Wednesday Service Plays 6/25/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
HONDO
June 25, 2008 -- The Cubs lost in typical heartbreaking Cubs fashion last night, rallying to load the bases in the bottom of the ninth before three straight whiffs sent HONDOto a defeat that slashed his earnings to 435 broglios.
Tonight, since the one and only Jimmy Shields is getting better all the time, Mr. Aitch will try to get by with a little help from his Rays - 10 units.
June 25, 2008 -- The Cubs lost in typical heartbreaking Cubs fashion last night, rallying to load the bases in the bottom of the ninth before three straight whiffs sent HONDOto a defeat that slashed his earnings to 435 broglios.
Tonight, since the one and only Jimmy Shields is getting better all the time, Mr. Aitch will try to get by with a little help from his Rays - 10 units.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
JIMMY THE MOOSE
Game: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: The Rangers have played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The under is also 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Feldman is on the mound for Texas tonight and the Rangers have played the under in 8 of his last 10 starts. The undre is 5-2 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Houston has played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Houston has played the under in 4 of Oswalt's last 5 starts. The under is 6-0 in Oswalt's last 6 starts vs. Texas. Play the under.
Game: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: The Rangers have played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The under is also 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Feldman is on the mound for Texas tonight and the Rangers have played the under in 8 of his last 10 starts. The undre is 5-2 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Houston has played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Houston has played the under in 4 of Oswalt's last 5 starts. The under is 6-0 in Oswalt's last 6 starts vs. Texas. Play the under.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
INTERLEAGUE
Tampa Bay (45-31) at Florida (40-36)
The battle of Florida continues at Dolphin Stadium, with the Rays? James Shields (4-5, 3.94) set to oppose Marlins youngster Ryan Tucker (2-1, 4.50) in the middle game of this three-game set. Tampa held on for a 6-4 win in Tuesday?s series-opener, improving to 7-3 in its last 10 games, including 3-1 against Florida. The Marlins, meanwhile, are now mired in a 4-7 funk. Going back to last June, the Rays are on a 5-1 run against Florida, but prior to this stretch, the Marlins had won 11 of 15 in this rivalry. Finally, the Marlins are 7-4 in the last 11 clashes at Dolphin Stadium, but the visitor is 7-3 in the last 10 dating to last season.
Despite last night?s defeat, Florida is on a 14-7 roll at home, but is now just 1-5 in its last six interleague home contests. Meanwhile, the Rays have dominated at home this season (30-13), but they?re still under .500 on the highway (15-18). Shields returned from an eight-day suspension and beat the Cubs 8-3 at home on Thursday, giving up all three runs on seven hits with two walks and nine strikeouts over 9 1/3 innings. However, now the right-hander goes out on the highway, where he has struggled this year (1-4, 6.99 ERA in seven starts). In fact, the Rays have lost 21 of Shields? last 29 starts as a visitor. Shields got rocked in his first-ever start against the Marlins in 2006 (seven runs and 10 hits allowed in five innings of an 8-5 road loss). However, he dominated the Fish in two starts last year (one home, one road), surrendering a combined three runs on 11 hits over 14 innings, walking three and striking out 17. Tampa Bay lost 4-3 at home, but won 7-2 in Miami. Tucker is coming off the best outing of his brief career, holding the Mariners to two runs on seven hits in six innings en route to an 8-3 road win a week ago tonight. Prior to that effort, he pitched at Tampa Bay, getting tagged for five runs on seven hits in five innings, losing 7-3. The right-hander?s only start at home came in his major-league debut June 8, and he allowed a run on just two hits over five innings, walking five and striking out six in a 9-2 victory.
