Wednesday Service Plays 7/232/08

[the duke]

Comps

Stephen Nover

San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds Jul 23, 2008 12:35PM

Cincinnati Reds -133

Greg Maddux is on the hill and he's not pitching at Petco Park. That's not good if you're the San Diego Padres.

Maddux hasn't won during his past 13 starts. He's been especially brutal on the road with a 6.27 ERA. He has allowed 24 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 27 1/3 innings.

Don't look for Maddux to get better pitching during the day at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Maddux has a 5.85 ERA there in six lifetime starts.

San Diego's middle relief has fallen apart. Respected set-up man Heath Bell has surrendered seven earned runs in his last three innings. Injuries and loss of confidence are really hurting San Diego. The Padres have dropped seven of their last eight games and 10 of their past 13.

Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is pitching much better than he did earlier in the year. He's won four in a row. He has given up just two earned runs during his last two home starts, spanning 14 innings.


Tony Weston

We?re switching gears a little here and heading back to the American League and looking at some AL East action between the Blue Jays and Orioles. Simply, tonight go with Baltimore at home.

The key difference in tonight?s game will be the pitching of scheduled Orioles pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, who is 6-7 with a 3.60 ERA this season. Guthrie is 3-3 with a 3.74 ERA at home, while Baltimore is 7-3 in his 10 home starts.

Also, Guthrie is 4-1 his last eight starts, while Baltimore is 6-3 in his last nine starts overall. Keep in mind that Guthrie has faced Toronto twice this year and has allowed only two earned runs in 14 innings of work as Baltimore split those two games.

Pencil in Guthrie as your starting pitcher and go with the Orioles at home tonight.


3♦ ORIOLES (On a 1-5♦ Scale)


Matt Rivers

Wednesday take the money with the Phillies

Brett Myers is back from his minor league stint after the dreadful recent pitching and can go one of two ways here. He can get drilled against a solid New York lineup or the righty could have figured things out and get back to that All-Star form. I'm banking on something closer to the latter as the minors can be humbling and help make a man which Myers has proven to be throughout his solid career as both a starter and a closer.

Both offenses are powerful and should get their licks in as Myers and John Maine should have their hands full so even if I am a little off about Myers it's not like we will certainly lose.

Billy Wagner is not healthy and with the lights out Brad Lidge on our side we certainly are not at a disadvantage in the bullpen category which is fine with me.

In the end this is a very very winnable game that will certainly depend on which Myers shows up. All in all to get Howard, Rollins, Utley, Burrell and the Fightin' Phils plus a little bit in this rivalry spot is certainly worth a play.


Larry Cook

MLB | Jul 23

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

New York Mets -125

3* on New York Mets -125
(Listing Maine and Myers)

Following a terrible blown save against the Phillies last night, the Mets will respond in a big way Wednesday. John Maine?s favorite opponent is Philadelphia as you can see by his career numbers against them. Maine is 4-0 with a 2.36 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies. He is just the guy that can turn it around for New York tonight. Brett Myers is 0-1 with an 8.62 ERA over his last 3 starts for the Phillies. The Phillies are just 1-8 in Myers? nine road starts this season. Bet New York at home.



John Martin

MLB | Jul 23
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

New York Yankees -149

1 Unit on New York Yankees -149
(Listing Mussina and Perkins)

The Yankees have come to life in this series with Minnesota, outscoring the Twins 20-6 in two home victories. Look for the Yankees to cap off the 3-game sweep of the Twins tonight with Mike Mussina taking the ball. Mussina has recorded 12 wins this season in large part to his revived 3.49 ERA. Mussina is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA through his last 3 starts for the Yankees. New York is aiming for their sixth straight victory tonight and Mussina is not about to let them down. The Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 home meetings with the Twins. Glen Perkins was tagged for 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings back against the Yankees back on May 30, 2008. Perkins is no match for Mussina and a hot Yankees? lineup in this one. Cash in with the New York as the favorite.


Steve Janus

MLB | Jul 23
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds -130

The Reds are hot at home and hot when they are favored. They are 6-2 in their last 8 when favored at home and 31-13 in their last 44 games as favorites regardless of the venue. Cincinnati's starter, Bronson Arroyo, has also been impressive at home. The Reds are on a 10-2 run when he pitches as a favorite in Cincinnati. San Diego is just 3-14 in their last 17 games against a right-handed starter and they've won only 1 of their last 6 games on the road against a team with a winning record.

