USC over Texas (detailed analysis)

[blgstocks]

I like USC but not by as big of a margin as you. A couple of factors worry me,


2- Lendale White has gained his yards against average defenses. He was non-existent against an average ND defense and barely showed up against Fresno

I wouldnt let this one worry you too much, White is a solid back. I dont think he even saw the ball against Fresno, reggie had like 8million yards, give or take a million. Don't know why he didnt show up at ND though.

 

[Phenom]

Good Luck Scott, that would be a real nice payday.

New Car, large down payment on a house, pay off debt, invest it, etc...

 

[AU2001]

Scott, congratulations on your new collection of tremendously long posts. I'm sure there is some good info. in them, I just can't bring myself to take the time to read the whole thing. GL

 

[Scott4USC]

1) Oklahomo and Texas run completely different offenses. Comparing their offenses on the basis of their being from the same conference is ridiculous.

I wasn't comparing their offensive systems. I was comparing their stats they put up.

I'm not sure that Texas can exploit their extraordinarily weak corners.

USC lost their #1 DB to suspension and #3 DB to season ending injury. USC replaced starting DB Walker midway season with Pinkard. 1st time Pinkard playing DB but he is awesome and learned each and every game. Of course USC had growing pains at DB position. Tons of injuries including their #1 nickleback too! (Ellison) Now those players are experienced for Texas. Same with LB's. USC was injured so bad at LB position USC played 2 frosh and walkon at same time. Growing pains. Now it makes USC much better.

3) You point to the ND game as some huge win in hostile territory but then continually degrade the biggest regular season result of the year in Texas over OSU. I don't care if it was game one or ten, they beat them at the Shoe, which is a huge accomplishment.

Who the hell was impressed with the way Texas played? I certainly wasn't. OSU was not the same OSU team (now). OSU wasn't that great at the time Texas played them. But that is my opinion. If I am wrong, I might lost 22k because of it.

 

[gman2]

scott:

giving texas a world of credit for beating ohio state in columbus does not mean the trojans are going to less nor does it lessen your credibility. if anything, you become MORE credible when you concede some things to your "opponent"

usc is still a far better team than texas.

but whats so hard about giving texas all the credit theyre due for winning in columbus. even though troy smith didnt play as much as he should have, the horns still needed to go about 70 or 80 yards on their final drive against osu's defense in the shoe..... and young found a way to do it.

its not going to change the outcome of tomorrows game. trojans still better. but to denigrate the horns win columbus is silly.

 

[Scott4USC]

1-USC has been awful on special teams, especially on net punt 114th ranked in the nation. Texas has returned 3 punts for TDs this year FG kicker is short on experience with only 1 try over 40 yards this year ..he missed

Good pt and I agree it is a concern. BUT you are forgetting one thing. USC got back 3 LB's for this game at close to 100% health. LUA, RIVERS, and WILLIAMS. USC also got back DB WALKER 2nd to last game of year. Special teams is made up of DB's and LB's. 2 areas USC was INJURY DEPLETED ALL YEAR. Carroll did good job with 2 weeks to prepare for UCLA who is damn good at ST's. As for field goals. Carroll goes for TD's. Very agressive coach. Tressel lost to Texas because he settled for FG's. Carroll settles for TD's.

2- Lendale White has gained his yards against average defenses. He was non-existent against an average ND defense and barely showed up against Fresno

ND was only team to shut him down. I was surprised and huge props to ND. Irish posters here said ND does well against Big backs. Maybe it was the rain forest the teams played in hurt White. Maybe he had an off day. But no team has shut down both White and Bush in a game. There were games where White dominated and Bush didn't.

Against Texas look for White to line at RB and Bush to split out and create major mismatch. USC did not do that at all this year and Texas has no idea to defend it because they have not seen it on film. Texas has small LB's (they are not very good either) and White will punish them.

4-USc Defense has given up rushing 6.0 yards per carry to Drew, 4.7 to Mathis (Fresno),6.7 to Lynch of Cal. 4.4 to Edwards (Stanford), the offensive explosion has helped cause teams to abandon the run which is cause for USC's great run defensive numbers

Completely disagreee. USC run defense has been excellent this year. Remember, a lot of yards have been gained in 2h and against 2nd and 3rd team defensive players. Drew ran wild on USC in the 4th in meaningless quarter. Where was he in the 1h? Washington St. RB had great game against USC. Remember, you win all these games teams give you their best shot. Texas will get USC's best shot. :scared

Just a few things that worry me about this. Reggie Bush is the factor again, Lendale White is Shut down and Matt has a decent game. Texas runs early and passes to catch up late , I like a 34-27 victory for USC

I'll take it!

