USC over Texas (detailed analysis)

[Mr. Black Cat]

Great Write-Up

Great Write-Up

Well, it took a while but I read it all.

I played USC already and your analysis just gives me more confidence. Maybe I'll add a few bucks more.

Thanks for taking the time to type such a detailed outlook on the game.

 

[Scott4USC]

I know i shouldnt even bother, but don't you think it is unfair to compare this years SC team to last years SC team. SC defense last year was always right near the tops in a offense only conference, which is incredible. This year they are like 74 in pass and 24 in rush (i dont think another team besides SC rushes in the pac10. lol jk but not really) I know it is tempting to say Texas has similar strength of schedule and similar offensive production (in a much tougher D conference) Texas has a better defense. SC has a better coach. But this game will be a blow out cause last years SC team did it so this years will.

This should answer the question about comparing last years USC D vs this years USC D. I do think last years D was better but how much better I honestly don't know. This years D is a lot faster. The biggest difference is USC was much more dominating at DT last year.

Last year USC had a terrific defense averaging 13 ppg given up (people still doubted them), but this year USC has given up 20 ppg. Part of that is due to USCs offense. This year USC has had few drives taking more than 3 minutes of game time leaving the D on the field longer.

And last year they were in several dogfights because the USC O stumbled at times: Va Tech, Stanford, Cal, and UCLA were all close. USC needed to keep their first string defense in for most of those games. This year only Notre Dame, ASU and FSU were that way and the rest were games won by late third quarter. Several scores were accomplished against the second team defense this year. Most don't realize this or know this when looking at "stats." It is crucial info. USC also played all their best opponents on the road. Brutal schedule.

Think about it. That is only 7pt difference and this years schedule was much more brutal.

Remember, posters here at MJ's said Peterson would run over 200 yards against USC. USC has not seen an offense like OU. USC has not seen a D like OU. USC over-rated. Funny how people can find ways to doubt USC's dominance. It will be another double digit BCS bowl victory for USC. Look at my thread (that was moved) BLAST FROM THE PAST quoting multiple respected cappers from last year. All were impressed with OU dominating CO (texas did too) and no respect for USC and pac 10 etc.

BTW, USC is #1 D in the Pac 10 (stat wise).

 

[USCMD]

Scott.....bravo! Thanks for sharing your logic with us.

I agree totally.....in fact I posted 45-21 on another site. SC has had the same decimation by injury NE had, and several of those guys are back on defense. I think USC's defense is largely underated, but that will change tomorrow.

Enjoy the game.....and enjoy your rewards.

Doc

 

[blgstocks]

BTW, USC is #1 D in the Pac 10 (stat wise).

Having average D in a conference that has absolutely none will get you a #1 ranking, that doesnt mean anything.

To respond to your response Scott, I know you have alot of stats and everything, but after every other sentence you have "just like OU last year". Well 05 SC isnt 04 SC. 05 Texas isnt 04 Oklahoma.

I know your big push for this years rose bowl is history always repeats itself. Well how many times in History has a team won 3 straight NC? Never, and it has been attempted a few times. I believe history will repeat itself again, SC will get stopped. And if SC wins NC, SC didnt win NC in 03 anyways.

 

[gman2]

scott:

id be interested in seeing if you can produce quotes from people (or anyone) who said that "usc hadn't seen an offense like oklahoma's"
i think your post is relatively on point, but youre stretching the truth a bit with that one. i dont think anyone thought ou was some offensive juggernaut (they weren't).

 

[CWood97]

Scott, a question. How can you open by stating that Texas has a chance to win straight up, and then in the same post predict that they lose by three scores?

I tend to agree with your sentiment that USC will win and cover, but you conveniently ignore how USC struggled vs an ND team that was by all accounts, quite overrated. Also, USC was in a dog fight, at home, vs a lousy Fresno State team. Where was that in your analysis?

Sometimes reading too much into the past can get one in trouble. I learned that with MSU vs Penn State this year. As much as you may want them to be, Texas is not OU 2004.

If I were you I would hedge at least 10K of that bet. Why not pocket some cash? In any case, good luck.

 

[Scott4USC]

To respond to your response Scott, I know you have alot of stats and everything, but after every other sentence you have "just like OU last year". Well 05 SC isnt 04 SC. 05 Texas isnt 04 Oklahoma.

I know your big push for this years rose bowl is history always repeats itself. Well how many times in History has a team won 3 straight NC? Never, and it has been attempted a few times. I believe history will repeat itself again, SC will get stopped. And if SC wins NC, SC didnt win NC in 03 anyways.

There is a reason I went with that theme. USC hears it every year vs their BCS bowl opponent. Iowa, Michigan, and OU. (now Texas) OU and TEXAS are BCS NC opponents. OU and Texas are from Big 12. OU and Texas have similar stats supporting their team coming into the BCS NC game.

