straight and you have to know when to start fading them at home. Jeremy Guthrie can dominate lineups and has shown that June is his month. Guthrie is 6-0 on five days' rest and the Orioles are 7-1 following an off day. Sean Gallagher has lost five of six home starts and after an emotional Crosstown Series over the weekend we may catch the Cubs in a letdown spot here.
1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (+140) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
The Royals are hot and Jorge de la Rosa is awful. But we're playing against a sweep in this series. Maybe George will have a gem in him against his former team. Regardless, I think the Rockies can slug their way to one today.
1-Unit Play. Take Houston (-120) over Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Taking two of three against Tampa Bay, in Tropicana, is nothing to gloss over. Houston went through it's rough period of pathetic play. But when their sticks are hot they are as dangerous as anyone. Brian Moehler just puts his team in a position to win every time he's on the mound. I think he does so again today. The Astros hammer lefties and Eric Hurley isn't exactly an ace. Look for Houston to take the first in this series before dropping the next two.
2-Unit Play. Take #968 New York Mets (-1.5, +115) over Seattle (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #968 New York Mets (-175) over Seattle (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Who knows what Oliver Perez will show up. But one thing I do know is that R.A. Dickey is awful. The knuckleballer has started three games this year and the Mariners have lost all three. Not only that, but he has an ERA of 13.90 in those three starts and an ERA of 13.50 in his last three outings. He started last Wednesday, threw in relief on Saturday, and now is starting on Tuesday. That?s a pretty unorthodox throwing schedule and I think it will have an effect. Awful Olly has been pretty bad. But the Mets are 11-2 following a game in which they gave up five runs or less and are 5-0 following a loss, both of which shows that they bounce back.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-165) over Arizona (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-1.5, +115) over Arizona (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
The D-Backs are 1-5 in Doug Davis? last six road starts and 7-17 on the road overall. The Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 against left-handed pitching, including 8-1 against southpaws at home.
2-Unit Play. Take #960 Detroit (-150) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Stay hot Tigers. Detroit has started playing much better ball and they are catching St. Louis in a perfect letdown spot after the Cards took two of three from Boston. This play fits my interleague system and Braden Looper has lost five straight IL starts. Kenny Rogers at home is also an automatic play. The Tigers are 21-5 in his home starts and 29-9 as a favorite. The Tigers have won four straight against the Cards and I think they are set for an ambush tonight.
1-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 7.0 Minnesota at San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #975 Minnesota (+150) over San Diego (10 pm., Tuesday, June 24)
1-Unit Play. Take #975 Minnesota (+1.5, -155) over San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
We're going to stay with the hot team here over the home team. Jake Peavy may or may not be recovered from his arm issues. He got slapped around in New York last week and he's actually lost six of his past eight starts. He is also just 8-7 in his career in interleague play. And here's something to watch out for and a reason why I think we're going to see some higher scoring games: San Diego is the worst team in the league in people stealing against them. The Twins love to run and I think if any of their speed gets on base they're going to terrorize the Dads.
1-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (+125) over Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Playing a number movement here and also banking on the Cubs losing one of their next three home games. They've won 14 straight and you have to know when to start fading them at home. Jeremy Guthrie can dominate lineups and has shown that June is his month. Guthrie is 6-0 on five days' rest and the Orioles are 7-1 following an off day. Sean Gallagher has lost five of six home starts and after an emotional Crosstown Series over the weekend we may catch the Cubs in a letdown spot here.
1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (+140) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
The Royals are hot and Jorge de la Rosa is awful. But we're playing against a sweep in this series. Maybe George will have a gem in him against his former team. Regardless, I think the Rockies can slug their way to one today.
1-Unit Play. Take Houston (-120) over Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, June 24)
Taking two of three against Tampa Bay, in Tropicana, is nothing to gloss over. Houston went through it's rough period of pathetic play. But when their sticks are hot they are as dangerous as anyone. Brian Moehler just puts his team in a position to win every time he's on the mound. I think he does so again today. The Astros hammer lefties and Eric Hurley isn't exactly an ace. Look for Houston to take the first in this series before dropping the next two.
Wayne Root
Chairman- Rockies
Millionaire- Orioles
Insiders Circle- Dodgers
Perfect Play- Phillies
Chairman- Rockies
Millionaire- Orioles
Insiders Circle- Dodgers
Perfect Play- Phillies
Ben Burns
*BIG GAME ALERT** IL Pitching Mismatch GOY! $40.00
Earlier this month (on 6/18) Ben Burns released his Interleague "Blowout" GOY, which resulted in an 11-1 winner. Burns isn't expecting such a lopsided result with his 2008 Interleague "Pitching Mismatch" GOY. However, he IS fully expecting the end result to be the same. This "Big Game Expert" is currently 10-3 his L13 GOY releases!