 

[the duke]

Comps


Black Widow

MLB | Jul 23
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona D-Backs

Chicago Cubs -110

1* on Chicago Cubs -110
(List Lilly only)

Chicago has to be sick and tired of losing to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They got beat in the postseason last year and their struggles have continued into this season, losing the first two games of this 3-game series. Chicago will not be suffering a sweep to the Diamondbacks with Ted Lilly on the hill Wednesday. Lilly has been at his best on the road, going 4-3 with a solid 3.78 ERA. Chicago is 48-24 (+15.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The odds makers are right on the money listing the Cubs as a favorite here, knowing there?s no way in hell this NL powerhouse will get swept by Arizona today. Take the Cubs on the Money Line.




Atlanta at FLORIDA (+105) Sports Gambling Hotline

Tonight we go with Florida over Atlanta.

Last night, the Braves were limited to just 1 hit against 4 Florida pitchers, to drop to 16-33 on the road for the year. Tonight's starter Tim Hudson has not had much luck in his highway starts this season, as the righty stands at 2-6 away from home with an over 4 ERA.

Ricky Nolasco is coming off a home loss to the Phils, but this kid has been very overpowering at time this year. We expect Nolasco to mow down this lineup that only mustered 1 measly hit last night.

Florida is right there in the thick of the NL East chase, and they have won 3 of 5 at home against Atlanta this year.

Play on the Marlins to take the rubber game tonight.

2♦ FLORIDA



Philadelphia (+120) at NY METS Bobby Maxwell

Today we've got another comp winner coming on the Phillies as they take on the Mets in New York.

Philadelphia rallied for a six-run ninth inning on Tuesday and beat the Mets 8-6, snapping New York's three game winning streak over the Phillies. Tonight we're going to go with the Phillies to make it two in a row behind the pitching of Brett Myers (3-9, 5.84).

Myers has really struggled this season but he's got good stuff and has dominated the Mets since 2004. Philadelphia is 6-3 in his last nine starts against New York and he's held them to three runs or less in four of his last five outings against them.

John Maine (8-7, 4.22) is on the mound for the Mets and he hasn't lasted long in his recent outings, not lasting six innings in any of his last four starts. On Friday he gave up five runs on five hits in 4.2 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Reds. He's faced the Phillies twice this season and given up a combined four runs in 11.2 innings and the Mets have won both.

The Phillies are 10-2 in their last 12 as an underdog and 9-2 as a road 'dog. Philadelphia is 4-0 the last four times Myers has started at Shea Stadium in New York and the Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 on the Mets' home turf.

We'll take the plus-money with Myers and the Phillies tonight in New York. Play Philadelphia.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA



Minnesota at NY YANKEES (-150) Karl Garrett

Can't go against the Yankees right now, as the Yanks have won their last 5, have won 9 in a row at home, and are now 18-3 at home since 2002 against the Twins in the Bronx.

Glen Perkins has been steady for the Twins, but the Yankees have already seen him once, getting to him for 5 runs in 4 innings, as Perkins absorbed the loss.

Mike Mussina has been stellar this month, going 2-0 in his three July starts, allowing just 3 runs over 18 innings of work. Mussina was the winner against Perkins back in that May start at the Metrodome, as he worked 6 innings of 2 run ball.

New York's offense is certainly awake right now, and the G-Man is going to lay the run-and-a-half, and take the Yankees on the RUN LINE.

3♦ YANKEES -1 1/2 RUNS

 

[the duke]

Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (971) TEX Rangers and (972) CHW White Sox. Take "Over". The Rangers aren't exactly the kind of team you want to make your major league debut against, especially as a pitcher. Clayton Richard does just that here on Wednesday as hegets his first major league start. It's been a meteoric rise for Richard, who started the season at AA Birmingham and then moved to Triple-A Charlotte before getting the call to the majors here on Wednesday. He will face the best hitting team in baseball, the Rangers. The Rangers lead the Majors with 547 runs scored this season. They send Kevin Millwood to the mound who has been less than impressive. Millwood is 6-6 on the year with a 5.23 ERA, but has lost his last two starts allowing 10 earned runs and 21 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. We expect a lot of runs here on Wednesday and go with the OVER!!




Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (971) TEX Rangers and (972) CHW White Sox. Take "(972) CHW White Sox".
Clayton Richard makes his debut for the White Sox Wednesday, and that in itself is a real shocker. Richard hadn't shown anything of note since being drafted back in 2005, and was not even among the top 30 prospects in a less than sensational White Sox farm system heading into this season. But Richard has had a phenomenal year. He was much better than his 6-6 AA ledger might indicate. Since moving up to AAA, Richard is 6-0 with some dynamite peripherals, and he's gotten more than two groundball outs for every one in the air. The lefty is not a big strikeout pitcher, but evidently his sinker is working beautifully. A couple cautionary notes on Richard. Nerves can always be an issue for a first-timer, and I don't like the fact he hasn't started since July 9. But the Rangers are mired in a funk presently, and Kevin Millwood is getting drilled. So I'll give the debuting Richard and the White Sox the vote here.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Brian Marshall

July 23, 2008

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners

Plays On: Seattle Mariners (-140)

Game Analyses: The Seattle Mariners should be able to beat the Boston Red Sox in Wednesday's MLB game.

