Belfort is so tempting to me. I just wish I could see him spar and what his body looks like. If his hands are still quick like they've always been then I think he beats Weidman because I think he can keep it standing. It won't be a big play but if he looks good at weigh ins I'll take him. I like the odds.
Cormier and Johnson is one of the hardest picks ever for a main card fight. I think someone could make a valid argument as to several different outcomes. The one I think is most valid is Cormier just grinding him down for 5 rounds and winning ugly.
I initially thought that cormier would be a much tougher nut to crack for Johnson than john jones would have been(stylistically)....much like the Frankie edgar play(but to a much lesser extent),I`ve used cormier in a par or two as a kicker(with edgar) but I`m not feeling quite as certain as I did with edgar...matter of fact,as the fight draws closer, I`m glad I`ve tread a bit lightly....
although I believe that cormier will take johnson down,i`m not as confident he`ll keep him there...I think cormier has solid stand-up but if he`s forced to stand with Johnson before he`s able to take him down and soften him up/tire him out a bit,he`s probably not winning...
there was a time when I would have picked cormier here in a heartbeat(and totally gone all in on him at these odds,which are still dropping...Johnson may actually be the fave by post time)...Johnson is still one -dimensional regardless of his wrestling background(which he uses almost exclusively as a means to keep the fight standing)......but given Johnson`s confidence and Cormier's last fight being his first defeat,the mental advantage has to be with Johnson....
Johnson is so confident...if you watch the hour long pre-fight promo show,they show him walking into the ring before his fight in Sweden vs gustafsson.....the look on his face was such a tell(I`ve never seen a guy look so confident going into the lion`s den)....you could see he was absolutely confident he would win....and on the pre-fight show,i sensed some doubt and an unusually strong respect for Johnson from the usually disdainful and uber-confident cormier....that loss to jones seems to have affected cormier`s confidence(at least that`s how I`m reading it)....
I really saw this as a primo wagering opportunity...I think cormier is easily a top 3 or 4 pfp guy and all around better than Johnson......he`s handled some top heavyweights so easily that it was almost ridiculous...it`s hard to remember a fight (pre-jones) in which he struggled even a little... he`s always looked in total control.....he`s that good...even his his stand-up,used in conjuncction with the threat of his takedowns,is outstanding now....
but I`m sensing that the jones fight may have affected his confidence....and that has me balking....
I`m going to watch these odds...if the pendulum swings too far toward Johnson,i may take another look....ufc.com has 64% favoring Johnson....
http://www.ufc.com/fantasy?utm_camp...m=Gplus:+UFC+-+Ultimate+Fighting+Championship
one more thing...if iohnson wins this,i`m not sure it`s very likely that it would be by decision....he won`t out-grapple cormier.....and given how his style has morphed into every fight becoming a" search and destroy" mission and his natural height and reach advantage,hard to figure Johnson just boxing and kicking his way to a decision....it`s not in his nature....he seems to throw everything with bad intentions and it`s hard to see him not eventually hurting a shorter guy in a 5 round stand-up fight......maybe I`m getting too far in the weeds here...that usually gets me in trouble...fortunately,there isn`t enough daylight between johnson wins(+115) and Johnson itd(+180) to make it tempting to get too specific.....
really wasn`t sold on Johnson,but the gustafsson fight and his extreme confidence has me rethinking...
