Tuesday Service Plays 8/5/08

[the duke]

Comps


Marc Lawrence

Play On: Minnesota w/Baker vs Dickey

Note: The Twins take on the Mariners in Game Two of this three-game series tonight when Scott Baker battles knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in Seattle. Aside from being in rotten current KW form with 8 walks and 5 strikeouts in his last three stars, Dickey owns a sky-high 7.61 ERA in his home starts this season. Enter Baker who is in solid current form while cashing in 11 of his 17 team starts this season. With the Twins scoring runs on a consistent basis, look for Baker to improve to 5-1 on the road in August here this evening.


Nelly

Washington + over Colorado

The Nats have won four straight games and although the season has not gone well Washington is starting to see some of the production they expected with some of the key pieces finally back in the lineup. Washington has scored 28 runs in the last four games and playing in Colorado should allow the Nationals to continue at a strong pace. The Rockies have lost five of the last eight games and this could be a tough series for the Rockies as it follows a long road trip on the East coast. John Lannan has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of the last ten starts and he has much better numbers than his record indicates with a 3.61 ERA. Jorge De La Rose has allowed six or more runs in three of his last six starts and he owns a 6.94 ERA despite playing as a big favorite tonight. Look for Washington?s offense to stay hot and have a great chance for another win.

Be sure to join Nelly?s Sportsline for a Tuesday Night Upset selection as we take on an underdog with a great chance to deliver. Cash in for big profits tonight with this selection as we continue a profitable summer on the diamond. This is a game you may not be considering in the American League schedule but it should be the best pick of the night.



Great Lakes Sports

Major League Baseball Selection

Cleveland at Tampa Bay 7:15PM EST Play on: Cleveland Indians with Carmona

The Cleveland Indians are an amazing 19-3 vs the Tampa Bay Devil Rays the last three years in this series including a perfect 5-0 vs the Tam Pa Bay Devil Rays this year. The Cleveland Indians is also 7-3 at Tampa Bay the last three years, and the Cleveland Indians are a respectable 36-30 when playing on Tuesday's the last three years. We look for the Cleveland Indians to beat the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in this key American League showdown for the road win tonight.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Milwaukee at CINCINNATI (-110) Karl Garrett


Let's go with the Reds tonight over the slumping Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee has just 2 wins their last 9 games, and last night's loss saw Prince Fielder mix it up with Manny Parra in the dugout. That can't be good for team chemistry.

It also can't be good when the pitcher you send out there is just 1-6 with an over 7 ERA on the road this year.

Cincy starter Edinson Volquez righted his ship with a solid 6 inning, 1 run win at Houston his last time out, and he is 6-1 at home this year. Volquez has also bested the Brewers in his lone start against them, working 7 strong, while allowing only 1 run to score.

As for Dave Bush, he is 0-2 his last 5 starts against the Reds with 26 runs allowed in just 19 innings of work.

This call is easy.

4♦ CINCINNATI


Los Angeles (pick) at ST. LOUIS Sports Gambling Hotline

We like the mojo the Dodgers have now that #99 Manny Ramirez has joined the lineup, and we will back them tonight in their opener against St. Louis.

Chad Billingsley comes into this start off a complete game shutout of San Francisco to improve to 11-9 for the season with a 3.04 ERA.

Chris Carpenter will counter, and is making just his second start of the season. Carpenter worked just 4 innings in his first start back from injury, and we certainly won't count on him to go deep in this ball game. That being the case, we all know how shaky the Cards' pen has been, so we will back the Dodgers to pull away in this game.

Los Angeles has won their last pair, and 7 of their last 10, while St. Louis has dropped 3 of their last 4.

Stick with the Los Angeles 9 in this one tonight.

Play on the Dodgers.

2♦ LOS ANGELES


Minnesota (-125) at SEATTLE Bobby Maxwell

The Twins will show up for this one after losing in Seattle on Monday. Scott Baker (7-3, 3.53 ERA) is on the mound for Minnesota and they are 7-3 in the Twins' last 10 overall and 23-8 in their last 31 games as a favorite.

We will put our money behind Scott Baker over the Mariners' R.A. Dickey (3-6, 4.41). Baker is 4-2 on the road this season and the Twins are 6-2 in Baker's last eight overall. His last road start was in Cleveland when he gave up three runs on five hits of an 11-4 win.

