Dr. Bob
Dr. Bob
BOISE ST. (-22.5) 44 Louisiana Tech 10
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Oct-01 - Stats Matchup
Boise State is 38-15 ATS all-time at home, including 18-2 ATS in conference home games when not laying 26 points or more (26-7 ATS in all conference home games). I certainly don?t mind backing that trend with a very good Boise State team that is even better than normal offensively with freshman Kellen Moore at quarterback and also very strong defensively (4.4 yards per play allowed teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Moore certainly proved himself with a fantastic 24 for 36 passing for 386 yards and 9.7 yards per pass play against a very good Oregon secondary and the Broncos? defense held the Ducks? great rushing attack to just 4.8 yards per rushing play in their upset road win in Eugene (Oregon would average 5.7 yprp at home against an average defensive team). Louisiana Tech started the season with an upset win over a bad Mississippi State team, but they were out-gained 3.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl in that game. The Bulldogs followed that misleading victory with a 0-29 loss at Kansas that was actually more lopsided than the score indicates, as Louisiana Tech was out-gained 4.5 yppl to 7.6 yppl in that game. Overall, Louisiana Tech has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and allow 6.2 yppl against an average team. Louisiana Tech has had some big special teams play to atone for their bad play from the line of scrimmage, but Boise State traditionally has strong special teams and my math favors the Broncos by 34 points even with Louisiana Tech having a solid special teams advantage. Louisiana Tech has allowed an average of 334 passing yards at 6.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppp against an average team. Moore, meanwhile, has averaged 9.8 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback (after adjusting for Oregon being without starting CB Thurmond when they played Boise). Moore and the Boise State offense will have an easy time throwing the football and the Broncos rarely let up at home. I just don?t see how Louisiana Tech is going to score more than a couple of times in this game given that quarterback Taylor Bennett has completed just 26 of 73 passes in two games against Division 1A competition (Miss State and Kansas) and the Bulldogs? rush attack is 0.8 yards per rushing play below average (4.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). The Bulldogs averaged just 268 total yards at 4.0 yppl against Miss State and Kansas and Boise State is much better defensively than either of those teams. I?ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.