The Boston Red Sox will be lead by starting pitcher Clay Buchholz. Clay Buchholz has been struggling this season. In fact, Clay Buchholz has a 5.88 ERA on the season. In addition, Clay Buchholz has a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Clay Buchholz having another bad game today.

The Seattle Mariners will be lead by starting pitcher Felix Hernandez. Felix Hernandez has been pitching well this season which is shown by his 2.95 ERA on the season. We see Felix Hernandez pitching another great game today.

The Seattle Mariners are 11-5 in their last 16 meetings against the Boston Red Sox (when playing in Seattle), and should be able to get another win today!

Take the Seattle Mariners!


John Fina

July 23, 2008

Selection: Washington/San Francisco Over 9 (-110)

Reason: Put us down on the Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants Over 9 for our Free MLB Selection on Wednesday. Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Washington Nationals do battle with the San Francisco Giants. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Washington Nationals Starting Pitcher (Colin Balester) has a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts, while San Francisco Giants Starting Pitcher (Kevin Correia) has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been struggling as of late. To say the least, we should see many runs scored today!

Take the Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants Over 9!


Tony Mathews

July 23, 2008

Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Selection: Minnesota/New York Under 9.5 (-110)

Explanation: We expect a low-scoring game as the Minnesota Twins face-off against the New York Yankees in Wednesday's MLB contest.

The Minnesota Twins will use starting pitcher Glen Perkins. Glen Perkins has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Glen Perkins has a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Glen Perkins pitching another great game today.

The New York Yankees will use starting pitcher Mike Mussina. Mike Mussina has also been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Mike Mussina has a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Mike Mussina pitching another great game today.

The bottom line, we should see a low-scoring game today!

Take the Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees Under 9.5!

 

[the duke]

Comps

Nelly

Cleveland + over Los Angeles

After a brilliant start to his season John Lackey has not been sharp in his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .325 against Lackey in that span and his ERA is 6.75. The Angels have managed to win two of those three games but Lackey has allowed five home runs and he faces a Cleveland team that is playing much better than most people think. The Indians have thrown up the white flag with the trade of C.C. Sabathia and injuries have devastated a team that was expected to contend this season. Still Cleveland won four in a row to close the first half of the season and has had success since winning a series in Seattle and taking the first game in Los Angeles. Cleveland is averaging over six runs per game in the last ten contests while hitting close to .280. The Angels are not a great hitting team against left-handed pitching and two key right-handed bats will be out of the lineup with Torii Hunter and Mike Napoli sitting out. Aaron Laffey has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts and his 3.61 ERA on the season is very solid. Cleveland has actually won four of the last six road meetings in this series and with big underdog status on Wednesday afternoon this Tribe are worth a look.



Marc Lawrence

Play On: Houston w/Moehler vs Snell

Note: After opening the season on a strong note with three straight wins, Pittsburgh's Ian Snell has fallen on hard times, dropping 8 of his last 10 team starts. That's what happens to pitchers who sport a 7.71 ERA on the road. That almost four runs worse than his home ERA (3.86) this season. With Snell 2-5 with a 6.94 ERA in day games and Brian Moehler 5-2 with a 3.24 home ERA this season, look for the Astros to come up shooting here this afternoon.




James Patrick

Blue Jays vs. Orioles 7:05 p.m. est.
The O?s are a poor 7-19 in Wednesday action and the Blue Jays have captured 4 of the past 5 meetings with Baltimore and Toronto starter Burnett is 5-1 versus the Orioles. Our Wednesday complimentary selection is #979 Toronto Blue Jays.



Great Lakes Sports

Major League Baseball

Philadelphia at New York Mets 7:10PM EST

Play on: New York Mets with Maine

The New York Mets are 7-0 their last seven games as a home favorite, and 4-0 their last four home games vs right hand starting pitchers. The New York Mets is also 11-2 in their last 13 games, and 12-2 in starting pitching Maine last 14 Wednesday starts. We look for the New York Mets to grab the home win tonight.