The over is 2-0-1 in Tucker?s three starts, but the under is 3-1 in Shields? last four outings (2-0 on the road). The over is 5-1-1 in the last five series meetings (2-1-1 this year) and 7-1 in the last eight battles in Miami. Also, for the Marlins, the over is on streaks of 21-6-4 overall and 14-3-4 in interleague play. Conversely, for the Rays, the under trends include 16-7-1 overall, 4-2 on the road and 4-0 on the road versus right-handed starters, but the over is 23-5-1 in the team?s last 29 interleague road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
Philadelphia (42-36) at Oakland (42-34)
A?s rookie Greg Smith (4-5, 3.51) looks to even his season record when he opposes Kyle Kendrick (6-3, 5.06) and the Phillies as this three-game interleague series continues at McAfee Coliseum. Oakland topped Philadelphia 5-2 on Tuesday, sending the Phillies to their sixth straight defeat. The A?s are 13-7 in their last 20 contests, having alternated wins and losses in their last nine home games. Oakland is also on positive streaks of 21-8 as a favorite and 62-23 when hosting N.L. teams at McAfee Coliseum. Not only has Philadelphia dropped six in a row, but the team?s potent offense has been limited to two runs or fewer in five of the six defeats. Also, Charlie Manuel?s club has followed up a 14-4 hot streak by losing eight of nine, and the Phillies are now 4-14 in their last 18 interleague contests on the highway. These teams last met in 2005 in Oakland, with the A?s taking two of three. The host is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles. Kendrick is coming off one of his worst efforts of the season, as he got lit up for six runs on just six hits (two home runs) over three innings last Wednesday against the Red Sox, losing 7-4 at home. Prior to that outing, the Phillies had won five straight Kendrick starts, and even though the right-hander has an ERA north of 5.00, Philadelphia is 11-4 in his 15 starts in 2008, including 7-1 on the road.
Kendrick?s road ERA matches his overall ERA (5.06), and he?s allowed a total of 75 baserunners (57 hits, 18 walks) in 42 2/3 innings on the highway, which equates to a 1.76 WHIP. He has yet to face Oakland in his brief career. Smith produced near-identical numbers in his last two outings, both on the road at San Francisco and Arizona. In each start, the southpaw gave up one run and three hits, striking out four in five innings. He beat the Giants 5-1 and got a no-decision in Thursday?s 2-1 loss to the DBacks. Smith, who is making his first career start against Philadelphia, has been sharp at home (2-2, 2.84 ERA in six starts). He?s allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of those six contests.
Philadelphia continues to sport a bunch of under streaks, including 5-1 overall, 14-3 against the A.L. West, 7-3 on the road and 5-0 in interleague road games. Meanwhile, the over is 4-2-1 in Oakland?s last seven overall and 6-1-2 in its last nine as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OAKLAND
INTERLEAGUE
Tampa Bay (45-31) at Florida (40-36)
The battle of Florida continues at Dolphin Stadium, with the Rays? James Shields (4-5, 3.94) set to oppose Marlins youngster Ryan Tucker (2-1, 4.50) in the middle game of this three-game set. Tampa held on for a 6-4 win in Tuesday?s series-opener, improving to 7-3 in its last 10 games, including 3-1 against Florida. The Marlins, meanwhile, are now mired in a 4-7 funk. Going back to last June, the Rays are on a 5-1 run against Florida, but prior to this stretch, the Marlins had won 11 of 15 in this rivalry. Finally, the Marlins are 7-4 in the last 11 clashes at Dolphin Stadium, but the visitor is 7-3 in the last 10 dating to last season.
Despite last night?s defeat, Florida is on a 14-7 roll at home, but is now just 1-5 in its last six interleague home contests. Meanwhile, the Rays have dominated at home this season (30-13), but they?re still under .500 on the highway (15-18). Shields returned from an eight-day suspension and beat the Cubs 8-3 at home on Thursday, giving up all three runs on seven hits with two walks and nine strikeouts over 9 1/3 innings. However, now the right-hander goes out on the highway, where he has struggled this year (1-4, 6.99 ERA in seven starts). In fact, the Rays have lost 21 of Shields? last 29 starts as a visitor. Shields got rocked in his first-ever start against the Marlins in 2006 (seven runs and 10 hits allowed in five innings of an 8-5 road loss). However, he dominated the Fish in two starts last year (one home, one road), surrendering a combined three runs on 11 hits over 14 innings, walking three and striking out 17. Tampa Bay lost 4-3 at home, but won 7-2 in Miami. Tucker is coming off the best outing of his brief career, holding the Mariners to two runs on seven hits in six innings en route to an 8-3 road win a week ago tonight. Prior to that effort, he pitched at Tampa Bay, getting tagged for five runs on seven hits in five innings, losing 7-3. The right-hander?s only start at home came in his major-league debut June 8, and he allowed a run on just two hits over five innings, walking five and striking out six in a 9-2 victory.
