USC over Texas (detailed analysis)

[Scott4USC]

gjn23 gets it. This is what I meant by the arrogance of Texas and their coaching staff. This is exactly what OU did against USC. Stoops thought SOONER BALL will win. Just execute. Texas DC said....

"what sc does on offense is nothing that we havent seen already this year"

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

Read my analysis above and this was exactly what I was talking about. Funny that this quote comes after me posting my analysis. Texas is going to try and play Texas football against USC. USC is going to try and out scheme Texas. USC will have new schemes on offense and defense. Always have in BCS bowl games. USC opponents have not. Is Texas any different? I don't think so. USC will win by double digits.


**************************

This thread is about SCOTT4USC's prediction and SCOTT4USC's analysis. You chose to open it and read it. I share MY OPINION why I AM BETTING USC. I think posters forget this. Like I said, I have not lost a big wager on USC since year 1 of Pete Carroll. I have been doubted pretty much every big USC bet and everytime I come out on top. This will be no different. I am very confident in my analysis and I am backing it up by not hedging MY bet. I may lose, but I put my money where my mouth is. I always do. I am not afraid to put #'s behind my plays and be held accountable for my actions. You know exactly how much I win or lose on a wager.

Posters come into my thread attacking my analysis, but when I search MJ's for their analysis on the game, I come up empty. I put myself out there with every big bet of mine because I try and tell everyone why I am betting it.

If you think I am bias or my analysis doesn't make sense, then why the hell did you open my thread in the first place? To just tell me I am wrong?

 

[Scott4USC]

More analysis I found that I saved in word and forgot to post. I am warning you. USC has Texas figured out. USC is coached/prepared like an NFL team. Here is some more solid info. Take it for what its worth. Learned this analysis from someone else.

Texas DC Chizik is highly touted DC who has seen USC O twice. (he did not have success and USC O then is nowhere near as good as USC O now and Chizik had awesome defenses at Auburn) Leinart took his first collegiate snap @AUBURN and USC still scored 24pts and AU was touted as having awesome athletes on D and one of the best D?s in the SEC. (USC also had no BUSH/WHITE/Jarret)

People fail to realize that Chizik loves to stay in his base D and is confident that as long as ?his? guys execute, they will have success vs any O scheme. (BAD BAD BAD) He is hesitant to play nickel defense or drop his guys back in prevent which is of course what they must do to have a chance. Which gets back to what I said earlier. UT thinks they can win playing UT football. The only time he got out of the base defense all season was against TTech when any moron would understand that more DBs were needed. BANK ON Chizik staying in the base D and get his guys all hyped that they are going to EXECUTE and kick the shit out of Leinart, Bush, Jarrett and Co.

We all know that this is a recipe for disaster as the only real way to stay in the game with USC is to play prevent from the beginning and make USC earn every point. They are once again too good for their own good and will come out in a normal defense thinking they have seen USC on film and they will be fine. We all know what will come next which is an onslaught of points that will leave the players demoralized, pointing fingers and questioning everything their coaches have taught them.

Meanwhile, the Texas coaches will be trotting out the ?we are not executing? bull$hit and pointing fingers at the players who are failing and Chizik for trying to play us straight up. It will be an ugly scene once again.

:mj14:

 

[DerekNJND]

GL scott.

Most of these people on this board dont realize the motivation factor for USC. Yeah, they played some "close" games this year. But you know what, no matter how good you are, when you win 30+ straight games, you are going to get the other team's best shot week after week.

Also, yeah you wanna keep the streak going, but ALL the teams USC had "close" games against this year are teams they have been STEAMROLLING OVER in the last 3 seasons! ND, ASU, Oregon, cmon. USC has been whoopin on these teams the last 2 seasons leading up to this year. Its pretty hard to be motivated week after week when you are playing opponents that usually fold pretty easily. Besides keeping a "streak" alive, its hard for these seniors to be motivated to BLOW OUT every single team they play. Who cares? When you have won 30 straight games a win is a win.

When USC WAS motivated this season, lets look at what they have done.

UCLA rivalry and final home game: ASS KICKING!
4th and 9 at ND stadium: TD 3 plays later to win the game
2nd half AT OREGON: 35-0
2nd half AT ASU 35-7

see a pattern here? when their back is up against it, and they have SOMETHING TO DRIVE THEM, they are the best thing college fb has seen in quite some time

ANYONE LAYING ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY ON THIS TEAM TO LOSE IS INSANE! If you think texas will give them a fight, then dont bet.

