Comps
Big Al McMordie
ST LOUIS CARDINALS -130
There's been a recent trend in Major League pitchers who were relievers and then converted to starters for their teams. And that trend is...they're not very successful. Two names that come to mind are the Cards' Braden Looper (4.94 ERA last year in his first season as a starter) and the A's Justin Duchscherer (already on the DL after only one start this year). But St. Louis righthander Adam Wainwright seems to have bucked that trend. Wainwright had a 3.70 ERA last season in 32 starts (his first season as a member of the rotation) and this year, he is continuing that success with a 3.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first two starts. Wainwright is just entering his prime (26 years old) and he should have no problem continuing this new-found success on the mound. He couldn't have asked for a better matchup tonight against a Milwaukee team that is 2-8 in its last 10 meetings against St. Louis. Furthermore he has a bullpen behind him that is one of the best in the Majors this year. St. Louis is 10-4 overall this year, including 6-1 at home. Take the Cards. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Vernon Croy
DEVIL RAYS / TWINS UNDER 8?
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays and their hosts the Minnesota Twins will square of tonight in the Metrodome, as they send two quality hurlers to the hill to face each other. The Twins will show case veteran thrower Livan Hernandez (3-0, 2.57 ERA) who signed a free-agent contract with the team in the off season. The right-hander, has not disappointed, showing he is capable of being a work horse, going 7 innings each time to out, while allowing just seven runs and 21 hits, while walking only one in his three starts. His pitching opponent James Shields(1-1,3.00 ERA) is currently the Rays top man on the hill, statistically speaking, and is off a solid effort last time out in Tropicana Field debut, allowing 2 ERs in 6 quality innings of work. He is a solid contributor in this Rays rotation, and is ready for another fine effort. The Rays bullpen is also much improved, and will support Shields well , if need be. Considering the pitching matchup, and the two average batting orders, that will face them Im expecting a fairly low scoring game that will fail to eclipse the number. Final notes & Key Trends: The Twins have averaged 2.7 RPG at home this season. The under is 6-0 in Shields L/6 road starts. These teams have only eclipsed the total in 2 of their L/10 meetings. Play Under
Karl Garrett
3♦ NY YANKEES
Boston and the Yankees just finished up a weekend set at Fenway, and now they will do it again tonight, this time in the Bronx. Both Buchholz and Wang hook up for the second time in 5 days, and I will lay the wood with the Yanks and Wang in this one. No knock on Clay, as he did do a nice job holding New York to 1 earned run in his 6 innings of work, but Wang is dealing on a different level right now. Wang tossed the 2 hitter at the Sox last Friday, and is now 3-0 with an ERA just over 1 to start the new season! Wang is also 4-1 dating back to last year over his last 5 starts against the Red Sox. New York was able to double-up Boston in the Bronx last year, winning 6 of the 9 games played in the House that Ruth Built, and after dropping 2 of 3 this past weekend, look for the Yankees to open this set with the win. I am on the Bronx Bombers tonight.
Sports Gambling Hotline
3♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES +105
Tonight we will come right back with Baltimore to get back on track at home against the White Sox. The O's bats were held down last night by the Blue Jays, and Shaun Marcum, but we don't think that Jose Contreras will be able to do the same this evening. Contreras doesn't look as though he is going to right his ship anytime soon, as the vet is off to an 0-2 start, and has allowed an alarming 8 runs in his first 12 innings of work - and to the slow-starting Tigers no less! Last year, Baltimore did pound Contreras to a tune of 11 runs in 11 innings, as the Orioles handed Jose a pair of losses in as many starts. Adam Loewen is better than his first 2 starts indicate, and the Orioles did take 3 of the 4 games played last year at Camden Yards. Baltimore is still a solid 6-2 at home even with last night's loss, and we will jump on them tonight at this price. Play on the Orioles.
Bob Akmens
MARINERS / ATHLETICS UNDER 8
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 154 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978. The computer models I?ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games. Several interesting factors in today?s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread):
♦The SEATTLE MARINERS go UNDER when:
-Felix Hernandez starts on the road: 7-3 UNDER last 10
♦The OAKLAND A?s go UNDER when:
-Joe Blanton starts at home: 8-2 UNDER last 10
Vegas Experts
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Considering how the Timberwolves have never covered a game in April for coach Randy Whitman (0-9 ATS over last two seasons), we don't know why they'd start doing so here. Milwaukee posted 151 points Monday night against Chicago and Minnesota would have nowhere near the firepower neccessary to contend if something like that were to occur here. Since the T'Wolves have allowed their last seven opponents to all score 100+, it very well may.
Great Lakes Sports
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more this year, and 82-60 ATS after three or more consecutive losses since 1996 while the Minnesota Timberwolves are a terrible 8-21 ATS when playing in April the last three years, and 39-69 ATS when playing in the second half of the season the last three years. We look for the Milwaukee Bucks to dismantle the Minnesota Timberwolves for the road ATS Win & cover tonight.