The over is 2-0-1 in Tucker?s three starts, but the under is 3-1 in Shields? last four outings (2-0 on the road). The over is 5-1-1 in the last five series meetings (2-1-1 this year) and 7-1 in the last eight battles in Miami. Also, for the Marlins, the over is on streaks of 21-6-4 overall and 14-3-4 in interleague play. Conversely, for the Rays, the under trends include 16-7-1 overall, 4-2 on the road and 4-0 on the road versus right-handed starters, but the over is 23-5-1 in the team?s last 29 interleague road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
Philadelphia (42-36) at Oakland (42-34)
A?s rookie Greg Smith (4-5, 3.51) looks to even his season record when he opposes Kyle Kendrick (6-3, 5.06) and the Phillies as this three-game interleague series continues at McAfee Coliseum. Oakland topped Philadelphia 5-2 on Tuesday, sending the Phillies to their sixth straight defeat. The A?s are 13-7 in their last 20 contests, having alternated wins and losses in their last nine home games. Oakland is also on positive streaks of 21-8 as a favorite and 62-23 when hosting N.L. teams at McAfee Coliseum. Not only has Philadelphia dropped six in a row, but the team?s potent offense has been limited to two runs or fewer in five of the six defeats. Also, Charlie Manuel?s club has followed up a 14-4 hot streak by losing eight of nine, and the Phillies are now 4-14 in their last 18 interleague contests on the highway. These teams last met in 2005 in Oakland, with the A?s taking two of three. The host is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles. Kendrick is coming off one of his worst efforts of the season, as he got lit up for six runs on just six hits (two home runs) over three innings last Wednesday against the Red Sox, losing 7-4 at home. Prior to that outing, the Phillies had won five straight Kendrick starts, and even though the right-hander has an ERA north of 5.00, Philadelphia is 11-4 in his 15 starts in 2008, including 7-1 on the road.
Kendrick?s road ERA matches his overall ERA (5.06), and he?s allowed a total of 75 baserunners (57 hits, 18 walks) in 42 2/3 innings on the highway, which equates to a 1.76 WHIP. He has yet to face Oakland in his brief career. Smith produced near-identical numbers in his last two outings, both on the road at San Francisco and Arizona. In each start, the southpaw gave up one run and three hits, striking out four in five innings. He beat the Giants 5-1 and got a no-decision in Thursday?s 2-1 loss to the DBacks. Smith, who is making his first career start against Philadelphia, has been sharp at home (2-2, 2.84 ERA in six starts). He?s allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of those six contests.
Philadelphia continues to sport a bunch of under streaks, including 5-1 overall, 14-3 against the A.L. West, 7-3 on the road and 5-0 in interleague road games. Meanwhile, the over is 4-2-1 in Oakland?s last seven overall and 6-1-2 in its last nine as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OAKLAND
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
*** EZ WINNERS MLB ***
1 STAR: (901) MILWAUKEE (+$124) over Atlanta
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $124)
12:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (905) CINCINNATI (+$150) over Toronto
(Listing Harang only)
(Risking $100 to win $150)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (912) PITTSBURGH (+$163) over NY Yankees
(Listing Duke only)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (913) SEATTLE (+$183) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $183)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (919) TEXAS (+$137) over Houston
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $137)
7:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (901) MILWAUKEE (+$124) over Atlanta
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $124)
12:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (905) CINCINNATI (+$150) over Toronto
(Listing Harang only)
(Risking $100 to win $150)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (912) PITTSBURGH (+$163) over NY Yankees
(Listing Duke only)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
6:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (913) SEATTLE (+$183) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $183)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (919) TEXAS (+$137) over Houston
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $137)
7:05PM Central Time
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Rocketman
FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY (19-9 last 28)
Philadelphia @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Play On: 1* Oakland -120 (Kendrick/Smith) Listed
Philadelphia is 3-9 when playing on Wednesday this year. Philadelphia is 2-8 in Interleague play this year. Philadelphia is 1-6 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Oakland is 185-131 in June since 1997. Philadelphia has lost 6 in a row heading into tonight's game. Oakland bullpen has a 3.29 ERA overall this year and a 2.98 ERA at home this season. Kendrick has a 5.06 ERA overall this year, 5.06 ERA on the road this season and a 5.28 ERA his last 3 starts. Smith has a 3.51 ERA overall this year, 2.84 ERA at home this season adn a 3.31 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY (19-9 last 28)
Philadelphia @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Play On: 1* Oakland -120 (Kendrick/Smith) Listed
Philadelphia is 3-9 when playing on Wednesday this year. Philadelphia is 2-8 in Interleague play this year. Philadelphia is 1-6 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Oakland is 185-131 in June since 1997. Philadelphia has lost 6 in a row heading into tonight's game. Oakland bullpen has a 3.29 ERA overall this year and a 2.98 ERA at home this season. Kendrick has a 5.06 ERA overall this year, 5.06 ERA on the road this season and a 5.28 ERA his last 3 starts. Smith has a 3.51 ERA overall this year, 2.84 ERA at home this season adn a 3.31 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 2008 7:07PM
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Your pick will be graded at: -157 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* TORONTO over CINCINNATI
The Toronto Blue Jays lost Roy Halladay?s last home start. That is news. What it brings us tonight is arguably the best pitcher in the sport working with a determined focus, and a rejuvenated team behind him. And that means an excellent opportunity to step in.
