Wednesday Service Plays 5/28/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
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Yankee Capper Full MLB
5 Units - Chicago Cubs -155
5 Units - Pirates/Reds Over 9
3 Units - St. Louis Cardinals -150
3 Units - Arizona Diamondbacks(Runline) +135
3 Units - White Sox/Indians Under 9
3 Units - Los Angeles Angels -130
2 Units - COlorado Rockies +155
2 Units - Twins/Royals Under
5 Units - Chicago Cubs -155
5 Units - Pirates/Reds Over 9
3 Units - St. Louis Cardinals -150
3 Units - Arizona Diamondbacks(Runline) +135
3 Units - White Sox/Indians Under 9
3 Units - Los Angeles Angels -130
2 Units - COlorado Rockies +155
2 Units - Twins/Royals Under
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I'm taking the points with DETROIT. After passing on the side in Game 1 (won with the 'under') I've successfully "zig-zagged" with my 'sides' in this series, cashing with Detroit in Game 2, Boston in Game 3 and back again with Detroit for Monday's Game 4. I'm going to break with that pattern here though and go back with the Pistons for the second straight game. Yes, the Celtics are a very talented team and yes, they've had a fantastic season. That being said, they've been over-valued against the pointspread for quite some time now. In fact, after getting blown out in Game 4, they're now an awful 5-11 ATS their last 16 games, including just 2-7 ATS their last nine. Conversely, the Pistons are now a healthy 8-4 ATS their last dozen games. Almost every team that came to Boston this season was intimidated before the game even began. That makes it very difficult to win. The teams were much like boxers that used to fight Mike Tyson in his prime. Excluding the Buster Douglas miracle in Japan, almost every fighter that got in the ring with Tyson was terrified of him. Then, along came the veteran battle-tested Evander Holyfield and he wasn't the least bit intimidated of Iron Mike. All of a sudden, "the bully was getting bullied," and Tyson found himself upset, not once but twice. I make the boxing analogy as, in this instance, I feel that the Pistons are much like Holyfield. Like the fighter, they're experienced and battle-tested. While they surely respect the Celtics, unlike other teams that come here, they don't fear them. They were the first team to beat the Celtics here in the regular season and they've been the only team to do so in the playoffs. Without the intimidation factor, the Celtics become much more beatable. The Pistons tend to thrive in these 'defensive' games, as we find them at a highly profitable 8-1 SU/ATS the last nine times they played a road game with a total ranging in the 170s. They also tend to respond well when coming off a strong defensive performance. In fact, they're 27-6 SU and 23-10 ATS their last 33 after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game. During the same stretch, they were 32-9 SU and 26-15 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Look for the playoff-tested Pistons to build on Monday's big win with another huge effort tonight. *Eastern Conf Finals GOY
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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR):
DETROIT REDWINGS vs PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
COMPLIMENTARY LVTR SELECTION: REDWINGS / PENGUINS OVER 5 (NHL)
Comments: We don't make many NHL selections but we have been perfect in the play-offs. Today's complimentary selection is on the OVER 5 in tonight's Redwings / Penguins match-up. Penguins are down and scoring has come at a minimum. When you have a team backed into the corner, they will loosen up and take more chances which either results in more production or more mistakes. Either way, it equates to more scoring for either side. Penguins can't afford to go down 3-1. they are at home where their comfort level should be increased and the Vegas line is set low at 5. If any game in this series is to go Over the number, it will be tonight.
Take the OVER 5
DETROIT REDWINGS vs PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
COMPLIMENTARY LVTR SELECTION: REDWINGS / PENGUINS OVER 5 (NHL)
Comments: We don't make many NHL selections but we have been perfect in the play-offs. Today's complimentary selection is on the OVER 5 in tonight's Redwings / Penguins match-up. Penguins are down and scoring has come at a minimum. When you have a team backed into the corner, they will loosen up and take more chances which either results in more production or more mistakes. Either way, it equates to more scoring for either side. Penguins can't afford to go down 3-1. they are at home where their comfort level should be increased and the Vegas line is set low at 5. If any game in this series is to go Over the number, it will be tonight.
Take the OVER 5
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GINA
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
The Celtics are 9-1 at home during the postseason, while the Pistons are 4-2 on the road. But, Detroit showed they could beat Boston in their house in Game 3. Go with the Pistons in a close defensive fight. Detroit has taken eight of the last 11 games in Boston and is 4-2 ATS in its last six at TD Banknorth Garden. The road team in this series has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings.
Detroit Pistons +5?
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
The Celtics are 9-1 at home during the postseason, while the Pistons are 4-2 on the road. But, Detroit showed they could beat Boston in their house in Game 3. Go with the Pistons in a close defensive fight. Detroit has taken eight of the last 11 games in Boston and is 4-2 ATS in its last six at TD Banknorth Garden. The road team in this series has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings.
Detroit Pistons +5?