San Diego Padres
*BIG GAME ALERT** IL Pitching Mismatch GOY! $40.00
Earlier this month (on 6/18) Ben Burns released his Interleague "Blowout" GOY, which resulted in an 11-1 winner. Burns isn't expecting such a lopsided result with his 2008 Interleague "Pitching Mismatch" GOY. However, he IS fully expecting the end result to be the same. This "Big Game Expert" is currently 10-3 his L13 GOY releases!
San Diego Padres
EZ WINNERS
MLB
5 STAR: (977) PHILADELPHIA (+$107) over Oakland
(Listing Moyer only)
(Risking $500 to win $535)
9:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (959) ST. LOUIS (+$144) over Detroit
(Listing Looper only)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (966) WASHINGTON (+$131) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $131)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (979) CHICAGO (+$107) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Buehrle only)
(Risking $100 to win $107)
9:10PM Central Time
MLB
5 STAR: (977) PHILADELPHIA (+$107) over Oakland
(Listing Moyer only)
(Risking $500 to win $535)
9:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (959) ST. LOUIS (+$144) over Detroit
(Listing Looper only)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (966) WASHINGTON (+$131) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $131)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (979) CHICAGO (+$107) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Buehrle only)
(Risking $100 to win $107)
9:10PM Central Time
Matt Fargo
*MLB BEST BETS** Double Dog Twin Pack $35.00
Fargo nailed his lone Premium Top Play on Monday and it was a big one with Seattle +150! Fargo has won 5 of his last 8 Double Dog Twin Packs after a Sunday split (Angels +155) so now is the time to grab the two best dogs on the card! A split produces a profit so bring home some cash as we go for the SWEEP which you can not miss!
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
*MLB BEST BETS** Double Dog Twin Pack $35.00
Fargo nailed his lone Premium Top Play on Monday and it was a big one with Seattle +150! Fargo has won 5 of his last 8 Double Dog Twin Packs after a Sunday split (Angels +155) so now is the time to grab the two best dogs on the card! A split produces a profit so bring home some cash as we go for the SWEEP which you can not miss!
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Wunderdog
5 Units - Minnesota
4 Units - Texas
3 Units - Chicago White Sox
3 Units - St Louis @ Detroit OVER 9
5 Units - Minnesota
4 Units - Texas
3 Units - Chicago White Sox
3 Units - St Louis @ Detroit OVER 9
Moneylockoftheday
Digger's Pick
Rockies/royals Over 8.5 Runs
Junior's Pick
Red Sox Over Diamondbacks -165
Digger's Pick
Rockies/royals Over 8.5 Runs
Junior's Pick
Red Sox Over Diamondbacks -165
Sebastian
300 White Sox
50 Houston
50 Yankees -1.5
100 Under Cleveland (Vegas Steam)
5 Under Tampa Bay (Comp)
300 White Sox
50 Houston
50 Yankees -1.5
100 Under Cleveland (Vegas Steam)
5 Under Tampa Bay (Comp)
David Malinsky
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 24 2008 10:10PM
6* CHICAGO/LOS ANGELES Under
The oddsmakers are going to have difficulty with the White Sox offense this summer, and we are going to be able to take full advantage. Give them either a ballpark and wind setting, or an opposing pitching staff, that is conducive to home runs, and they will mash with the best of them - they are #3 in the Major League?s in home runs. In the month of June they have reached double figures five times already. But what happens when the setting changes? They become an average offense, at best, yet one that will be priced too high because of the impact those home run derby games have in their overall statistics. We already have some evidence of that - they have played 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 road games, and 22-9 in the last 31. It is anything but home run derby against Derek Lowe tonight.
Lowe has been a rhythm pitcher throughout his career, and he is absolutely ?on? right now. It has been a 1.96 over his last six starts, a span in which he has allowed only four home runs over 41.1 innings, and from this mound it has only been four in 46.1 for the full season. When his sinker is working it takes a lot of hits to get runners around the bases, and that is not the Chicago way at all. If anything, the White Sox have a direct weakness in this matchup - because they are so slow afoot, they are also #3 in the Major?s at grounding into double plays. And in a National League park they also will likely lose the bat of Jim Thome, taking away another potential weapon. Meanwhile Lowe has all key bullpen arms rested and ready behind him, and the Dodger bullpen has been outstanding in this Stadium this season, with great current form (Joe Beimel has not been scored on in nine straight appearances; eight straight for Jonathan Broxton; and Takashi Saito has one blown save in two months) .