Greg Daraban

955 Los Angeles (49-50) at 956 Colorado (43-58)

Kuroda 5-6 ERA 3.79 vs Rusch 2-1 ERA 4.41
Monday LA 16-10 Tuesday Colorado won 10-1
Dodgers have played very very well in this park
since the Rockies moved from Mile High.

Take 955 LA Dodgers



Alex Smart

Seattle Mariners (-123)
Wed Jul 23 '08 4:40p

The Boston Red Sox have taken the first two games of this series against their hosts tonight the Seattle Mariners. I am predicting a third straight victory will not occur in this spot. The BoSox previous to their mini win streak, had lost 10 of their L/12 road games, and have a strong possibility of adding to those negative numbers , as they send the struggling Clay Buchholz (2-5, 5.88 ERA) to the hill. The young right hander has been every inconsistent this season, failing to make it past the 6th inning in his L/5 starts and has been battered in recent outings, giving up 21 ERs in his L/17 innings of work . It must be noted that the BoSox have lost 7 straight road games when Buchholz starts.

Meanwhile, the Mariners will return fire with up and coming pitching star Felix Hernandez(7-6, 2.95 ERA). After a slow beginning to his campaign the right hander ,has allowed more than 3 ERs only once in his L/10 starts and is 5-1 along with a minuscule 1.84 ERA in his L/7 starts. The Mariners are also 4-1 in his last 5 starts against the Red Sox , including a gem at Fenway Park, where he allowed just one hit in a shutout win. Considering the BoSox are 4-17 on the road against a pitcher with a 4.00 ERA or better this season, it will be an easy decision to back Hernandez to bring us home some dough on the moneyline.

Play on the Seattle Mariners

 

[the duke]

Hondo

The Phillies were heroic for Hondo out at the Lame Duck Dump last night, surging past the Meta mucils to stop the bleeding and elevate the earnings to 730 crandalls.

Today, he's going to Kansas City, Kansas City here he comes for a 10-unit investment on Galarraga and the Tigers.



Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Twins Tuesday night.

Wednesday it's the Pirates and White Sox. The surplus is 65 sirignanos.

 

[the duke]

ARMVIN SPORTS

HOUSTON ASTROS -123

KANSAS CITY ROYALS -107

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall


Baltimore -115 over Toronto--I'm thinking Guthrie here over AJ Burnett. The O's are good at Camden, while the Jays are 10 under .500 away from T-Town

MARINERS -135 over Boston--He'll outpitch Clay Buchholz in the Emerald City

LACKEY -170 at home vs Cleveland--He's just so much better than Laffey it's not even funny

SanFran -120 over Washington--Flip a coin--they both suck. The pitchers in this one Correia (Giants) and Balester (Nats) are both horrible--go light !

CUBS -110 over Diamondbacks--I'm on Lilly over Davis in the desert.

St.Louis +115 over Milwaukee--I say Looper gets the upset over Sabathia

 

[the duke]

Stu Finer

Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

What is there not to like about the Rays here tonight on a Wednesday afternoon? Sure this team ended the first half on a tough note but that happens to all baseball teams over the course of a season. Did you think they weren?t going to have a losing streak? Did you think they were just going to run away with the AL East?

James Shields has been great this season. You don?t have to look much further than his last start to see how well he has performed this season. He pitched against fellow right-handed power arm A.J. Burnett.

Shields went out there and threw seven innings of just one run ball. In those seven innings he allowed just four hits and two walks. Shields has 104 strikeouts this season to just 24 walks. What else do you need to know?

Tampa Bay Rays (-)

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

The Yankees have finally turned things on in the last week. They have come out and posted an impressive record since the break. Tonight they actually send their most reliable starter to the hill. Who would have thought that Mike Mussina could have won 20 games this season? Well that is possible.

Mike is 12-6 on the season and he has earned it. Mike has logged 113 innings on the season and has only issued 16 walks. 16 walks in 113 innings is a fantastic ratio. He also has gotten a lot more swings and misses. This season Mike already has 74 strikeouts.

The Yankees will continue their winning ways at home.

New York Yankees (-)

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox

We like the White Sox t get the job done at home tonight against the Rangers. The Rangers are a team that depends just on offense. If any of you out there pay attention, you know that hitting comes and goes during the course of a season. It especially comes and goes for the Texas Rangers.

When they talk about the effect of the ?Dog Days? of summer, they are really taking about the Texas Rangers. Playing thirty or forty games in 110 degree weather does not help a team stay locked in. Sure this game is on the road but their offense has already begun to slow down.

The Rangers are just an average team on the road. The White Sox on the other hand are more than fifteen games over the .500 mark. Look for them behind Clayton Richard to get the job done.

The Sox pounded the ball last night and the Rangers pitching staff is a six run inning waiting to happen.

