US OPEN

[Chip Hilton]

Any early thoughts on the US Open?

Do you think you can grab value early on the outrights or is it better to see how the St Jude Classic pans out?

Then again, with Tiger, it may be academic.

I think Tiger is passing on the St Jude but Phil will be back.

Any thoughts on how lefty will do this week...and next?

 

[joz]

Well for sure I won't be taking Phil this week. Not because of what hes been thru, but the last time i took him before a major a few years back, he completely went thru the motions, practiced shots he would be trying to pull off the next week, and missed the cut :mj07: :mj07:

As for the US Open I like Casey, Ogilvy, Stenson(altho he has been terrible after the players), and of course Tiger:0corn

 

[Chip Hilton]

Same three!

Same three!

As for the US Open I like Casey, Ogilvy, Stenson(altho he has been terrible after the players), and of course Tiger:0corn

I'll pass on the odds for Tiger, although I did have him last week. I think the odds will be even lower for the major...and therefore to low for me.

That being said, three of the players I listed that could defeat Tiger and Phil and win the Open were also Casey, Ogilvy and Stenson. Guess we are thinking on the same page.

Love the odds on Stenson but you are so right with his play since the Players. I actually have hit two of the weeks since then with nice paying underdogs on the European tour by fading Stenson but I never thought he'd slide as much as he has. However, the talent is there and he certainly is capable but the recent form scares me. I was thinking of him this week too but maybe he needs to show he's righted the ship before I jump on him.

Casey and Ogilvy are certainly two of the favorites after the Big two that you would consider. Casey is coming off a win over seas a couple of weeks ago so he is setting up nicely. Just was a bit surprised Geoff didn't follow up his monster round three last week with a solid final round. However, it was mostly due to a terrible eight on the par 4 14th hole that erased him.

Two others with a bit higher and more tempting odds that I'm looking at are Rory McIlroy and Steve Stricker. I get the feeling McIlroy is going to smoke a field Tiger style soon. Maybe not the Open but he's getting close. Stricker is off his win two weeks ago and is in good form to contend.

I thought I was going to be riding Sean O'Hair for a while but he's been killing me lately and hate his withdrawal last week after one round. Still not sure why he withdrew but never a good sign. Love the guys prior consistency though and I know I'll gravitate back to him in no time.

Finally, two longstots in the 100:1 range that caught my eye were KJ Choi and Ryuji Imada.

 

[BOBBYW]

HEY CHIP WHAT ABOUT GOOSEN.....HAVING A NICE YR COMPARED TO LAST YR.....

 

[Chip Hilton]

Retief

Retief

HEY CHIP WHAT ABOUT GOOSEN.....HAVING A NICE YR COMPARED TO LAST YR.....

Bobbyw -- you are correct, Retief Goosen is definetely having a better year than last year and as such, for the most part, he has been costing me some money, lol.

I really thought we were seeing the downside of Goosen and Ernie Els but both still seem to be hanging in there. In fact, unfortunetely for me, Els is coming off a very nice week...and cost me some coin. I faded him a few times and he made me pay.

As for Goosen, his play and reputation have lowered his odds enough that there doesn't seem to be much value for me. I try to make my own odds for most players and then see where they come out when the odds are actually released. I do it early in the week for most tournaments and try to do it at least a week or two early for the four majors.

I put Retief Goosen in the 35 to 40 to one range and I'm seeing him come out at between 28 and 33 to one. Not bad, but no sign of value to me. In fact, much to close to his odds this week of 24 to 26 to one in the Tiger-less St Jude. Although I think the books weigh the veteran players more heavily in the majors and rightfully so, but sometimes to a fault in my opinion.

Plus, I play my outrights to win only and not "each way" so while he is a player that I could see contend for the top 5 or top 10, I would be much more surprised to see him take the Open outright.

Good luck.

 

[DerrickTulips]

Mick out at Bethpage today..:0corn

Anyway, ill have my picks later.. need to get back in the swing of things

 

[Ghost Kid]

US OPEN
Tiger to win +185
Field -225

I'm not a golf guy, but isn't that pretty decent odds on EVERYBODY ELSE?

