U,S. OPEN at Shinnecock Hills

[Ice Picks]

Leaving Sunday for Long Island and the Open, so I am starting this thread...Sorry Stanley...

Pans...

...Tiger Woods is showing how much talent he really has, in being able to compete withour Butch...IMO he may not make the cut....he is STILL the betting favorite, at +450...

...Darren Clarke...has lost weight and developed a different, more controlled swing through Butch Harmon...these factors make him a non-factor for at least a year, which is what it usually takes for a good player to physically and mentally adjust...ala Sergio Garcia a couple of years ago...

...Nick Faldo...still can play, but wont be in the top 10...

...Ray Floyd, Tom Kite, Cory Pavin...former winners, but not enough gas left in the tank...Craig Stadler fits this too...

...Duvall...did he even qualify??? Probably through the British win...

...Mike Weir...game has suffered since Augusta win last year...

PICKS...

1. Mickelson...has sort of been in the background since Augusta and will be a heavy crowd favorite...I don't count him out for the slam...+900

2. Stuart Appleby...has slowly become a very solid player, and could pull off a big win here...+6,000

3. Freddy Couples - yea, I know...but he is having a very solid year, and a major title under his belt...+8,000...another crowd favorite...

4. Ben Curtis...a long-shot at the British, has had a decent season so far, and worth a shot at +20000...

5. Sergio Garcia...definitely ready for a break through win...+2,500

"Hot Player" [recent winner] Longshots...

6. Joey Sindelar...a older veteran playing in his home state...won recently...my question is whether he has the mental game to convince himself he can win a major...+20,000

7. Craig Parry - has a lot of forearm strength, needed to chop the ball out of the usual cabbage the USGA likes to torture the field with...recently won at Doral, I believe, and has been a factor in other majors....+15,000

My guess is that a the winner will NOT be from the U.S. If they had a "any other player" choice, I would probably take that.

All odds are from SportOdds.com. BET365 have not posted odds as yet, and no match-ups are available at this point either...

Good luck to all...

IP

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS (e.w.):

Phil Mickelson(20/1)
Stewart Cink(66/1)
Adam Scott(50/1)
Sergio Garcia(33/1)

GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Some nice prices LIA.

ZJohnson 125ew

Also interested in CCampbell, Ames & Cink. Yet to jump on though.

 

[lal2000]

Going on the board now with a few early ones ? more to follow.

Outrights (? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)
P Casey 100/1 @ Chandler
B Estes 500/1 @ Sky Bet
J Rose 100/1 @ Tote ? 1.5 units ew
S Cink 80/1 @ William Hills (1/5 odds 1st 5)

Adding the following:

Outrights (? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)
N Faldo 200/1 @ Sporting Odds (What was I thinking???)
J Maggert 150/1 @ Sporting Odds
S Verplank 80/1 @ SkyBet
K Perry 66/1 @ Bet365

Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Ernie Els to win 8.5/1 @ Pinnacle
?The Big Easy? is the perfect player for the U.S. Open: he earned his nickname not only for his swing, but also from his untroubled demeanour. And the U.S. Open is a test of patience. His links credentials are excellent with a win in the Open Championship in 2002 and three top-3 finishes in that event in the last four years and his scrambling abilities are not too bad either ? he currently ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in this category. He looks good value at these odds to earn his third U.S. Open title.

Retief Goosen to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Victor Chandler, BlueSq and Tote
Americans and South Africans have won 48 of the last 50 U.S. Opens and Goosen and Els have combined to win three of those for South Africa. This course is very different to the scene of his 2002 win, Southern Hills, but his links credentials are impressive enough. Aside from his record-breaking form around St Andrews in the Dunhill Cup, he has finished in the top-10 in the Open Championship in four of the last seven years. Coming off three top-11 finishes, he regaining confidence in his swing and deserves shorter odds.

Justin Rose to win 80/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Victor Chandler
Originally shot to prominence with a 4th place finish as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 1998 and in his debut in this event last year, he finished 5th. It is also only two months since he was leading the Masters after two rounds and while his 3rd round took him out of contention that week, he has played in four PGA Tour events since and can boast finishes of 7th, 5th and 4th. Definitely worth an each-way punt at that price.

 

[veride]

Phil Mickelson --> 12/1 Stan James

...and from Victor Chandler :

Padraig Harrington --> 25/1
Retief Goosen --> 40/1
Kenny Perry --> 50/1
Chris DiMarco --> 66/1
Justin Rose --> 80/1
Ben Curtis --> 200/1

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Chris DiMarco to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ BetandWin [3pts]
Just a huge gulf between these two players and that is reflected in DiMarco's 9-1-0 h2h lead over Cejka in 2004. Total mismatch.

