THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
(1) L.A. Lakers (14-6, 10-9-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (15-10, 13-12 ATS)
The Lakers, who kept their season alive with a close home victory in Game 5, now go back to the TD Banknorth Garden for another elimination game against the Celtics, who will get their second chance to secure their 17th NBA title.
Los Angeles held on for a 103-98 home victory Sunday night, but again failed to cover, this time as a 7?-point chalk. Boston?s Big Three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined for 67 points ? with Pierce going off for 38 ? but no other Celtic reached double figures, while the Lakers had five players in double figures, led by Kobe Bryant?s 25 points.
Los Angeles, which blew a 24-point lead in losing Game 4, was up by 19 in the second quarter before again allowing Boston to claw its way back into the game. The Celtics trailed by just three at halftime and actually took the lead in the fourth quarter.
Boston, which was 8-12 ATS in the playoffs entering this series, has cashed in every game against the Lakers and is on a 6-0 ATS run overall. Meanwhile, L.A. is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10.
The Celtics are now 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS against the Lakers this season; prior to this stretch, the Lakers were on a 7-1 ATS run in this storied rivalry. Finally, the underdog is on a 4-0 spread-covering streak in this playoff series.
Despite their recent woes, the Lakers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games and carry additional positive ATS streaks of 10-3 as an underdog of less than five points, 13-4-2 as a road pup, 9-3-1 overall when catching points and 11-4-1 after a SU win. On the downside, L.A. is 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 NBA Finals games, 0-6 ATS in its last six against the Atlantic Division, and 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics are on a 7-2 ATS run and sport further pointspread streaks of 7-0 against the Pacific Division, 14-2 against the Western Conference, 14-5 at the Garden and 27-11-1 following a spread-cover. The C?s lone negative: a paltry 3-12 ATS mark in their last 15 as a home chalk of less than five points.
The ?under? trends run deep for Los Angeles, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 on one day of rest, 7-1 as an underdog (5-1 as a playoff pup), 7-3 on the highway and 39-19 coming off a SU win. Likewise, for Boston, the under is on streaks of 5-0 after allowing 100 or more points, 5-1 on one day of rest and 5-1 as a playoff chalk of less than five points, but the over is 5-2 in the Celtics? last seven on the parquet floor.
Finally, Game 5 sailed over the posted price of 192, but the under is still 3-2 in the Finals (1-1 in Boston).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
Boston (44-29) at Philadelphia (42-30)
Two southpaws are set to square off at Citizens Bank Park, as Jon Lester (5-3, 3.43 ERA) toes the slab for the Red Sox against Jamie Moyer (7-3, 4.12) and the Phillies in the second game of a three-game series.
Philadelphia pounded out an 8-2 victory on Monday to halt a modest two game losing skid while improving to 22-13 at Citizens Bank this year, including 9-2 in the last 11. The Phillies are on a 15-6 run overall and they?re 20-6 in their last 26 Tuesday games, but they?re only 6-12 in their last 18 against American League East foes.
Despite Monday?s defeat, Boston continues to sport impressive hot streaks of 12-5 overall, 46-11 in interleague play, 21-7 in interleague road games and 24-5 against the N.L. East. Also, the Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 meetings with the Phillies, including 5-2 at Citizens Bank.
Lester, who has a no-hitter to his credit this season, is 3-1 with a no-decision in his last five starts, having won the last two. On Thursday against Baltimore, he allowed two runs on seven hits in seven innings in a 9-2 home rout. He?s gone at least six innings and allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, with Boston going 6-3 during that stretch. Going back further, the Red Sox are on a 20-8 run when Lester starts and they?re 5-0 in his last five interleague outings.
Lester, who is set to make his first career start against Philadelphia, is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in seven road starts this year, and the Red Sox have lost three of his last four road starts, with Lester going 0-1 with three no-decisions.
The ageless Moyer has been red-hot for the past month, going 5-0 with a no-decision, and the Phils won all six games. On Thursday at Florida, he threw eight shutout innings, allowing two hits and just one walk in a 3-0 victory. He has a 2.70 ERA in the last six games, yielding just 12 runs in 40 innings.
Moyer is 3-2 with a rather high 5.53 ERA in seven home starts this season, though the Phils are 16-4 in his last 20 games as a home chalk. He?s also only 6-11 with a 6.69 ERA in 22 career appearances (20 starts) against Boston, having spent 16 years in the American League ? including part of one with the Sox.
The under is 13-6-2 in Lester?s last 21 starts overall, but the over is 6-2 in Moyer?s last eight overall and 5-0 in his last five as a home chalk.
Last night?s game barely hurdled the posted total, making the over is 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings between these teams, including 5-1 in the last six clashes. That said, for Boston, the under is on runs of 29-10-2 as an interleague pup, 17-6-2 in the second game of a series and 5-2-1 against left-handers. The under is also on streaks for Philly of 11-3 overall and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Chicago Cubs (45-25) at Tampa Bay (40-29)
The Cubs will send right-hander Ryan Dempster (8-2, 2.81 ERA) to the hill to open a three-game interleague series against the Rays, who will counter with ace lefty Scott Kazmir (6-2, 1.74) at Tropicana Field.
Chicago was idle on Monday after winning two of three in a weekend interleague series at Toronto, dropping the opener but winning the next two, including Sunday?s 7-4 victory. The Cubs have won six of their last seven games, but they remain below .500 on the highway at 16-17. Also, despite the success in Toronto, Lou Pineilla?s club is still just 4-11 in its last 15 interleague road contests versus winning teams.
Tampa Bay took two of three in an interleague home series against Miami over the weekend, winning the first two games before getting blown out 9-3 on Sunday. The Rays have followed an 8-2 streak by going just 5-7 in their last 12. However, they?re 22-4 in their last 26 home games, including 5-1 in the last six, and 20-6 in their last 26 as a home chalk. One negative: Tampa?s ongoing 6-21 slide against the N.L. Central.
The Cubs are 6-1 in Dempster?s last seven outings, with the right-hander going 4-1 with two no-decisions. On Wednesday against Atlanta, he went the distance, giving up two runs on just four hits in a 7-2 home rout. Dempster has thrown at least six innings in 11 of his 14 starts this year.
Both of Dempster?s losses have come away from Wrigley Field, where he?s 0-2 despite a 2.59 ERA in five starts. Also, he?s 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa.
Kazmir had won six straight decisions while posting a 0.88 ERA, before being dealt his second loss of the year last Wednesday. In that contest at the Los Angeles Angels, he gave up three runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings, falling 4-2.
Kazmir is 4-0 with a minuscule 0.35 ERA at Tropicana this season, giving up just one run in 26 innings. Tuesday?s outing will mark his first against the Cubs.
The under is 5-1 in Dempster?s last six starts, 6-2 in his last eight on the road, 8-1-1 in Kazmir?s last 10 on field turf and 4-1 in Kazmir?s last five home starts.
The over for Chicago is on streaks of 6-1 after a day off, 5-1-1 against lefties and 4-1 in series openers, but the under is 36-17-5 in the last 58 on the road, 6-0-1 in the last seven against winning teams, 8-2-1 in the last 11 interleague road games and 15-5-1 in the last 21 on Tuesday.
The over for Tampa is on runs of 6-1-1 after an off day, 4-1-1 in series openers and 14-5-2 in interleague play, but the under is 12-4-1 in the team?s last 17 overall, 7-2-1 in its last 10 as a favorite and 20-7-1 in the last 28 at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