Toronto is an amazing 42-11 in Halladay?s last 53 home starts. Only once in that entire span did the Blue Jays lose consecutive home starts by their ace. And in the 10 starts at home after losing the previous outing through this stretch, Halladay worked to a sizzling 1.64 over 76.2 innings. That is correct - he averaged nearly eight innings per start in those games. But that is not out of the ordinary for him, and while his 2.90 ERA over 114.2 innings has been eclipsed by a few other performers this season, note that he has been even better than that number indicates - of the 126 pitchers that have worked at last 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #9. He also can be dominating against teams that lack experience against him and the Reds have precious little of that - no member of last night?s starting lineup has more than three career at-bats vs. the Toronto right-hander.
Making this path easier is the new feeling around the Blue Jay clubhouse, with an under-achieving offense finding its groove again the last two days, and with last night?s return of Cito Gaston to Toronto providing a special spark - they banged out a season-high of 22 hits, with every position producing at least one run or rbi, and six different players had at least one extra-base hit. That adrenaline can easily carry over against the struggling Aaron Harang, who has worked to an ugly 1-6/4.88 tune on the road this season, and has lost his confidence in a dismal current slump.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays OFF
OFF
7.5
-169 -120
7.5
-166 -115
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 25 2008 10:05PM
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Your pick will be graded at: -119 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
Yesterday we took advantage of a bad read by the betting markets, who made a major move behind a slumping Philadelphia team to the point at which the Phillies were actually favored on this field at first pitch. Now the value is outstanding to step in once again.
No team in the Major?s is on a longer slide than the current 0-6 Philadelphia run, and it has not been a case of bad bounces - they have been out-scored by 20 runs in that span. It has been a case of both the offense (keyed by Chase Utley?s dismal 1-29 slide) and the pitching both breaking down, and it does not get any easier for them in their first look at Greg Smith. Smith brings us excellent value because his 3.51 has only been able to produce a 4-5 personal W/L tag (note that the A?s are 8-6 in all of his starts), and also note that he has performed to the same pattern that we see often from young left-handers - opponents have had a difficult time reading him on the first look. It has been a solid 2.84 so far this season against teams that had never faced him before. And with arguably the deepest bullpen in the Major?s behind him, by the time that the Phillies get comfortable in the box against his stuff it will already have been mission accomplished.
The flip side of that value equation is Kyle Kendrick. he sports a 6-3 record despite a 5.06 allowance, which means that he has been far more lucky than good. And this can be his own personal nightmare of a matchup. Kendrick sports one of the biggest left/right bias counts of any pitchers in the game through his young career, with left-handers rapping him to a .328 count, vs. .244 for right-handers. Not only can Oakland load up from that side, but the A?s will bring that unique patience to the batters box to create even more frustrations - last night they coaxed 108 pitches out of the precise Jamie Moyer in 6.2 innings, and ultimately he wore down. Having fought their way through against a crafty left-hander, that offense now gets to face the ideal batting practice guy for their swings.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -120
8.5
-120 -120
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS/HOUSTON Under
It should not be any surprise that we are getting behind Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman here, a pair of performers that bring much more to the table than the marketplace realizes. And with some key offensive injuries clouding the picture, it is even easier to pull the trigger.