Chicago White Sox (-)

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Love this line tonight for the Royals. Any time you can get the team?s best pitcher at home at this type of number you have to jump all over it. I don?t care if he was going up against Roger Clemens in 1990. It is just too good of a value. That is what this is about value.

Zack was hit hard in his last start but so what? He is not going to be perfect all season. At home this season though he has been perfect while throwing gem after gem. Zack is 3-0 at home with an ERA under 2.40. Does it get much better than that? We don?t think so, the Royals have showed a ton of fight this season. At home, at this price we are with them.

Kansas City Royals (-)

Cleveland Indians at LA Angels

Sometimes there are games that you look at, and think to yourself something must be up. There must be a reason why this game looks too easy. Tonight this Indians at Angels game is one of those. You look and think there is no way the Angels lose behind their ace. Guess what? Go with your gut.

Listen Vegas is going to make you pay for it. You aren?t going to get Lackey for cheap, especially at home. Especially now that the Angels are a 60 win baseball club. Yes they have a better record now than the Red Sox. They actually just came off a sweep against those same Red Sox this season, to stake their claim a top the American league.

Lackey has lost just two games all season that includes just one loss in his building. This guy has 72 strikeouts to just 17 walks. Anything more you want from an ace?

LA Angels (-)

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners

I am sure many of you out there are thinking how in the world can the Mariners be favored? How in the world does a team like this actually lay wood against the Red Sox. Two words for you on that notion?. Felix Hernandez. This is a guy worth every penny here tonight. This is a guy that shuts down the best line-ups in baseball with regularity.

How about his last start? Six innings just four hits allowed to along with eight strikeouts. That is what an ace goes out and does. How about his last start against the Boston Red Sox? He went in to Fenway and shut-out the Sox. You are telling me he can?t shut down this line-up in Safeco field? Sure he can.

His last start against the Sox he went six innings and allowed six hits and no runs. Look for a similar line tonight. The Mariners will push across enough runs against the Sox young starter.

Seattle Mariners (-)

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Jeremy Guthrie doesn?t get any credit. For a guy with his numbers he sure does fly under the radar. This is a pitcher that hasn?t pitched well just this season, but since he has been a given a chance to start. In 2007 he started 26 games and posted an ERA of close to 3.50. That included logging a 175 innings while allowing just 165 hits.

This season Guthrie has once again been doing his job. In his last ten outings he has allowed more than four runs just one time. One time! He is a starter that knows the importance of battling and going deep in games. Just take a look at his last six starts. All six innings or more.

A.J. Burnett is a little up and down for our liking. He pitched a great game last time out, but still gave up the key hit when it mattered. Give us the Orioles tonight as this game will be a low scoring affair.

Baltimore Orioles (-)


National League


San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

Make no mistake about it Bronson Arroyo is auditioning for another job. There is a lot of talk that the New York Yankees are looking out Bronson. See teams have been looking at him for quite a while. He had one of the worst all-time starts though about a month ago. On June 24, 2008 he went to Toronto and allowed eleven hits and ten runs in just one inning of work. Ouch! Does that not bloat the ERA?

Since then the kid has been pitching great. He actually hasn?t lost a game since then. In fact he has won all four of his starts since then. In those four starts he has allowed a total of just eight runs. He also is coming off two big starts. Two starts that saw him beat first place teams. He shut down the Cubs and the Mets en route to two victories.

Cincinnati Reds (-)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros

We like the Astros to get back on track here tonight. After all can you trust the Pirates on the road? Even a die hard Pittsburgh Pirates fan would say they aren?t trust worthy. The Pirates are eight games under .500 on the season. That is respectable in a tough division. The only problem is they are seven games over .500 at home. Yes this team is a whopping 17-32 on the road.

The Pirates send arguably the worst road pitcher in all of baseball to the bump. This is a guy that everyone liked before the season. Where are all his supporters right now? Ian is 3-8 on the season with an ERA of 5.83. On the road Ian is 1-6 with an ERA of 7.71. On the road Ian is 1-6 with an ERA of 7.71. Yes folks we had to repeat those numbers, just so it can have that lasting effect. If you want to play the Pirates, be our guest but you are making a huge mistake. Houston Astros are the play.

Houston Astros (-)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

We are here once again. The Rockies are in a similar position this season just as they were during last season. The Rockies have struggled a lot this season. No matter what we can?t ignore tat fact. That fact is the main reason we get them so cheaply tonight. The Rockies are better than what they have shown.

