Verizon Byron Nelson Classic

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding
Sutton -105 over Verplank @ $plays

Picking up a few shares of Singh @WSEX inter @ $9 (11/1).
Shot low score at TPC yesterday and with decent showing today should set around top of leaderboard in position to make a little profit maybe.

 

[Stanley]

Update:

No 1st round plays and there is a huge disparity in the scoring on the two courses so will update state of plays after the 2nd round. Just worth reporting though that the average score yesterday on the TPC was 70.92 and on Cottonwood Valley it was 69.01, a huge differential. Even when accounting for player quality on each course using the Sagarin ratings, the differential is still 1.72 shots

On that basis, time to take advantage of some lines that don't take this into account!

2nd round plays:

Greg Chalmers to beat Stuart Appleby -130 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
John Daly to beat Fred Couples +115 @ GoTo Casino [2 units]
Shigeki Maruyama to beat Steve Flesch +110 @ GoTo Casino [3 units]
Brian Gay to beat Scott Verplank +118 @ Five Dimes
Hal Sutton to beat Scott Verplank -105 @ Moneyplays

 

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Was glad to see your play on Gay vs Verplank Stan.The more I looked at that match this morning the better I liked it,however the last 2 weeks have had me 2nd quessing what I was actually seeing.

 

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Singh did make move to leaders and am selling 6 of 8 shares @ $16 buying one share of Tiger @ $20,sticking $4 in my pocket and taking free shot with 2 contracts on Singh and 1 on Tiger for Tourney.

 

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at the cut todays matches 0-2

Sutton loses to Verplank by by 3
Chalmers loses to Appleby by 2

Am totally baffled how 1 and 2 round match selections play fine on TPC and dog it at Cottonwood.

72 holes at cut 2-1-1
Parny/Sutton 4 up
Furyk/Duval 9 down
Parny/Duval5 down
Janzen/Tway push
Mick/Singh 7 down
Choi/Coceres loss by 9
Gay/Tway win by 6
Janzen/Lehman win by 1
Tiger top 4 10th

Outrights Parny tied for 10th

Spent extra time capping this week after 2 shortened weeks with Derby and trip and thought I had 2 majors traps with Janzen yesterday and Chalmers today only to lose both.Yesterday had me scratching my head on the 5 3ball matches in combo producing only one win however today same matches produce 1 loss and Janzen beats Tway playing the tougher course

Got a long haul on remaining 72 holes but have not given up on week as yet.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 0-5-0 and -9.65 units

Yikes! Where did that day come from? Yesterday, Cottonwood Valley played almost two shots easier than the TPC course; today it was only 0.5 shots! Still an advantage, though very small, and still the plays stunk. Chalmers lost to Appleby by two, Daly lost to Couples by eight, Maruyama lost to Flesch by two, Gay lost to Verplank by one and Sutton lost to Verplank by three. Ugly!

At least there's better news with the 72-hole plays. Three of the six plays were decided at the cut and all were winners. Day beat Daly by eight, Mickelson beat Els by seven and Singh beat Els by fourteen. In the other three, Furyk trails Weir by four, Leonard leads Appleby by one and Appleby trails Armour by two. In the outrights, Furyk and Mickelson recovered to make the cut, but still have a lot to make up on the leaders, while Singh is best-placed in 3rd position.

Back in the morning with the 3rd round plays. Got the feeling that Mr. Murphy owes us big time, DTB

 

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My exact sentiments Stan.Ole Murph has been working overtime.
3rd round
72 hole cont @ Oly
Woods -110 over Singh currently 3down
3rd round matches
Woods - 120 (-1.5) srokes over Weir @ WSEX
Brooks -105 over Geiberger @ $plays
Watts -107 over Brooks @ 5dimes
Armour -108 over Hnatiuk @ 5dimes
Peoples -112 over Waite @ 5dimes
Gay -124 overBrowne @ 5dimes

 

[Stanley]

3rd round plays:

Bob May to beat Jason Gore -138 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Phil Mickelson to beat Hal Sutton -150 @ Moneyplays
Tiger Woods to beat Vijay Singh -180 @ Sportfanatik

No great value out there today IMO

 

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3rd round results 3-2-1
Brooks/Geiberger win by 1
Watts/Brooks win by 4
Armour/Hnatiuk win by 2
Peoples/Waite push
Gay/Browne loss by 5
Tiger - 1 1/2 strokes Loss
Weir won by 4 heads up

72 holes still struggling but Duvals falter closes some ground.