Dickey has been roughed up lately, giving up 14 runs in his last 19 innings of work and the Mariners are just 3-7 in his last 10 outings. He hasn't faced the Twins since 2003 when he gave up 11 runs in 7.1 innings of work as a starter for Texas.

The Twins are 11-4 in the second game of a series and 5-1 in their last six as a road favorite. Meanwhile Seattle is just 8-19 in its last 27 at home and 5-11 in their last 16 overall. The Mariners have mailed it in with the bats, but look for the Twins to hang on enough to get in the Mariners bullpen and then deliver an easy win.

3♦ MINNESOTA

 

[the duke]

Comps

Steve Janus

MLB | Aug 05
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays -125

The Rays are back on track winning 5 of their last 6 overall. Tonight they look from another well-pitched game by Edwin Jackson. Tampa is 6-2 with Jackson on the mound against teams with a losing record in his last 8 starts. The Indians are just 6-23 in their last 29 games as a road underdog and they've lost 30 of their last 42 overall on the road.



Jimmy The Moose

Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays Aug 5 2008 7:05PM

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Reason: Oakland is 1-11 in their last 12 road games. The A's are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall. Oakland is 8-25 in their last 33 games as an underdog. In their last 15 games vs. AL East opponents the A's are 2-13. The A's have lost Smith's last 3 starts. Oakland is 1-7 in his last 8 starts as an underdog. Toronto is 11-4 in their last 15 home games. In their last 12 games as a favorite they are 10-2. Toronto is 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The Jays Scott Richmond will be making his second career start and he looked pretty good in his first one. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.


Lee Kostroski


GAME: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners Aug 5, 2008 10:10PM

SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Minnesota Twins -125

REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON Minnesota (Baker) minus on the money line vs. Seattle (Dickey), 10:10 PM EST

The Twins crushed Tim Wakefield earlier this season, posting seven runs in less than three innings. Facing another knuckleball pitcher should be a welcome sight in Seattle. The Mariners are just 4-15 in games that R. A. Dickey has pitched in and just 3-7 when he starts. Dickey has allowed 14 runs over his last three starts and at home he is 0-4 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Seattle is also just 15-20 in games decided in the bullpen and facing one of the top hitting teams in baseball will be a difficult situation for Dickey and the Mariners.

The Twins are 11-6 in games that Scott Baker has started this season and 6-2 in his last eight outings. The Twins have won three of his last four road starts and he has strong overall numbers with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Minnesota also owns one of the strongest bullpens in the American League. Seattle is hitting just .251 against right-handed pitching at home and facing Baker will be a difficult challenge.

The Twins are 23-7 in the last 30 games as a favorite and this is still a cheap price for a team that quietly has one of the best records in the AL against a team with the worst record in AL. Seattle is just 21-34 at home this season and the Twins have won four of the last six road series. The road team actually won seven of nine meetings between these teams last season so the Twins should be able to deliver the victory despite long travel.

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess

Tue (MLB) Reds
Tue (MLB) Indians



ARMVIN SPORTS

ST LOUIS CARDINALS -107




HONDO

The Indians escorted Hondo to the winner's circle last night, giving him a much-needed payday that boosted the bulbous bankroll to 655 keltners.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will work the late shift with the Bucs and Giants: 10 units apiece on Duke and Sanchez.


Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Yankees Monday night.
Tuesday it's the Brewers. The surplus is 140 sirignanos.

 

[the duke]

Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (907) SD Padres and (908) NYM Mets. Take "Under". Light hitting San Diego continues to be an under machine, at 5-2 under the last 7 games. Their offense won't score much in Shea stadium, a huge pitcher-friendly park. Southpaw Chris Young has excellent stuff, fanning 59 in 59 innings, and his last start went under the total (3 total runs), and the team is 7-3 under the total in his starts. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey knows how to throw strikes (44 walks in 126 innings) and has a 2.25 ERA at home. Don't look for many runs, play the Padres/Mets under the total!




Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (929) MIN Twins and (930) SEA Mariners. Take "(929) MIN Twins".
The Twins really let one get away Monday night, blowing a 6-0 lead en route to an ugly loss at Seattle. The Mariners have actually won two straight after last night's heroics! But don't look for that to continue here. The Twins will be intent on rebounding quickly and Scott Baker has a commanding edge over R.A. Dickey in the pitching category. I'll spot the number with the Twins.