Jake Timlin
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
The Diamondbacks win yesterday was more like it as Arizona dominated the Giants like they were suppose to. Well thanks to Arizona going with Webb today look blowout once again we play the Diamondbacks minus the run line this afternoon. After all with Arizona going with Webb who is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and the Giants going with Zito who is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA Arizona clearly has the advantage on the bump. Now to seal the deal at the plate for a blowout it?s the Diamondbacks offense that continues to shine thanks to leading the league in both runs and home runs. Bottom line with the Diamondbacks off to a hot start and San Francisco just 2-7 over the last 9 games Zito starts backing Arizona -1 ? runs is the only call this afternoon.
Scott Delaney
1♦ DALLAS MAVERICKS
We play the Mavericks against the Hornets tonight, as New Orleans will come out flat after blasting the Clippers, and Avery Johnson's bunch will come in looking to gear up for what could be an Opening Round preview between these two. The Mavs are going to be either the seventh or eighth seed in the Western Conference. It's real simple: win tonight and head to New Orleans to start the postseason as the No. 7 seed; lose and you get the top-seeded Lakers. Dallas has won 12 straight at home against New Orleans by an average of 13.0 points, so I am banking on the first scenario. The Hornets roll into this one on a 1-5 ATS skid following an ATS win, while the Mavs, albeit having an off year, are 37-15 ATS in the their last 52 games in divisional clashes. As part of that 12-game run in the series, Dallas has covered seven of its last 10 hosting the Hornets.
Tom Freese
CHICAGO BULLS
Chicago is 27-18 ATS after losing 4 or 5 of their 6 games and they are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Bulls are 8-3 ATS their last 11 home games. Toronto is 9-25 ATS after allowing 75 or less points in their last game and they are 3-16 ATS after allowing 85 or less points in their last game. The Raptors are 9-19 ATS off a win by 15 or more points in their last game.
Chris Jordan
2♦ UTAH JAZZ
Utah has already clinched the Northwest Division title, but is tied with Houston and Phoenix for the fourth-best record in the West. And let's face it, home-court advantage would mean a lot to the Jazz, who own the best home record in the league at 37-4. Now I know that Utah is mired in a 20-game losing streak in San Antonio, including three losses in last year's Western Conference Finals, but the Jazz have won the last two meetings against the Spurs, including a 90-64 whitewash on April 4. The Jazz are also on ATS runs of 7-0 overall, 13-3 against the Southwest Division and 22-7 in Western Conference play; meanwhile, the Spurs have dropped five of six to the books, seven of nine to the Northwest and 10 of 13 following an ATS loss.
Jimmy The Moose
INDIANA PACERS
Both team's will be glad to close out a disappointing season tonight. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. In their last 18 games following a SU loss the Knicks are 5-13 ATS. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. In their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record they are 6-2 ATS. The Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their alst 11 games vs. a losing SU record. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Pacers
Jim Feist
BOSTON CELTICS
Boston has had the No. 1 seed sewn up for a while, yet that hasn't stopped them from winning or covering. The Celtics are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS the last 11 games. This is the final regular season home game and they have a shot at 66-wins, third best in team history. New Jersey is on vacation after this game, and playing like a team that doesn't care, at 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS the last 8 games. Boston's bench is young, hungry and very good. Play the Celtics!
Marc Lawrence
ATLANTA BRAVES
Braves take on the Marlins behind Tim Hudson at Dolphin Stadium in Game Two of this three game set looking to rebound off last night's 4-0 whitewash loss. Hudson certainly enjoys hurling against Florida as evidenced by his 9-2 career team start mark with a 2.47 ERA, including 5-1 with a 2.33 ERA in this park. With Hudson zoned in KW form with 2 walks and 12 strikeouts in his three starts this season, look for the Braves to even the score here tonight.
Dave Cokin
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Bargain price on the Cardinals with their #1 (Wainwright) against the Brewers #4/5 (Villanueva). Pitcher vs. hitter numbers favor Wainwright and I'm seeing Villanueva get into big trouble the second time through the lineup. He's borderline to stay in the Milwaukee rotation with Gallardo coming off the DL, and might only survive because Dave Bush has been brutal. I'll side with the Cardinals here.
Bobby Maxwell
3♦ HOUSTON ASTROS -105
Very tough way for the Astros to lose Tuesday's game, dominating the Phillies for eight innings and then having new closer Jose Valverde come in and immediately get knocked around to the tune of four runs and lose 4-3. Today Houston has got to bounce back from that one and even though he hasn't been good this season, look for Astros' starter Roy Oswalt (0-3, 9.00 ERA) to deliver a gem for them in their time of need. Oswalt has given up 17 runs this season in losses to Florida, the Cubs and Padres. But he's too good of a pitcher to continue stinking it up and he knows his team needs him after the ugly Tuesday loss. Oswalt has had great success against the Phillies, leading Houston to five straight wins, including three in Philadelphia. Three of those five wins he held them to one or zero runs. Kyle Kendrick (1-1, 6.14 ERA) is on the mound for the Phillies after a debacle in New York a week ago. He lasted only 2.1 innings, allowing seven runs - but only one was earned. He walked six and gave up four hits in the 8-2 Philadelphia loss. The Astros are 8-2 when Oswalt faces N.L. East competition and 23-7 when he pitches on Wednesdays. Head-to-head, Houston is 10-4 in the last 14 in Philadelphia and 17-8 in the last 25 overall. We're siding with Oswalt because he knows how to pitch and how to beat the Phillies.
