UFC 136: "Edgar vs. Maynard III", Oct. 8th, Houston, Texas
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after watching the weigh-in....and re-watching florian in his 145 debut vs nunes....i`ve decided that i think 145 is too much for florian...he looked like a f-cking walking stick and said cutting to 145 was the hardest think he`s done in mma...
even though i was encouraged by hominick`s 5th round performance and aldo`s exhaustion in their fight,the fact remains that this weight cut is probably harder on florian than it is on aldo...so i may not get any benefit from a long fight,as i initially had hoped...
-gray maynard+135...decent sized play...i think maynard learned more from fight 2 than edgar....i really think he`ll impose his size and wrestling here..i don`t see him letting edgar play paulie malignaggi with him this time around....i make the play with trepidation as i`m a big edgar admirer...
-sonnen/guillard par laying 2 to win 1.8....i`d be shocked if sonnen loses here...a guy that took okami/marquardt and silva down(and pretty much kept them there) should do the same to stann...stann`s come a long way,but you can`t replicate sonnen`s lifetime of wrestling/grappling in preparation for this fight...
reduce it a tad with a lauzon via sub hedge at a generous +550...i see it as joe`s only shot here...
-phan/ronnie mann(bellator) parlay laying 2 to win 1.8.... a wager against garcia...not on phan....had this originally at around -125/130.....but it was cancelled...and lost value...phan could ph-ck this up by being ridiculously frugal with his punch output again....he couldn`t miss garcia the first time around...but lost because garcia threw puches in bunches...very few landed,but in the land of the ufc,that doesn`t mean diddly...just come forward...throw punches...you can miss em all,but you`ll still get rewarded(see garcia`s prior undeserved split decision wins)......
-have sonnen/phan/pettis and simpson in a few other smaller pars....i never got much of a hard-on for simpson...just think the guy is flawed...but i`m still using him....so many smart players love the guy,so i`ll play sheep on simpson and reduce the damage by parring him......lotta love for stephens...but he`s so raw..looking at a possible stephens itd at +262 play as a small hedge....k.o. looks like stephens only way to the "w' here,imo
liked quite a few dogs on the last card...with the exception of maynard,not feeling many for 136...
still looking at zhang/elkins and massenzio/cantwell...
love this card....one of the best in recent memory...maynard-edgar/phan-garcia/stephens-pettis have obvious fotn potential...
btw,also small plays on santos+145 and lozano+100(a real toss-up fight) in bel
lator...
another solid card...
g.l. to everyone...hope we have a solid wwekend...
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even though i was encouraged by hominick`s 5th round performance and aldo`s exhaustion in their fight,the fact remains that this weight cut is probably harder on florian than it is on aldo...so i may not get any benefit from a long fight,as i initially had hoped...
-gray maynard+135...decent sized play...i think maynard learned more from fight 2 than edgar....i really think he`ll impose his size and wrestling here..i don`t see him letting edgar play paulie malignaggi with him this time around....i make the play with trepidation as i`m a big edgar admirer...
-sonnen/guillard par laying 2 to win 1.8....i`d be shocked if sonnen loses here...a guy that took okami/marquardt and silva down(and pretty much kept them there) should do the same to stann...stann`s come a long way,but you can`t replicate sonnen`s lifetime of wrestling/grappling in preparation for this fight...
reduce it a tad with a lauzon via sub hedge at a generous +550...i see it as joe`s only shot here...
-phan/ronnie mann(bellator) parlay laying 2 to win 1.8.... a wager against garcia...not on phan....had this originally at around -125/130.....but it was cancelled...and lost value...phan could ph-ck this up by being ridiculously frugal with his punch output again....he couldn`t miss garcia the first time around...but lost because garcia threw puches in bunches...very few landed,but in the land of the ufc,that doesn`t mean diddly...just come forward...throw punches...you can miss em all,but you`ll still get rewarded(see garcia`s prior undeserved split decision wins)......
