so basically commen sense says bet bader gotcha and the rest is up to the gambling gods :facepalm:
UFC 132: Cruz vs. Faber II, July 2nd, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Thread starter kickserv
- Start date
Yep.....that sums it up.........
In my mind, the best fight to bet on is the main event.
MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 40-79
Fighter vs. Fighter 275-429
Parlays 109-178
-6.91 Joe Rogans
Dominick Cruz beat Urijah Faber $1.74 (-135) *3 Joe Rogans:scared :scared
Parlay
--------------------------------------------
Matt Wiman
Dominick Cruz
Rafael dos Anjos
odds = $9.98 (+898) *0.75 Joe Rogan
In my mind, the best fight to bet on is the main event.
MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 40-79
Fighter vs. Fighter 275-429
Parlays 109-178
-6.91 Joe Rogans
Dominick Cruz beat Urijah Faber $1.74 (-135) *3 Joe Rogans:scared :scared
Parlay
--------------------------------------------
Matt Wiman
Dominick Cruz
Rafael dos Anjos
odds = $9.98 (+898) *0.75 Joe Rogan
there's a difference between ryan and stephanie boner
bader has a gas tank :142smilie
bonnar man, he got clay humped by an old man
Not everyone. Taking a guy who can't stop a takedown is not my cup of tea. As for Tito his big mouth gets him so much hate because if u look at his body of work in those last couple of losses, should he really be getting this much hate? I mean the guy had a split decision with a former champ Forrest. He had a draw with another former champ in Rashad. Is the only guy to put Machida in trouble until Shogun. Do i think the sport has passed him? Yes, but he doesn't deserve all this negative stuff. I hope Badar isn't coming in over confident or this might get risky. Thong Badar gas tank isn't that great but Tito's gas tank has always been overrated. The Hammel loss was bad but it still went to a decision.
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http://www.sherdog.com/videos/recent/Dos-Anjos-My-BJJ-is-Superior-to-Sotiropoulos-3122
I know he is a blackbelt but when a guy has a soft chin why play games and see if he can beat him on the ground :facepalm:
:00x31
I expect Bader to win, but I am on Tito.
Why you ask? The odds are way too high against a guy of Tito's ability. If Bader has issues with takedowns then Tito can take round one then just has to do enough to lay and pray the next to rounds.
Tito will lay and pray his ass off if it means he gets booed but wins.
Like Sponge said, Tito has not been losing to bums and I am still not convinced Bader is some badass as of yet.
Tito Ortiz (+450) for 30 wins 135.
I have lost more money on worse bets with worse odds than this one.
Coleman/Bonner comes to mind.
Im looking at Badar's record and really who has he fought that wrestles as good as Tito? Im not saying Tito is a great wrestler but Badar fought one guy who could wrestle and got manhandled by him. I have to think everyone Badar has fought doesn't wrestle as good as Tito. If this was an even fight i would go easily with Badar but man these odds are way to high to Risk Badar straight up.
Bader is going to destroy Tito, but who cares. No way u can bet or even parlay him at those odds.
i don`t begrudge anyone taking a flyer at any 4-1 doggie....but,is everybody aware that bader is the better wrestler?.......2 time all american at asu?...just making sure...:toast:
here`s what we have...
as i mentioned,i have numerous pars pending with a bader kicker...but stranger things have happened..
i played a small hedge on ortiz because it`s just too much money to leave out there on one fight....i`ll still take a serious hit if ortiz wins.....
-silva/leben ends itd-130...this opener didn`t look right to me....so i had to jump....i figured no way will it stay at -130...and i figured if i got cold feet,i could buy back...who knows....sometimes what seems like a logical play ends up shitting the bed....if they throw down,i think somebody goes to sleep...but,maybe they both fight cautious...would be unusual for both guys but again,stranger things have happened... long,long layoff for silva...and leben`s chin hasn`t looked as good as it used to...
bowles/mizugaki under 2.5 +135...was looking for an itd,but didn`t see one(undercard fight)...my rationale is that bowles finishes.... 9 out of 9...he`s deceptively quick and has sneaky subs...i think if faber could sub mitzugaki,bowles can....huge quickness difference,imo...