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Ferrall
NL FREE B's FOR WED
CARDINALS -145 on ML over Astros--Wainwright gets things back on track for Cards in St.Louis. He's 3-0 at home and 3-0 career vs Houston. He's also won his only complete game of his career vs the Stros. Wandy Rodriguez is 1-4 career vs the Cardinals
Diamondbacks -165 on ML over Giants--Arizona is 20-6 within their division and face Sanchez and Giants tonight. Sanchez is 0-3 in four starts vs Arizona. Doug Davis has just one win in six starts vs Giants. I'm on the D'Bakcs because they are at home and their better than SF. Ariz is 19-9 at home and SF is 10-15 on road.
PADRES -135 on ML over Nationals--San Diego has won 23 of last 29 games against the Nats. They've won 10 straight sewries against Washington and look for the sweep tonight at Petco. Washington has lost 5 of last 6 in SD and are 3-11 there overall since the ballpark opened.
AL FREE B's FOR WED
ANGELS -130 on ML over Tigers--Saunders is 8-1 and tied with Dice K for most wins in AL. He;s got a 2.31 ERA and has won his last two starts. Angels get the sweep of the Tigers. Angels have won last two games in their last at bat. The Tigers have scored just 3 runs in their last 3 games.
Toronto +110 on ML over Oakland--Halladay is coming off his fifth complete game. The Jays have won 5 of 6, while the A's have won 5 straight. Harden is 2-0 in 3 home starts this yr, but is 0-3 lifetime vs the Blue Jays.
SEATTLE -120 on ML over Boston--Eric bedard finally looks good for once. He got lit up at yankee Stadium in his last outing. The Mariners have only 6 wins in their last 26 games. He has a 1.69 home ERA and is 2-1. Boston hits a miserable .163 against Bedard. Boston has dropped 13 of last 18 on road. They've dropped 4 of 5 on current trip
NL FREE B's FOR WED
CARDINALS -145 on ML over Astros--Wainwright gets things back on track for Cards in St.Louis. He's 3-0 at home and 3-0 career vs Houston. He's also won his only complete game of his career vs the Stros. Wandy Rodriguez is 1-4 career vs the Cardinals
Diamondbacks -165 on ML over Giants--Arizona is 20-6 within their division and face Sanchez and Giants tonight. Sanchez is 0-3 in four starts vs Arizona. Doug Davis has just one win in six starts vs Giants. I'm on the D'Bakcs because they are at home and their better than SF. Ariz is 19-9 at home and SF is 10-15 on road.
PADRES -135 on ML over Nationals--San Diego has won 23 of last 29 games against the Nats. They've won 10 straight sewries against Washington and look for the sweep tonight at Petco. Washington has lost 5 of last 6 in SD and are 3-11 there overall since the ballpark opened.
AL FREE B's FOR WED
ANGELS -130 on ML over Tigers--Saunders is 8-1 and tied with Dice K for most wins in AL. He;s got a 2.31 ERA and has won his last two starts. Angels get the sweep of the Tigers. Angels have won last two games in their last at bat. The Tigers have scored just 3 runs in their last 3 games.
Toronto +110 on ML over Oakland--Halladay is coming off his fifth complete game. The Jays have won 5 of 6, while the A's have won 5 straight. Harden is 2-0 in 3 home starts this yr, but is 0-3 lifetime vs the Blue Jays.
SEATTLE -120 on ML over Boston--Eric bedard finally looks good for once. He got lit up at yankee Stadium in his last outing. The Mariners have only 6 wins in their last 26 games. He has a 1.69 home ERA and is 2-1. Boston hits a miserable .163 against Bedard. Boston has dropped 13 of last 18 on road. They've dropped 4 of 5 on current trip
These teams have alternated victories in this series so far and I expect that trend to continue tonight given that the Celtics apply to a very good 37-9-3 ATS subset of a 136-84-4 ATS playoff bounce- back situation. Detroit is only 6-15 ATS under coach Flip Saunders in playoff road games following a victory (1-3 ATS this year), including 0-7 ATS as a road dog of 4 points or more. My ratings favor the Celtics by 6 points, so the line is fair, and I?ll take Boston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars at - 5 or less.
My predicted total is 170 points and I?ll lean under at 172 points or more.
2-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars at -5 or less
Winning Pointa Online
NBA
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
8:35 pm
**PREFERRED
Boston* over Detroit by 14
Detroit had a no-layup rule in effect for Game 4and the Celtics couldn't figure it out in time,attempting
only 9 three-pointers and making only one. Pistons
figure to play the same way and after being called
for many fouls in Game 4, that won't change on the road. Celtics' Game 4 shooting percentage of 31.8%does figure to change. Chauncey Billups' bad
hamstring figures to become an anchoring handicap
for the Pistons soon enough.
BOSTON 96-82
Ultra
7:05 pm
**PREFERRED
OVER 9.5
Texas at Tampa Bay
Garza is coming off 7 innings of shutout ball vs. Baltimore and his short-career numbers say that ain't happening twice in a row. Rangers are hitting .409 against him. Gabbard wasn't much to begin with but he has already been on the DL, then at the bottom of a brawl pile early this season and he has a lot of issues to crawl out from, like 23 walks vs. 18 strikeouts so far. Hey, good luck kid, you'll need it.