The home team will also struggle to score tonight, which is what sets this Total up so well at the extreme value being offered. Like Lowe, Mark Buehrle is a rhythm guy, and when he is on he can frustrate hitters that lack experience against him. Few pitchers work the strike zone better, and there may not be anyone that works as quickly, which gets hitters offering at pitches on the edge of the zone that turn into easy contact outs. His 4-6/4.28 for the full season brings us value here, but note that after a slow start he has been the Buerhle of old - in working to a 1.50 over his last three starts he has worked eight full innings each time, at a masterful count of 12.7 pitches per inning in that span. He has worked to a sparkling 2-0/1.84 in a pair of Inter-League games so far, and 4-1/2.03 the past two seasons, an example of his ability to maneuver vs. hitters that lack experience against him, and Juan Pierre and Jeff Kent will the the only Dodgers that have ever faced him, with those two only combining for 12 career at-bats. And much like Lowe, Buehrle has a solid bullpen rested and ready behind him keyed by Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks, which gives us a solid guarantee against late-inning shenanigans.
(NOTE: Although the 8's have been disappearing from the marketplace on this one it is still a 6* at 7.5, particularly with some low-vig options out there at that price/)
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 24 2008 10:05PM
4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
In our current ?Thinking Outside the Box? column we used the most unique current runs by a pair of Washington pitchers to show a little of how the geometric angles, and subsequent performance pendulums of baseball, do not always play to merit. And the gist was that as we get to this time of the season, and the markets begin to attach a full weight on the 2008 statistics, there can be some outstanding value found when we can fade some of those perceptions. The major move to the Phillies this morning set us up to do just that with Joe Blanton.
Blanton has been one of the more dependable starters in the major?s the past three seasons, working to a 42-34/4.08 tune while eating 625.2 innings. But for tonight the pitching forms show a 3-10/4.81 count for the season to date. So the question becomes - is there really an issue with Blanton anywhere? We do not believe so.
In going from 42-34 to 3-10, the increase in Blanton?s ERA is not all that major, and note that the WHIP increase is even smaller - from 1.36 in 2005-07 to 1.42 this season. In other words his pitching has not fallen off all that much, but he has absolutely not been in the right place at the right time in terms of results, particularly at home. The past three seasons it has been a 22-15/3.48 from this mound, but with the ERA only rising to 3.91, his W/L count this season is 1-7. It has been more bad luck than bad pitching, and note that the 3.91 should be even better than it is - eight of his 10 starts at McAfee Coliseum have come against teams that currently sport winning records. Only three AL teams are more than 10 games over .500 right now, and those opponents accounted for four of the 10 starts. So Blanton?s bottom line? A most under-valued commodity, and one that will offer value to us while the market shows disrespect.
Tonight is the ideal time to step in. The Phillies have somehow been bet into this range despite taking to the road on an 0-5 slide, a span in which the offense produced only nine runs. They have been able to mash the ball in warm weather, rating #2 in the Major?s in home runs, but can be vulnerable on a cool night in Oakland where the ball does not carry well. They also face the defensive issues of dealing with some tricky wind in a park in which they lack experience, and we anticipate matchup problems for Jamie Moyer against one of the most patient offenses in the league - the patient A?s (3rd in the A.L. in walks) will not put his borderline pitches into play, and will make him throw over the white part of the plate. When he does that, his stuff is nothing but ordinary.
Twins (RL) at Padres (RL) Jun 24 2008 10:05PM
3* MINNESOTA Run Line over SAN DIEGO
The last time that Kevin Slowey took the mound for Minnesota, we backed him with a 4* play against Washington, and we started the analysis this way - When the betting markets look at Kevin Slowey, they see a 3-6/4.70 in the pitching forms that causes a sneer, and leads to disrespect. And that works to our advantage in a major way here, in a game in which some fundamental handicapping logic comes into play. Tonight we have more of the same.
Slowey still only sports a 4-6/4.37 for the season, but his peripherals are solid in some particular key areas for tonight?s matchup - his WHIP of 1.18 is almost an even match for the 1.15 of Jake Peavy, and his command of the strike zone is outstanding - since becoming a full-time member of the Minnesota starting rotation last September, he has rolled up a ratio of 61 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed. He has only had one issue - the gopher ball, but at Petco Park that becomes only a minor nuisance, instead of a significant weakness. We can count on Slowey to once again do what he does best, which is throwing strikes and forcing the opponents to win with their bats, and the Padres have a difficult time making that happen. With a quality bullpen bringing all arms rested and ready behind him, it means that the home team is hard-pressed to score the entire way in this one.