Matt Rivers
BOSTON RED SOX
If Chien Ming Wang hurls another gem like he did in Fenway in that last start then I will tip my cap to him and say so be it. But it is extremely tough for any pitcher to do what he did when facing tough professional hitters some five days later. These guys are too good to not make some necessary adjustments and even with David Ortiz' slump the guy is a killer and could get back into form at the drop of a hat. Combine Big Papi with Manny, Ellsbury, Drew and one of the best overall lineups in the game in the Sox and I will take my chances here with Terry Francona's group. Clay Bucholz obviously has a huge upside with his tremendous stuff. The righty threw that no-hitter last year and looked unreal. Things have been a little different this season in his starts against New York and Toronto but I am just fine with the Boston hurler as he is better than average and I will trust him in this revenge situation. Joe Girardi's club is old and we are starting to really see it with the injuries to Posada, Jeter and others and also will probably be without stud middle reliever Joba Chamberlain. In this heated and hated rivalry it is never impossible for the underdog to win the game. I expect Wang to be a little off today and not resemble the same guy as last week and for the Sox to prove they are the overall superior team in another victory between these squads. Look for Bucholz to put in a solid effort and for the BoSox to win something like 6-3.
Tony Weston
3♦ HOUSTON ASTROS
While Houston Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt has had his share of struggles this year, look for him to break out of his slump against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. The Astros dropped one to the Phillies last night, but have won two of their last three games overall and have had pretty good success against Philadelphia when Oswalt takes the mound. Houston is 5-0 its last five meetings when Oswalt gets a start against Philadelphia. In the last four games the Phillies have averaged only three runs per game. The Astros are also 8-2 in Oswalt?s last 10 starts against the NL East. Also consider that Houston is 10-4 its last 14 games in Philadelphia and the Astros are 17-8 their last 25 games against the Phillies. Take Oswalt as the Astros starting pitcher and take Houston on the road.
Terron Chapman
DETROIT TIGERS +149
Much has been made of Detroit's early season struggles, but lost in the discussion, is the struggles of the defending AL central champs. The Indians have not fared much better than their division rivals, going 5-9 to start the season and now welcome the Tigers to Jacobs Field this evening. They will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound who has struggled to say the least so far this season, posting an 0-2 record with a 11.67 ERA. C.C. looks to get back on track against a team he went 3-1 against last year in five starts but struggled somewhat posting a 5.29 ERA in those starts. The Tigers come into this evenings game winners of their last two and are starting to swing the bats like everyone expected. The Tigers scored 17 runs in their two game sweep of the Twins and come into this game with some momentum. The Tigers come into this game with nothing to lose as the pressure to win and start performing up to expectations now falls on the shoulders of the Indians. The tribe has not fared well in this role lately, going 1-7 their last 8 as chalk. The Indians are just 2-5 in Sabathia's last 7 home starts against the Tigers. With Sabathia struggling and the offense struggling as well, hitting just .241 so far this season, 2nd worst in the AL, we can find good value in making a slight play on the visiting team here.
Matt Fargo
COLORADO ROCKIES
San Diego took this opener last night behind another brilliant performance from Randy Wolf which came as a huge surprise. That makes two straight wins for the Padres but that is where it gets capped as they have yet to win more than two straight this season. The offense broke out for six runs but it was still another poor hitting night as San Diego has now hit .233 or worse in four of its last five games and has averaged only 2.8 rpg over its last six games. The Padres are hitting just .233 against lefties. The Rockies were shutout for the second time this season but I expect a big bounce back here. They struggled to start the season by averaging just 1.7 rpg in their first seven games but upped that to 6.8 rpg in their next five games before last night. Colorado has won four of its last seven games after starting the year 1-5. The loss last night snapped a five-game winning streak in this series but the Rockies are still a solid 53-26 in their last 79 against a team with a winning record dating back to last season. When we get down to the bottom rotation starters, it is time to look to go against them. When that pitcher is the 5th starter and has yet to allow a run in his first two starts, we really take a look at a go against. That is the case with Justin Germano who has not allowed a run in his first two starts of the season. That may line the public behind him, but I am clearly going the other way. San Diego has scored one run in those games and run support is contagious. He is 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in five starts against the Rockies. I have never been high on Mark Redman but he has been solid for Colorado and he does have some good things going his way here. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings against Arizona in his season opener, but allowed two runs in five innings against the Braves last time out. Most important, there were no walks unlike the first outing which showed some uncharacteristic wildness. He has a 3.86 ERA since coming to the Rockies last season and in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, he has a 1.74 career ERA covering 10.1 innings.