....................
fluff plays...all small action plays..
-small leben +155...long layoff for silva....and i noticed that the 3 lefties on silva`s resume all beat him(of course you could argue that they all were better than leben)..silva looked extremely drawn at the weigh-in,imo and chugged on that sports drink for almost a minute before stepping up for the stare down...
-very small dos anjos +190...i was hesitant about this...until i saw the weigh-in...i hate overreacting to one fight...sotiropoulos looked terrible vs siver...even though he`s fought at 170,he just looks weak in the octagon at times... he`s rail thin and just doesn`t present as a powerful guy in fights...
and those child bearing hips?...wtf?
dos anjos does present as a strong guy at 155...my problem is that the guy looks good,even dominating at times...yet finds a way to lose...he was doing very well against guida..pretty well against tyson griffin...and was even with stephens late...but still figured a way to lose all of em...i don`t think he finishes fights very well...he fades......still,those odds warrant a very small wager....this should go the distance...
-wiman +110 very small....tough guy...needs to use some wrestling here...siver is a very physical guy and those spinning back kicks are killers...still,wiman is a grinder and has been looking better and better....maybe siver `s underestimating wiman after the sotiropoulos upset?...
-condit wins in rd 3 very small+1280...condit never quits...even if stun gun lays on him for 2 rounds,condit has shown he can come back and win...and as we`ve seen,stun gun has cardio issues..
-guillard/bowles/simpson/njokuani parlay at 3-1...all iffy fights...i think all "could lose"(guillard could easily get caught in a guillotine...he gets full of himself and loses focus)....but i think they all should win...njokuani /winner is a toss-up...i.....but it`s a way to have some action on the undercard without overextending... very,very small...like bowles the most...
-roller via submission +425 very small....always worried about guillard`s head when he seems like he`s at the top of his game...he was acting like an ass at the weigh-in...typical front runner..
-bowles quickest k.o. +1200...very small...quick starter and mizugaki`s been dropped before...
want to bet condit but he`s had too many problems with strong grapplers...
waffling on cruz....
really need bader.... and the itd prop on silva/leben would be nice...the rest are just fluff...
g.l............dudes:lol:
here`s what we have...
as i mentioned,i have numerous pars pending with a bader kicker...but stranger things have happened..
i played a small hedge on ortiz because it`s just too much money to leave out there on one fight....i`ll still take a serious hit if ortiz wins.....
-silva/leben ends itd-130...this opener didn`t look right to me....so i had to jump....i figured no way will it stay at -130...and i figured if i got cold feet,i could buy back...who knows....sometimes what seems like a logical play ends up shitting the bed....if they throw down,i think somebody goes to sleep...but,maybe they both fight cautious...would be unusual for both guys but again,stranger things have happened... long,long layoff for silva...and leben`s chin hasn`t looked as good as it used to...
bowles/mizugaki under 2.5 +135...was looking for an itd,but didn`t see one(undercard fight)...my rationale is that bowles finishes.... 9 out of 9...he`s deceptively quick and has sneaky subs...i think if faber could sub mitzugaki,bowles can....huge quickness difference,imo...
....................
fluff plays...all small action plays..
-small leben +155...long layoff for silva....and i noticed that the 3 lefties on silva`s resume all beat him(of course you could argue that they all were better than leben)..silva looked extremely drawn at the weigh-in,imo and chugged on that sports drink for almost a minute before stepping up for the stare down...