Jay Haas to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ Ladbrokes [3pts]
And again. Haas has a 7-1-1 h2h lead over Faxon in 2004. Faxon's highest finish in the U.S. Open since 1981 has been 33rd; Haas has beaten that mark on many occasions, including 4th around this course in 1995.

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ BetandWin
Not such a huge gulf between these players, but a marked one nonetheless. Singh delivered in the matchups last week as his form improved as expected and he should continue in the same vein this week. It is very hard to win an event the week before a major and contend, so this should be Garcia's 5th U.S. Open and the 4th time that he ahs finished behind Singh.

Retief Goosen to beat Adam Scott -135 @ Pinnacle
Two missed cuts in two U.S. Opens tell a story for Scott. Last week he ranked 75th (of the 80 players that made the cut) in driving accuracy and 70th in greens in regulation. He will have to raise the standard of his game enormously if he is to make his first cut. Should be straightforward for the outright selection.

Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -125 @ Paddy Power
By contrast, Perry has finished in the top-12 in his last three events, finished 3rd in this event last year and 8th around the links of Royal St. George's in the Open Championship last year. He has far more ability to control his game and could easily finish in the top-10 again this year.

Kenny Perry to beat Stewart Cink -137 @ SkyBet
This has been a very good season for Cink, but he is still the player that Perry is. He trails him 3-7-0 h2h this year and his finished behind him in each of the last two U.S. Opens. Should provide stiffer opposition than Cink, but he is still not a top-10 player this week.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Jim Furyk -111 @ BetandWin [4.5pts]
They say 'beware the injured golfer', but surely not in this match. Furyk has only just announced that he will try to play this week as defending champion - he would play nine holes each practice round at Shinnecock Hills before deciding whether he is strong enough to play on Thursday. He played his first full 18 holes on Wednesday since the surgery in March to repair torn cartilage in his left wrist and is clearly not fit enough for a Tour event and especially not the U.S. Open. "I'm not fooling myself. I'm not fooling anybody else," Furyk said. "I haven't played tournament golf in six months. I'll be grinding it out." If he weren't defending champion, he would not be playing and he could easily not complete the first round. Jacobson has a real chance of winning this week. They don't come more straightforward that this.

 

[yyz]

C. Campbell at 8-1 to finish in the top four.

 

[Stanley]

Further matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Carlos Franco -139 @ William Hill
Ames missed the cut last week, but having finished in the top-7 in his five previous events, it is probably a good thing that his run came to an end before a major. He did finished behind Franco, but it was only the second time in ten common events in 2004. Franco won the U.S. qualifier at Woodmont, but is far too erratic a driver to compete in the event itself.

Kenny Perry to beat Stewart Cink -114 @ Centrebet
Jumped in last night at -137 so have no hesitation in jumping in again at even better odds and no ties lose!

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Tim Clark -139 @ William Hill
Opposing another player who finished top in his U.S. Open qualifier. Clark then finished in the top-10 in the Buick Classic in the same week so he should be tired heading into this event. Even if not, though, Jacobson is still the far superior player and could easily finish as Europe's top player.

Nick Price to beat Brad Faxon -110 @ SIA
As already stated, Faxon's best finish since he first played in the U.S. Open in 1981 has been 33rd; Price has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years. In terms of 2004, Faxon has finished ahead of Price only once in eight common events.

Nick Price to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Pinnacle
Leonard has a much better record in the U.S. Open - he has finished in the top-20 in four of the last five years - but he is not playing particularly well at the moment. He has secured just one top-20 finish since January and so it is not surprise that Price holds a 6-0-2 h2h lead over him in 2004.

Charles Howell to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Centrebet
Immelman has a poor record on the PGA Tour and missed the cut in his only start in this event. Howell, for his part, is on a run of eight events where he alternates between a top-15 finish and a missed cut - he is due a top-15 finish this week. He should not need it to extend his 9-2-0 h2h lifetime lead over Immelman on this Tour.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sure do hate all the variables in this tourney with shaved greens and chance for rain. Will wait to get a look at it for most part but will go with a few initially since its the open.

to place @ 5 Dimes
Hass 20/1
N Price 17/1

72 Holes @ 5 Dimes
Leonard -110 over Howell

Will be curious to see how Tiger fairs--unbelievable he ranks outside top 100 in scrambling stats

 

[rrc]

Driving Accuracy:
Campbell 66.2%
Phil 64.6%
VJ 62.8%
Love 60.1%
Els 59.8%
Tiger 58.9%

Scrambling
Phil 66.2%
Els 65.7%
Love 64.9%
VJ 63.2%
Campbell 59.5%
Tiger 58.4%

Like Phil and Ernie both over Tiger this week.
Think Love hits it too high to battle the winds here.
Campbell...experience factor??
Vijay...lurking. If he putts ok he'll be right there.

