UFC 123: Rampage vs. Machida Saturday Nov 20th

[gardenweasel]

i honestly think jackson`s best days are behind him...his move from wolfslair back to the states indicates(at least to me) that he`s not as intent on getting the optimum training anymore.....

bottom line....rampage hits a lottery shot...or it`s death by a thousand cuts....or worse....

griiffin(oddly enough) laid out the template for finesse fighters to beat rampage...keep distance...move..pick your spots...frustrate him..kick the shit out of those legs early to soften him up...and put him on his back if possible late...

you don`t have to do all of this...just be careful about the wide shots early...particularly the left hook...

rampage looked much scarier in pride...he was fighting many other "balls-to-the-wall" type fighters...with wacky rules(soccer kicking of downed opponents etc)......and he`s tough to beat in a brawl...only the best can do it(prime rua and wanderlei).....

but this looks like a bad match-up for rampage...as was evans...

i`m just worried that he`ll run into something....i`d rather it go the distance...but i`ll take any type of machida win...

 

[gardenweasel]

not sure there`ll be a strkeforce thread(or whether there even should be)...

but this kid wilcox(ex-bodybuilder/high profile wrestler) is improving every time out...his stand-up looks better and better and he`s a decorated wrestler..

might make a small doggie play at around +220 and hope he can use his grappling to control ribeiro or keep it standing....

wilcox is on a roll...ribeiro,not so much...

very small,though...ribeiro could easily sub wicox.....

 

[The Sponge]

adding gerald harris inside the distance -125.....

i jumped on this earlier today as well as +150 for a ko, tko, or DQ. I don't know much about the other guy but some shitty film but this kid Harris looks to be the real deal.

 

[The Sponge]

i like Penn a lot also. Im not impressed with Hughes latest wins. Penn isn't gonna get caught like Hughes last opponent. Penn got beat by flat out speed or no conditioning. This is only three rounds, a hungry Penn, and a guy who has below average standup. Hopefully i can get this at a better price.

 

[ukgaz]

Not touching Machida against Rampage. Terrible match up for Jackson. Maybe interested in a prop

My Plays are

1 Unit on BJ. Hughes has looked good recently including a great win over RA but age is gonna catch up with him here

0.5 Unit Karo/ Davis parlay. Davis is an easy pick. Karo is an unknown in terms of where his head is. Skill wise he trumps Hallman. I was thinking of waiting until the weigh ins but decided to go for it


Considering

Lauzon. I think this could be a fight of the year contender. I really don't know who I favor but this is closer than the odds suggest

 

[The Sponge]

Considering

Lauzon. I think this could be a fight of the year contender. I really don't know who I favor but this is closer than the odds suggest

i kinda like this also a tad. Lauzon can't mess around and has to go on offense in this. No dicking around fighting defensively or he gets tied in a knot. He has a good offensive game if he isn't intimidated.

 

[layinwood]

Overall 44-28 +48.39 units

Opinion 15-16 +2.00 units


I'm oh so close to my +50 I want to be at by the end of the year.


BJ -155 1unit

I really was going to go very large on BJ in this fight. I've been waiting for it and had planned on hammering it but I have a set up rules for big bets and BJ fails so I just can't do it. One of my big things is heart or will power and in this fight I think Hughes has the bigger heart and will power. I still think BJ wins but all it will take for Hughes to win is two take downs in two different rounds. I'm tired of seeing guys fight with no worries off their back. Even though some of them are actually more aggressive and inflict more damage the judges just don't see it that way.

I'll be making a play on Karo and probably a pretty good size one. I worry about him having an anxiety attic before the fight and even if it's not a full blown attic even a little anxiety could have him too tight. I'll take my chances though since skill wise this isn't even close. Unless he looks horrible in the weigh then I'll be playing somewhere between 2 and 4 units on him.

 

[Coach_K]

Weigh ins live in about 15 minutes

 

[layinwood]

Damn, I hate watching weigh and I always say not to because it messes with your picks. The thing is half these guys are so drawn out they don't look good unless they're cut up in the first place. Saying that, Karo didn't look good at all. He's always been soft but today I thought he looked small and soft. BUT, he looked like he was happy to be there which has been what his problem was.