Jake Peavy is drastically over-priced here, a solid favorite despite pitching for the weaker team. that line sets us up with the outstanding value that we get on the Run Line here - in a game in which runs are going to be difficult to come by, the +1.5 is worth far more than what the marketplace is charging. San Diego is just 21-56 as -1.5 this season, including 12-29 at home, and the Padres will struggle to merely win this game, much less get any kind of a margin.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 24 2008 10:10PM
6* CHICAGO/LOS ANGELES Under
The oddsmakers are going to have difficulty with the White Sox offense this summer, and we are going to be able to take full advantage. Give them either a ballpark and wind setting, or an opposing pitching staff, that is conducive to home runs, and they will mash with the best of them - they are #3 in the Major League?s in home runs. In the month of June they have reached double figures five times already. But what happens when the setting changes? They become an average offense, at best, yet one that will be priced too high because of the impact those home run derby games have in their overall statistics. We already have some evidence of that - they have played 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 road games, and 22-9 in the last 31. It is anything but home run derby against Derek Lowe tonight.
Lowe has been a rhythm pitcher throughout his career, and he is absolutely ?on? right now. It has been a 1.96 over his last six starts, a span in which he has allowed only four home runs over 41.1 innings, and from this mound it has only been four in 46.1 for the full season. When his sinker is working it takes a lot of hits to get runners around the bases, and that is not the Chicago way at all. If anything, the White Sox have a direct weakness in this matchup - because they are so slow afoot, they are also #3 in the Major?s at grounding into double plays. And in a National League park they also will likely lose the bat of Jim Thome, taking away another potential weapon. Meanwhile Lowe has all key bullpen arms rested and ready behind him, and the Dodger bullpen has been outstanding in this Stadium this season, with great current form (Joe Beimel has not been scored on in nine straight appearances; eight straight for Jonathan Broxton; and Takashi Saito has one blown save in two months) .
The home team will also struggle to score tonight, which is what sets this Total up so well at the extreme value being offered. Like Lowe, Mark Buehrle is a rhythm guy, and when he is on he can frustrate hitters that lack experience against him. Few pitchers work the strike zone better, and there may not be anyone that works as quickly, which gets hitters offering at pitches on the edge of the zone that turn into easy contact outs. His 4-6/4.28 for the full season brings us value here, but note that after a slow start he has been the Buerhle of old - in working to a 1.50 over his last three starts he has worked eight full innings each time, at a masterful count of 12.7 pitches per inning in that span. He has worked to a sparkling 2-0/1.84 in a pair of Inter-League games so far, and 4-1/2.03 the past two seasons, an example of his ability to maneuver vs. hitters that lack experience against him, and Juan Pierre and Jeff Kent will the the only Dodgers that have ever faced him, with those two only combining for 12 career at-bats. And much like Lowe, Buehrle has a solid bullpen rested and ready behind him keyed by Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks, which gives us a solid guarantee against late-inning shenanigans.
(NOTE: Although the 8's have been disappearing from the marketplace on this one it is still a 6* at 7.5, particularly with some low-vig options out there at that price/)
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 24 2008 10:05PM
4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
In our current ?Thinking Outside the Box? column we used the most unique current runs by a pair of Washington pitchers to show a little of how the geometric angles, and subsequent performance pendulums of baseball, do not always play to merit. And the gist was that as we get to this time of the season, and the markets begin to attach a full weight on the 2008 statistics, there can be some outstanding value found when we can fade some of those perceptions. The major move to the Phillies this morning set us up to do just that with Joe Blanton.
Blanton has been one of the more dependable starters in the major?s the past three seasons, working to a 42-34/4.08 tune while eating 625.2 innings. But for tonight the pitching forms show a 3-10/4.81 count for the season to date. So the question becomes - is there really an issue with Blanton anywhere? We do not believe so.
In going from 42-34 to 3-10, the increase in Blanton?s ERA is not all that major, and note that the WHIP increase is even smaller - from 1.36 in 2005-07 to 1.42 this season. In other words his pitching has not fallen off all that much, but he has absolutely not been in the right place at the right time in terms of results, particularly at home. The past three seasons it has been a 22-15/3.48 from this mound, but with the ERA only rising to 3.91, his W/L count this season is 1-7. It has been more bad luck than bad pitching, and note that the 3.91 should be even better than it is - eight of his 10 starts at McAfee Coliseum have come against teams that currently sport winning records. Only three AL teams are more than 10 games over .500 right now, and those opponents accounted for four of the 10 starts. So Blanton?s bottom line? A most under-valued commodity, and one that will offer value to us while the market shows disrespect.