You see the stats that give you the impression Texas has a great team (comparable to USC). I just showed you the REAL STATS Texas supporters don't want you seeing. Then I proved my stats are credible because I showed you how OU came into the BCS bowl game with the same stats as Texas.

I have tons of support backing up my prediction. I don't see ANY solid analysis supporting Texas except these stats people throw out. Stats I showed that are meaningless. I have stats and analysis supporting USC. I would love to read solid analysis supporting Texas.

There are a lot of players who played in last years BCS NC game vs OU who will be playing against Texas. In fact, ALL those players IMPROVED! :scared

Biggest improvement is USC OL. USC was super young last year, mostly on offense.

 

[ferdville]

Excellent, informative post. I think the biggest difference is definitely coaching. Doesn't everyone remember when USC was supposedly doomed by the departure of Norm Chow? Doesn't seemed to have slowed down the offense much.

If you follow USC, you know that they have totally dominated teams in the second half when they needed to do so. They did it with defensive adjustments, not offensive machinations.

I agree with Scott that Texas will move the ball in the first quarter. I also believe they will move it in the second quarter. If the game is close or USC is losing, watch this much maligned defense stand up and make it possible for Trojans to pull away.

Good luck, Scott

 

[hedgehog]

Why not hedge? At least guarantee yourself a win. I also think Texas wins straight up. posted a few weeks ago.

Best of luck, you have some balls for not hedging.

 

[blgstocks]

after finally finishing reading all the posts i have some stats that the SC backers dont want you to see
what do UCLA, Hawaii, and Arkansas have in common? They are all terrible lol

what does colorado 70-3 loss to texas mean? they are the highest ranked rushing D than ANYBODY SC has faced all year.

a few of SC closest games, ND, Oregon, ASU, Fresno St. what do these teams have in common. They are 0-4 ATS in bowls. 1-3 if you count ASU beating rutgers as a win.

Now do i think any of these stats mean anything..... nope. But these are the kind of arguments made. I have already addressed the "just like last year" argument.

You already have the NC picked and now you just go back and put the stats and evidence the way that supports your pick. You should be unbiased and go through the stats and base your conclusion from there.

You cannot possibly say you did this because for a team that went 12-0 and beat their teams by more than anyone else in football you have no stat and conclusion that supports Texas being better than SC.

Having said all that, i want Texas to win, but man i dont want to see you lose all that money to the books, i kinda hope you win 45,000 man. I honestly believe some of your arguments are very convincing. Dont respond to these stats either cause i know the fallacies behind them same as you do same as unbaised people can look at the fallacies behind many of your arguments. Again I do appreciate your work scott and a honest good luck on the game. If texas wins i will be happy ESPN looks like dumbasses and Texas gets some respect. If SC wins you win 50grand and thast quite a bit of money riding on a game. So either way im happy.

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott, a question. How can you open by stating that Texas has a chance to win straight up, and then in the same post predict that they lose by three scores?

Sorry missed your post.

I do think Texas has a chance to win. My prediction is based on how I "think" things play out. I explained why I feel that way. This isn't a slam dunk USC victory but I am very confident USC comes out on top. I thought OU had small chance at beating USC and I even hedged. But I feel Texas has an even smaller chance.

I tend to agree with your sentiment that USC will win and cover, but you conveniently ignore how USC struggled vs an ND team that was by all accounts, quite overrated. Also, USC was in a dog fight, at home, vs a lousy Fresno State team. Where was that in your analysis?

I thought my post was long enough and I doubt many can/will read it all.

Facts about USC/ND game. #1 it was @South Bend which is very hostile. ND had 2 weeks to prepare and this was their GOY. Rivalry. Leinart against ASU suffered a concussion off latet cheap hit. He was not 100% recovered from it. But he actually played well. USC WR's SUCKED. USC dropped 5 wide open passes against ND. YOU CAN'T DO THAT! USC also gave up a punt return against ND. USC also was playing #18 Walker at DB who was burned repeatedly. He isn't starting anymore and was replaced by Pinkard. He is a stud! ND had TWICE the TOP against USC. The D was spent yet still held ND below their averages.

Fresno St. game was FSU's GAME OF A LIFETIME. Biggest game history of their program. USC D forced 3 fumbles in 1h and FSU recovered all 3. USC D dominated 3q. USC special teams let FSU back in the game giving FSU starting field position in 2h at USC 25 and USC 15. Give props to FSU and they laid everything they got into USC game. As a result FSU ended season losing 4 straight games. FSU is a damn good team. Played great againt USC. You know damn well USC was not nearly as pumped as FSU.