 

[the duke]

John Fina

August 5, 2008

Selection: Tampa Bay Rays (-130)

Reason: There is no write-up with today's free pick. Take the Tampa Bay Rays!



Brian Marshall

August 5, 2008

Game: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Plays On: Detroit Tigers (+125)

Game Analyses: There is no "Game Analysis" with today's free pick. Take the Detroit Tigers!



Tony Mathews

August 5, 2008.

Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners

Selection: Minnesota Twins (-130)

Explanation: Take the Minnesota Twins!

 

[the duke]

JEFFERSONSPORTS 1-0 yest +1.20 units

54-37-1 last 92 plays 60%

MLB RECORD
+27.06 units (+27.06 playing 100 per game)

MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR TUESDAY
TAMPA BAY-128 Jackson
MINNESOTA-126 Baker
NEW YORK METS-160 Pelfrey
ST. LOUIS-107 Carpenter

 

[the duke]

LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS


Boston/Josh Beckett -170
Play of the Day 5*


Philadelphia/Jamie Moyer -155 5*


Minnesota/Scott Baker -130
FREE PICK 5*

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall

BASEBALL LOCKS FOR TUESDAY

ChiCubs -245 over Astors at Wrigley--Wandy Rodriguez can't beat Harden on the North Side. You got to lay it to get it

Florida +140 at Philly--Johnson with the upset special in Citizens against Moyer

Twins -125 at Seattle--I still have to take Baker and Minney over RA Dickey in the Emerald City

ChiSox -145 over Detroit--Gavin Floyd is the man and he'll take out Robertson on the South Side

Cincy -110 and Volquez over Milwaukee in the Queen City--Bush isn't beating him on the road

METS -165 and Pelfrey over Chris Young and Padres at Shea

BECKETT -165 and Red Sox at Kansas City over Bannister

St.Louis -110 over LA Dodgers--I'm on Chris Carpenter in his second start since Tommy John surgery. I don't like Billingsley on the road

Washington +155 over Colorado--Taking a risk here with Lannan on the road in the Rockies den


BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR TUESDAY

SEATT-MINNEY OVER 8.5 RUNS

DET-CHISOX UNDER 10.5 RUNS

BOST-KC OVER 8.5 RUNS

NY-TEX OVER 11 RUNS

CLEVE-TB UNDER 8.5 RUNS

OAK-TOR UNDER 8.5 RUNS

SF-ATL UNDER 8.5 RUNS

PITT-ARIZ OVER 8.5 RUNS

WASH-COLO UNDER 10 RUNS

CARDS-DODGERS OVER 8 RUNS

SD-NY METS UNDER 8 RUNS

MILW-CINCY UNDER 9 RUNS

FLA-PHILLY OVER 9.5 RUNS


Comps


Ariz -280 and Brandon Webb over the Pirates in the desert--Zach Duke will get jacked up

SF -125 over Atlanta--Dirty Sanchez over Mike Hampton in the Bay

Oakland +115 at Toronto--Greg Smith with a mini stunner on the road in T-Town

CLEVELAND +110 at Tampa--Carmona at the Trop over Edwin Jackson

TEXAS +150 over NY Yanks--I think Harrison and the homey's get it done over the Bombers and Pettitte in 105 temps in Dallas. Yanks wilt this week on the road

 

[the duke]

GATOR

MLB 70% Super Situations:


MLB Tuesday: Play On MLB (NL) home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is >= 2.250 over his last 3 starts, 31-10 SU since 1997 (75.6%). PLAY: San Francisco -125


MLB Tuesday: Play Over MLB (NL) road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, in August games. 38-13 Over the last five seasons. (74.5%) PLAY: Milwaukee / Cincinnati OVER 9 (-120)



Top Angles

MLB Tuesday: Moyer (Phil) is 11-1 SU against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record).

MLB Tuesday: Carpenter (Stl) is 40-7 SU against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record).

MLB Tuesday: Pittsburgh is 1-16 SU against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Tuesday: Dickey (Sea) is 1-14 SU against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game since 1997. (Team's Record).