Two weeks ago we wrote an ?Ace Report? column on Oswalt, which focused on how a bullpen session had turned his game around. We lost a difficult 6* Under ticket against him against the Yankees when a bobble by Miguel Tejada turned into eight runs, but were able to come right back with a 5* Under on him at Tampa Bay in his last outing. Now he brings that momentum to his home mound with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and we absolutely get the best of it in terms of value - when a guy has gone 29-7/2.40 in this ballpark in the three seasons heading into 2008, his current 5.48 ERA is absolutely headed for a correction. And the fact that he lost to the Rangers in Arlington earlier creates even more spark. But Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley were major factors in that game, and their absence severely hampers the Texas attack here.
Meanwhile has anyone pitched better without any notice at all than Scott Feldman? He shows up with just a single win beside his name this season, but has worked at least six full innings in eight of his nine starts, while going five in the other. He has worked to a solid 4.31 tune in that span despite being in a hitter?s park for five of the outings, and he shows the stuff to be able to compete here. Instead of the Arlington heat it is the air conditioning of Minute Maid Park, where these two teams were sitting at 2-1 into the bottom of the 8th inning last night, despite each having a weaker starter on the mound.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
9
-158 100
9
-157 -115
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals Jun 25 2008 7:10PM
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Your pick will be graded at: -153 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* ANGELS over WASHINGTON
In the current edition of ?Thinking Outside the Box?, we deal with Tim Redding?s rather remarkable season to-date, and here we have an outstanding opportunity to step in. We not only get the much better team, starting pitcher, and bullpen at a fair price, but also great timing as well.
Redding has been a a slightly above average pitcher this season, with a 4.12 ERA against a difficult schedule. But despite pitching for arguably the worst offense in the game, he has managed to pitch the Nationals to a 13-3 record in his 16 starts. In all other games they are 17-46. What are the odds of a 17-46 team going 13-3 behind a guy working to a 4.12 tune? Rather astronomical. And in the current run its has stretched the laws of baseball and logic even more - Redding has worked at a 5.71 clip over his last six starts, yet Washington won every game. What all that does is buy us about a quarter in terms of where this line really should be.
The Angels provide us with the ideal opponent to take advantage. Their 26-12 road tally is by far the best in the Major?s, and what we saw from Ervin Santana in his last outing at Philadelphia was exactly what we needed to see. Off of a stretch in which he had lost his way a bit, facing a tough offense in a hitter?s park could have been a nightmare for him. His major problem through his career has been giving up home runs on the road, and the Phillies are #2 at hitting balls into the seats. But Santana stifled them without an earned run over seven innings, with a dominating ratio of nine strikeouts vs. only two hits allowed. It also creates something most unexpected - this deep into the season, his road ERA is actually lower than his numbers from Anaheim. That means a great deal of confidence against a lineup that he can dominate, and with yesterday?s easy win bringing the entire bullpen in rested and ready the Nationals are hard-pressed to produce anything at all here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-155
8
-120 -152
8
-115
Orioles (RL) at Cubs (RL) Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: Cubs (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CHICAGO Run Line over BALTIMORE
There have not been many disappointing days for the Cubs at Wrigley this season - a 32-9 run pretty much sums it up. But Tuesday was such a game. They produced more base-runners than the Orioles, and had the only two home runs in the game. But what had been a solid defense hiccuped and allowed three unearned runs, and they failed to score despite having the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 9th. That is the kind of win that not only stings, but also creates a bounce-back spark, and we believe that pieces are in place for that to happen in a major way. So on a warm evening with the wind in a favorable direction, we will call for the blowout here.
Asking for the Cubs to get a margin in general is not asking much - 24 of those 32 Wrigley wins have come by two runs or more. And of those they did not break open, several were played under colder temperatures with the wind blowing in. Now an offense that has tattooed left-handers this season gets to face the pedestrian offerings of Brian Burres, and Burres is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this setting. First we get value from his 6-5 personal record this season, but that carries no meaning. He has worked to an ugly 5.24 in compiling that mark, and his last two outings are a good example of the kind of luck that he has had - he lasted only 11.2 innings, allowing nine runs on 15 hits, including three home runs, and five walks. Yet he walked way with a ?W? each time. And over his last five starts it has been a hideous 10.27 ERA and 2.15 WHIP, with nine home runs allowed over 23.2 innings. Yet he actually got tagged with only one defeat in that span. He does not have the stuff to get the ball past quality hitters, with only 39 strikeouts in 80.2 innings, and in five of his last six starts has had more fly-ball outs than ground-outs. He is an awful matchup for this particular environment, and with the best arms from the Baltimore bullpen getting pushed to extremes last night (33 pitches for Jim Johnson and 30 for George Sherrill), the latter innings have a chance to be just as ugly.
