My thoughts on this card.
Edgar/Maynard. When Frankie lost the first fight he made great adjustments. I see guys saying Maynard can take him down. Yes the first fight not the second fight. It was Frankie that was doing all the taking down. Does Frankie make more adjustments this fight? I thought Frankie won that second fight but a draw was fair. Maynard looks so hungry but Frankie will give anyone fits. My whole problem with Frankie is his back injury. Will this flare up or will they have it under control? In a fight like this i might take Maynard just because these guys are so even and the back issues don't help Frankie at all. Six Five how does Frankie pass a roid test when he said he had an epidural? Are their different kinds besides the steroid shot?
Aldo/Florian. I just watched
Aldo's last fight and saw a fight to me that was a lot different then when i watched it the first time. I don't know where Weasel got that Hominic boxed Aldo's ears off from. Aldo floored Mark two or three times. I always thought Aldo's boxing was his Achilles heel but after watching that fight again not so much. Marc has very good hands and i never saw Aldo in trouble once. I have a new appreciation for Aldo's boxing skills and he has a solid chin. His head movement impressed me the most. Kenny's boxing has improved greatly and Kenny is a smart fighter but i just can't take him here. I will just sit back and watch this one. As for Aldo gassing against Hominic. I thought that also after viewing the fight the first time, but after watching it again i don't believe this is accurate. Aldo basically took off round five but when he got up he wasn't exhausted as Rogan and Goldie wanted us to believe. Heck he even did ten pushups after the fight to mimic Hominic. If u are exhausted that is the last thing u think of doing.
Pettis/Stevens nobody has dominated Stevens in the boxing realm of this sport. I don't think Pettis has better hands but his quick Ju jitz is what will probably kill Stevens. This looks like a great great fight. Guillard the person everyone thinks is the greatest boxer in the sport, ran from Stevens. Yes he did out box him but not by that much. He ran the entire fight. Stevens can win this but i think Pettis athleticism will be to much for Stevens.
Stann/Sonnen. Stann will have his moments but once Chael is on top of him it is over. I know Stann has improved but have we seen it against a guy who can take anybody down? Stann looked brutal against Davis. Learning how to stop those pressure takedowns takes more than a year to learn. Mia should run right thru Santiago but man a lot of these Brazilians have glass jaws so i will pass. Great, great card.
Gulliard/luzon fight. You beat Gulliard by fighting smart and nobody is fighting him smart nowaday's. You wear him out a little and then u capitalize on his mistakes. One of these day's somebody is gonna knock Melvins head into the third row. He is just getting to cocky with his boxing. Joey isn't the guy. The whole game plan should be to get Melvin down. That should have been the game plan in Melvin's last fight but the wrestler wanted to bang. Joey could win this but does he have a good game plan? Who knows with these fighters. This could be another fight where the losing fighter say's "i should have stuck to the gameplan".
aldo was the heavier puncher of the two....but hominick clearly outstruck aldo,particularly toward the end of the fight...he just doesn`t have much power..
as for his stamina,i think the guy has issues...he hasn`t been in all that many difficult fights..he sustained a good deal of damage vs hominick..he`s not used to that....he took no damage vs faber..... .
you don`t lay on your back taking punishment in the 5th because you enjoy iit.....it happens because your opponent(hominick) put you on your ass and you couldn`t stop it(unless your name is maia or sass)......
there are other indicators that aldo has had stamina issues...
"Aldo rebounded in his next fight against the then-undefeated Thiago "Minu" Meller at Gold Fighters Championship I on May 20, 2006, winning a majority decision in a very close fight. Round one could have gone either way, with Aldo getting two takedowns (both times getting into half-guard) and cutting Meller's right eyebrow with a left hand; while Meller went for two armbars, nearly hyper-extending Aldo's right arm in the first attempt before Aldo was able to escape. Aldo won a lackluster round two, again taking Meller down and landing some hammerfists. A seemingly exhausted Aldo stalled against the ropes much of the third round, holding Meller in the clinch. Both landed some solid strikes in the few exchanges there were in the round.[9][10][11]"
yeah, he was young.....still,i don`t believe that you can turn stamina on and off...i think it`s genetic...you can tweek it...but some guys are better than others...like jumping ability or quickness/speed...or intelligence.....
i`m not saying for sure that aldo has serious stamina issues...just saying that i think it`s a question that hasn`t been definitively answered...
aldo is a prohibitive favorite here...and from what i`ve been reading,this is a foregone conclusion...i don`t think it is...i think that if it goes to the ground...or if it gets into the latter rounds,that florian presents a real danger given his length and grappling/sub ability... this will be his second weight cut at 145....should be a little easier...
aldo may stop florian early...but if he doesn`t,i think florian will be much more dangerous late than hominick was....
waiting for a +300....i`ll take the shot is it`s available....probably take a shot at less...