Again, I'm no expert here. Would love to hear some of the golf cappers feedback.
:toast:

 

[DerrickTulips]

Betting against Tiger is one of the scariest things you can possibly do. Enjoy watching him chip in, make 30 foot bombs, and hit miracle recovery shots. :0corn

 

[Chip Hilton]

Field

Field

I would prefer the field in that particular bet at those odds and those odds do appear to be sticking at this point. However, any bets I make against Tiger are usually for minimal amounts.

I think an outsider would look at that bet and say I've got EVERYONE else to win and laying just a bit over 2 to 1, how can I pass it up. However it just isn't that easy. The man is amazing.

I'm going to take a couple of shots to beat him with individual players where I can pick up nice odds or possible overlays. Last week, I hedged with him by playing him to cover and taking some shots with others. That was at 3:1 and without Phil and some others. Next week the odds are even lower and everyone is entered for the major but we all know the majors are the type of events that superstars want to shine at, particulary Tiger.

In my opinion, the +170 to +200 is just too low for me to even hedge with. As far as your suggested play, I like it but SMALL.

 

[DerrickTulips]

Ok Lets hear everyone's top 5.. You can include Tiger

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Steve Stricker(40/1) e.w.
Thomas Levet(200/1) e.w.
Ernie Els(50/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(14/1) e.w.
Tiger Woods(+175) Win Only

GL

 

[Mastermind Law]

1: Cink
2: McLlroy
3: Watney
4: Woods
5: Stenson

 

[DerrickTulips]

Everyone talks about it being a bombers course..
http://golf.about.com/library/weekly/bl2002usopen.htm

Tiger Woods, $1,000,000 67-68-70-72--277
Phil Mickelson, $585,000 70-73-67-70--280
Jeff Maggert, $362,356 69-73-68-72--282
Sergio Garcia, $252,546 68-74-67-74--283
Nick Faldo, $182,882 70-76-66-73--285
Scott Hoch, $182,882 71-75-70-69--285
Billy Mayfair, $182,882 69-74-68-74--285
Tom Byrum, $138,669 72-72-70-72--286
Padraig Harrington, $138,669 70-68-73-75--286
Nick Price, $138,669 72-75-69-70--286

Not really bombers..

 

[BOBBYW]

1.....MICK
2.....GOOSE
3.....GEOFF
4.....ELS
5.....TIGER

AND MY OUTRIGHT FROM A POSTER AT ANOTHER SITE WHO I FOLLOW.....ROMERO-200/1

MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER PLAY BUT IT WON'T BE FROM MY T5.....

 

[CWood97]

Really like Ogilvy and Toms this week.

 

[DerrickTulips]

Here is an enjoyable read.. especially for Another Steve

 

[DerrickTulips]

Here is my top 10..
I reserve the right to change it :mj07:

1. Tiger
2. Toms
3. Zach Johnson
4. Casey
5. Stricker
6. Ogilvy
7. Perry
8. Watney
9. Furyk
10. Cabrera

 

[DerrickTulips]

There are 2 matchups that i absolutely love.. :00hour You guys will as well.:toast:

 

[DerrickTulips]

Kevin Sutherland -145 over Brandt Snedeker (72 holes)

Kevin 2 great events in a row.. did well here in 02

 

[DerrickTulips]

Here ladies

?Damaged intercostal muscles (that run between the ribs and help form and move the chest wall)? threaten to ground Jeev Milkha Singh's campaign at the US Open next week.

Stating this in his blog, the world No. 34 wrote: ?I seem to have damaged them during the final day of the European Open (May 28-31 in Kent). Must have been some shot I hit from the rough. It started paining the day after the tournament, but a couple of painkillers made it possible for me to play the first three days.

?On the final day, however, the pain was unbearable and I somehow managed to go around the 18 holes.

?This really puts a spanner in my plans. I was looking forward to playing the US Open at Bethpage State Park, the venue where I played my first Major ? the 2002 US Open. I was hoping to put in a couple of practice rounds before the actual week started, but that looks extremely doubtful now. As things stand, I am having an MRI scan done in the States and depending on the results and the doctor's advice, I will take a decision whether to play the tournament on Saturday. Hopefully, everything will be all right by then,? he said.

Go ahead and fade away if you must