Round 4 plays (2pts):
Jimmy Walker to beat Michael H. Thompson -103 @ Five Dimes
Will back Walker at this price. He has started the last round in the top-15 twice in the last three months and shot 68-70, whereas Thompson appears opposable at this price as despite being a finalist in the 2007 U.S. Amateur Championship and was low amateur in this year's U.S. Open, has only looked impressive in one PGA Tour event since: he opened with a 65 in the Travelers Championship, but every round thereafter was higher.
Rory Sabbatini to beat Zach Johnson -102 @ Pinnacle [available widely]
Sabbatini has held the post-third round lead six times on the PGA Tour/WGC, winning three times, finishing 2nd twice and third once. Considering that two of the three times that he didn't convert his chances, he lost out to Tiger Woods, that's a pretty good ratio and a clear indication that he doesn't buckle under final round pressure. With Johnson languishing at 125th in the Money List, it is unclear that he has the form/confidence to put Sabbatini under pressure today.
Tom Petrovic to beat Jeff Overton +145 @ The Greek
A very tempting price at which to oppose Overton, particularly as he surged into the lead on the front nine yesterday only to drop back, shooting over-par over his last ten holes. If he couldn't play as well under the pressure of leading, it is little surprise that he currently ranked 194th (of 200) in final round scoring average on the PGA Tour this year.
Joe Ogilvie to beat Tim Herron -107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX and Carib]
With the winds forecast to pick up today after yesterday's calm, easy conditions, it looks sensible to back the more consistent player in this matchup - Herron, like Overton, surged to the early lead yesterday only to drop back even more dramatically than Overton, though he did recover some ground on the back nine. With Herron also ranking almost 100 places lower on the PGA Tour's final round scoring average list, this should also point to Ogilvie today.