Mr. Kuroda has been two totally different pitchers this season. Kuroda has been great at home. In fact he hasn?t lost a single game in Los Angeles. His record sits at a perfect 3-0 with an ERA of just 2.63.

A little different story on the road though. He is just 2-6 on the road this season with an ERA of 4.99. In just 52 innings he has given up 63 hits and a total of 34 runs. Those numbers won?t cut it against a Rockies team that can still mash.

Colorado Rockies (-)

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins

We like the Braves to bounce back here tonight. We told you two nights ago that the Braves would be able to knock off the Marlins in the first game of the series. Tonight we are telling you they will take care of business again.

It is a nice pitching match-up in Florida, but call us crazy we will still take our chances with Tim Hudson. Tim Hudson has been great this season. His name has gone under the radar all season. A lot has to do with the fact that the Braves have under-achieved.

Tim is 10-7 this season with an ERA of just 3.31. He just doesn?t allow base-runners. Only three out of every ten batters even get on base against him. We will take the road team in this NL East match-up.

Atlanta Braves (-)

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

How about the game between these two teams last night? This was a classic July contest. This was a game that may have changed the landscape of the entire NL East division. You had Johan Santana going for the Mets. The big 20 million dollar min, the big off-season hired gun. He faced off against Joe Blanton. Joe was making his first start in the NL and his first start for the Philadelphia Phillies.

To make a long story short the Mets collapsed. The Mets collapsed almost as bad in this game as they did last season. This was a team that was up 5-1 heading to the seventh inning. This was a team that was up 5-2 in the ninth inning. The Phillies then stunned the Mets and pounded out six runs on five hits.

We promise you that the momentum will carry over. It is still unknown if Billy Wagner will be unavailable tomorrow. Either way we like the Phillies in that spot. If Wagner pitches he won?t be 100 percent. If Wagner doesn?t pitch, well we all saw what their bull-pen was capable of. Look for the Phillies to start taking the NL East right by the throat.

Philadelphia Phillies (+)

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

C.C. Sabathia has really been great for the Brewers. He has already come to the NL Central and already picked up three wins. Sabathia has gone nine innings in both of his last start. All told C.C. has pitched 24 innings since coming over from Cleveland. He has allowed just five runs in those starts.

We just feel that those innings are going to catch-up with him. C.C. had dead arm issues earlier in the season and this is when those type of bumps and bruises arise. Throwing back to back complete games is something no pitcher outside of Roy Halladay is used to doing.

The Cardinals blew a big lead last night and you know they will step up tonight. The Cardinals want to protect their home field. Look for Looper to pick up the W here tonight.

St. Louis Cardinals (-)

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

We know the Cubs have been bad on the road this season. We aren?t going to ignore that fact, but can everyone say relax. This team is not fifteen games over .500. After all this team is still the best team in the National League. No they aren?t a great team, but they are a very good team.

The Cubs are such a balanced ball club. This is one of the few teams in the league to rank in the top ten in both offense and defense. The Cubs offense is the second best in all of baseball. The only offense that is better is the Texas Rangers and we all know what their pitching staff looks like.

The Cubs also have a team ERA of 3.83. That is an excellent number. Tonight with Ted Lilly on the mound they will show why they are the best team in the National League.

Chicago Cubs (-)

Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants

Somebody has to actually win this ball game folks. If there were ties in baseball we would predict that would occur in tonight?s game. As we said last night though, these two teams are almost equally as bad. One team struggles mightily on the road, the other team is the worst home team in all of a baseball.

There is something that people are ignoring though. Playing at home is still an advantage. When two teams are so close, when the line is so close you look for any little advantages you can obtain. One of those advantages tonight is the fact the Giants are playing in their own ball park. They will win his game tonight.

San Francisco Giants (-)

 

[the duke]

Comps


Carlo Campanella

Game: Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins Jul 23 2008 7:10PM

Prediction: Florida Marlins

Reason: Atlanta favored on the road at Florida on Wednesday, but offer very little value based on their 6-15 record as road Favorites between -100 and -150 this season. Things look even worse in this situation as they start Hudson, who's already 0-6 when starting on the road as a Favorite below -150 this year! Backing the value with Florida at home, as they've won 6 of their last 9 games and own a solid 28-22 home mark.

7* Play On Florida


Jimmy The Moose

Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Jul 23 2008 7:05PM

Prediction: over

Reason: Toronto has played the over in 4 straight and the over is a profitable 8-3 in their last 11 games. The over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as an underdog. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 road games. The over is 12-3 in their last 15 divisional games. The over is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games and the over is 21-7-1 in their last 30 games overall. The over is 7-1-1 in Baltimore's last 9 divisional games. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 home games. The over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.


