Wunderdogsports
NHL
Game: Nashville at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Toronto -1.5 goals +200 (risk 5 to win 10)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 5.5 -131 (risk 4 to win 3.1)
Nashville is scoring just 2.5 goals per game on the road although their scoring has picked up of late. Regardless of what they are doing on offense, we know Toronto is going to have a relatively easy time scoring on this Predators defense. Nashville is allowing over 3 goals per game on the season and they have allowed their last three opponents to each score 4+ (13 toal goals). Toronto has put up eight goals in their last two games and they are getting 3.3 per game on the season at home. Nashville is 11-32 the pats three seasons on the road vs. teams that score 3+ goals per game. They are also 8-14 over that span after allowing 4+ goals in two straight games. Toronto is 11-4 OVER at home this season. Nashville is 11-3 OVER this season vs. teams that allow 17.5%+ power play conversion and 9-1 OVER if those teams also allow 29+ shots on goal per game. We like Toronto -1.5 and the OVER here.
Game: Detroit at Montreal (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -102 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
These teams don't know each other very well, having only played 13 times over the past ten years and once over the past three seasons. They last met in January of this year, a game in which the two total goals were scored. Detroit can score, but they can also play defense. Montreal is averaging just 2 goals per game over their last six games, having been shut out twice. Detroit is 48-30 UNDER the past three seasons vs. teams that allow 30+ shots on goal per game. They are also 11-2 UNDER in their last thirteen on the road following 3+ straight home wins. We expect a relatively flat Detroit team here and defense to prevail.
Game: Ottawa at Tampa Bay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals -221 (risk 3 to win 1.4)
Ottawa has amassed a 6-3 road mark thanks to great defense (allowing 2.1 goals per game on the road). But, they are showing serious signs of cracking. They have allowed 4.7 goals per game over their last six games, on way to an 0-6 mark. Tampa Bay is 9-4 at home thanks to scoring 3.8 goals per game and allowing 2.2 per game. They are also on a bad run of late but we see Ottawa having very little chance at a road blowout win here - especially the way they are playing. Home teams having lost four of their last five games win the game outright 57% of the time. We aren't sure that Tampa will win here but we are quite sure they won't get blown out so we'll back them +1.5 goals on the puckline
NCAA BB
Game: U N C Greensboro at Virginia Tech (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U N C Greensboro +10
The Southern Conference has a couple of good teams. Everyone has seen Davidson hang with NC and Duke. The not so talked about team is UNC Greensboro. They played to within three points of Davidson last year at home and within 10 on the road. They also took NC State to OT on the road. This year they have already won convincingly at Georgia Tech. Kyle Hines was an honorable mention All-American last year and has NBA potential. The Spartans can also light it up with the three, as they are connecting on 40%, which will be a significant factor here as V. Tech is giving up 41% from beyond the arc. Virginia Tech will have a difficult time competing in the ACC this year. Everyone is gone, and not being able to get to 70 points against the likes of Elon, E. Washington and NC Ashville is very telling. NC Greensboro has enough talent to win this game especially if they are knocking down the threes.
Game: Illinois State at Eastern Michigan (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Illinois State -5.5
First-year coach Tim Jankovich inherited a talented and experienced team. If everything comes together for the Redbirds, they could make a run in the MVC. Eldridge, Slack and Dyer have all stepped up their game. The Redbirds also go eight deep, and are getting production off the bench. E. Michigan had a tough go in Coach Ramsey's first year at the helm to finish 13-19. Double-digit losses at home to both Radford and Brown show this team still has a long way to go. The Eagles have been out-shot from the field, out-shot from three-point range and out-rebounded. The Redbirds have responded in out of conference play by posting a 16-5-2 ATS mark, which includes 7-2 ATS against the MAC. More talent and more experience should be able to get it done on the road.
Game: N Carolina at Pennsylvania (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on N Carolina -25
North Carolina ate a bitter pill in last year's tournament, losing to Georgetown. They are a stacked team on a mission this year, as it's Final Four or bust. They have probably the best player at the most important position in point guard Ty Lawson. This team put up 85.7 ppg last season and they are topping that so far in 2007. They are 7-0 so far SU and 5-1 ATS. Penn is just 2-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. Against Villanova on December 1st, they couldn't cover a 21 point spread. This team is just 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. good defenses (team holding opponents to 42% or less from the field). Since last season, they have played six elite opponents - teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ points per game. They are 0-6 ATS against those teams and tonight we see that going to 0-7. They are also 0-8 ATS as an underdog under Glen Miller. Tar Heels roll here.
Game: Toledo at Houston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston -16
Toledo is off their best season in a quarter-decade. But, they lost three starters who averaged a combined 61 ppg. The losses have resulted in 1-6 record to start the season. This game is the sixth straight road game for the Rockets and these young players don't yet know how to deal with that kind of extended road trip. Yhid yrsm id hryyinh judy 57 points per game and they are running into a defense that allows just 64 ppg at home, while scoring 84 per game. Houston is 7-1 in contrast with their lone loss coming by one point early in the season. Unlike the road-wearly Rockets, Houston is well rested, having played four straight home games and just one game over the past week. Under Tom Penders, this Cougars team is 11-1 ATS vs. teams that shoot 42% or worse from the field and with Toledo averaging 39%, it could be a long night for the Rockets.
Game: Michigan State at Bradley (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Michigan State -3.5
Bradley has gotten off to a fast start at 6-2, but notably over mostly inferior competition. Bradley has to rely on guard play to get them by as their interior is very inexperienced. A top 25 recruiting class has yet to gel as Tyrone Cole-Scott hasn't found the rim at long distance. Michigan State has returned all five starters from a 23-win team a year ago. This is a team with Final Four potential, and if that is the case you simply can't go to Bradley and not come up with a convincing win. Morgan and Neitzel can match the strong guard play of Bradley, but Michigan State has the horses inside to make the difference and more depth. They shoot over 50% as a team and hold opponents to 37%, and 30 beyond the arc, so Bradley will not be getting easy looks and, quite simply, if their guards don't have big games they have no chance.
NBA
Game: Utah at Sacramento (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on First Half UNDER 102 -110
Utah is pouring in 111 points per game at home, but that drops off by 8 points when they are on the road. Sacramento allows 108 ppg on the road, but they keep opponents to under triple-figures at home. Eighty-five percent of the games these teams have played over the past decade here in Sacramento (23 of 27) have gone UNDER the first-half total including three of the last four. Utah is 19-7 UNDER on the road as a favorite since last season inlcuding 9-1 UNDER when favored by a small amount like this. Utah is 43-24 UNDER in the first half at home vs. great teams (those outscoring opponents by 6+ ppg).
Game: Milwaukee at L A Clippers (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on L A Clippers -1.5
Two struggling teams face off in LA tonight as the Clippers, losers of five straight, will match-up with the Bucks - losers of four straight. After a five-game winning streak the Bucks looked like a team that may be turning the corner, but that was short lived, and presents value for tonight's game. The Bucks may be on improving, but there is one area where they have not changed a bit. They continue to struggle on the road. They stand at 1-6 on the season, and that resembles a lot of what we saw last year from this team. The Bucks finished last year 3-21 on the road, so are now a combined 4-27 in their last 31 road games. Hard to back a team getting just a bucket that has been getting hammered on the road. The Clippers have lost five in a row, but all five teams are .500 or better, and on the season only sub-.500 team has broken through on the Clippers, and that was the under-achieving Bulls. Just see a lot of value on this minimal line and we will ride the home team here
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