Just not sure what to do with him because I really think he wins it.

 

[Coach_K]

I agree Karo looked like sh t and I would wager against him if I could.

Rampage looked skinny, in good shape but skinnier with less muscle than usual. Will be interesting but I see Machida picking him apart.

 

[layinwood]

Coach, I was just going to post about Page looking skinny. His arms aren't near as thick as they use to be. It might do him some good though who knows. Everything in the world points to Machida winning but for some reason I have a feeling Rampage might pull something off. I might make a small wager on him but I'll admit it wouldn't be based on any sound handicapping. All of his weaknesses are Machida's strengths.

 

[Ghost Kid]

is any site replaying the weigh-in?

 

[gardenweasel]

is any site replaying the weigh-in?

edit..nix that...

google "ufc.com"... the link that has all the choices...as it comes up,the first screen is the weigh in...

 

[Ghost Kid]

edit..nix that...

google "ufc.com"... the link that has all the choices...as it comes up,the first screen is the weigh in...

:0074

 

[gardenweasel]

Overall 44-28 +48.39 units

Opinion 15-16 +2.00 units


I'm oh so close to my +50 I want to be at by the end of the year.


BJ -155 1unit

I really was going to go very large on BJ in this fight. I've been waiting for it and had planned on hammering it but I have a set up rules for big bets and BJ fails so I just can't do it. One of my big things is heart or will power and in this fight I think Hughes has the bigger heart and will power. I still think BJ wins but all it will take for Hughes to win is two take downs in two different rounds. I'm tired of seeing guys fight with no worries off their back. Even though some of them are actually more aggressive and inflict more damage the judges just don't see it that way.

I'll be making a play on Karo and probably a pretty good size one. I worry about him having an anxiety attic before the fight and even if it's not a full blown attic even a little anxiety could have him too tight. I'll take my chances though since skill wise this isn't even close. Unless he looks horrible in the weigh then I'll be playing somewhere between 2 and 4 units on him.

i wanted to bet penn...because hughes is definitely diminished.imo....

but...i read somewhere that penn is much like a bully... "when he is in front of the fight he is intense and loving every minute of it....but,once he can't dictate the match, like against gsp or edgar, he folds his tent and mentally checks out."....

i agree with this...the dude always seems to look "unmotivated" when he is losing.....but it`s not the reason he`s losing.... it`s because he IS losing.....

as is said,i was liking penn here...he has more left than hughes...hughes looks stiff as hell,imo...he was a tad lucky to land early vs almeida...but if penn gets put on his back,he may just "check out" again...:shrug:

 

[layinwood]

Adding

Penn -160 1unit(2units total now)
Karo -150 3units


Opinion

Rampage +205 (opinions always .5 unit)

I'm making Penn two total units because I've liked this fight since I found out about it and think Penn takes it by not getting taken down.

Karo IMO looked happy to be there and unless he was putting on a good show face that's all that matters. Even in his last fight when he was doped up on xanax as well as pain killers he one.(I think they overturned it) If you are having problems with anxiety you can't fake the smile and body language he had today.

Rampage-Well I'm taking him because I think if he can get his mits on Machida it might be interesting and I also like betting against Machida after getting blasted by Shogun. In all reality this is probably the dumbest pick I've made in a long time but I can't help it.

 

[ukgaz]

Damn, I hate watching weigh and I always say not to because it messes with your picks. The thing is half these guys are so drawn out they don't look good unless they're cut up in the first place. Saying that, Karo didn't look good at all. He's always been soft but today I thought he looked small and soft. BUT, he looked like he was happy to be there which has been what his problem was.

Just not sure what to do with him because I really think he wins it.

Karo just has the body weight/ style where he never looks good at the weigh ins from what I can recall in the past. He looks happy which is the main thing. Does he still have it? We will find out tomorrow

 

[ukgaz]

Maybe this will remind us of Karo's greatness. The greatest judo throw in MMA history against Sanchez

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k262/YeahBee/diego-sanchez_karo-parisyan_b.gif

 

[The Sponge]

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Video-UFC-123-Weigh-ins-28277

 

[Ghost Kid]

Gay

Gay

Hate it when friends fight.....pathetic.....