 

[the duke]

EZWINNERS



2 STAR: (910) ST. LOUIS (-$107) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Carpenter only) (Risking $214 to win $200)

2 STAR: (929) MINNESOTA (-$124) over Seattle
(Listing Baker only) (Risking $248 to win $200)

1 STAR: (901) HOUSTON (+$205) over Chicago
(Listing Rodriguez only) (Risking $100 to win $205)

1 STAR: (917) OAKLAND (+$117) over Toronto
(Listing Smith only) (Risking $100 to win $117)

1 STAR: (913) PITTSBURGH (+$230) over Arizona
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $230)

 

[the duke]

Comps

Alex Smart Sports

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers (MLB) - Aug 5, 2008 8:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -157 New York Yankees

The NY Yankees (61-51) enter into this road tilt against the Texas Rangers (59-54) , in search of some consistency as they continue their run for a postseason appearance. Yesterday in game one of this series , the Yanks ended a 10 game winning streak here in Arlington, with a 9-5 loss. NY has now lost 6 of their L/9 overall, after coming out on fire, with a 8 game winning streak after the all star break. Despite of their current inefficiencies, I expect the Zoo Crew will get back on track today as they send one of their most reliable starters , Andy Pettitte ( 12-8, 4.18 ERA) out to hill. I know the Yankees veteran hurler, is off a ugly outing, last time out, allowing 9 runs on a season high 11 hits in a 12-6 loss to the Angels, however, because of that dismal appearance , you can bet the southpaw will be primed and very motivated for a bounce back effort . It must be noted that the Yankee hurler, was 7-2 along with a 2.11 ERA in his nine starts prior to the above mentioned debacle. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers will return fire with rookie lefty Matt Harrison (2-2, 7.40), who will be going against the Yankees for the first time in his career. Facing the Bronx Bombers, is almost never a good venture, for a young pitcher, especially one that has ,seemed very vulnerable of late. The former Carolina League thrower is on a current run that has seen him go 1-2 while garnering a ugly 9.35 ERA in his last four overall starts. Needless to say he could easily end up as cannon fodder for a hungry Yankee offense in this spot. The Yankees have to turn to things around in a hurry, if they have any hopes of playing in October, and because of this sense of urgency , they become a dangerous opponent for any team right now. Final notes & Key Trends: Yankees are 21-7 L/28 meetings in this series. Yankees are 11-4 in Pettittes last 15 starts as a road favorite. Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers have lost 7 of their L/9 as home underdogs of +125 to +150.

Play on the NY Yankees




Craig Trapp

Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - Aug 5, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -217 Chicago Cubs Pick

I Love the CHI Cubs today. Harden is pitching for the CUBS and think he will shut down the Astros. The right-hander looks for his second straight victory while trying to help the Cubs bounce back from a loss as they continue their home series with the surging Houston Astros on Tuesday afternoon. Harden (1-1, 1.11 ERA) enters this contest after allowing a run and six hits while striking out nine in seven innings of an 11-4 win at Milwaukee on Thursday for his first victory since being traded from Oakland on July 8. Look for the Cubs to come back after disappointing effort yesterday to blow out HOU.


Big Al McMordie

A's vs. Blue Jays (MLB) - Aug 5, 2008 7:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: Oakland A's Pick

At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Toronto Blue Jays. With the continuing injury to starting pitcher Dustin McGowan, the Jays will continue to give a look to rookie righthander Scott Richmond. The fact that Richmond is 29 years old and getting his second ever start in the Major Leagues should tell you something about him as a potential long-term prospect for the Jays.

Richmond is certainly not one of Toronto's top prospects by any stretch, and in fact in the Minors, Richmond has never pitched above the AA level. In his first start in the Bigs last week, Richmond turned in a less-than-inspiring performance, giving up seven hits and three earned runs in slightly more than five innings. Even with the Jays winning Monday night's game, the road team has dominated this series this season, with the visitors taking five of the seven games. The A's in particular, have used the road to their advantage lately against this Blue Jays team. In their last eight meetings at Toronto's Rogers Centre, the A's have won seven, with last night's victory by Toronto the Blue Jays' first at home over Oakland since August of 2006.

Take the A's.

 

[the duke]

PlusLineSports

Daily Baseball Pick

Tuesday August 5, 2008 MLB Daily Selections:

Detroit(Robertson) vs Chicago White Sox(Floyd)

Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runline (+132) Moneyline Line (-139)

 

[ccat1133]

Maddax Sports Comp.

