Robert Ferringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 7.5 Arizona at San Francisco (3:45 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #901 Arizona (-165) over San Francisco (3:45 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
The ?over? is 10-3-1 in Mark Wegner?s last 14 games behind home plate and 38-28 (58 percent) since the start of 2006. He has seen an average of 27 baserunners per game in his three behind the dish, and I don?t think Barry Zito?s curveball is going to be called a strike too often. Zito has been getting knocked around and is terrible in April (13-21 in his career) and average during the day. The Diamondbacks are crushing left-handed pitching, averaging over seven runs per game against six southpaws this year. Webb?s ERA is a little higher than his average in day games and against San Fran. I think if the Giants can just scratch out two runs here we should be good. Brandon Webb is 14-3 in April. He is an automatic play.
5.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 9.0 Atlanta at Florida (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-140) over Florida (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
There was a little bad blood last night between these two teams. I think both lineups are going to come to the park focused today and I think this one is going WAY over the total. Brian O?Nora is an ?over? ump and has seen an average of 10 runs, seven walks, and 19 hits in his three games behind home plate. The ?over? is 7-3 in Atlanta?s last 10 against a southpaw (Mark Hendrickson isn?t exactly lights out) and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Also, the ?over? is 51-22-5 in Florida?s last 78 divisional games. That?s a phenomenal trends. And with these lineups, bullpens, umps and this number I think we?re in a good spot. The Braves are down a closer (Soriano) and their best setup man (Moylan) from an already awful pen. If Hudson can't go seven - and if he does, we're going to win our side pretty handily - then the Braves bullpen is going to give up at least four runs on its own.
3-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 8.0 Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (10 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
Little known fact: Brad Penny is an ?over? pitcher. Yeah. The guy can hurl, but his games have a penchant for sailing the total. The ?over? is 26-10 in his last 36 home starts and 24-10 with him as a home favorite. The ?over? is also a ridiculous 23-4 in the last 27 meetings between these two clubs. Again: 23-4. The Pirates can swing the bat this year. The over is 8-2 in their last ten and 9-3-1 in their last 13 on the road. Mix in the fact that Paul Maholm stinks and that the Dodgers wear out left-handed pitching and I think we?re in good shape here. Oh yeah, and we have Jim Reynolds behind the dish. The ?over? is 23-13 in his last 36 and an absurd 10-2 in his last 12. I?m looking for a tight zone and two big innings to send us over.
2-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 9.0 Washington at New York Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+180) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
All three of Mike Winters? games have sailed the total this year. He?s seen an average of over 11 runs per game while issuing eight walks and 20 hits per outing. That tight strike zone could get exploited by two tough lineups today. Washington is going to break out soon, and when guys like Delgado and Wright are as locked in as they are the Mets can put up runs in a hurry. Heck, the Mets could cover this one on their own if they get to Matt Chico. The ?over? is 17-5-1 in New York?s last 23 divisional games and 9-2-1 in their last 12 against a left-handed starter. The ?over? is also 6-2 in Matt Chico?s last eight starts overall. If John Maine isn?t getting that corner strike his ball becomes awful hittable awful quick. If it's a wild, high-scoring games that gives the Nats a much better chance to win. And as long as New York is sub-.500 they can't be laying this type of number.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (+105) over Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
I know Roy Oswalt has been terrible, but I will take him with plus-money. The Astros were the better team yesterday before a fluke collapse. They get us back that money and then some.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-135) over Texas (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
Jesse Litsch is really developing into a fine young pitcher. The Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 on turf and I think very soon we're going to see the Blue Jays get very hot. The swept the Rangers in Texas, and the Rangers aren't a great road team, so I see a similar beatdown coming.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+110) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
James Shields is 7-17 on the road and the Rays are 6-20 in their last 26 trips to Minnesota. Twins is playing great - with the exception of awful, dreadful, pathetic eighth innings the last two nights. Tampa can't put that kind of late pressure on with their lineup though, and I think we're getting great odds here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Seattle (+100) over Oakland (7 p.m., Wednesday, April 16)
King Felix has been sensational to this point in the season and he always seems to throw exceptionally well against the A's. Oakland has been playing great, but I really am waiting for them to hit a wall playing in their fourth city in eight days. Again, these odds are off and just too good to overlook.