4- Lack of experience of a tight game for Texas, don't buy it, watched texas-osu game and they physically outplayed OSU. Vince Young took them down the field when they had to and the defense stopped OSU when they had to. Smith played and wasn't very effective either (granted first game back)

Completely disagree. Young wasn't impressive in that game until late 4th. Texas had 3 turnovers. OSU kicked FG's instead of TD's. Texas also faced Zwick not just Smith. If Smith played entire game, Texas loses. But more importantly, OSU was not a very good club at the time. Offense was pathetic. OSU still dropped an easy TD pass that would have beat Texas.

People just remember the game winning Young drive. I look at how Young played all 4 quarters. (not impressed) It takes all 4 quarters to "compete" with USC.

 

[vivalas]

disagree on the osu game, Smith looked lost with the defensive pressure that was provided. Young didn't have a great game but neither did Matt against ND but when the cards were on the line both delivered. Texas fans won't give credit to USC for the ND game bevause of last night, thats a mistake, ND played its best game of the season in that game.

One last point Carroll has gone for TDs because he's had no choice given the defenses he's faced this year, special teams almost cost them the game against ND, little worried it could make it a close game here as well.

 

[vivalas]

On White I can only comment on the 3 games I watched him and he was not at all impressive. Doesn't mean he's not a good back , I just don't see him having much success against this defense. Good news is I think Reggie continue to have a field day

 

[Scott4USC]

disagree on the osu game, Smith looked lost with the defensive pressure that was provided. Young didn't have a great game but neither did Matt against ND but when the cards were on the line both delivered. Texas fans won't give credit to USC for the ND game bevause of last night, thats a mistake, ND played its best game of the season in that game.

USC played sloppy vs ND. Matt Leinart WR's let him down. They dropped freaking 5 wide open passes. That kills a QB and offense. That is not ML's fault. Last time USC dropped that many passes was in year 1 of Carroll @Kansas St. It def. is an anomaly. I think only 1 of those dropped passes was less than 10 yards. So those were BIG drops. Especially on road in hostile environment against rival who happens to be a great team.

Leianart was 17/32 301 yards despite those 5 dropped passes. Not bad espcially when game is played on road in hostile environment! But he did have 2 INT's. Leinart was still recovering from small consussion against ASU.

I remember OSU offense coming to life with Smith. Zwick is not a good QB and OSU offense at the time wasn't anywhere near the offense they are now. I think OSU outplayed Texas. Only problem is Tressel didn't play Smith the entire game and Tressel kicks FG's instead of scoring TD's. USC scores TD's.

 

[vivalas]

Actualy they came to life on his first drive which started at the Texas 40 I believe. After that the defense had him utterly confused. The dropped TD pass was from Zwick.

Matt did have some dropped passes against ND, don't recall5 easy ones but certainly not questioning his skills. I see a USC win, just don't see a clear mismatch.

 

[Dice34]

Scott, you spin everything and are so biased in your supposedly "objective analysis".......I'm not saying USC won't win, but to say USC winning against ND is impressive and Texas winning in Ohio State isn't, is just downright ignorant......I like to poke fun at you, but nothing serious, I hope you enjoy the game.....I just hope its a good game.............and stop saying USC has more team speed, until you are a college or pro scout and see them BOTH live, then you tell me about it, not from your USC inside catalogue

 

[gjn23]

are you kidding me.....i just heard the following quote from the dc for texas

"what sc does on offense is nothing that we havent seen already this year"

ARE YOU SERIOUS?

what team runs the pro set like sc with two completely differnet rb's a qb and wr's who are all nfl players......rice, kansas, ok state, tex am, col????????

im conviced these guys are gonna get steamrolled.......sc -17.5 +325 looks great

 

[3 Seconds]

ND had 2 weeks to prepare and this was their GOY. Rivalry. Leinart against ASU suffered a concussion off latet cheap hit. He was not 100% recovered from it. But he actually played well. USC WR's SUCKED. USC dropped 5 wide open passes against ND. YOU CAN'T DO THAT! USC also gave up a punt return against ND. USC also was playing #18 Walker at DB who was burned repeatedly. He isn't starting anymore and was replaced by Pinkard. He is a stud! ND had TWICE the TOP against USC. The D was spent yet still held ND below their averages.