MLB
DETROIT (Galarraga) +115 over LA ANGELS (Saunders)
It's been a rough couple of months for the Detroit
pitching staff, but one bright spot has been the
emergence of Armando Galarraga, who's looked
sharp in his seven starts (3.70 ERA). He looks very
attractive in this setting, taking on an LA team that
has struggled against righthanders at home (only
9-10, -$480). And for all their woes, Detroit does
handle lefthanders well (6-3, +$235 with a healthy
5.8 runs per game). Joe Saunders has been tough,
but don't count the Tigers out yet especially when available at a nice underdog price.
NBA
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
8:35 pm
**PREFERRED
Boston* over Detroit by 14
Detroit had a no-layup rule in effect for Game 4and the Celtics couldn't figure it out in time,attempting
only 9 three-pointers and making only one. Pistons
figure to play the same way and after being called
for many fouls in Game 4, that won't change on the road. Celtics' Game 4 shooting percentage of 31.8%does figure to change. Chauncey Billups' bad
hamstring figures to become an anchoring handicap
for the Pistons soon enough.
BOSTON 96-82
Ultra
7:05 pm
**PREFERRED
OVER 9.5
Texas at Tampa Bay
Garza is coming off 7 innings of shutout ball vs. Baltimore and his short-career numbers say that ain't happening twice in a row. Rangers are hitting .409 against him. Gabbard wasn't much to begin with but he has already been on the DL, then at the bottom of a brawl pile early this season and he has a lot of issues to crawl out from, like 23 walks vs. 18 strikeouts so far. Hey, good luck kid, you'll need it.
MLB
DETROIT (Galarraga) +115 over LA ANGELS (Saunders)
It's been a rough couple of months for the Detroit
pitching staff, but one bright spot has been the
emergence of Armando Galarraga, who's looked
sharp in his seven starts (3.70 ERA). He looks very
attractive in this setting, taking on an LA team that
has struggled against righthanders at home (only
9-10, -$480). And for all their woes, Detroit does
handle lefthanders well (6-3, +$235 with a healthy
5.8 runs per game). Joe Saunders has been tough,
but don't count the Tigers out yet especially when available at a nice underdog price.
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Oscarxena Sports
Florida/NY Mets Over 9 -1.22 (3 Unit Play) - I have been doing well with this series so far picking two winners so I might as well go back to the well one more time tonight and I like this game Over the total. Scott Olsen is pitching for Florida and although Florida has went 8-2 so far this year in his starts and he has an outstanding 3.00 ERA in his road starts this year his command has been very suspect as he has only struck out 3 while walking 11 on the road. Olsen has also started eight games against the Mets and 7 out of 8 have went Over the total. Meanwhile for the Mets on the mound will be Oliver Perez and in his home starts so far this year he has a 5.60 ERA and he has struck out 16 while walking 15. In his last 10 starts against the Marlins to total has went Over 6 out of 10 times with a push. The HP umpire has shown a tendency towards the Under this year but I am going to ignore that and hope that these two pitcher's control issues put runners on base in which case these two offenses can cash in those runners and score runs tonight.
Florida/NY Mets Over 9 -1.22 (3 Unit Play) - I have been doing well with this series so far picking two winners so I might as well go back to the well one more time tonight and I like this game Over the total. Scott Olsen is pitching for Florida and although Florida has went 8-2 so far this year in his starts and he has an outstanding 3.00 ERA in his road starts this year his command has been very suspect as he has only struck out 3 while walking 11 on the road. Olsen has also started eight games against the Mets and 7 out of 8 have went Over the total. Meanwhile for the Mets on the mound will be Oliver Perez and in his home starts so far this year he has a 5.60 ERA and he has struck out 16 while walking 15. In his last 10 starts against the Marlins to total has went Over 6 out of 10 times with a push. The HP umpire has shown a tendency towards the Under this year but I am going to ignore that and hope that these two pitcher's control issues put runners on base in which case these two offenses can cash in those runners and score runs tonight.
Sports Monitor
Detroit Tigers (21-31) at Los Angeles Angels (32-22)
Angels -130 total 9
TRENDS:
The Angels are 16-11 at home this season. The Tigers are
9-17 on the road. The Tigers have lost 11 of their last 12
road games. The Angels have won 41 of the last 55 against
the Tigers.
GAME SUMMARY:
The AL West-leading Angels look to complete a three-game sweep
of the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday when the two close the
series in Anaheim.
SPORTS MONITOR
PREDICTION:
Angels 6 Tigers 4
Detroit Tigers (21-31) at Los Angeles Angels (32-22)
Angels -130 total 9
TRENDS:
The Angels are 16-11 at home this season. The Tigers are
9-17 on the road. The Tigers have lost 11 of their last 12
road games. The Angels have won 41 of the last 55 against
the Tigers.
GAME SUMMARY:
The AL West-leading Angels look to complete a three-game sweep
of the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday when the two close the
series in Anaheim.
SPORTS MONITOR
PREDICTION:
Angels 6 Tigers 4