Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2025

[WhatsHisNuts]

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/isg_vemo_2025.pdf

SUMMARY via Google Gemini
Vanguard's 2025 economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. They believe that the US economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in 2024. They also expect inflation to remain above 2.5% for most of 2025. However, they believe that the "era of sound money" will continue, with interest rates remaining above the rate of inflation. This should lead to solid fixed income returns over the next 10 years.
Vanguard is also cautious on equities, as valuations are stretched in some parts of the market. However, they believe that there are still opportunities for long-term investors in a diversified portfolio of fixed income and globally diversified equities.
Overall, Vanguard's outlook for 2025 is positive, but they urge investors to be aware of the risks and to maintain a diversified portfolio.

 

[ageecee]

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/isg_vemo_2025.pdf

SUMMARY via Google Gemini
Vanguard's 2025 economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. They believe that the US economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in 2024. They also expect inflation to remain above 2.5% for most of 2025. However, they believe that the "era of sound money" will continue, with interest rates remaining above the rate of inflation. This should lead to solid fixed income returns over the next 10 years.
Vanguard is also cautious on equities, as valuations are stretched in some parts of the market. However, they believe that there are still opportunities for long-term investors in a diversified portfolio of fixed income and globally diversified equities.
Overall, Vanguard's outlook for 2025 is positive, but they urge investors to be aware of the risks and to maintain a diversified portfolio.

What's your stock picks for 2025? What sectors do you think will be hot this year?

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

What's your stock picks for 2025? What sectors do you think will be hot this year?

The vast majority of my holdings will stay in Total Market an S&P500 Index funds. At this stage, I want to BE the market more than I need to BEAT the market.

That said, my individual stock picks are mostly ones I'm sticking with (newer adds noted):
VRT (Best positioned AI infrastructure provider)
MA (People are stupid and bad with money)
COST (Best retail business model IMO)
SPGI (Near monopoly, "toll collector")
ASML (NEWLY added. Smitty mentioned them earlier this year and I'm in)
CRM (Tech that I think will be taking off)
INTU (Positioning themselves to be a "toll collector")
UBER (NEWLY added)
BKNG (NEWLY added)

I'm out of the physical real estate game (sold last investment property). Even though it has been shitty, leaving a stake in Fundrise to keep some RE exposure. Sold out of almost all my REITs last month.

Holding onto I Bonds in case there's another inflation spike.

Building my cash position will be a focus (using HYSA and Treasury Direct options).