VILLANOVA!!!!

[DerekNJND]

Nova -6 300/270
ok i HATE favorites of 4-10 points in the tourney, but if you wanna play favs, not too many options today on that theory...

THEREFORE villanova opens a can on 'zona. Zonas a streaky team, so is nova. Kicker is Nova is CONSISTENTLY streaky if that makes sense haha.

Anyhow, this play is based on pure value brothers. If nova had whooped monmouth like they shouldve, by 40 or so, and zona hadnt whooped wisky reeeeeeeeeal good, this line would be double digits.

Nova struggled against monmouth early, as some #1's tend to do. Zona played Waaaaaaaaaaaay over their heads. Basketball is a game of runs. Today Nova makes the run back to glory and Zona cant keep up. This is the "reverse first round" theory that I like to use. High seeeds that struggle first round playing overachieving lower seeds usually leads to an ass whoopin

see: Gonzaga vs. Indy

If you buy into this, UNC is a good play today too, but they fukked me too badly the other night in the 2nd half so im stayin away. Gun to head, UNC wins by Doubl Digs as well.

win or lose been a great weekend up a little over a grand since thursday, even though my money pool is fukked cuz i had michigan state in the final four. hey, I'll take the 1,050 bucks instead of the $500 prize money, right??
GL ALL

 

[johnnyb.]

no need for me to start a new thread, as this is my P.O.D. too!!!!

good luck to us!

 

[gman2]

did arizona play waaaaayyyy over their heads.
or did they finally show signs of playing how many expected them to play at the beginning of the season? :shrug:
that's the thing with arizona. sometimes it seems like they pull great efforts out of their ass. but they certainly are talented enough to win every time they step on the floor against any team in the country. but they're equally capable of losing to houston.

 

[DerekNJND]

did arizona play waaaaayyyy over their heads.
or did they finally show signs of playing how many expected them to play at the beginning of the season? :shrug:
that's the thing with arizona. sometimes it seems like they pull great efforts out of their ass. but they certainly are talented enough to win every time they step on the floor against any team in the country. but they're equally capable of losing to houston.

GMAN, you are EXACTLY right.

this bet is based on zona coming out as COLD today as they were HOT on Friday.....cold start against nova ==double digit win

 

[johnnyb.]

i said it somewhere else but i think nova is the team zona was in the 90's. exceptional guards with a stud big man.

line being only 6.5 is a bargain to me with home crowd.

 

[DerekNJND]

yeah anytime you get a #1 seed at less than 8 in the second round is value...

dont get me wrong, zona has the talent to win, but i doubt they scorch the cotton like they did friday....god knows they will NEED it to stay close


that bein said, im not as fast to jump on memphis bandwagon....sweated out wins with memphis 1st half and for the game on fri, but 8.5 is my most HATED number to bet. Just cant do it...

 

[gjn23]

not sure why 6.5 is such a shocker of a line......let's look at the other 1 seeds:

duke -8 (gw)
mem -7.5 (buck)
uconn -9 (ky)

i'd bet that arizona would be favored all those teams (gw-bukc-ky) on a neutral court so the 6-7 point spread vs nova isnt that shocking and i highly doubt that the margin of victory vs wisc/monmouth on fri meant a 4-6 point dip in this line

 

[blgstocks]

I usually think a high seed that struggle first round is an indication that they arent here to play. I then fade that team . See Tennessee.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

I usually think a high seed that struggle first round is an indication that they arent here to play. I then fade that team . See Tennessee.

That's a logical approach, and I always feel that way after I have lost money on the high seeded team.

 

[AU2001]

tough luck once again derek.

you and dirty diapers managed to lose on the same game, that's tough...

i liked your pick and your logic

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

tough luck once again derek.

you and dirty diapers managed to lose on the same game, that's tough...

i liked your pick and your logic

AU2001 - LOL... I thought you would chime in. I lost my ML wager on Zona, but I also won some cash with the points. Way to contribute...

 

[DerekNJND]

tough luck once again derek.

you and dirty diapers managed to lose on the same game, that's tough...

i liked your pick and your logic

add something to this board or go the hell away seriously man. you bring nothing to the table when you criticize someone who just made a grand over the weekend while all you did was wack off

yea good thing i bet them in the first half -3.5 too huh?

and good thing I won this yesterday?