 

[blgstocks]

Scott, why not just put 20k on Texas -7.5, even if you lose this bet you win the 45. If SC doesnt win which is a very real possibility you win the money to cover your original bet, but if Texas covers and SC wins you win both. Why not do it, everyone in here would applaud you for a great win either way and its the SMART thing to do.

 

[blgstocks]

LOL i like your new signature derek i assume it is a response to thoms 0-8 ND bowl signature?

And yes if it happened yesterday it is history, but counting NC from the 30s isnt as relvant of history as ND current streak

 

[DerekNJND]

People just dont understand the complexity and importance of the offensive and defensive schemes either. Scott has stressed what USC does as far as schemes, but the only way to beat schemes like theirs is with one HELL of a gameplan yourself.

Dont get me wrong, and this is the reason for this post. USC is beatable, I'm not trying to say they are invinceable. If Weis and that slow, talentless core of defensive backs at ND could hold USC to 34 points, 27 up until the final 2 ticks, then Texas has the TALENT to shut USC out. Dont laugh, its true. The reason is it wasnt ND's defense, it was the gameplan.

Everyone is lulled into thinking Texas will come out strong and then fade. Well here's a DIFFERENT theory, one I've noticed in Texas games going back to last season. Yeah, USC had a tendency to come out sluggish in some games this year. That wont happen tomorrow. NO WAY these kids arent up for this game. NO WAY
I am expecting something different, I think it is TEXAS that will come out sluggish, and while most people dont give them a chance in a comeback, thats what they will be forced to do. I expect USC to be up 17+ at some point in the 2nd quarter, maybe at half, and Texas to come back and make it a little tighter in the second half. This will be a unique scenario, and MAYBE the key to beating this trojan team. They are ALWAYS the ones coming back. How will they handle the OTHER team coming back? We saw what a top 5 offense can do to USC in the first half of the ASU game. Texas has that type of offense. How will USC respond from being up 3 scores to suddenly being challenged in the 4th quarter?? That we dont know because we havent seen it yet. Maybe we do tomorrow.

 

[DerekNJND]

LOL i like your new signature derek i assume it is a response to thoms 0-8 ND bowl signature?

And yes if it happened yesterday it is history, but counting NC from the 30s isnt as relvant of history as ND current streak

thats the point. history is history, whether it happened this afternoon or 200 years ago. Bowl games from last year might be relevant, but ND's streak of losing bowl games dating back to the Lou Holtz era is IRRELEVANT in capping this years bowl game

BTW some of OSU's few NC's were from way back too...if 1995 is important, different team,players,coach, etc, then so are the 30s

 

[hm23]

Well, I generally agree with your analysis on the title game, Scott.

I do find some of your comments ridiculous - such as, itt's tougher to conceal the ball in the shotgun? - whatever. :mj07:

I would hedge my bet if I were in the same position but I think you'll stick to your guns..and good luck to you as I also have money on the Trojans.

Lookin at a score of 38-24....to cap off a good bowl season - a bit unusual for me. I hope HC Carroll utilizes his TE's v. UT.


:mj14:

 

[blgstocks]

thats the point. history is history, whether it happened this afternoon or 200 years ago. Bowl games from last year might be relevant, but ND's streak of losing bowl games dating back to the Lou Holtz era is IRRELEVANT in capping this years bowl game

BTW some of OSU's few NC's were from way back too...if 1995 is important, different team,players,coach, etc, then so are the 30s

I can honestly say derek that your analysis of the Texas come from behind sounds the most probable to me and i respect the write up and your position with SC.

But about the quote above i didnt say anything about OSU title games i dont even know why you decided to put OSU on there but i figured it was cause of Thom. Is it?

 

[DerekNJND]

All you Texas backers should check this play out. I dont think USC's dynasty ends in Texas blowing them out, if UT pulls it out its probably by 3 points or less. My book has a prop bet, for margin of victory,

Texas wins by 1-3 points. Save your +200 money line bets because this pays 8 to 1! I'm not playing it but if I thought texas would win, that would be my play!

 

[MACH1]

If I may,

THe most telling Stat is the fact that UT's leading tacklers' are in the secondary. IMO, If they let Bush or Lydell get into the secondary time and time again, then it's going to be a laugher. UT will have to stop the run to win this game, which means they will have to put 8 in the box. ML will and has over his career been able to read the D and change the play and SC does have outstanding WR's that will also play in the NFL. Another point worth noting is that they are playing a HOME GAME for goodness sakes! The rich and loyal alumni of the men of Troy will have the ROSE BOWL rockin', and I don't see how UT can come back in this game IF they fall behind. Lastly, I think there's no comparison to Carroll and Mack. I have absolutely no confidence in Brown, but have watched Carroll rally his troops against some pretty tough odds and come out smelling like a ROSE.