-very small dos anjos +190...i was hesitant about this...until i saw the weigh-in...i hate overreacting to one fight...sotiropoulos looked terrible vs siver...even though he`s fought at 170,he just looks weak in the octagon at times... he`s rail thin and just doesn`t present as a powerful guy in fights...
and those child bearing hips?...wtf?
dos anjos does present as a strong guy at 155...my problem is that the guy looks good,even dominating at times...yet finds a way to lose...he was doing very well against guida..pretty well against tyson griffin...and was even with stephens late...but still figured a way to lose all of em...i don`t think he finishes fights very well...he fades......still,those odds warrant a very small wager....this should go the distance...
-wiman +110 very small....tough guy...needs to use some wrestling here...siver is a very physical guy and those spinning back kicks are killers...still,wiman is a grinder and has been looking better and better....maybe siver `s underestimating wiman after the sotiropoulos upset?...
-condit wins in rd 3 very small+1280...condit never quits...even if stun gun lays on him for 2 rounds,condit has shown he can come back and win...and as we`ve seen,stun gun has cardio issues..
-guillard/bowles/simpson/njokuani parlay at 3-1...all iffy fights...i think all "could lose"(guillard could easily get caught in a guillotine...he gets full of himself and loses focus)....but i think they all should win...njokuani /winner is a toss-up...i.....but it`s a way to have some action on the undercard without overextending... very,very small...like bowles the most...
-roller via submission +425 very small....always worried about guillard`s head when he seems like he`s at the top of his game...he was acting like an ass at the weigh-in...typical front runner..
-bowles quickest k.o. +1200...very small...quick starter and mizugaki`s been dropped before...
want to bet condit but he`s had too many problems with strong grapplers...
waffling on cruz....
really need bader.... and the itd prop on silva/leben would be nice...the rest are just fluff...
g.l............dudes:lol:
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Won't be betting but I think this card is an underdogs paradise.
My opinion from best to worst-
Mizugaki to beat Bowles at +305.
Mizugaki is an underrated beast who gives most guy's trouble.
Roller to beat Guillard at +235.
Roller has the wrestling to take Guillard down and pound his arse or sub him.
Dos Anjos to beat Sop at +200.
Dos is a pain in the arse to bet on as he is usually winning a fight when he loses. He was beating the piss out of Stevens until the third round and beat the piss out of Guida in the first and gave up after breaking his jaw in the second.
He kicked the shit out of Rob Emerson, who was suppsed to be the superior striker. Dos Anjos has killer leg kicks and a good ground game. I remember watching a video of Sop getting his arse handed to him grappling at 10th planet against an unknown so he is not a grappling God, although he is good.
Faber to beat Cruz at +150.
Cruz is no Aldo. He is a vastly improved fighter from their first fight but over 5 rounds, Faber could catch him in a sub.
The only favourite I think will win easily is Simpson to beat Tavares at -235. A-Train will roll.
All other favourites have a shot including Tito at +450.
He outwrestled Matyushenko, although it was many moons ago, on paper, Mat should have wiped the floor with Tito wrestling.
Leben no longer has an Iron chin but it is better than Silva's these day's so he has a shot at +162.
Winner is a better all rounder than Njokuani at +130.
Condit has a chance against anyone at +110 but I expect Stun Gun to ground him and stifle him to a judges decision.
Wiman vs Siver is a toss up. I loved Wiman at +145 but would stay away now.
Good luck all :toast: :toast:
My opinion from best to worst-
Mizugaki to beat Bowles at +305.
Mizugaki is an underrated beast who gives most guy's trouble.
Roller to beat Guillard at +235.
Roller has the wrestling to take Guillard down and pound his arse or sub him.
Dos Anjos to beat Sop at +200.
Dos is a pain in the arse to bet on as he is usually winning a fight when he loses. He was beating the piss out of Stevens until the third round and beat the piss out of Guida in the first and gave up after breaking his jaw in the second.
He kicked the shit out of Rob Emerson, who was suppsed to be the superior striker. Dos Anjos has killer leg kicks and a good ground game. I remember watching a video of Sop getting his arse handed to him grappling at 10th planet against an unknown so he is not a grappling God, although he is good.
Faber to beat Cruz at +150.