Sometimes reading too much into the past can get one in trouble. I learned that with MSU vs Penn State this year. As much as you may want them to be, Texas is not OU 2004.

Isn't USC one of the most consistent teams in CFB history? On top of it, USC is veteran team! Look at USC's last 3 BCS bowl games. USC was doubted in each game.

If I were you I would hedge at least 10K of that bet. Why not pocket some cash? In any case, good luck.

I was sooooo close to putting 10k on Texas ML. That is the exact amount I was figuring. I still can but I am so confident in USC to come out on top tom. I can't do it. Especially since USC team looks soooo prepared in these bowl practices. Leinart has been flawless in practices. me winning $6,900 on USC going undefeated helps in my decision not to hedge. Plus I won boat load of money UTAH 2h against G-Tech. I'll have my cell phone at the game and if things look bad or i get bad vibe, I might be able to hedge 2h. Unless Texas up by double digits. :scared

 

[OMAR]

I didn't know Texas was running a high school offense. I need to watch some more film.

I didn't know Texas had an stubborn arrogant defense. How does one determine such things?

What strikes me as the biggest differences between this game and last year's USC-OU game is 1) USC defense isn't nearly as good as the 03 and 04 editions. The most efficient Qb in the country (Young) will be able to lead his team to enough scores to keep it close.

2) USC prolly thinks this will be another blowout. Leinart and Bush filmed some spots for ESPN after the UCLA game (ncaa rules be damned), and if they're just half as confident as their fans...
they might find themselves a little too far behind at halftime. Was that the plan this year for USC? Come from behind whenever possible. They might make a great effort to come from behind, but this time.....Bush isn't able to push Leinart across the goal line.

 

[Roger Baltrey]

Screw the hedge, Scott's gonna cash the ticket. Texas won't know what to do when they go down 14 in Third quarter.

 

[blgstocks]

Screw the hedge, Scott's gonna cash the ticket. Texas won't know what to do when they go down 14 in Third quarter.

Im curious, how much was Texas down against Michigan in rose bowl, or down by Kansas in 4th quarter last year, or by OSU this year.
I honestly dont know so if anybody knows a site where i can find that info please tell me the inf or the site. But i can garauntee Texas was trailing by a touchdown in each of those late, and they came back.

 

[Crazyant]

all it comes down to is: if u had to bet YOUR HOUSE on the game, who would you take? usc -7, or tex +7...i aint relying on a 1 dimensional qb who runs on weak conf. d's....

 

[Roger Baltrey]

And he wont' be playing against Lloyd Carr and choking Wolverines this year.

 

[Jerseydrifter]

YEA-He'll run on the WEAK PAC 10 Defenses. USC will have a hard time containing V. YOUNG!!!

JERSEY

 

[Bombs]

1) Oklahomo and Texas run completely different offenses. Comparing their offenses on the basis of their being from the same conference is ridiculous.

2) USC's defense has been a sieve on multiple occasions this year. No numbers need to be used to explain this, their performance on the field speaks for itself. I'm not sure that Texas can exploit their extraordinarily weak corners.

3) You point to the ND game as some huge win in hostile territory but then continually degrade the biggest regular season result of the year in Texas over OSU. I don't care if it was game one or ten, they beat them at the Shoe, which is a huge accomplishment.

 

[vivalas]

I like USC but not by as big of a margin as you. A couple of factors worry me,

1-USC has been awful on special teams, especially on net punt 114th ranked in the nation. Texas has returned 3 punts for TDs this year FG kicker is short on experience with only 1 try over 40 yards this year ..he missed

2- Lendale White has gained his yards against average defenses. He was non-existent against an average ND defense and barely showed up against Fresno

3- USC Has been putting up record numbers against average defenses, doesn't mean they're bad but it needs to be put in context

4-USc Defense has given up rushing 6.0 yards per carry to Drew, 4.7 to Mathis (Fresno),6.7 to Lynch of Cal. 4.4 to Edwards (Stanford), the offensive explosion has helped cause teams to abandon the run which is cause for USC's great run defensive numbers

Just a few things that worry me about this. Reggie Bush is the factor again, Lendale White is Shut down and Matt has a decent game. Texas runs early and passes to catch up late , I like a 34-27 victory for USC

4- Lack of experience of a tight game for Texas, don't buy it, watched texas-osu game and they physically outplayed OSU. Vince Young took them down the field when they had to and the defense stopped OSU when they had to. Smith played and wasn't very effective either (granted first game back)

 

[trolln4walii]

Scott....

I enjoyed reading your post. :clap: You definitely get an A+ for your homework Great write-up and analysis. I jumped on UCS when the line came out at -6- at BetJamaica. My Cliff Notes Analysis.....Trojans Win!! GL :mj14: