WC2018 хорошо !

[Snafu]

so it begins. i don't set any maximum unit bets, last time i had like +50u in Germany - Brazil match and rest of the tournament i played 1-5u. So when the moment comes it's all in.

i laid off all team futures because lines were mostly pretty inflated and didn't feel like going through different scenarios to get best out of them. i don't see winner coming outside Brazil/Germany pair.

my prediction:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/...1,30,4,9,5,14,17,25,21,31,9,17,14,21,17,21,17

i can see this folding down to Ger-Bra final where Germany gets beaten just like they did to Brazil.


just one future from bet365:
top England Premier league goalscorer Salah +1600 x 2u
Egypt plays against two pretty horrible teams and Salah may be late substitute in Uruguay match,
or more like "game time decision". Kane is happy if he gets fourth match... other teams with EPL players have wider talent.


First match

if arabs can keep up pressure on russians they actually have a chance to win this.
ref is Pitana from Argentina and this guy doesn't hold back when giving cards (obviously it's up to the matches he has been refereeing). Yellow Home2.07 - Away2.64 - Total4.71 based on 83 international matches
https://us.soccerway.com/referees/nestor-pitana/115731/matches/

i'm sure both teams are aware of this and take it easy:
cards U3? -125 2u

1st half correct score 1-1 +1000 1u

FT DRAW +333 2u

team total Russia U1? +108 2u

russian spectators will be merciless if team doesn't win this (or falls behind)
and whistling/booing will be mindblowing. match is played in Moscow.

can't wait.... :mj07:

Good luck guys :toast:

 

[kickserv]

Snafu joins the list of Madjackers throwing down tons of wagers, nope Madjackers are not fucking around.

Although Snafu has long way to go to catch DZkurby

 

[kickserv]

1st half correct score 1-1 +1000 1u

I hope you are correct................


http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?642591-June-14th-World-Cup-Action

 

[kickserv]

1st half correct score 1-1 +1000 1u

FT DRAW +333 2u

team total Russia U1? +108 2u

 

[Snafu]

1-3 -3u

biggest play obviously Morocco, they won African Nations Championship and have already played 11 internationals this year, six of them were ANC. Even if the squad have changed, they still have players that have played together a lot compared to other teams. Iran has been playing pretty shitty opponents and those have been only friendlies.

Morocco - Iran
to win +130 x 3
-1? +350 1u
to win 1st half +228 1u
corners Morocco -1 +104 2u
Interestingly this match has ref from Turkey: Cakir C. (Tur)


Uruguay should win this with ease, but odds are a bit steep.
Egypt - Uruguay
O2 -158 2u
ref B.Kuipers

both teams are ok with a draw, spanish team/coaching is question mark how team copes with it.
Spain - Portugal
DRAW +236 2u
ref is Italian G.Rochi

 

[Snafu]

finally morocco scores.. wait... :facepalm:

pending

Spain - Portugal
DRAW +236 2u

adding

corners O9 -102 3u
corners Spain O4? -150 2u
bookings O3 -106 2u

:0corn

 

[Snafu]

3-5-1 -1.48u
3-8 -4.48u

saturday

first game could be closer than what people think
France -1? -131 3u
France tt O2 -147 2u


Argentina-Iceland
O2? -113 3u
1st half O1 -109 3u
Iceland O? +109
corners U9? -110 3u I'd like to think that both teams try to avoid corner kicks.
Iceland has been playing awful defense in their last matches,
wouldn't be surprised if they take real beating here.

:0008

 

[Snafu]

so far
2-3-1 -4.35u
5-11 -8.83u

well done Messi, well done. Yesterdays and todays games show the difference between him and Ronaldo.

Peru was super lucky getting into games, Paraguay lost to Venezuela (W2-D6-L10) at home and wasn't qualified. Then Peru barely beat New Zealand ,0-0 and 2-0.

Denmark isn't exactly soccer giant either... but this match pretty much decides which qualifies.

Denmark +130 2u and -1? +380 1u
O2 +120 3u
corners O8? -117 3u

edit: adding Croatia - Niger game here too

now that first match was draw, they both have decent shot to qualify even if they draw this match, loser is out.

DRAW +270 2u
bookings O3? +100 3u
team cards Croatia 1? +162 2u

i can see this being an easily heating up match...

 

[Snafu]

unreal that they couldn't get a few more...

more:

1st half O1 +117 3u
Nigeria tt O? -120 2u

 

[Snafu]

FUCK long write up just vanished :shrug:

Germany
Brazil
-----------------
+106 5u


Serbia to win -103 3u
Serbia win to nil +182 2u
Serbia tt O1? +149 2u

cards O3 -105 2u
"Averaging just over two cards per game, Diedhiou (Senegal) is statistically the most lenient ref going this summer's World Cup in Russia." I think i have seen this guy refereeing before and he is pretty good ref.

so far
3-5-1 -2.56u
8-16 -11.39u

 

[DZ]

Snaf, if he?s the most ?lenient? ref, why go with over bookings? Wouldn?t the under make more sense?
gl

 

[Snafu]

DZ, that was based on both teams 5 latest competitive matches:

booking totals:
Costa Rica WC quals 3-6-3-4-3

Serbia 5-5-5(1R)-0-5

i thought ref sets total lower than it should have been, just one booking so far :0008

 

[Snafu]

card count finally comes through...
4 vs 1 counter attack and Serbia player just tosses it god knows where... :facepalm: :facepalm:

small profit anyway


Germany - Mexico
above parlay pending

U3 -125 2u

team cards Germany U? +150 2u

 

[Snafu]

suddenly i get France 2002 team flashback with this Germany team... :scared

 

[Snafu]

well, germans got what they deserved and Mexico looked good. actually, it could have been 3-0 easily.

parlay is loser and game plays even...

last match:

Brazil - Switzerland
I think Brazil will put up a good show tonight after watching this match.
Swizz have had a good run with their latest matches but opponents have been average at the best (+spain and portugal = 1point).

Brazil
-1? +130 4u
-2? +300 1u
O2? +120 2u

corners O9 -135 2u
corners Brazil -2 -143 2u

 

[Snafu]

surprisingly Brazil can't score another...

monday, first 5u play of the tournament:

Sweden to win +114 5u - South Korea

if Sweden can't win this they are out. But if they win they can be pain in the ass for both Germany and Mexico.


btw, if Germany is 2nd in their group and Brazil wins, they meet in first round.

 

[Englishman]

I think you were very unlucky not to win your Brazil bet. Another day they win this game 5-1.

I'm still not convinced Neymar is fit. Also, I really dislike the douche bag, but fully fit might make Brazil unbeatable.

IMHO Switzerland are not that good. I also liked Brazil to win but didn't play it. Laughingly, Switzerland are ranked 6 in the world!!! Built on the back of a cupcake friendly schedule....think Alabama vs Toledo South High School.

I think all the European teams, with the exception of Spain and maybe Poland, are seriously overrated.

 

[Snafu]

well, it's been unlucky opening for sure, one shy bookings or corners all the time. this happens and it will turn around, it's just a first round and all teams haven't even played yet.

after sunday 10-20 -23.39u

adding one play to Swe-SK match, pretty interesting stats:

in SKoreas last twenty matches, only once other team had more corner kicks. that was Iran WC qual match where corners were 2-1. Obviously most of the matches have been friendlies and opponents level has varied a lot. And looks like Sweden allows corners against active teams.

corners SKorea +? +112 3u

let's see if we have friendly trend here... :shrug:

 

[Snafu]

well well, corners 6-5 to sweden. dying seconds in injury time:
that handball (that wasn't called) was going over the end line... = 6th corner


1-1 +2.70

Belgium - Panama
i'm afraid to play this big favorites... so, let's hope 2-0...

Belgium -1? -140 4u
Belgium win to nil -150 3u
corners Panama +5? -108 3u


btw (not playing) will there be penalty is +195, pretty low odds for that. NO with -233 is almost playable...

:0008

 

[Snafu]

Belgium +6 corners... FFFUUUCCCKKKKKK

other than that ok result, monday so far 3-2 +6.46u


England - Tunis

Inexperienced team with 2-5-3... and Pickford... to win -214... really ?
i checked lineups for previous practice matches and this England's formation haven't played much together.
also, hotheaded Tunis vs young guns, card count might get high ?

England to win -206 <- dropping like stone and i so would like to place 5u here... but i won't

Tunis or draw +188 2u
Tunis to win +800 1u

O2 -143 2u

bookings O3? +110 2u
will there be a red card YES +467 1u

first player to score
Naim Sliti, Tunis +2404 1u


rule britannia lalalallaaa :mj06: