Vig Soccer 2020
- Thread starter Vig
- Start date
- Feb 5, 2016
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Would love some CL chatter, I'll put up some leans (not bets) now, then post tomorrow based on all factors including any conversation (if any) here.
Leans:
Over 3.5 PSG/Dortmund
PSG win
Dortmund TT o/1 (nearly unimaginable they get shut out, BUT a 1-0 win is all PSG needs, maybe the game under is the play?)
Atletico +1 (I think most are expecting LP to find a way to move on, but that thinking begets at least a 1-0 win by Liverpool, to force more time. Kind of a given, no? I'd make the TO QUALIFY odds equal on both sides, but LP to move on is +105 and Atletico -145. Just smells a little fishy to me)
Under 2.5 Liverpool/Atletico
RB Leipzig win (Almost a gimme to me)
Under 3.5 Valencia/Atalanta
Leans:
Over 3.5 PSG/Dortmund
PSG win
Dortmund TT o/1 (nearly unimaginable they get shut out, BUT a 1-0 win is all PSG needs, maybe the game under is the play?)
Atletico +1 (I think most are expecting LP to find a way to move on, but that thinking begets at least a 1-0 win by Liverpool, to force more time. Kind of a given, no? I'd make the TO QUALIFY odds equal on both sides, but LP to move on is +105 and Atletico -145. Just smells a little fishy to me)
Under 2.5 Liverpool/Atletico
RB Leipzig win (Almost a gimme to me)
Under 3.5 Valencia/Atalanta
- Feb 5, 2016
- 1,382
- 17
- 38
- Feb 5, 2016
- 1,382
- 17
- 38
The more I think about the Liverpool total, it actually seems kinda high (I'd think under would be more like -145 or more), which to me says over. We'd expect Atletico to pack it in and snuff out the first goal, but an away goal for them would be absolutely huge. Gotta always consider the unexpected. Definitely need to sleep on this game, and keep my ear to the ground.
I have sat on the sidelines here, and haven't played this yet. I was originally looking at Leipzig & over, but lines definitely haven't been moving that way. May drop the over, and just go with RBL I just don't see how they don't get a result back at home. That is clearly the obvious way to go, and we all know that when something looks obvious strange things can happen. Tottenham banged up, and can't score although they will need to press here. I am going to keep a close eye on this one for the next few hours.
- Feb 5, 2016
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Valencia under turned ugly quickly with two penalties given up in the FH. I expected a spirited effort to sell out and stop Atalanta's attack as a face saving measure, and more of a rest on our laurels approach from Atalanta. Bad idea.
More of a good idea IMO, no need to lay it on Liverpool if you're going that route, it'll probably take some time for them to score, and the line should drop a good bit via live betting...
Already was on the PSG over, and Bason put that up so no need for redundancy there.
Still going to wait a touch, but the TO QUALIFY odds moved more to where I thought they should be in Liverpool, so I'm getting on it
Liverpool advances -105 v Atletico Madrid
More of a good idea IMO, no need to lay it on Liverpool if you're going that route, it'll probably take some time for them to score, and the line should drop a good bit via live betting...
Already was on the PSG over, and Bason put that up so no need for redundancy there.
Still going to wait a touch, but the TO QUALIFY odds moved more to where I thought they should be in Liverpool, so I'm getting on it
Liverpool advances -105 v Atletico Madrid
Good Luck Vig, it looks like we all need the over in the PSG/Dortmund game. I am waiting to see if I can get Dortmund +1 at a decent price as the line keeps steaming on PSG, thoughts on a side? I really like the over, so I am torn if I should even bother with the side. I agree with your Liverpool sentiments, I have taken some Liverpool action, and have some cash in the back pocket should I need to add in game.
- Feb 5, 2016
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I'm staying away from the PSG side, I think the line is a little too inviting if you like PSG considering they're home, need to win, and have the more star laden lineup. Again, I think there will be better opportunities on the side during the game
- Feb 5, 2016
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Hopefully some money was gained from some of my good advice yesterday
Europa
Leverkusen +110 @ Rangers
Rangers haven't been very consistent in their own league but managed to get by Braga in the last round of Euro. Meanwhile Leverkusen has been in great form playing well against Dortmund, Leipzig, and dispatching the better Portuguese team Porto in Euro. Leverkusen has been climbing up the world club rankings (I see 13th atm), meanwhile Rangers have been slipping further down (128th). Everything on paper says this is a decent pick, and even if something should go wrong, the second leg will provide even more opportunity for profit.
Europa
Leverkusen +110 @ Rangers
Rangers haven't been very consistent in their own league but managed to get by Braga in the last round of Euro. Meanwhile Leverkusen has been in great form playing well against Dortmund, Leipzig, and dispatching the better Portuguese team Porto in Euro. Leverkusen has been climbing up the world club rankings (I see 13th atm), meanwhile Rangers have been slipping further down (128th). Everything on paper says this is a decent pick, and even if something should go wrong, the second leg will provide even more opportunity for profit.
- Feb 5, 2016
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52-42
Still two European leagues playing games that I loosely follow, so I'm not completely uninformed. Going easy on anything I put up here moving forward is highly recommended.
Turkey
o/3 -105 Alanyaspor v Gaziantep
This total has no business being set this high, I'll bite on at least three
Still two European leagues playing games that I loosely follow, so I'm not completely uninformed. Going easy on anything I put up here moving forward is highly recommended.
Turkey
o/3 -105 Alanyaspor v Gaziantep
This total has no business being set this high, I'll bite on at least three
- Feb 5, 2016
- 1,382
- 17
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Little late to the party on Zenit in Russia, but I'll be looking to live bet it and post if I see something. Coming out of their winter break, they took part in two scoreless draws. Now they're home, facing Ural who's given up the second most goals in the league.
- Feb 5, 2016
- 1,382
- 17
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Belarus winner
Aussie A League Sydney derby
Sydney has double double revenge in this spot. Back to back shutout losses to WSW, so I think it's a given that Sydney scores in this game, they're just too good in their league. Winning 79% of their games this season, and very difficult to score on. Also WSW is home, it's a derby, they're on back to back H2H wins, and their getting a cheap -125 for the double chance. Thought about this a few ways, I don't think we can count on BTTS even though I can see it easily, IMO the highest likelihood outcome in this game is...
Sydney +105 @ WSW
Aussie A League Sydney derby
Sydney has double double revenge in this spot. Back to back shutout losses to WSW, so I think it's a given that Sydney scores in this game, they're just too good in their league. Winning 79% of their games this season, and very difficult to score on. Also WSW is home, it's a derby, they're on back to back H2H wins, and their getting a cheap -125 for the double chance. Thought about this a few ways, I don't think we can count on BTTS even though I can see it easily, IMO the highest likelihood outcome in this game is...
Sydney +105 @ WSW