The flip side of the value equation is Ted Lilly?s 7-5/4.71 in the pitching forms, which makes him look rather average. Those numbers do not tell the true story of his current stuff. He indeed got off to a bad start this season, but it has been a 7-2/3.53 over his last 11 starts, with a dominating ratio of 69 strikeouts vs. only 57 hits allowed in that span. The Cubs have won his last six Wrigley starts by a combined 19 runs, and the bullpen is also well-positioned behind him to handle the end-game. But we expect those bullpen innings to merely be mop-up, as they protect what should be a big lead.
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Your pick will be graded at: -157 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* TORONTO over CINCINNATI
The Toronto Blue Jays lost Roy Halladay?s last home start. That is news. What it brings us tonight is arguably the best pitcher in the sport working with a determined focus, and a rejuvenated team behind him. And that means an excellent opportunity to step in.
Toronto is an amazing 42-11 in Halladay?s last 53 home starts. Only once in that entire span did the Blue Jays lose consecutive home starts by their ace. And in the 10 starts at home after losing the previous outing through this stretch, Halladay worked to a sizzling 1.64 over 76.2 innings. That is correct - he averaged nearly eight innings per start in those games. But that is not out of the ordinary for him, and while his 2.90 ERA over 114.2 innings has been eclipsed by a few other performers this season, note that he has been even better than that number indicates - of the 126 pitchers that have worked at last 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #9. He also can be dominating against teams that lack experience against him and the Reds have precious little of that - no member of last night?s starting lineup has more than three career at-bats vs. the Toronto right-hander.
Making this path easier is the new feeling around the Blue Jay clubhouse, with an under-achieving offense finding its groove again the last two days, and with last night?s return of Cito Gaston to Toronto providing a special spark - they banged out a season-high of 22 hits, with every position producing at least one run or rbi, and six different players had at least one extra-base hit. That adrenaline can easily carry over against the struggling Aaron Harang, who has worked to an ugly 1-6/4.88 tune on the road this season, and has lost his confidence in a dismal current slump.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays OFF
OFF
7.5
-169 -120
7.5
-166 -115
Philadelphia Phillies at Oakland Athletics Jun 25 2008 10:05PM
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Your pick will be graded at: -119 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* OAKLAND over PHILADELPHIA
Yesterday we took advantage of a bad read by the betting markets, who made a major move behind a slumping Philadelphia team to the point at which the Phillies were actually favored on this field at first pitch. Now the value is outstanding to step in once again.
No team in the Major?s is on a longer slide than the current 0-6 Philadelphia run, and it has not been a case of bad bounces - they have been out-scored by 20 runs in that span. It has been a case of both the offense (keyed by Chase Utley?s dismal 1-29 slide) and the pitching both breaking down, and it does not get any easier for them in their first look at Greg Smith. Smith brings us excellent value because his 3.51 has only been able to produce a 4-5 personal W/L tag (note that the A?s are 8-6 in all of his starts), and also note that he has performed to the same pattern that we see often from young left-handers - opponents have had a difficult time reading him on the first look. It has been a solid 2.84 so far this season against teams that had never faced him before. And with arguably the deepest bullpen in the Major?s behind him, by the time that the Phillies get comfortable in the box against his stuff it will already have been mission accomplished.
The flip side of that value equation is Kyle Kendrick. he sports a 6-3 record despite a 5.06 allowance, which means that he has been far more lucky than good. And this can be his own personal nightmare of a matchup. Kendrick sports one of the biggest left/right bias counts of any pitchers in the game through his young career, with left-handers rapping him to a .328 count, vs. .244 for right-handers. Not only can Oakland load up from that side, but the A?s will bring that unique patience to the batters box to create even more frustrations - last night they coaxed 108 pitches out of the precise Jamie Moyer in 6.2 innings, and ultimately he wore down. Having fought their way through against a crafty left-hander, that offense now gets to face the ideal batting practice guy for their swings.