Today's Free Pick is Colorado -170

 

[the duke]

Sports Kingz

Mets -160

Colorado -170

Minnesota -125

Yankees -165

 

[the duke]

Yankee Capper

3 Units - Oakland Athletics +115

3 Units - Pirates/D-Backs Over 8.5

2 Units - Nationals/Rockies Over 10

 

[the duke]

MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

PREMIUM PICK

METS OVER PADRES

 

[the duke]

NSA

Last 4 days 4-20


20* White Sox -145
10* Minnesota -125
10* Tampa Bay -130
10* Dodgers +100
10* Milwaukee +105
10* Toronto -130

 

[the duke]

Jack Reynolds

Power Plays Hotline 50* MLB "Fan Appreciation Winner "

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

Last night the Twins lost to the Mariners 10-6 in a Game played at Safe Co Field. Blame it on the Jet Lag.( maybe ) Tonight the Twins will be ready with SCOTT BAKER ( 7-3 3.53 ) when he takes the mound against R.A.Dickey ( 2-6 5.56 ) who will start for the Mariners. In two appearances against the Twins Dickey is 0-2 with an ERA of 12.26.That ERA is enough to jump on the Twins tonight. Minnesota still leads the American League Central Division over the White Sox.

Minnesota Twins


comp


Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

The Reds defeated the Brewers last night in the opener of this 3 game series. The Brewers were caught fighting in the Dugout during the game. Fat Ass Price Fielder ( who thinks he is tough ) went after stating Pitcher Manny Parra after he was removed from the game.

The Ship is sinking and the players know it. Dave Bush ( 5-9 4.73 ) will start for the Brewers. Edison Volquez ( 13-3 2.74 ) who is having a carer season will start for the Reds. Volquez defeated the Brewers in Milwaukee on 07/12/2009 ( 8-2 ) his ERA leads the N.L. with a sparkling ERA of 2.74. Take Cincinnati with Volquez in the Box over the Fighting Milwaukee Brewers.

 

[the duke]

Wunderdog


Game: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -123 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.4)

Edinson Volquez has had a breakout season for the Reds and has not allowed more than three runs in a game but three times on the season covering 23 starts. He is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, and in Cy Young contention for a team that hasn't been very effective this season, but have been pretty good at home at 31-25. Dave Bush has been the weakest link on the Brewers? staff this season and the road has really been an issue. The Brewers are just 1-8 in his nine road starts and getting pounded by a total of 55-27. The opponents have scored at least six runs in eight of the nine starts. Since Volquez hasn't given up six in a game all season, we have to like the Reds here.


Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on St. Louis -106 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.8)

One thing is for sure and that is you'd never get Chris Carpenter and the Cards at home for basically even money before his Tommy John surgery last April. The fact that Carpenter threw 67 pitches and allowed just one run over four innings, and had no setbacks says this guy is ready to be himself again and soon. The Cards are 27-10 over his last 37 home starts and we'll take the odds makers hedge that he isn't Chris Carpenter yet, and say that he is. St. Louis has been a difficult stop for Los Angeles over the past three years as they have gone just 2-7 here and have been outscored in the process 59-17 or by almost five runs a game. We will back the Cards in the opener at home.

Game: Pittsburgh at Arizona (9:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Pittsburgh +244 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 4.9)

Sometimes you have to look at the odds on a game and make a decision if the value pendulum has swung to the extreme enough to push the value in line of the huge underdog. We have an opportunity here to back such a situation. Brandon Webb has been a top pitcher for several years, but the home record of teams in his starts has been just 34-21 for 61.8% over the last four years, while it would take 71% in this price range to breakeven. This is a classic letdown situation for the D-Backs. They are fat and happy right now - maybe overconfident. They have Webb on the mound (coming off four straight wins), they have their lead over the Dodgers in the division, they are facing a struggling pitcher, and they are coming off a comfortable 13-7 win in game one. How can they not let down here? Pittsburgh has the offense to stay in this one, especially if Arizona bats take the day off. Webb, as good as he has been is actually just 9-28 in post All-Star play vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game. We will give the Pirates a go here, as the odds are longer than their true value by a fairly significant margin