Lee Kostroski

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros Jul 23, 2008 2:05PM

Houston Astros -130

Houston (Moehler) - over Pittsburgh (Snell) 2:05 PM

Brian Moehler has allowed one or fewer runs in four of the last six games and his numbers at home are excellent with a 3.59 ERA despite pitching in a high scoring ballpark. In home games opposing batters are hitting just .235 against him and Moehler beat the Pirates earlier this month. Houston's bullpen does not have great numbers but the unit has a lower ERA, more saves, and fewer blown saves than the relief corps for Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 16-41 in the last 57 road games and Pittsburgh owns a near MLB-worst 16-32 road record on the season. The Pirates are actually 18-45 in Houston over the last several years as this has been a tough place to play. The Pirates have lost six of the last seven road series, getting swept in three of those sets. Pittsburgh did manage to win the first game of this series but they were fortunate to get the opportunity with a blown save opportunity from the Astros.

A few years ago Ian Snell was one of the rising stars in the NL but he has taken a major turn for the worse this season. Snell is 1-6 in his road starts with a 7.71 ERA. Snell has walked 58 batters in just 100 innings pitched this season and Snell has been tagged for four or more runs in six of his last nine starts. Snell has not won a start on the road since early April so this should be a good situation for the Astros to deliver a win today.

 

[the duke]

SAPKOWSKI

Best bet:0-1 (Tampa "L")
Texas vs. Chi. White Sox over 10

Premium
(65-41 L106, Yesterday 0-1 (NY Mets"L",)
Texas vs. Chi. White Sox over 5 in 1st 5 IN

Free picks
(61-41 L102, 0-2 Yesterday (Minnesota Twins"L",St Louis Cardinals"L")
Cincinnati
Philadelphia vs. NY Mets over 10

His 6-1 in totals so fare with 2-0 last time when posted

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISOR

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee (57-43) at St. Louis (57-45)

The Brewers trot out recently acquired left hander CC Sabathia (9-8, 3.51 ERA) in the third game of a four-game series against the N.L. Central Division rival Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee, which beat St. Louis 4-3 on Tuesday, has won six straight games (including five in a row on the road) and is on further runs of 13-3 against winning teams and 15-4 in division play.

St. Louis, which will counter with right-hander Braden Looper (9-7, 4.60), had won five straight games before dropping the first two of this series. The Cards are 0-5 in Looper?s last five starts against winning teams.

The Brewers have won six of their last seven against St. Louis, including the last four in a row.

Since being traded from Cleveland earlier this month, Sabathia has been sterling, winning all three starts, pitching two consecutive complete games and posting a 1.88 ERA in 24 innings. In a 9-1 win at San Francisco on Friday, he allowed just four hits (one solo homer) in going the distance. Sabathia has gone at least seven innings in 12 of his last 14 starts, with four complete games.

The Cardinals are 3-3 in Looper?s last six starts, but he?s gone 1-2 with three no-decisions in that stretch, lasting just three innings Friday after allowing six runs on eight hits in an 11-7 win over San Diego.

Sabathia is 2-4 with a 3.20 ERA in eight road starts this season, and he?s 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis. Looper, meanwhile, is 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA in 11 home starts this year and is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 31 appearances (five starts) against Milwaukee.

The over is on an 8-3 tear for Milwaukee and has cashed in four of its last six on the highway. But the under for St. Louis is on runs of 6-0 against winning teams and 5-1 against left-handers, and the under is 7-3-1 in 11 meetings this season between these two teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE


Chicago (58-42) at Arizona (50-50)

The Cubs, with the best record in the National League, will give the ball to southpaw Ted Lilly (9-6, 4.49 ERA) as they try to avoid a three-game sweep against the N.L. West-leading Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Chicago, which dropped the series opener 2-0 Monday and got belted 9-2 Tuesday, has lost five of its last six and is in a 5-13 funk in its last 18 road games.

Arizona, which will send left-hander Doug Davis (3-4, 4.14) to the mound, is just 10-23 in its last 33 games against teams with a winning record. But the Diamondbacks have had the Cubs? number, going 27-7 in the last 34 home games against Chicago and 18-8 in the last 26 clashes overall.

The Cubs have lost in Lilly?s last three starts, after winning five in a row behind the 32-year-old. On Friday, Lilly got a no-decision, allowing just one run on six hits in seven innings, but getting no help offensively in a 2-1 loss at Houston.

The D-Backs have also lost three in a row behind Davis, who is 1-1 with five no-decisions in his last seven starts. He lasted just three innings Friday against the Dodgers, giving up five runs on five hits in an 8-7 home loss.