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Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Athletics OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -120
8.5
-120 -120
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS/HOUSTON Under
It should not be any surprise that we are getting behind Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman here, a pair of performers that bring much more to the table than the marketplace realizes. And with some key offensive injuries clouding the picture, it is even easier to pull the trigger.
Two weeks ago we wrote an ?Ace Report? column on Oswalt, which focused on how a bullpen session had turned his game around. We lost a difficult 6* Under ticket against him against the Yankees when a bobble by Miguel Tejada turned into eight runs, but were able to come right back with a 5* Under on him at Tampa Bay in his last outing. Now he brings that momentum to his home mound with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and we absolutely get the best of it in terms of value - when a guy has gone 29-7/2.40 in this ballpark in the three seasons heading into 2008, his current 5.48 ERA is absolutely headed for a correction. And the fact that he lost to the Rangers in Arlington earlier creates even more spark. But Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley were major factors in that game, and their absence severely hampers the Texas attack here.
Meanwhile has anyone pitched better without any notice at all than Scott Feldman? He shows up with just a single win beside his name this season, but has worked at least six full innings in eight of his nine starts, while going five in the other. He has worked to a solid 4.31 tune in that span despite being in a hitter?s park for five of the outings, and he shows the stuff to be able to compete here. Instead of the Arlington heat it is the air conditioning of Minute Maid Park, where these two teams were sitting at 2-1 into the bottom of the 8th inning last night, despite each having a weaker starter on the mound.
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Texas Rangers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
9
-158 100
9
-157 -115
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals Jun 25 2008 7:10PM
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Your pick will be graded at: -153 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* ANGELS over WASHINGTON
In the current edition of ?Thinking Outside the Box?, we deal with Tim Redding?s rather remarkable season to-date, and here we have an outstanding opportunity to step in. We not only get the much better team, starting pitcher, and bullpen at a fair price, but also great timing as well.
Redding has been a a slightly above average pitcher this season, with a 4.12 ERA against a difficult schedule. But despite pitching for arguably the worst offense in the game, he has managed to pitch the Nationals to a 13-3 record in his 16 starts. In all other games they are 17-46. What are the odds of a 17-46 team going 13-3 behind a guy working to a 4.12 tune? Rather astronomical. And in the current run its has stretched the laws of baseball and logic even more - Redding has worked at a 5.71 clip over his last six starts, yet Washington won every game. What all that does is buy us about a quarter in terms of where this line really should be.
The Angels provide us with the ideal opponent to take advantage. Their 26-12 road tally is by far the best in the Major?s, and what we saw from Ervin Santana in his last outing at Philadelphia was exactly what we needed to see. Off of a stretch in which he had lost his way a bit, facing a tough offense in a hitter?s park could have been a nightmare for him. His major problem through his career has been giving up home runs on the road, and the Phillies are #2 at hitting balls into the seats. But Santana stifled them without an earned run over seven innings, with a dominating ratio of nine strikeouts vs. only two hits allowed. It also creates something most unexpected - this deep into the season, his road ERA is actually lower than his numbers from Anaheim. That means a great deal of confidence against a lineup that he can dominate, and with yesterday?s easy win bringing the entire bullpen in rested and ready the Nationals are hard-pressed to produce anything at all here.
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Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-155
8
-120 -152
8
-115
Orioles (RL) at Cubs (RL) Jun 25 2008 8:05PM
PICK: Cubs (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CHICAGO Run Line over BALTIMORE
There have not been many disappointing days for the Cubs at Wrigley this season - a 32-9 run pretty much sums it up. But Tuesday was such a game. They produced more base-runners than the Orioles, and had the only two home runs in the game. But what had been a solid defense hiccuped and allowed three unearned runs, and they failed to score despite having the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 9th. That is the kind of win that not only stings, but also creates a bounce-back spark, and we believe that pieces are in place for that to happen in a major way. So on a warm evening with the wind in a favorable direction, we will call for the blowout here.