Fresno St. game was FSU's GAME OF A LIFETIME. Biggest game history of their program. USC D forced 3 fumbles in 1h and FSU recovered all 3. USC D dominated 3q. USC special teams let FSU back in the game giving FSU starting field position in 2h at USC 25 and USC 15. Give props to FSU and they laid everything they got into USC game. As a result FSU ended season losing 4 straight games. FSU is a damn good team. Played great againt USC.

How flawed is your statement above ....here's you're reason why USC didnt play well in those games, but yet somehow those same "facts" dont ring true for this game.

So you're saying this isnt UT's "GOY"?

So you're saying UT hasnt had multiple weeks to prepare for USC?

SO you're saying UT couldnt seriously out TOP USC??

So you're saying UT cant make a big special teams play vs SC VERY WEAK coverage teams. They have done this 3x already this year for TD's

So you're saying this isnt Texas' players "game of a lifetime"?

So again you point out USC glaring weakness @ giving up special teams TD's & fiield position...do you see a theme developing for USC special teams here?

So you're saying UT wont "lay everything they got" into this game as FSU did?

So you're saying UT isnt "a damn good team" that FSU is, the one that got owned by Tulsa.

Here are some facts:

Play like you did against ASU, USC will lose.

Play like you did against Fresno, USC will lose.

Play like you did against ND, USC will lose.

Will Texas win, hell I dont know, but the Horns definately have a much better chance than you are giving them at this time.

 

[3 Seconds]

Completely disagreee. USC run defense has been excellent this year. Remember, a lot of yards have been gained in 2h and against 2nd and 3rd team defensive players. Drew ran wild on USC in the 4th in meaningless quarter. Where was he in the 1h? Washington St. RB had great game against USC. Remember, you win all these games teams give you their best shot. Texas will get USC's best shot. :scared

Again you always rationalize these types of things in the favor of USC & not for Texas.

Texas blew out just as many teams as USC did this season.

UT had 2nd & 3rd stringers in on D as well. So if you want to put that into your evaluation of USC & igonre their "pure" stats, do the same for Texas cause if they had their starters in the whole time they might be a top 2 defense in the country, not just a top 10.

 

[3 Seconds]

Young wasn't impressive in that game until late 4th. Texas had 3 turnovers. OSU kicked FG's instead of TD's. Texas also faced Zwick not just Smith. If Smith played entire game, Texas loses. But more importantly, OSU was not a very good club at the time. Offense was pathetic. OSU still dropped an easy TD pass that would have beat Texas.

People just remember the game winning Young drive. I look at how Young played all 4 quarters. (not impressed) It takes all 4 quarters to "compete" with USC.

Man, I cant go 2 paragraphs without finding major flaws in your arguements here.

First off USC D is not OSU D say whatever you want that IS A FACT.

You dont know if UT would have won or not if Smith played the whole game. He looked condused & was controlled by the UT D. Zwick actually outplayed him IMO but maybe just maybe Smith fumbles on his scrambles or throws some INTS. YOU JUST CANT KNOW THE OUTCOME with IF's & BUT's. (Cause if ML doesnt complete that 4th down play USC lost to ND, IF USC didnt get that push from Reggie to get Matt in USC lost, if USC didnt come back vs ASU, USC might not even be playing tomarrow night.)

"Offense was pathetic"........hint maybe that had just a little something to do with the UT defense being on the field. They held time & time again after those TO's gave OSU the ball deep in UT territory. Big time game season on the line game 2 of the year & that D stepped up. Think about it that way, not just in an ANTI-TEXAS manner.

"People just remember the game winning Young drive. I look at how Young played all 4 quarters. (not impressed)"

So then do you look at how USC played in all 4Q's of their game, cause if you do they FLAT OUT SUCKED ON O & D vs ASU. How do you put up 3 pts in a half vs the 100+ D in the country? Put up three on UT in the first half & you can forget cashing your big ticket.

They only hung 14 on Zona in the 1st half, they must blow on O...

They sucked vs Washington for half the game.

Take out that 3Q by USC vs Fresno St & your Trojans got blown out by Fresno ST...OWNED in fact.

Now we all know USC doesnt suck on offense & we know they did end up winning vs FSU w/ the benefit of some horrible Pitner INTs.