Good luck to all.

 

[rrc]

1 unit each

Phil +129 ov VJ
Els +113 ov Tiger

Both at Pinny

 

[Stanley]

Further matchup plays (1.5pts):

Dudley Hart to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ WSEX
Always looking to oppose Baddeley. His best finish in the last three months (7 starts) is 50th, whereas Hart can count three top-4 finishes in that spell. Hart also has a much better U.S. Open, which is not surprising given Baddeley's wayward driving.

Brad Faxon to beat Michael Campbell -150 @ WSEX
Have opposed Faxon because of his poor U.S. Open record, but Campbell's prospects for this week are even worse. He has missed the last three cuts in the U.S. Open and on the PGA Tour, Faxon has a 13-1-0 h2h lead against him since the start of the 2003 season. This one should be decided by Friday night!

Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -195 @ Five Dimes
For all that Tiger has been in a slump, he still leads Garcia 6-3-0 h2h this year and that means parity at these odds. Add in the fact that Tiger did look like he was nearing his best last week, that Garcia has never finished ahead of him in four U.S. Opens and that Garcia is coming off a playoff win and there should be an edge even over these odds.

Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson -145 @ WSEX
Shorter odds, but more straightforward, particularly if the wind blows. Lefty is not a good wind player and has yet to even finish in the top-10 in the Open Championship on the links courses there. These two players are still nowhere near parity - Tiger on a bad day is many times better than Mickelson on a bad day - and on a links course, Tiger should win almost every time.

 

[lal2000]

Weekend Doubles - all at Bet365 or SkyBet

K Perry/Hutcheson
P Casey/Jeppson
B Estes/Lucquin
J Rose/Martin
S Cink/P Hanson
J Maggert/Salto
J Maggert/Hansen
Harrington/S Little
Verplank/S Walker
R Goosen/Nystrom
R Goosen/M Martin
Hart/Dyson
Weir/Branger
Els/Hutcheson
Mickelson/S Walker
Garcia/Delagrange

Good Luck

 

[Another Steve]

US Open Plays

US Open Plays

Outrights
Vijay Singh WINS U.S. OPEN+10.00
Retief Goosen WINS U.S. OPEN+35.00
Stephen Ames WINS U.S. OPEN+50.00

Going with my Usual Players. 2 Units on VJ and Ames. 1 Unit on Goosen


MatchUps
Ernie Els OV/Phil Mickelson-1.35
Retief Goosen OV/Adam Scott-1.60
Vijay Singh OV/Phil Mickelson-1.20
Stephen Ames OV/Stuart Appleby-1.45
Robert Allenby OV/Jerry Kelly-1.25
Kenny Perry OV/Kyoung-Ju Choi-1.25

Going with the stronger Players in these matches. This is my opinion but I have been on downside lately. Looking to turn it around.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Wonder what happened to all the 1st rd scor props they use to have everywhere? don't think they faired well in masters.

Will try a few props @ 5dimes

06/16/04 RICH BEEM WON'T MAKE 36 HOLE CUT -135
06/17/04 T.WOODS 1ST RND OV 71 -115
06/17/04 P.MICKELSON 1ST RND OV 72 -115
06/17/04 E.ELS 1ST RND OV 72 -105
06/17/04 V.SINGH 1ST RND OV 72 -115

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Verplank just stands out to me. Very good driver and GIR man. Scrambling very well which will be required this week. Good luck Scott.

Verplank 2u ew 66-1
ZJohnson .5u ew 125-1

Also took a bunch of CCampbell 49-1 on the interactives. Wanted more but denied!

GL

 

[caner]

PLAYING

D MARCO 65/1

VERPLANK 55/1

CINK 35/1


LETS GO USA

 

[Let's Have Fun]

Here's a stretch Nick Price @ 88-1.

 

[Whalers Rule]

MAinly going with straight hitters. Also read that MIke Weir had pnemonia last week and is still sick.

A few longshots to place only

Bowden 80-1
Stricker 80-1
Jones 80-1

Low ROW Tanaka 100-1

Small bets e.w

tanaka 250-1
M. Campbell 175-1