Cruz is no Aldo. He is a vastly improved fighter from their first fight but over 5 rounds, Faber could catch him in a sub.
The only favourite I think will win easily is Simpson to beat Tavares at -235. A-Train will roll.
All other favourites have a shot including Tito at +450.
He outwrestled Matyushenko, although it was many moons ago, on paper, Mat should have wiped the floor with Tito wrestling.
Leben no longer has an Iron chin but it is better than Silva's these day's so he has a shot at +162.
Winner is a better all rounder than Njokuani at +130.
Condit has a chance against anyone at +110 but I expect Stun Gun to ground him and stifle him to a judges decision.
Wiman vs Siver is a toss up. I loved Wiman at +145 but would stay away now.
Good luck all :toast: :toast:
MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 40-79
Fighter vs. Fighter 275-429
Parlays 109-178
-6.91 Joe Rogans
Dominick Cruz beat Urijah Faber $1.74 (-135) *3 Joe Rogans
Tito Ortiz beat Ryan Bader $5.80 (+480) *half Joe Rogan
Parlay #1
--------------------------------------------
Matt Wiman
Dominick Cruz
Rafael dos Anjos
odds = $9.98 (+898) *0.75 Joe Rogan
Parlay #2
----------------------------------------------
Matt Wiman
Dominick Cruz
odds = $3.22 (+222) *2 Joe Rogans
Parlay #3
--------------------------------------------
Melvin Guillard
Dong-Hyun Kim
Aaron Simpson
Donny Walker
Matt Wiman
Wanderlei Silva
odds = $14.49 (+1349) *half Joe Rogan
Parlay #4
------------------------------------------
Melvin Guillard
Dong-Hyun Kim
Aaron Simpson
Donny Walker
Matt Wiman
Wanderlei Silva
Rafael dos Anjos
odds = $41.98 (+4098) *half Joe Rogan
Parlay #5
------------------------------------------
Melvin Guillard
Dong-Hyun Kim
Aaron Simpson
Donny Walker
Wanderlei Silva
Tito Ortiz
odds = $41.79 (+4079) *0.25 Joe Rogan
And I'll say it again........Faber is going to get toyed with
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 40-79
Fighter vs. Fighter 275-429
Parlays 109-178
-6.91 Joe Rogans
Dominick Cruz beat Urijah Faber $1.74 (-135) *3 Joe Rogans
Tito Ortiz beat Ryan Bader $5.80 (+480) *half Joe Rogan
Parlay #1
--------------------------------------------
Matt Wiman
Dominick Cruz
Rafael dos Anjos
odds = $9.98 (+898) *0.75 Joe Rogan
Parlay #2
----------------------------------------------
Matt Wiman
Dominick Cruz
odds = $3.22 (+222) *2 Joe Rogans
Parlay #3
--------------------------------------------
Melvin Guillard
Dong-Hyun Kim
Aaron Simpson
Donny Walker
Matt Wiman
Wanderlei Silva
odds = $14.49 (+1349) *half Joe Rogan
Parlay #4
------------------------------------------
Melvin Guillard
Dong-Hyun Kim
Aaron Simpson
Donny Walker
Matt Wiman
Wanderlei Silva
Rafael dos Anjos
odds = $41.98 (+4098) *half Joe Rogan
Parlay #5
------------------------------------------
Melvin Guillard
Dong-Hyun Kim
Aaron Simpson
Donny Walker
Wanderlei Silva
Tito Ortiz
odds = $41.79 (+4079) *0.25 Joe Rogan
And I'll say it again........Faber is going to get toyed with
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1ST MMA PLAYS FOR ME....BEEN FOLLOWING SPORT FOR AWHILE...GONNA TRY A COUPLE PLAYS TONITE....ENJOY THE CARD GUYS..
FABER+150
SILVA-185
ORTIZ+450
GLUCK ALL BURGH....
FABER+150
SILVA-185
ORTIZ+450
GLUCK ALL BURGH....