My point is you just take portions of USC games, but you miss the fact they didnt play 100% great quaters all the time & neither did Texas, but you cant take away the end results Texas had just cause your rose colored glasses want to take it a detraction to Texas. The FACT is UT beat OSU @ the Shoe, the FACT is VY came up HUGE when he needed to vs what I consider the best D(@ least front 7) in the country. USC did the same thing, they won all their games, not all pretty, but they won.

 

[gjn23]

one team is gonna score close to the avg of 50

and

the other team is gonna score close to half

48-23 sc

 

[blgstocks]

Man, I cant go 2 paragraphs without finding major flaws in your arguements here.

First off USC D is not OSU D say whatever you want that IS A FACT.

You dont know if UT would have won or not if Smith played the whole game. He looked condused & was controlled by the UT D. Zwick actually outplayed him IMO but maybe just maybe Smith fumbles on his scrambles or throws some INTS. YOU JUST CANT KNOW THE OUTCOME with IF's & BUT's. (Cause if ML doesnt complete that 4th down play USC lost to ND, IF USC didnt get that push from Reggie to get Matt in USC lost, if USC didnt come back vs ASU, USC might not even be playing tomarrow night.)

"Offense was pathetic"........hint maybe that had just a little something to do with the UT defense being on the field. They held time & time again after those TO's gave OSU the ball deep in UT territory. Big time game season on the line game 2 of the year & that D stepped up. Think about it that way, not just in an ANTI-TEXAS manner.

"People just remember the game winning Young drive. I look at how Young played all 4 quarters. (not impressed)"

So then do you look at how USC played in all 4Q's of their game, cause if you do they FLAT OUT SUCKED ON O & D vs ASU. How do you put up 3 pts in a half vs the 100+ D in the country? Put up three on UT in the first half & you can forget cashing your big ticket.

They only hung 14 on Zona in the 1st half, they must blow on O...

They sucked vs Washington for half the game.

Take out that 3Q by USC vs Fresno St & your Trojans got blow out by Fresno ST...OWNED in fact.

Now we all know USC doesnt suck on offense & we know they did end up winning vs FSU w/ the benefit of some horrible Pitner INTs.

My point is you just take portions of USC games, but you miss the fact they didnt play 100% great quaters all the time & neither did Texas, but you cant take away the end results Texas had just cause your rose colored glasses want to take it a detraction to Texas. The FACT is UT beat OSU @ the Shoe, the FACT is VY came up HUGE when he needed to vs what I consider the best D(@ least front 7) in the country. USC did the same thing, they won all their games, not all pretty, but they won.

I agree.

 

[3 Seconds]

Here a few quotes from your idols Carroll & ML. Now we know everyone says the right things, but there is some definate truth in these statements:

On UT's secondary:

"I look back there, and all I see is NFL players,? said USC coach Pete Carroll. ?They`re a very confident, very aggressive, fast, big group that is talented enough to stay very basic. They really jump out at you on film because they don`t need to junk it up and play any help back there. They`ve just locked up in man and smothered everybody they`ve played."

"Top to bottom, this is the best defense we will have faced since I`ve been here," USC quarterback Matt Leinart said. :scared

What do you mean even better than OU Matty??? I thought this was the same team as the 04 Sooner team.....

Oh yeah & back to that special teams theme dont forget this FACT:

Texas is the best return team in college football, averaging 15.9 yards on punt returns and 26.9 on kickoff returns. :scared

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Scott, I really enjoyed your writeup, thanks for putting in the time, especially knowing that some people were probably going to jump on your back.

Let me preface my next statement by saying that I have a large sized bet on USC at -6.5, but you should definately hedge the bet. If we were talking a couple of hundred dollars, screw it, go for the ramble.

Being a winning sports bettor isn't about knocking one pick out of the park, it is about consitantly taking small gains and accumulating them. To have a situation to be able to guarentee youself multiple thousands of dollars regardless of outcome is something you shouldn't ignore.

Besides, it would take a whole lot of pressure off you while watching the game...

Either way, best of luck, Pulling for you.

 

[3 Seconds]

Yeah as much as I hate your USC twist to every fact & as annoying as you can be to a UT fan @ this time you HAVE to hedge that bet to get at least 10K out it. It is the smart thing to do, & the it will be the only sure thing we know about tomarrow game.

Just imagine if Leinhart gets hurt on the first series or Bush....think about it man it is POSSIBLE.