Lilly is 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he?s 1-2 with a 2.74 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Arizona. Davis is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA in seven home starts this year, and he?s 7-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 13 career starts against Chicago.

The under is 38-17-3 for the Cubs in their last 58 games as a chalk, and the total has gone low in four of Davis? last five home starts for Arizona. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on a 7-2 spree at Chase Field and is 9-4 in the last 12 meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[the duke]

Steve Merril

Daytime Over/Under Top Play!
Premium Play
29-13 MLB run continues with the strongest Daytime Over/Under winner for Wednesday afternoon - ready to CRUSH THE LINE!
$20.00

Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals Under 9.5/-115

 

[the duke]

CHARLIES SPORTS


500* Atlanta @ Florida under 8'

30* Cincinnati-135

20* Kansas City-105

20* White Sox-125

10* San Francisco-120

10* Milwaukee-110 free play

 

[MLBKING]

Insider Sports Report

St. Louis -135 over Milwaukee (MLB)

 

[MLBKING]

WILD BILL

Padres +130 (5 units)
Pirates +115 (5 units)
Dodgers +100 (5 units)
Florida +105 (5 units)
Over 8 Florida-Braves (5 units)
Mets -135 (5 units)
Brewers -120 (5 units)
Cubs +100 (5 units)
Nationals +110 (5 units)
Tampa -170 (5 units)
Yankees -145 (5 units)
Under 9 1/2 Twins-Yankees (5 units)
Texas +105 (5 units)
Detroit +105 (5 units)
Angels -165 (5 units)
Jays +110 (5 units)

 

[MLBKING]

Dwayne Bryant
12:40 PM ET
MLB
Oakland A's (Smith) at Tampa Bay Rays (Shields)
Tampa Bay Rays (Listed Pitchers) -170

It has been more than three months since the Tampa Bay Rays lost two in a row at home and they should be plenty motivated after losing to the A's last night, 8-1. James Shields has been great at home, posting a 2.05 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .246 OOBP (Rays are 10-1). Smith has struggled lately for Oakland, posting a 6.14 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and .420 OOBP in his last three starts.
Take Tampa Bay/Shields over Oakland/Smith.

2:05 PM ET
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates (Snell) at Houston Astros (Moehler)
Houston Astros (Listed Pitchers) -128

Houston should be able to avoid a home sweep by the Pirates, who are just 13-42 at Minute Maid Park. Pittsburgh's Ian Snell has been dreadful on the road, going 1-6 with a 7.71 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and .404 OOBP. Brian Moehler has been solid at home for Houston, sporting a 3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .303 OOBP in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Moehler (1.16 WHIP, .286 OOBP) is in better form than Snell (1.64 WHIP, .364 OOBP) when comparing their last three starts.
Take Houston/Moehler over Pittsburgh/Snell.

 

[the duke]

EZWINNERS

MLB

5 STAR: (974) KANSAS CITY (-$106) over Detroit
(Listing Greinke only)
(Risking $530 to win $500)
1:10PM Central Time

2 STAR: (980) BALTIMORE (-$105) over Toronto
(Listing Guthrie only)
(Risking $210 to win $200)
6:05PM Central Time

2 STAR: (958) FLORIDA (+$106) over Atlanta
(Listing Nolasco only)
(Risking $200 to win $212)
6:10PM Central Time

2 STAR: OVER 9.5 (-$105) Pittsburgh @ Houston
(Listing Snell and Moehler)
(Risking $210 to win $200)
1:05PM Central Time

2 STAR: OVER 9 (+$100) Philadelphia @ NY Mets
(Listing Myers and Maine)
(Risking $100 to win $100)
6:10PM Central Time

 

[the duke]

Vernon Croy

Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St Louis Cardinals (ML - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Play
Play: Money Line: -142 Milwaukee Brewers

20 Unit MLB Bookie Buster of the Week
Milwaukee Brewers

20 Units, Take Milwaukee ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Brewers are a red hot 6-0 over their last 6 games. The Cards opponents are hitting .306 as a team against them over their last 7 games while averaging 6.3 rpg and Braden Looper (9-7, 4.60) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.75. Looper has allowing 22 hits over just 16 innings including 9 homeruns and it won't get any easier for him tonight against this potent Brewers line-up that is averaging 5.7 rpg this season. Looper is just 2-3 lifetime against the Brewers with an ERA of 6.33 and I look for him to struggle again tonight after giving up 7 hits and 4 earned runs in his last outing against the Brewers while striking out just 1 batter. Take the Brewers as my MLB Bookie Buster of the Week.

 

[the duke]

ROCCO SPACAMURO

100* Yankees