Preview & outright plays:
The 12th oldest event on the PGA Tour and the only one that is named for a player. The Byron Nelson Classic honors the player who, despite Tiger's streak last year and maybe his streak at the moment, still holds the record for the most consecutive PGA Tour wins and who won the inaugural event in 1944. One of the best fields outside the Majors has assembled this week and the prominence of this event has been signaled by the price money on offer: $4.5 million.
While Els and Mickelson make their first, and ultimately frustrating, appearances since the Masters, Woods makes his this week and seeks to extend his run of victories which currently stands at three. He is a previous winner of this event (1997) and finished one shot out of the three-way playoff last year despite an opening round 73. He is difficult to oppose as a winner of this event, but as a wagering proposition then 7/4 is just too short, particularly given the need for accuracy and more importantly, good putting in this event. Woods may be the leading money winner on Tour, but he ranks 91st in driving accuracy and 75th in the putting stats and that makes the value in 7/4 disappear.
The event is played over two courses: the TPC at Four Seasons Resort (also referred to as the TPC at Las Colinas) and Cottonwood Valley. The latter had been viewed as an easy course. It averaged a shot easier than Las Colinas, despite being a shot higher in par. That differential narrowed a little last year when early Spring rain made the Bermuda rough a more difficult proposition at both courses and Cottonwood Valley was no longer a haven for big hitters. Similar conditions are expected this week, but as in previous years, it is expected that the event will be won with the short game and not off the tee.
While Woods is passed over and Love has withdrawn from the field, the three outright picks this week are Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk. Mickelson has played in this event every year since 1996 and in that time he has recorded all but two rounds in the 60s, has won the event once (1996) and finished 2nd in a playoff last year. It defies the assumption that you have to straight off the tee in this event. He was a frustrating 2nd last week as a win-only pick and the fact remains that he has finished in the top-3 of four of his last five events, but has won none of them. It was not a problem that particularly afflicted him last year and so he is retained though maybe it would be best if he were not leading after 54 holes!
Vijay Singh has only ever played this event twice. He withdrew when the event was reduced to 36 holes in 1994 and last year he finished 41st. That aside, this is an event that should have suited his game even before he jumped to #1 on the PGA Tour putting stats. His current form is excellent, rather too much like Els, Love and the Mickelson of today, he really does not convert enough contentions in victories on the PGA Tour. With that in mind, his best value is probably with the 'without Woods' markets and unfortunately there is only one on offer this week: at Centrebet.
To complete an unfortunate trio of 'nearly men', Jim Furyk is added to the list. When he wins, almost exclusively in Las Vegas, he is very impressive, but all too often he finished in the top-10 without really challenging for the lead. This is reflected in his history at this event, though he did manage a top-5 finish in 1997. Coming off consecutive top-10 finishes, he should again go close this week on a course that suits his game. He is joint top of the putting stats with Singh and is in the top-20 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. He is good enough to win here, but experience suggests that a place-only bet is the best proposition for Furyk.
Outright plays:
Phil Mickelson to win 11/1 e.w. @
Stanley
Vijay Singh to win 11/1 e.w. @
Centrebet [w/o Woods market]
Jim Furyk to finish in the top-four ('show') 15/2 @
Olympic * this is the expected line, if less than 7/1 then the play is 33/4 @
Centrebet *
