Round 1 play (4pts):
Sergio Garcia to beat Adam Scott +120 @ SkyBet and William Hill
There is no doubt that Scott has been playing the better golf of late and as a multiple winner in Texas, Scott should be the obvious pick in this matchup. However, both of those victories were at the height of Scott's game and while he is rediscovering his form, he is still a long way short of that mark. What about the compatibility of his game to the new course? This is a tight, tree-lined course with greens protected by deep bunkers and run-off areas, so accuracy off the tee and deftness around the green will be of foremost importance. Scott is not recognised as an accurate driver and even with his improved game of late, he still ranks 142nd in the PGA Tour's new stat category, 'Average distance from the centre of the fairway' (Garcia is 45th), which should be a better measure of 'Driving Accuracy' than the traditional measure. In terms of his ability to scramble, Scott ranks 171st (of 181) on the PGA Tour this year in that category, so this course hardly looks ideal for Scott's game. Garcia's game is built around his driving and his deftness around the green, so this course should suit far better. But the clincher is that Garcia co-designed this course with Greg Norman which explains why there is such an emphasis upon driving and creativity around the greens. He has played and walked the course more times than anyone else in this field and has talked in interviews about how the holes were designed with a view to 'fitting his eye'. On a standard TPC course, Scott would be the easy pick in this matchup, but not this week.
[unofficial rd1 system play: Singh V tb Rollins +120]