Trying to pick up a bill in interactives and selling 1 of 2 remaining shares in Singh for $20 and picking up 1 share Watts $4,1 share Price $6,and one share Leonard $10 total $20
Giving 5 players one contract each at net cost of +$4.
If I knew all it took was wager on Tiger to bring him down to average would throw $10 token wager on him weekly.Think after 2 wagers involving him all year I may set record this week on different ways to wager and lose on a player in a week.

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 1-2-0 and -1.30 units

Having a real tough time with the 18-hole plays this week! May did at least record a four-shot win for the double play, but they were costly losses with Mickelson and Woods, both lost by two shots. In the 72-hole plays that remain, Furyk trails Weir by five, Leonard leads Appleby by six and Appleby trails Armour by two. As in Europe, the best chance of a profitable week is with the outrights and Singh lies just one shot out of the lead in 3rd place. The other two have no chance: Furyk is 35th and Mickelson 56th.

 

[Stanley]

4th round plays:

Glen Day to beat Tommy Armour +115 @ Moneyplays
Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -160 @ Sportfanatik [3 units]
Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson -160 @ Carib
Nick Price to beat Brian Watts -150 @ WSEX

 

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one quick one before line changes.
Double play on each
Singh +125 over Leonard @ $plays
Leonard -120 + 1 1/2 strokes over Singh WSEX

 

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Note on above: if you prefer straight scalp Leonard is +130 vs Singh in Oly cont with both tied,however would prefer chance to win both myself.

 

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adding 4th round
Parny -115 over May @ Oly
Toms -110 over Perry @ Oly
Watts -115 over Brown @5dimes
Peoples -107 over Waite @ 5dimes
Brookes +100 over Beem @ $plays
(scalp avaiable @ Sportingbet with Beem 11/8 but better incorporate tie there if you do)

Adding outright e/w 1/2 unit each @ Surrey
Watts 25/1
Goods odds considering his position and use to winning with Asians plus don't think he'll fold considering gutsy performance final day in British open few years back.

 

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final 4th round matches 4-4-1
Singh/Leonard ordeal 2wins 2 losses
Parny/May loss by 1
Toms/Perry push
Brooks/Beem loss by 4
Watts/Browne win by 2
Peoples/Waite win by 5
remaining 72 holes
Parny/Sutton loss
Furyk/Duval loss
Parny/Duval loss
Mick/singh loss
Tiger/Singh win
Tiger top 4 Win
Totals for week 11-14 ytd 125-117
3balls week - 3.5 ytd -.25
Outrights Parny way down list,Watts missed place by stroke.week -1 1/2 ytd + 6.45

Three major occurances this week for me, none of which were positve.
Dropped to(-) in 3balls on year.
Lost largest moneyline bet on year (-130)
Had 1st 3 week losing streak in 3 years I've been posting them.

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 4-0-0 and +6.15 units for the day; 9-9-0 and -1.02 units for the week

Final day sweep, but given Friday's plays and results elsewhere today, hard to get enthusiastic about it! Day beat Armour by one, Woods beat Garcia by two and Mickelson by three, while Price beat Watts by one. Saved some face with those wins. In the remaining 72-hole plays, Furyk lost to Weir by four, Leonard beat Allenby by eight and Appleby lost to Armour by four.

Update on outrights: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Singh proved just how ridiculous the PGA Tour putting stats really are today. This week he reverted back to type and it cost him a run at this title. His putting was painful to watch when it was featured today and he fell back to 11th overall. Mickelson and Furyk finished well out of the place positions in 28th and 37th respectively.

Roll on tomorrow and the start of a new week

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 213-168; +48.02 units
Outright plays: 8-49; -14.25 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups/props: 307-273; +28.48 units
Outright plays: 36-182; +85.63 units