Asking for the Cubs to get a margin in general is not asking much - 24 of those 32 Wrigley wins have come by two runs or more. And of those they did not break open, several were played under colder temperatures with the wind blowing in. Now an offense that has tattooed left-handers this season gets to face the pedestrian offerings of Brian Burres, and Burres is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this setting. First we get value from his 6-5 personal record this season, but that carries no meaning. He has worked to an ugly 5.24 in compiling that mark, and his last two outings are a good example of the kind of luck that he has had - he lasted only 11.2 innings, allowing nine runs on 15 hits, including three home runs, and five walks. Yet he walked way with a ?W? each time. And over his last five starts it has been a hideous 10.27 ERA and 2.15 WHIP, with nine home runs allowed over 23.2 innings. Yet he actually got tagged with only one defeat in that span. He does not have the stuff to get the ball past quality hitters, with only 39 strikeouts in 80.2 innings, and in five of his last six starts has had more fly-ball outs than ground-outs. He is an awful matchup for this particular environment, and with the best arms from the Baltimore bullpen getting pushed to extremes last night (33 pitches for Jim Johnson and 30 for George Sherrill), the latter innings have a chance to be just as ugly.
The flip side of the value equation is Ted Lilly?s 7-5/4.71 in the pitching forms, which makes him look rather average. Those numbers do not tell the true story of his current stuff. He indeed got off to a bad start this season, but it has been a 7-2/3.53 over his last 11 starts, with a dominating ratio of 69 strikeouts vs. only 57 hits allowed in that span. The Cubs have won his last six Wrigley starts by a combined 19 runs, and the bullpen is also well-positioned behind him to handle the end-game. But we expect those bullpen innings to merely be mop-up, as they protect what should be a big lead.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Jeff Scott Sports
2 Unit Play
Houston/ Texas Under 9.5: The Under is 8-1 in Feldmans last 9 starts on grass and 5-1 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, while the Under is 21-5 in Astros last 26 during game 2 of a series and 6-0 in Oswalts last 6 starts vs. Rangers. Roy Oswalt is beginning to turn the corner back to respecability as he has posted a 3.24 ERA in his last 5 starts, including a 2.84 ERA in his last 2 home starts. Roy's home games have been a bit high scoring, but his cames overall have put up 9.1 rpg, in cluding 7.8 rpg in his last 5 starts. The Astro's have had problems scoring of late as they are averaging just 3.1 rpg in their last 8 games, plus they have averaged just 3.5 rpg in interleague play. The Stros scopre over 5 rpg for Roy, but overall they only put 4.1 rpg on the board for him. The Rangers come in averaging 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games and 5.2 rpg o the road, but they have problems scoring with Scott Feldman on the mound as they have put up just 3.8 rpg in his overall starts, including a measly 2.5 rpg in his road starts and 3.4 rpg in his night starts. Scott's games average 9.1 rpg overall, 8 rpg on the road and 8.2 rpg at night. Scott has been rocked on the road, posting a 7.33 ERA, but he is facing a struggling offense and should enable him to keep the score down, while a rejuvinated Roy Oswalt should be able to keep a Texas team, that might be without Hamiton from scoring more than 3 or 4 runs. Last night these 2 teams put up 7 runs and I see that same total being scored tonight.
2 Unit Play
Houston/ Texas Under 9.5: The Under is 8-1 in Feldmans last 9 starts on grass and 5-1 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, while the Under is 21-5 in Astros last 26 during game 2 of a series and 6-0 in Oswalts last 6 starts vs. Rangers. Roy Oswalt is beginning to turn the corner back to respecability as he has posted a 3.24 ERA in his last 5 starts, including a 2.84 ERA in his last 2 home starts. Roy's home games have been a bit high scoring, but his cames overall have put up 9.1 rpg, in cluding 7.8 rpg in his last 5 starts. The Astro's have had problems scoring of late as they are averaging just 3.1 rpg in their last 8 games, plus they have averaged just 3.5 rpg in interleague play. The Stros scopre over 5 rpg for Roy, but overall they only put 4.1 rpg on the board for him. The Rangers come in averaging 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games and 5.2 rpg o the road, but they have problems scoring with Scott Feldman on the mound as they have put up just 3.8 rpg in his overall starts, including a measly 2.5 rpg in his road starts and 3.4 rpg in his night starts. Scott's games average 9.1 rpg overall, 8 rpg on the road and 8.2 rpg at night. Scott has been rocked on the road, posting a 7.33 ERA, but he is facing a struggling offense and should enable him to keep the score down, while a rejuvinated Roy Oswalt should be able to keep a Texas team, that might be without Hamiton from scoring more than 3 or 4 runs. Last night these 2 teams put up 7 runs and I see that same total being scored tonight.