Texas is a great team in the Big 12 and if this game was played in the Cotton Bowl then I think it would even up the odds a bit, but out here in SOCAL where SC is DOMINATE, I don't think UT has a chance. I'm sure UT was hoping it would continue to rain to slow SC's offence down a bit, but no such luck. IF TEXAS can somehow pull this off, then I'll eat my words, because IMO it would be the biggest upset of all time.

Remember Scott, if you're looking for a house after the game, then give me a shout!

 

[sdf]

are you kidding me.....i just heard the following quote from the dc for texas

"what sc does on offense is nothing that we havent seen already this year"

ARE YOU SERIOUS?

Hi, can you provide a video clip or a text transcript of this statement? i couldnt find it anywhere.

thanks

 

[Dizzayton]

Your stats are skewed do to the fact that USC played in the PAC (which is not that strong) and also played Fresno and ND, teams with average defenses at best. While Texas was busy murdering teams in the BIG XII, everybody, including myself was joking about how Texas never played anybody after OHio ST. That was the perception, but the reality became clearly during the bowls. The BIG XII is not bad. Texas is just that good. Oklahoma soundly beat Oregon even though the score was close because of the Peterson fumble. Tex Tech played Bama to the wire. Colorado played realitively tough against Clemson. Iowa State almost knocked off a very very good TCU team, etc. What has the PAC 10 done? UCLA beat NW. Oregon lost to OK. CAL beat BYU by 7. Arizona ST. beat Rutgers by 5. And let me tell you something. RUtgers sucks. Being from the East I saw them play a bunch. And they are not a good team at all, but they managed to give Az ST everything they could handle. Throw in Fresno's loss to Tulsa and ND being COMPLETELY OUTCLASSED by OHio ST, and USC opponents this year don't look like much.

Scott, you are somewhat lucky that you won the 7K because USC almost lost to ND. Good luck on the Big Game.

 

[watrdogg]

Nice write up Scott. :scared Glad you took the time to share it with us. :clap: Let's bring this one home.


GO TROJANS!!

 

[8)ELVIS(8]

g.l on them as well :mj14:

 

[Bombs]

One thing is for sure, if Texas "drops back in the prevent" as Scotty insinuated they shoud above, they are going to get bitch slapped all over the field.

Their chance lies in taking the risk to put heat on Leinhart. If it doesnt work, they will lose, but stand back there and give USC's athletes room to work and they are dead.

 

[Scott4USC]

Somewhat meaningless stats that support USC! :mj14:

Texas vs PAC 10 - How does Texas do against the PAC 10: 1997 UCLA 66 texas 3! (Mackovic), 1998 UCLA 49 texas 31 (Brown), 1999 texas 69 Stanford 17, 2000 Stanford 27 texas 24. 2003 Washington St. 28 texas 20 (Brown). That is in the last 8 years. Brown is 1-3. However, notice however that ucla with McNown put up 49 points on a Brown coached team in a blowout, with Ricky Williams I believe. Texas hasn?t seen USC?s kind of offense ever!

In years USC has beaten both UCLA and Notre Dame, the Trojans are 11-1 in a bowl game, with the only loss in 1981 ... In the five previous seasons USC has entered its bowl game ranked No. 1 by the AP, the Trojans are 5-0, with national championships in each of the seasons -- 1962, 1967, 1972, 2003 and 2004 ... Under Carroll, USC has limited its four previous bowl opponents to an average of 15 points.

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[Scott4USC]

Dizzayton

I disagree. I think USC's stats are skewed negatively because they play in the Pac 10. 3 straight BCS bowl games USC's opponent had better stats. Resulted in 3 straight USC BCS blowouts. Every year USC struggles more in conf. play than in OOC or BCS bowl games. That is a fact! This year will be no different. I clearly pointed out the stats the media and Texas fans DON'T want you seeing becaue they either want to hype this game and/or give Texas a chance at winning. I also clearly pointed out that OU last year had the same credentials (coming from the Big 12) in terms of defensive stats as Texas does coming into this contest.

 

[Scott4USC]

Hi, can you provide a video clip or a text transcript of this statement? i couldnt find it anywhere.

thanks

It was on ESPN Sportscenter last night and came from Chiziks own mouth.

 

[Rcxslam]

"Leinart took his first collegiate snap @AUBURN and USC still scored 24pts and AU was touted as having awesome athletes on D and one of the best D?s in the SEC. (USC also had no BUSH/WHITE/Jarret)"

granted this was Leinarts first game...but Bush did play in this game, 5 rushes for 9 yards...and they also had a guy named Mike Williams.