-have sonnen/phan/pettis and simpson in a few other smaller pars....i never got much of a hard-on for simpson...just think the guy is flawed...but i`m still using him....so many smart players love the guy,so i`ll play sheep on simpson and reduce the damage by parring him......lotta love for stephens...but he`s so raw..looking at a possible stephens itd at +262 play as a small hedge....k.o. looks like stephens only way to the "w' here,imo
liked quite a few dogs on the last card...with the exception of maynard,not feeling many for 136...
still looking at zhang/elkins and massenzio/cantwell...
love this card....one of the best in recent memory...maynard-edgar/phan-garcia/stephens-pettis have obvious fotn potential...
btw,also small plays on santos+145 and lozano+100(a real toss-up fight) in bel
lator...
another solid card...
g.l. to everyone...hope we have a solid wwekend...
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Florian :facepalm:
Why do they keep feeding this guy title fights? Because he's educated? Because he speaks well? He's going to get tooled and demolished like any other time he fights an elite fighter.
KENNY FLORIAN IS NOT AN ELITE FIGHTER
Why do they keep feeding this guy title fights? Because he's educated? Because he speaks well? He's going to get tooled and demolished like any other time he fights an elite fighter.
KENNY FLORIAN IS NOT AN ELITE FIGHTER
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When Kenny fought Penn he had a clear gameplan, which was the exact same one GSP had when he fought Penn. Kenny actually followed it pretty well but he couldn't pull it off because he didn't have the size/strength advantage that GSP did, which is why the drop in weight.
I think he will have the exact same plan for this fight (press him up against the cage, look for takedowns and basically wear him out through manhumping), but find more success because of the size of aldo.
The clinch will be crucial as Kenny can deliver some serious damage with his elbows if the is able to force aldo against the cage, and having to carry his weight could very well tire out aldo.
I agree here totally. Kenny's plan is going to be to wear Aldo down, and if he wins this fight ITD it will be in the 3rd/4th/5th rounds. The odds have reached a crescendo and it's just too much value for me to pass up. I'm a firm believer that if kenny can implement his game plan, he will give aldo serious problems. It seems the UFC believes he can perform as well, giving him the title fight he asked for right away.
I have some of kenny straight up, by dec at +647 but the big value is in the round props, IMO.
RD 3 +2400
RD 4 +3400
RD 5 +4700
:scared
Yeah for the Penn fight he was training with GSP. I suspected he would go with one of two gameplans for that fight. 1) try to emulate GSP which I did not think was the likely gameplan or 2) Stay on the outside and throw kicks to legs and body which I thought WOULD be his gameplan.
For this fight the gameplan must be clear. Clinch for 3 rounds then try to take it to the ground in the 4th and 5th
and you all think Kenny's cardio will be ok because? he's not going to have some huge size advantage. hell, if you look at the weigh-ins, Aldo looked like the thicker guy, Kenny was just taller.
the weigh-in was part of the reason i`m backing off florian.....i have to say that +300 is tempting,though....
this sounds crazy,but i like to look at the guys` heads..:lol: ...seriously.....i really believe that tells you who the bigger guy truly is....maynard`s head dwarfed edgar`s....and kenny`s was much bigger than aldo`s....how`s that for voodoo logic...:facepalm:
i just think that the weight cut was so tough....but that notwithstanding,i think florian`s problem dropping this far will be lack of quickness...
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The size differential between aldo and kenny's other opponents is pretty significant. BJ/maynard ect. are a lot bigger than aldo, and kenny is roughly the same size as he was at 155, just cuts more. Thats why the drop in weight, kenny was small even at 155, but we will be relatively big at 145. I believe the difference will be more pronounced once kenny has rehydrated.
Has his cardio ever been in question :shrug: I think that is a concern with aldo in this fight.
BTW, where have you been bucs :shrug: I'm surprised you can get a post in without kick getting up in here, haha.
Where bucs has been.
As you can see bucs is a real winner:142smilie
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=456113
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=454909
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I wouldn't be so hard on bucs. I think at one point we have all had to go underground due to a 50$ fantasy football check bouncing, no?
I've never had a check bounce in my life. Secondly, the fantasy football league was $150 and I sent CASH. Which he received by the way
Yep, reminded once again, so many clueless people around here.
The fact that you took time to find threads, post links, and waste energy shows how much of a low life loser you are.
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