1) BET ID=154230171
Straight Wager 03/18/06 15:14 ET
300.00/250.00 (paid 550.00) Result: Wager Won
IndianaU 80
Gonzaga 90 03/18/06 (20:10 ET)
Gonzaga -3 (-120)
Bought 0.5 point(s)

and good thing i'm up now 950 for the weekend

Go search my threads and find my posted plays starting on thursday, OSU halftime, Memphis 1st half, memphis game, zags yesterday...over 700 in profit just in plays i had time to post.....unc and nova in first half sum it all up. Where are your posted winners?? YOU HAVE NONE but you do have balls to laugh at the one bet i lose out of my 10 this weekend

When was the last time you even POSTED a play loser??

you cant touch me mother fukker shut the fuk up

and yea, my language is wrong but you are completely unjustified to enter someone's post and criticize AFTER THE FACT when someone loses, especially when you have never won shit.

 

[DerekNJND]

I usually think a high seed that struggle first round is an indication that they arent here to play. I then fade that team . See Tennessee.

oh yea right

see texas
see Gonzaga

 

[DerekNJND]

not sure why 6.5 is such a shocker of a line......let's look at the other 1 seeds:

duke -8 (gw)
mem -7.5 (buck)
uconn -9 (ky)

i'd bet that arizona would be favored all those teams (gw-bukc-ky) on a neutral court so the 6-7 point spread vs nova isnt that shocking and i highly doubt that the margin of victory vs wisc/monmouth on fri meant a 4-6 point dip in this line

ok thanks for the logical input, next time why dont you post a play or just stay out of the thread?

 

[DerekNJND]

not sure why 6.5 is such a shocker of a line......let's look at the other 1 seeds:

duke -8 (gw)
mem -7.5 (buck)
uconn -9 (ky)

i'd bet that arizona would be favored all those teams (gw-bukc-ky) on a neutral court so the 6-7 point spread vs nova isnt that shocking and i highly doubt that the margin of victory vs wisc/monmouth on fri meant a 4-6 point dip in this line

no not zonas win alone but nova's pathetic performance against monmouth deflated the line

 

[gjn23]

no not zonas win alone but nova's pathetic performance against monmouth deflated the line

really?

do you think one game vs a crap 16 seed made the line 4 points less than it would have been?

do you really think nova should have been -9/-10-11 on a neutral court?

thought 6-7 was about right vs arizona

 

[DerekNJND]

really?

do you think one game vs a crap 16 seed made the line 4 points less than it would have been?

do you really think nova should have been -9/-10-11 on a neutral court?

thought 6-7 was about right vs arizona

absolutely

#4 team in the country, has been in the top 3 the entire year versus a team not even receiving poll votes?

Lets forget the tourney seeds for a second and look at the big picture...

My point is If Uconn had manhandled Monmouth by 40 points, and Wisky hadnt gotten trounced by zona 35-11 in the first 8 minutes this line would have been 10 today

your point about the other #1 seeds all having single digit spreads today is IRRELEVANT because all of the #1's struggled mightily in their first round matchups and could have easily lost

 

[gman2]

vegas would not make a tourney-tested team like arizona double digit dogs to anybody, especially considering the cats were fringe top 25 a few months ago. same principle applied to kentucky. two programs who didnt live up to expectations but certainly have talent and werent going to roll over to the #1 seeds today. a 50 point win over monmouth wouldnt have changed anything.

 

[DerekNJND]

vegas would not make a tourney-tested team like arizona double digit dogs to anybody, especially considering the cats were fringe top 25 a few months ago. same principle applied to kentucky. two programs who didnt live up to expectations but certainly have talent and werent going to roll over to the #1 seeds today. a 50 point win over monmouth wouldnt have changed anything.

disagree again

if uconn had not spent 75% of the game losing to ALBANY YES uconn would have been DD favorites

usually agree with you gman, not on this one tho bro

u guys are implying that performance in previous tourney rounds doesnt affect the spread for the next game?? that is absurd

i won my grand this weekend, ill stick with my theory thankyou anyway

 

[gjn23]

no chance

the lines are based on vegas power numbers

vegas doesnt sit there and say if nova beats monmouth by 15 then the line is 6....if nova beats monmouth by 30 then the line vs arizona will be 11......line was gonna be 6-7 either way

no chance arizona is a dd dog to anybody in this tourney....duke and uconn would likey have been 7-8 point favs as well