Tonight is the ideal time to step in. The Phillies have somehow been bet into this range despite taking to the road on an 0-5 slide, a span in which the offense produced only nine runs. They have been able to mash the ball in warm weather, rating #2 in the Major?s in home runs, but can be vulnerable on a cool night in Oakland where the ball does not carry well. They also face the defensive issues of dealing with some tricky wind in a park in which they lack experience, and we anticipate matchup problems for Jamie Moyer against one of the most patient offenses in the league - the patient A?s (3rd in the A.L. in walks) will not put his borderline pitches into play, and will make him throw over the white part of the plate. When he does that, his stuff is nothing but ordinary.
Twins (RL) at Padres (RL) Jun 24 2008 10:05PM
3* MINNESOTA Run Line over SAN DIEGO
The last time that Kevin Slowey took the mound for Minnesota, we backed him with a 4* play against Washington, and we started the analysis this way - When the betting markets look at Kevin Slowey, they see a 3-6/4.70 in the pitching forms that causes a sneer, and leads to disrespect. And that works to our advantage in a major way here, in a game in which some fundamental handicapping logic comes into play. Tonight we have more of the same.
Slowey still only sports a 4-6/4.37 for the season, but his peripherals are solid in some particular key areas for tonight?s matchup - his WHIP of 1.18 is almost an even match for the 1.15 of Jake Peavy, and his command of the strike zone is outstanding - since becoming a full-time member of the Minnesota starting rotation last September, he has rolled up a ratio of 61 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed. He has only had one issue - the gopher ball, but at Petco Park that becomes only a minor nuisance, instead of a significant weakness. We can count on Slowey to once again do what he does best, which is throwing strikes and forcing the opponents to win with their bats, and the Padres have a difficult time making that happen. With a quality bullpen bringing all arms rested and ready behind him, it means that the home team is hard-pressed to score the entire way in this one.
Jake Peavy is drastically over-priced here, a solid favorite despite pitching for the weaker team. that line sets us up with the outstanding value that we get on the Run Line here - in a game in which runs are going to be difficult to come by, the +1.5 is worth far more than what the marketplace is charging. San Diego is just 21-56 as -1.5 this season, including 12-29 at home, and the Padres will struggle to merely win this game, much less get any kind of a margin.
Steam On-Line
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We were 60-32 last year in baseball and as you can tell be our record we are very selective in baseball producing high percentage winners! Today we are releasing another 5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER! You can get this guaranteed winner today for just $25 and you will be charged only after you win! We are now on an 37-13 run since May 2, 2008!! 6/24/2008
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
LA Angels w/Garland -141 7:10 EST
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We were 60-32 last year in baseball and as you can tell be our record we are very selective in baseball producing high percentage winners! Today we are releasing another 5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER! You can get this guaranteed winner today for just $25 and you will be charged only after you win! We are now on an 37-13 run since May 2, 2008!! 6/24/2008
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
LA Angels w/Garland -141 7:10 EST
Vegas Runner
MLB RunLine Triple-Dime Bet
953 SFG 1.5 (-140) Sportsbetting.com vs 954 CLE
Analysis:
*** 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY ***
SF GIANTS +1.5 (RL) -140...as much as I wanted to make this a ML wager...there really is too much value on the RL at this price to pass up...VR
*** 3* WNBA BEST BET of the DAY ***
UNDER 145 SEA/LA (3*)
MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
952 ATL (-136) SportBet vs 951 MIL
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER **
MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
955 NYY (-150) SportBet vs 956 PIT
Analysis:
* 1* ML WAGER *
** WNBA TEASER PLAY of the DAY **
INDIANA -2 & SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (1*)... Teaser Wager...
MLB RunLine Triple-Dime Bet
953 SFG 1.5 (-140) Sportsbetting.com vs 954 CLE
Analysis:
*** 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY ***
SF GIANTS +1.5 (RL) -140...as much as I wanted to make this a ML wager...there really is too much value on the RL at this price to pass up...VR
*** 3* WNBA BEST BET of the DAY ***
UNDER 145 SEA/LA (3*)
MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
952 ATL (-136) SportBet vs 951 MIL
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER **
MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
955 NYY (-150) SportBet vs 956 PIT
Analysis:
* 1* ML WAGER *
** WNBA TEASER PLAY of the DAY **
INDIANA -2 & SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (1*)... Teaser Wager...
Last edited:
Kelso Sturgeon
High Rollers Baseball
10 units Yankees
Best Bets Club
5 units White Sox
4 units Cin/Tor Over
3 units Kansas City
High Rollers Baseball
10 units Yankees
Best Bets Club
5 units White Sox
4 units Cin/Tor Over
3 units Kansas City